Sey-Mour Snow

ya I'd imagine 75% of the average December snowfall is post Dec 15th.

Very true but 99% in this forum average several inches of December snowfall per season, much more in the mountains.

It definitely seems as if the GEFS has been flip flopping all over the place with the Pacific and the EPS has been more consistent with the December 13-20 period as Will and BrooklynWx said. One worry as will said, the GEFS was the first to nail the Dec 6-10 period. Considering EPS consistency recently you'd like to side with the EPS for the December 13-20 period.. Definitely a better vibe to the 00z runs than 12z yesterday, lets see if we can do it again at 12z today and get closer to next weekend with a good pattern to look forward to. The good pattern is still kind of being pushed back to post day 10, I really want that to move up to day 7/8.. One small not technical thing I follow is all 3 ensembles were very snowy in the 10-15 day for the first time all year especially interior SNE on north..

From the CPC

Something like 18z GEFS shows what I was talking about the good pattern keeps on getting pushed back. Just rinse and repeat trough in west and ridge in east through day 12+…

Well yes Monday is December 5th and is next week. It’s delayed about a week from the initial great pattern depiction about 2 weeks back. But it quickly turned into a December 7-9 pattern change last weekend, however the past two days has now turned it into December 13+. I am a bit uneasy about the delay too, however if we can get this pattern into the 5-10 day range instead of the 10-15 day range I’d feel much better.

Things have only trended worse for next week as most of it looks warm and unsettled as guidance has pushed the beginning of the favorable period later and later.. Now the favorable period is more Dec 13+ instead of Dec 10+... We just hope that it doesn't keep on getting pushed back.. However we can still sneak in a storm in the Dec 9/10 timeframe if we thread the needle.

Most of the those 11 minutes are action packed with violence! Hence why it’s the best most popular sport in America.

Have a very wet holidays

Here’s where we stand. As others have said. EPS looks great and all but the GEFS has been leading the way in the Pacific .. So I take the EPS day 10-15 with a grain of salt.

Ya and this for a 5 day mean!

Wow the eps is unreal! We take!

Anyone know what year was the best December for snowfall for SNE?

I can’t tell if these guys are joking with us or not lol .. the ensembles have been very consistent for the post Dec 4-7 shift to very favorable.

I'm only out to 12/3 looks the same so far to me

it's the ensembles that matter, the op will flip flop

another gfs run another different solution ... patience .. we have no idea what is going to happen next weekend.. I'd take cold with some scattered snow showers...

Solid squall first road accumulation of the season. IMG_4232.MOV

3.1” of snow first hour for Buffalo

Better blocking in long range on ensembles overnight. Also still a solid storm signal continuing around Thanksgiving.

Just checking out latest gfs compared to climo. Next 10 days look to be 5-10 degrees below average with respect to highs with lows right about average. So nothing too crazy. Will probably be -4 to -8 for the next 7-10 days. The we return to seasonal for thanksgiving week.

Ya west on this run it hugs but it’s a sub 975 bomb

6-12” NNE , rain for everyone else. Very wintry run multiple chances. We take 7-12 days out.

Prayers for Washington DC they look to get hit “head on”

74/66 at 9am wow