Sey-Mour Snow

Ya, also noticing a strong PNA rise which would imply an Archembault event possible on that time frame

Possible yes but EPS still looks amazing just have to get through the transition cutters potentially the 13-17th.. classic KU pattern post the 17th

Still there monster -NAO merging with Pacific block merges over Davis Strait

I’m in 100% agreement with this.

My snow completely gone again .. maybe will see that on Tuesday PM

Yup another south jump on GEFS and now Euro op is a whiff. Our concerns are growing with next weeks potential pattern .. Ops match whiff cut cut

Barely it’s about the same

HREF is on the warmer further north side .. gets freezing rain / mix to mass border

GEFS last three runs definitely grabbing onto the HRRR idea of primary to Binghamton.. Have to monitor that closely .. They have warmed pretty significantly since 00z.. This is mostly a CT issue ATM

GFS on it's own

GFS seems to be on its own regarding Tuesday/Wednesday . Ensembles and other globals are further north..

GFS would be 8"+ in northern CT several hours in the goods..

RGEM shows how to get 8"+ in CT.. BC of the direction of the storm that band has the potential to train over a large area we will see how wide and intense it gets.. There will be two bands have to watch out for the area in between both bands, will be a relative min ..

ya for 8+ all has to go right, still can I think there will be a really nice pretty wide band of heavy snow for a while , we will see how long it lasts

I agree, doesn't matter about the warm tongue, we are getting 4"+ most likely with a quick thump .. just kind of takes the higher end of 8"+ off the table if you thump then slot quick

LOL 3km is close to a whiff north of 84

NAM looks weird, weak sauce, can't toss it though as we learned last storm . EDIT its also south from 6z.. NAM is actually the only model that doesn't mix in SWCT ..

Ya we hope that HRRR is smoking something, but the rest of guidance does change us over too after the thump, I don't think it matters too much get us the 3-5 hour thump and call it a day..

Ya I don't like that, Hi res is super warm at 750-850.. Looks like a quick thump to ice down here.. It does pound for 4 hours though.. So the part of the storm that matters will produce.. a quick 4"+ still likely before the slot to snizzle..

GEFS, EPS, SKYNET look amazing

I def see Scotts concern south and east of 84 over the next 2 weeks.. But we have 2 cold storms before that (hopefully Tuesday PM for SNE). And then hopefully the blocking and cold press can do work and push enough to keep all of us from seeing rain later next week and beyond. As long as we don't cut to buffalo and rain its all good. Lets just keep the pack that we gain starting tomorrow. I think this is at least a very good stretch of snow, will it be epic? We just don't know yet, but the opportunity is there, GEFS 6z, and EPS 00z still look amazing, the op runs will fluctuate until we get closer.

No, warm nose at 750mb after midnight along southern 1/4 of the state

Have to watch out for mixing in Southern CT, NAM's and HRRR are very warm.. even GFS and EURO get some mixing in

We will just never know .. but seriously bc that run is not verifying lmao .. just the best digital 30 minutes we’ve ever had