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Sey-Mour Snow

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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow

  1. Sey-Mour Snow
    Edit option 4: could cut to Buffalo. Right now after last nights guidance most likely. 1. Hugger or track over SNE 2. bench mark track 3. Track over Buffalo 4. ots I’m sure the order of this will change at least a few more times in the next 2-3 days.
  2. Sey-Mour Snow
    850’ at Oxford/Waterbury airport. Most guidance had 3-6” there.. oops
  3. Sey-Mour Snow
    So if 50 members showed rain and 1 showed a 51” blizzard. You’d want the mean to be 51” of snow?
  4. Sey-Mour Snow
    That’s bc some members cut and not all qpf is snow.
  5. Sey-Mour Snow
    Those are the weenie maps from storm vista that are always 2-3x too high. The mean for the storm is 4-6”..
  6. Sey-Mour Snow
    If we get that type of storm 2 days before Christmas just wow
  7. Sey-Mour Snow
    That's the full duration of the storm.. Widespread 6"+ .. It's nice to see this as a coastal threat now, and not favoring interior. As you said this is a wild mean for day 7-8.. Only the big ones have a mean like this well in advance..
  8. Sey-Mour Snow
  9. Sey-Mour Snow
    Euro is dead nuts with it now. Plenty of time to trend east.
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    Ya euro gfs candian were over Hudson on Sunday Monday. Then gfs gradually started shifting others have caught on about 6 runs later.
  11. Sey-Mour Snow
    While every other model had it cutting into the Hudson it was the first to catch onto the eastern and colder shift.
  12. Sey-Mour Snow
    Everything is much further east than yesterday. I like that.
  13. Sey-Mour Snow
    Elevation will be a necessity in Derby to grab a few inches. Theres some 300-400' elevation there on the "hilltop", however down along the river valley has no shot in my opinion.
  14. Sey-Mour Snow
    Get that to verify 250 miles East and wow.. Would be the storm of our lifetime as it falls Dec 22-24th with epic cold behind..
  15. Sey-Mour Snow
    I like the look of the 18z GEFS . Let’s get all guidance to look like that for next Thursday Friday.
  16. Sey-Mour Snow
    Plenty white here now, just being real. Cutter will be a real risk in this pattern.
  17. Sey-Mour Snow
    We don't live at 500.... 4 of 51 EPS members have it cutting.. May it be a SWFE? possible, Miller B? possible, coastal? possible, but it can also cut and rain on us if the cold gets dumped too far west..
  18. Sey-Mour Snow
    EPO goes neutral pretty quick on EPS after this weekend, while GEFS keep it negative..
  19. Sey-Mour Snow
    Great visuals thanks.. Took a closer look at EPS 4 of 51 members are favorable for snow for the Pre-Christmas threat. Lets just get the pacific ridge east.. Definitely plenty of time 9-11 days out .. I think this could be a rather important storm..
  20. Sey-Mour Snow
    When the surface depiction makes sense yes.. Cold dumps into west first then bleeds east? Can we get a redevelopment to our SE bc of the block? For now I'll follow seasonal trends.. Hope I'm 100% wrong and that it changes..
  21. Sey-Mour Snow
    I’ve been watching this threat closely. From a smoother 500mb view it looks nice. However when I look at all 3 ensembles at the surface the average track is through the great lakes. I’ll show some maps later on my break.
  22. Sey-Mour Snow
    I mean that track does make sense.
  23. Sey-Mour Snow
    I’ll join you.
  24. Sey-Mour Snow
    We’d be in the 60s easily Christmas Eve, at least it wouldn’t be be a grinch storm for southern and eastern SNE. No snow to melt. All 3 ensemble suites as of now agree that storm will cut by a good amount. We may have to wait til after Christmas for a real chance if that holds.
  25. Sey-Mour Snow
    Love that +NAO at -1.5SD
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