Sey-Mour Snow

We are 12 hours away from what promises to be the most widespread New England snowstorm in several years. Around a foot of snow is a lock for many, however some questions remain. Nowcasting will be important as we track the following: 1. 700mb warm layer which may cut down accumulations along the south shore and cape possibly up to I-84. NAM and GFS are now the warmest. While HRRR and RGEM and RAP are the coldest. An extra hour or two in the "thump" can be the difference between 8" or 12"+ along the south shore. 2. Snow growth and snow rates. How many hours can the zone of greatest uncertainty (south coast) maintain great snow growth. I will be following the snow rates down to our SW to see if we have an overperformer on our hands. 3. Extent of heavy accumulations into NNE? 4. Wrap around snows on Monday, will there be accumulating snow? How far SW will it extend?

cooled off a bit here in the tropics of SNE, has a wild warm layer where theres like no sleet, mostly freezing rain where it mixes..

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/seasonal-snowfall/sne-seasonal?pgid=lw5l68187-167bfd36-2569-499c-ae56-76513c43d287

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-20-21 Better map

It’s actually much warmer and gets sleet onto Massachusetts

It’s been the first to catch on many times during SWFE

It's fair to say you can't tell any trend with this one early on in a run, that looked colder for sure, then it torched.. I don't think you can toss it either, all you can do is watch model trends for thermals.

Gets rain (only a few hundreths) to Weymouth lol

Everything going to plan, NAM'd run with 20-30" check .. NAM with sleet to pike check..

Plenty of support for widespread 14-18:1 ratios across SNE for the heaviest rates

Thats an easy 20-30" + Run wow , please have a clue NAM , it's not like it doesn't have some support for a run like that, it's just unlikely ..

Shocked with that colder shift, 16-20"+ run .. best case scenario here and for most in New England

Nam'd

Every CT met knows that sleet will make it to 84 for a time, just matters how early it gets here.

Just hoping we don’t get another north trend. Can’t really handle another down here.

12 hours of mod to heavy snow , I'll take that all day, this is a juiced SWFE, then a chance of more snow after a dry slot ..

no doubt, can't complain too much about that outcome, we'd pound for a while before mixing

I'd prefer it to stay in the sound

Well that's the last time I root for EMASS or north of the pike lmao , celebrating our sleet down here massholes lol.. crazy how even though it taints when we slot we still get 12-16" easily with those ratios ..

100% just cool to see the enhancement there

Man congrats out East! Sick NBM mean

Things can change, CPC had Sundays storm as a Mid Atlantic only storm just a few days ago.