Sey-Mour Snow

40.9 here drizzle.. I have no idea what to think about latest trends.. frustrating

Precip is 5-6 hours early lol temp down 5 degrees from earlier

loop of last few runs below

The fun part of this storm is still 96 hours away.. still have plenty of time to trend in any direction. Anything is still possible and I’m sure we will see many different solutions.

Def not as amped as 00z through Monday 7am looks like GFS.

48.6 outside.

GEFS mostly unchanged in terms of swath of heaviest snow. Maybe 5 miles north.

Most guidance does as light rain and snow

Ya 1.1” qpf verbatim it says half rain . We will see. I’m cautiously optimistic for my location. I’d be doing back flips if it was 2-3 degrees colder on guidance.

just for shiz and giggles..

Trimmed back 1” due to changeover timing uncertainty.

Agree, we all get the thread the needle set up. Taken from Scott earlier in the season, “ Scott’s post “makes you want get an uzi whenever he posts about this storm”. There is a low floor and very high ceiling potential with this bust possible either way after our initial forecasts come out. For now let’s all weenie out with the enormous potential while knowing in the back of our head there is a 30-50% chance the rug can be totally pulled out for most if it hugs and also if the dynamics don’t reach their ceiling considering the borderline temps.

Very high busy potential each way. I can see 12” or 0” at my house. Good to see NAMs cooling off they are still warm but def have that dynamical cooling look.

A ton of moisture to deal with .8-1.2” of precip across much of western ct. However the warm temps have me shook a bit . Hopefully we can cash in on at least half of this as accumulating snow. What a waste of half the storm though. Looks like an impressive band develops after midnight and pivots over us as temps cool enough for all snow everywhere and that’s when we really accumulate between the midnight and 6am timeframe.

It’s more like 20” + odds with about 4” coming tonight from that map . check this weenie map out everyone’s 90th percentile outcome lol

Odd considering the extremely heavy rates it’s advertising.

Lol 3km nam is all rain for southern ct and 91 corridor

Looks like 4-8” for interior SNE.. 8-16 as you get NW of 84 .. maxing out in berks on the mean.

3-6” of that is from tomorrow night

Definitely that trend today. Not in a bad way for you at all though. But the ensembles weren’t really throwing enough precip back here previously as it was bombing too late. The trend today on eps and especially GEFS is to get that ccb down here too finally.

definitely another uptick at 18z... 2"+ would be more likely if that verified with your elevation..