SJonesWX

the cirrus smells lovely this time of year

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Href mean solid 4-6”

 

so no double digits?

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I agree with this, models are a tool not meant to be taken as gospel. This is why I ignore those 10:1 ratio maps. I am trying to analyze the dynamics and temp profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere to make my forecasts, which I wasn’t doing last month, and it did lead to some improvement but I clearly still have a long way to go before becoming a competent forecaster. However there is no excuse for a model to shift 50 miles east in one run this close to the event, especially with the atmospheric drivers in place.

this happens literally every storm. shit, some of them swing 200 miles. it happens. Deal with it.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What does that mean exactly  ha

...seriously curious there, what constitutes canceling of winter, in a discrete, comprehensively intelligible definition.

I think most would agree that it is cooler now that it will be in July.  That is acceptance that it is, in fact, winter.

yeah, i don't think you are going to get that here.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I can tell you what you can do with the blocking.

right there with you.

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Hmm, go figure, seasonal flu levels are at historically low levels.  Wonder why that is, maybe the virus can't spread due to mandatory mask wearing, social distancing, and better hygiene.  Crazy! 

is it possible that seasonal flu cases are being characterized as covid cases?

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We take

the rich get richer. the poor get poorer, the poorer get the shaft

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Another factor in me leaning towards a higher impact event is the pattern we are in. We are in a full fledged La Niña pattern with a cold Canada and SE ridge brining well above normal temps to the southern states. With the SE ridge in place this storm can only go so far south. In this type of pattern I have no problem with the models having the bullseye a bit south of us.

yeah I agree. it is quite normal for the temps throughout Texas to be hovering around 0

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah guidance is all over the place right now, it going north of us is very possible. Hell some models like the navy don’t even have a low, which is concerning. I personally think this storm more than likely will miss because right now it doesn’t have enough support on the models, but i am still keeping an eye on it because despite being lower probability right now, if it does trend in the right direction we could be talking feet. 

swing away George!

we 

19 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

the sleet is always closer than it appears. 

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sleet is always closer than it appears

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Models seem to always underestimate mid level warmth, though...I'd defer to NAM on that closer in.

the sleet is always closer than it appears. 

55 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

Which town in New England has the best/worst snow removal? In all of the towns I've lived in, in MA in my opinion it's Oak Bluffs followed by Tisbury (Vineyard Haven.) The worst was Nantucket.

how hard can it be to remove snow on the Cape and Islands? it's not like they get anything appreciable 

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

phew... right - no worries than ..

lol -

dates?  don't come at me with human convention - I only have time for the Cosmos... 

Seriously though, I am actually flirting with the notion that things could break harder toward warm and pretty early this year.   But we'll enjoy this month while it lasts.  Not sure what your level of background is in this shit, but ... La Nina springs tend to be warmer.  Also, the fast flow?  That's the compression of the hemispheric winter heights against the 3-6 dm expanded HC that is not me ...it is scientifically and peer review vetted  - I'm trying futilely to get people's eyes to stop rolling about the tropical expansion stuff, I know..

Anyway, both the LN and the HC are constructive interference ... So, when the -AO business and blocking stuff wanes out to neutral exerters ...those other two are sort of left in carte blanche as proxy over the general circulation eddy ...  Just supposition

no background whatsoever.

I'm a snowmobiler, so i like snowpack. but once we roll into March, especially after the 15th or so, I am all for spring, and actaully really enjoy warm springs.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Course... two weeks from now it's spring - ... that ought chap some bums..

bum not chapped, but 2 weeks from now is Feb 23. last I checked, spring begins around March 20.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just screwed up TBH....no other reason. I know better, and made a rookie mistake.

looks to me like you were pretty close? I mean, had you gone 4-8 in between the blue and pink lines, you would have nailed the majority. but then yeah, you missed that fronto band.

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Those count though.

agreed, but it would have more weight to me if the Grinch hadn’t taken every bit of it away.

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

3K would deform MHT-CON LOL. 12K looks like near and north of BOS down into I-84.

we take

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

With 2 double-digit snows?  Each bigger than any I've had this winter or last?   Looking at all the previous 22 winters here, I'm a weak D/D- thru Jan. 31, D for snow, D- for temps.

Noted on that AN table that the only NNE locale is CON, which is more CNE.  Not surprised.

CON wouldn’t be on the list if they didn’t pick up 2 feet in the mid December storm.

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In Sunday morning and out after midnight. Dropping a foot on its way 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's like an 8 hr storm haha. Done by evening.

hmmm, who do we think is right?

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like it’s pretty much gone before the game starts... maybe lingering Far East for a bit.

going to hang out in Hong Kong?

sooooo, about February.

maybe we could talk about that some in the February thread?

59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think we were really looking at a decaying band of deformation lift north and weaken, but then a second spoke of vorticity rotated around and gave western ME a bunch of QPF yesterday. While it was sleet near the coast, it stayed all snow farther inland.

thanks, that's kind of what I was thinking. but it sucks being in the middle. I feel like Jan Brady.

9 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

LBSW

that little "peninsula" of blue in central NH was on most of the models for several days leading up to the storm. what was the impetus for that? Like, what would cause that gap in between the yellow/orange to the north and south?

2 hours ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah they got hosed in this one. My cousin said he got like 7" on the northern side of MHT. I would've lost it

can confirm hoseage. 7” on the dot

18 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Glad we don't live in MHT. Talk about sucking exhaust. 

can confirm. it sucks