Sey-Mour Snow

Lol I said down here, I’m in SWCT. It’s the nam also means nothing it’ll be completely different at 00z probably congrats CNE

Looks like an hour burst of snow then several hours of light white rain on nam down here..

I mean it’s not just the nam it’s now the hrrr gfs euro almost every model .. starting to get agreement that the nip storm ruins it for a good chunk of ct by torching us then slotting us.

Hrrr was great .. Canadian oh so close.

This has literally become a pain in the ass.. Not enjoyable at all to forecast this one, I mean accumulating snow starts in 30 hours.. And we have several models showing a monster snowstorm for all of SNE and the GFS and EURO are worlds apart from the other models. Southern CT is a disaster of a forecast..

he didn't look at the temps, its torched.. nothing for 2/3rds of the state.. northern third does well. Also southern CT gets dryslotted..

Aw thanks that’s the nicest thing anyone has ever said to us.

Agree

If that verifies we are going to a local bridge

FWIW HRRR would be a crushing for CT, doesn't go out far enough out east.. But probably the same with that look.. But GOD I hate that model.. It's like a bad addiction I can't quit lol EDIT massive deform band forms out in EMASS and rotates through for all of us, wow.. what a weenie run.. only half way through the storm lol with 10-20" in all of western CT..

***The map posted is what we call the 50th percentile forecast (meaning most guidance and outputs lead to this outcome). Keep in mind it is also very possible with this storm that the 25th percentile verifies (cut these numbers in half) or the 75th percentile verifies (double these numbers)*** Here's what we captioned it with.. Let's see where we go from here..

Lol bastardi at it again!

Definitely periods of 10-15:1 ratios but also many periods of shit ratios of like 3:1 in between bands.. so who knows what the final outcome is

Very reasonable outcome.. many would take.. EMASS is looking better and better and would do very well with that run..

Thats the big worry for CT, caught in between that ENY band and the main coastal.. 6z euro really does that well lol Congrats @MJO812 on the euro

They are less than 10:1 ratios for borderline situations.

Sleeping on his keyboard as we speak with his internet search showing toasters for sale near me.

Ya I don’t think elevation helps that much outside of Litchfield hills. It’s more of location. It’s snowing hard right down to the beach in the meat of it.

Seems like a great map to me based on the enormous uncertainty. I almost feel like anyone that doesn’t get in the “heavy banding ” during the daylight hours Tuesday won’t get much so it’s like 6-12”+ or just white rain ..

Obviously that and the 3km nam are the hopes. I hope the snowier solutions are right but plenty of concern for much of CT and plenty of models that completely shut us out. Even that euro run has a SWCT legit snow hole because the IVT takes the initial heavy precip as rain and moves it west into NY then the main storm bands and ccb reorganize over ENE. That’s one concern showing up on multiple pieces of guidance , gfs is the same but the main ccb reorganizes over mass state lines lol Other concern is if we do get settled into the 1-3/3-6” range will it snow heavy enough to actually accumulate ?

Yup , once the models converge on a solution this close in they don’t back off..

Nauseating trends since 18z started. Off to bed soon.. fantastic way to end 22/23 winter. Verbatim that’s 0.0” for all of southern CT. I’m not using 10:1 Kuchera is the way to go in this set up for the snow cut off..

Don’t know if it was posted, if any CT weenies need some of Tips d-drip just look at the 3km nam. I’ll be able to go right to bed after that.