Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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@ORH_wxman can we change this thread to Friday PM into Saturday snow threat for SW zones? Mostly to avoid confusion between the two threats. -
The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
EPS has some big hits for everyone .. about 2" for SWCT on the mean for the weekend the rest is Monday Tuesday..
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
We are now getting within day 5 on todays runs with starting impacts and redevelopment off the coast.. Storm likely somewhere.. Hopefully we can start zoning in on a general idea over the next 24 hours of runs.. -
The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
1-2” of that is from Saturday in SNE. Here is just next week. Solid look , more mixing potential south.
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I personally enjoy when you start a thread. Especially when you get excited for an index scale event. There’s usually a major storm that forms, can’t help it if we don’t get the heavy snow axis from that far in advance. It’s worth the track!
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Ya just drastically different from last run.
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Not even a storm on GFS for next week lol .. the trend of the year one model is in and the other isn't , then when the other model jumps on board, the model that had it all along jumps off ship and ends up being exactly right that run..
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Agree for the Monday threat it’s now 3 runs in a row check out this control run lol @RUNNAWAYICEBERG special
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Correct it showed a massive hit for 1 run. But still solid for 3-4 runs. Let’s see just give us one storm and end this winter.
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As you can see here Peak PNA has been waffling on eps and generally trending later. As of last Thursday Friday PNA ridge was supposed to peak this coming weekend. . So hopefully the ridge doesn’t get that can kicked again.
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EPS showed the same thing for Saturday 2 days ago! All I’m saying is that we need multiple runs from multiple models to be in before I believe it.
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We aren’t done yet though. This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction.
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What I’m saying is that we said this same exact thing for this Saturday coming up and now look at it. It was just as good a signal as Monday and Tuesday now is. A few of the great signals has had some sort of transient PNA ridge that turned out to be a fluke.
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Ya I get it. We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal now look at it. Storm very likely yes? Yes precip type will be a concern. Also track does it end up congrats Delmarva , congrats SNE or NNE? Also the tendency has been to weaken the signal on approach.
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ZERO continuity with ensembles or op runs.. We will know more by Monday (sarcasm).. There's no reason to take any model seriously until all models have the same idea for at least 2 runs in a row..
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I wouldn’t feel good anywhere with zero model continuity.
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No sorry that was the 50th percentile and the mean each for 12z. The 50th percentile at 12z is much less than the mean, meaning that there are some snowy outliers skewing the mean.
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Here’s 00z
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Mean is way down from 00z.. gfs last to the party again.
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I’ll pass on the shaking hands but sure let’s move it east a bit ..
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I've been noticing that, annoyingly weird seems like most of the lows the models are spinning up are like that .
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Maybe the euro is broken and they should just re run it at 12z and see what solution it spits out this time?
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Fixed it lol
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Last pile just melted from last week.
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pouring salt in the SNE weenie wounds lol
