Sey-Mour Snow

100% not .. maybe the northern tier did but not southern

?

Don’t think so. Most places in CT haven’t even seen a dusting yet.

True, maybe this just raises the stakes for a Dec 20-25 storm. Pattern cant just keep on going to crap. Or can it lol

It’s a massive change in a negative direction for winter weather enthusiasts. Hopefully 00z reverts back. One more change like that and uh oh ..

I have no memory of stuff like that.

Damn really?

Latest BDL inch of snow on record? @CT Rain

Run to run change from EPS in the 7-11 day period not what you want to see.

I am liking the steady continued improvements in the EPS in the Pacific as Scott said. I wish GEFS AND GEPS would stay consistent with that regard.

At least the massive cutter grinch storm is before Christmas

No I am definitely excited with the prospects of the pattern. Just cautiously optimistic for now until we actually get there.

13th is 8 days out. The pattern keeps on pushing back. That’s uninspiring…

rather uninspiring op and ensemble runs overnight .. Hopefully 12z runs enhance the look for the 13/14th period..

Wow what a weenie run. All rain here verbatim on all 3 but so close to epic.

It’s better than looking worse!

Lol the 11-15 day has looked good for about 2 weeks now

ya I'd imagine 75% of the average December snowfall is post Dec 15th.

Very true but 99% in this forum average several inches of December snowfall per season, much more in the mountains.

It definitely seems as if the GEFS has been flip flopping all over the place with the Pacific and the EPS has been more consistent with the December 13-20 period as Will and BrooklynWx said. One worry as will said, the GEFS was the first to nail the Dec 6-10 period. Considering EPS consistency recently you'd like to side with the EPS for the December 13-20 period.. Definitely a better vibe to the 00z runs than 12z yesterday, lets see if we can do it again at 12z today and get closer to next weekend with a good pattern to look forward to. The good pattern is still kind of being pushed back to post day 10, I really want that to move up to day 7/8.. One small not technical thing I follow is all 3 ensembles were very snowy in the 10-15 day for the first time all year especially interior SNE on north..

From the CPC

Something like 18z GEFS shows what I was talking about the good pattern keeps on getting pushed back. Just rinse and repeat trough in west and ridge in east through day 12+…

Well yes Monday is December 5th and is next week. It’s delayed about a week from the initial great pattern depiction about 2 weeks back. But it quickly turned into a December 7-9 pattern change last weekend, however the past two days has now turned it into December 13+. I am a bit uneasy about the delay too, however if we can get this pattern into the 5-10 day range instead of the 10-15 day range I’d feel much better.

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled as guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.