Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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Weird latest HRRR has 6”+ there from 5pm on. But radar looks horrible up where you are. I think coating to an inch looks like it. Colossal fail for HRRR this entire system . Time to retire that model. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I’m with you, it’s hard to write off Feb 1-14 that’s peak climo. The pattern doesn’t look like an all out torch so I’d lean that there will be something to at least track whether it’s a hit/miss or light/moderate event I’m sure something will creep up. Then the weenie set up we’ve all been waiting for is now Feb 12th ish to early March. Let’s see I’m not sold on any great pattern setting up since one hasn’t set up in over 2 years. -
Looks like 1.25” of rain will do it for round 1.
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What an absolute deluge yard is flooded for the 30th time this winter. .97” in 6 hours. 16” of rain since Dec 1 and 6.1” of snow.
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Yup was just posting that . That line is blasting north and putting an end to any snow chances. Already past OXC. I had 15 minutes of snow , then that line blasted through and it’s been all rain temp made it down to 34.2 now rising .. it’s over.. fun lil tease on what could have been an epic day if temps were a few degrees cooler. Edit : it is already in southern Litchfield and Hartford county.
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I’m enjoying my 1-3” at 7am the hrrr had. 34.7 degrees
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Cat paws mixed in starting at 7am now 25% paws. Sticking to roof bc they are so massive in size.
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.65” rain 35.1 degrees. Good watering for the grass, should green things up some more.
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Ya they are about 450-500’ there . You go from sea level to 650’ in about 2-3 miles
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Thump really trending to be ct mass border and south. Whether it’s a thump of rain or snow we will see…
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It’s all isothermal lol so close
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It’s isothermal on euro wb shows it
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Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too
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lol if that verified sure would , but I have a better chance of not being bald tomorrow morning I think
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18z a bit better for sure with the front end thump for SNE
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HRRR will either score a coup or just be horribly wrong .. it’s pounding isothermal snow here by hour 10-12
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Yes for start time. If HRRR holds serve at 00z and NAMs and Rgems cool again and have thump.. Then ya its go time for the hills especially. On a side note it's so hard to do an elevation map for your area.. So even though you are on the 1-3 line, I really think you are more like 3-6" with that thump plus the Sunday night snow..
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GFS and Reggie did trend better with thump. Really a nowcast for CT. Especially the elevations .
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Just adjusted it north. But it’s a zero confidence forecast. If we get some more shuffles and a trend that’s our friend then I’ll adjust south.
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If it was 2 degrees colder man…. Some nearby towns have 800-1000’ elevations I wonder if they can sneak out a miracle.
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That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done
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Strong thump … of rain? Nowcast IMO I could see 0/3/6 in your area. Would give 33% chance of each verifying.
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Fixed it for you lol .. this is just a nowcast for everyone, every piece of guidance is different with every aspect of this storm..
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Nam with a good nod towards the thump idea..
