Roger Smith

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 for these nine locations ... ____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadline 06z Monday Nov 1st or late Sunday evening or very early Monday (2 a.m. EDT) ... may do the snowfall contest with the DEC contest this year. Good luck !

Final scoring for October 2021 Scoring is based on the most recent provisional end of month anomalies posted in the previous post. For now, the scoring is posted in the same order as the forecast table. This makes updates a bit faster. Asterisks refer to one or two point deductions for late penalties. (* one point deduction, ** two point deduction). ^ _ The top raw scores for DCA were 59 and 58, these were boosted by one to satisfy the max 60 rule, all other raw scores were higher than minimum progression levels. PHX (max raw score 56) also required the "max 60" scoring but it made only slight differences to all scores, as most stayed at or near the raw scores anyway. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _ c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL RJay __________ (-1%) ___ 59^* 87*_72*__218 ___ 92*_93*_79*__264__482 __87*_34*^_53*__ 174 ___ 656 DonSutherland1 ________ 51 _ 78 _ 55 __ 184 ___ 97 _ 98 _ 72 __267 __451 __ 64 _ 55^_ 68 __ 187 ___ 638 Tom ____________________ 60^_ 90 _ 69 __219 ___77 _ 92 _ 64 __233 __452 __ 22 _ 24 _ 96 __ 142 ___ 594 RodneyS ________________39 _ 80 _ 55 __ 174 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 62 __199 __373 __ 72 _ 60^_ 68 __ 200 ___ 573 Deformation Zone ______ 35 _ 68 _ 79 __ 182 ___ 63 _ 80 _ 50 __ 193 __375 __ 34 _ 50^_ 90 __ 174 ___ 549 ___ Consensus __________ 37 _ 62 _ 51 __ 150 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 64 __ 201 __351 __ 70 _ 35^_ 66 __ 171 ___ 522 hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%)__ 38*_ 59*_46*__143 ___ 30*_ 82**_76**_188__331 __ 59*_45*_ 65* _169 ___ 500 wxallannj _______________ 31 _ 58 _ 27 __ 116 ___ 53 _ 90 _ 60 __ 203 __319 __ 88 _ 08 _ 84 __ 180 ___ 499 so_whats_happening ___ 46 _ 52 _ 23 __ 121 ___ 57 _ 70 _ 60 __ 187 __ 308 __ 72 _ 40 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 496 BKViking _____ (-2%) ____32*_ 53*_ 36*__121 ___ 44*_78**_63*_ 185 __306 __ 74**34*^_53*__161___ 467 Roger Smith ____________ 35 _ 64 _ 53 __ 152 ___ 43 _ 54 _ 44 __ 141 __293 __ 86 _ 14 _ 52 __ 152 ___ 445 Scotty Lightning ________ 15 _ 38 _ 19 __ 072 ___ 05 _ 70 _ 70 __ 145 __ 217 __ 54 _35^_ 50 __ 139 ___ 356 ___ Normal ______________00 _ 18 _ 00 ___018 __ 00 _ 50 _ 40 __ 090 __ 108 ___ 44 _ 48 _ 60 __ 152 ___ 260 wxdude64 ___ (-2%) ____ 05^_ 08 _ 00 __ 013 __ 00 _ 57*_ 49*__ 106 __119 ___ 65*_16 _ 55*__ 136 ___ 255 _____________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT _ DCA is a win for highest forecast (without penalty) Tom (+3.4). "No decision" for RJay (+3.4, one point penalty). _ NYC (+4.1) is a win for Tom (+3.6) with highest forecast. _ BOS (+5.1) is a win for Deformation Zone (+4.0). _ ORD (+5.7) is a win for highest forecast Don Sutherland at +6.0. _ ATL (+2.5) finished closest to third warmest forecast so does not qualify. _ IAH (+3.0) is a win for RJay (+2.0) with highest forecast. _ DEN (+2.8) is a loss for Roger Smith (+3.5) and a win for wxallannj at +2.2. _ PHX (-2.6) is a win for coldest forecast of RodneyS (-0.4). _ SEA (-2.0) is a win for Tom at -1.8 and a loss for DZ at -2.5. Overall results: eight forecasts qualify, six for warmest and two for coldest forecasts.

October anomalies so far and projections ... _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 13th ___ (12d anom) ____ +6.0 _ +3.8 _ +5.0e__+11.5 _+4.9 _+2.7 __+4.1 _ -3.2 _ -5.4 23rd ___ (22d anom) ___ +5.6 _ +4.8 _ +6.6 __ +8.0 _ +3.8 _ +2.6 __+1.8 _-3.8 _ -2.4 13th __ (p20d anom) ____ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 __ +7.5 _+3.5 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 13th __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 23rd __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 __+2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 30th __ (adjusted) _______+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 __+3.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 Final anomalies __________+5.5 _ +4.1 _ +5.1 __ +5.7 _+2.5 _+3.0 __+2.8 _-2.6 _-2.0 _______________________________________________ 13th _ A generally warm start except in the west which has been quite cold. BOS est from +4.4 11th and +10 departure on 12th ... forecast to 20th based on somewhat reduced warmth in most areas and a slight rebound for the west to near normal values, then the projection to end of the month (GFS run ends 29th) is based on similar trends with the introduction of more variable and sometimes quite cold weather in the plains states reaching the Midwest at least. This will bring the anomalies for ORD back into the range of our forecasts hopefully. 30th _ Have updated the monthly anomaly projections in a two cases (IAH, DEN), the rest are not looking too far off and can be adjusted at final scoring stage. This will allow for a reliable preview of the actual order of scoring for the month. I am hoping PHX warms up a bit more than shown so that I won't need to use max 60 scoring there (for -2.5 the highest score was 58). 31st-1st _ Posting final anomalies overnight and adjusting scoring.

The warmest October on record in most parts of the northeastern US was either 1947 or 1963, both come out very close to tied in many cases. Epic snowstorms followed these warm Octobers (Dec 26, 1947 and Jan 1964). Another very warm October was 1971, and Feb 1972 was quite a wintry month. So this autumn warmth is not necessarily a bad sign for the coming winter. Cold Octobers have often been followed by rather bland winters. I posted elsewhere that I think this might be a pretty good winter in the northeastern US. The bar is rather low after the last few, of course, although NYC has managed to wring out some decent totals when DCA and BOS failed to do so. It has been unusually cold here in the western interior regions since a warm spell in late September ended. SEA has an anomaly of -4 F to this point, and where I live we have seen snow twice already, and had a sharp frost on two occasions. Hopefully this will be a cold trough that does not anchor itself here but shows some progressive tendencies. I think that report on mild temperatures in the central arctic has to be a good indicator too. That is usually correlated with cold in the western arctic moving southeast around an upper low that needs to form near northern Hudson Bay to get the mild air into that region (it seldom comes from the south or southwest, usually from the east up that way from the open waters of Baffin Bay).

Using a technique of weighted analogues by natural variability factors, I have determined the following prospects for the winter of 2021-2022 in North America. Cold may play a significant role compared to some recent winters. Severe cold is likely to show up fairly often in central regions and will sometimes spread into the northeastern US and mid-Atlantic states, even the southeast a few times. A coastal storm track may develop and snowfall could be generous compared to recent winters in the larger urban areas of the eastern U.S. Mid-January to early March is favored for the best winter synoptics in the east but December is not ruled out either. Following a sustained warmth this month lasting well into November, would look for a highly variable pattern to develop by late November and some cold outbreaks in December mixed with much milder spells. This could yield some cold spells of a few days' duration and possibly one significant snow event. A milder spell seems likely around Christmas to New Years and into the first ten days of January, followed by a series of colder outbreaks some of which could be quite severe. This will set up a better than average east coast snowfall potential. One of several years that showed up in the analogue set was 1898 (into 1899) which featured an epic arctic outbreak in mid-February. But in general, the index values tend to show equal chances of severe cold in late January and early to mid February, so perhaps one good spell in each month. The March index values tend to show a sharp reversal from severe cold at first to record warmth later. Anyway, I for one do not expect this winter to be as frustrating an experience as the last few have been for east coast snowfall fans, and the Midwest and Great Lakes could have quite a severe winter. Expecting the inland west to be quite variable with a persistent mild signal for the Pac NW and coastal BC into the western prairies due to frequent chinook activity, as the main track for severe cold will be through eastern SK and MB into the Dakotas and Minnesota.

September 2021 summary: Toronto mean 18.4 C (t-22 warmest of 182 yrs with 1985) adjusted to u.h.i. 17.3 C (t-27 warmest of 182 yrs with 1846, 1920, 1985) _ _ note was t-21 warmest (raw) and t-26 warmest in the overlapping period, 1865 was the one year warmer in either case before NYC began obs. rainfall 138.6 mm (16th wettest of 182) one new daily rainfall record (22nd _ 49.9 mm) _ narrowly edged out the rainfall from Hugo's tropical storm rainfall from 1989 (47.3 mm). no daily temperature records --------------------- NYC mean 21.28 C (70.3 F) was t-26 warmest of 153 yrs with 1898, 1945, 1948, and 2007). NYC adjusted to u.h.i. 20.18 C (68.3 F) (t-41 yrs warmest of 153 yrs with 2007). rainfall 10.03" (6th wettest of 153) 7.13" rainfall 1st new daily record no daily temperature records --------------------- Overall, a quite warm and very wet month although after the 7.13" fell on the 1st at NYC the rest of the month had about the normal September rainfall amount 2nd-30th.

Table of forecasts for October 2021 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias Tom ____________________ +3.2 _+3.6 _+3.5 __ +4.2 _+2.9 _+1.2 ___ -1.1 _ +1.2 _ -1.8 ____ +0.23 RJay __________ (-1%) ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.7 __ +5.0 _+2.8 _+2.0 ___+2.2 _+1.0 _+0.3 ___ +0.99 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.8 _+3.0 _+2.8 __ +6.0 _+2.4 _+1.6 ___ +1.0 _-0.1 _-0.4 ____ +0.48 so_whats_happening ____+2.5 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +3.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.4 _+0.4 _-0.8 ____ -0.36 RodneyS ________________ +2.2 _+3.1 _+2.8 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ +1.4 _-0.4 _-0.4 ____ -0.03 hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%) __+2.2 _+2.1 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _+1.7 _+1.9 ____+0.8 _+0.1 _-0.3 ____ -0.22 ___ Consensus __________ +2.1 _+2.2 _+2.6 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ____ +1.3 _+1.0 _-0.3 Deformation Zone ______ +2.0 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ -0.5 __ 0.0 _-2.5 ____ -0.42 Roger Smith _____________+2.0 _+2.3 _+2.7 __ +2.5 _+0.2 _+0.2 ___+3.5 _+1.7 _+0.4 ____ +0.08 BKViking _____ (-2%) ____ +1.9 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +2.6 _+1.5 _+1.2 ____ +1.6 _+1.0 _+0.3 ____ -0.11 wxallannj ________________+1.8 _+2.0 _+1.4 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.2 _+2.0 _-1.2 ____ -0.07 Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ -0.76 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ -1.64 wxdude64 ___ (-2%) _____ -0.7 _-0.5 _-0.3 ___-0.8 _+0.4 _+0.5 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+0.2 ____ -1.48 _____________________________________________________ Color codes show the warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for ATL, IAH. Bias reveals the average departure of each forecaster (and Normal) from the consensus.

Suspect it will be warm and then mild/wet like 1963, first frosts could be quite late. DCA _ Dec 4 IAD _ Nov 25 BWI _ Nov 25 RIC _ Dec 4 max 24h rain BWI 2.04"

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Sep) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up two relative to forecasters. Normal remained in its previous position. Other changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 656 _680 _447 _ 1783 __541 _690 _624 _1855__3638 __402 _628 _602 _ 1632___ 5270 BKViking (up 1) _______________ 653 _705 _479 _ 1837 __427 _655 _603 _ 1685__3522 __481 _597 _621 _ 1699___ 5221 RodneyS (up 2) _______________ 614 _652 _460 _ 1726 __456 _674 _550 _ 1680__3406 __494 _634 _630 _1758___ 5164 ___ Consensus (up 2) ________ 678 _700 _455 _ 1833 __419 _624 _588 _ 1631__3464 __476 _568 _602 _ 1646___ 5110 wxallannj (down 2) ___________ 612 _652 _442 _ 1706 __398 _580 _604 _ 1582__3288 __590 _561 _642 _1793___ 5081 Tom (up 1) ____________________ 658 _707 _492 _ 1857__370 _557 _620 _ 1547__3404 __520 _577 _562 _ 1659___ 5063 wxdude64 (down 2) __________ 669 _637 _475 _ 1781 __398 _628 _595 _ 1621__3402 __515 _569 _569 _ 1653___ 5055 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 654 _672 _476 _ 1802 __396 _636 _560 _ 1592__3394__430 _563 _656 _ 1649___ 5043 Scotty Lightning ______________ 660 _662 _429 _ 1751 __356 _564 _538 _ 1458__3209 __496 _542 _626 _ 1664___ 4873 ___ Normal ____________________ 652 _598 _344 _ 1594 __286 _640 _630 _ 1556 __3150 __486 _596 _618 _ 1700___ 4850 so_whats_happening _________ 697 _ 663 _366 _ 1726 __425 _662 _503 _ 1590 __3316 __398 _558 _551 _ 1507___ 4823 RJay __________________________ 596 _620 _484 _ 1700 __440 _586 _538 _ 1564 __3264 __446 _477 _496 _ 1419___ 4683 Roger Smith ___________________584 _502 _235 _ 1321 __ 417 _538 _642 _ 1597 __2918 __416 _525 _604 _ 1545___ 4463 Deformation Zone _ (3/9) ______198 _ 150 __75 __ 423 __ 89 __206 __202 __497___ 920 __192 _ 180 _ 174 __546____1466 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______3 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan BKViking _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul so_whats_happening _________ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) RJay __________________________ 1 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Sep Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 2 __Jun, Aug Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 61 locations out of 81 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, and 8 in September. Of those, 32 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 29 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been eight shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep ___ TOTAL to date Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _ 3-0 __ 14-2 RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _ 1-0 __ 10-1 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 ___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 9-1 RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 8-0 so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 7-0 wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 4-0 Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 3-0 BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 2-0 __________________________________

+2.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.4

Posting a general reminder to NYC forum members that temperature forecast contest deadline is approaching.

Final scoring for September 2021 _ scoring is based on final anomalies in previous post. _ BOS currently scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (most scores are boosted). The highest raw scores were 44. _ ORD scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (all scores are boosted at least slightly). The highest raw score was only 38. _ scoring remains in forecast table order until final. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RJay _____________________96 _ 88 _ 50^__ 234 __ 50^_ 80 _ 60 __ 190 __ 424 ___50 _ 90 _ 66 __ 206____ 630 DonSutherland1 _________92 _ 88 _ 35^__ 215 ___60^_80 _ 88 __ 228 __ 443 __ 26 _ 94 _ 66 __ 186 ____ 629 BKViking ________________ 96 _ 96 _ 40^__ 232 __ 35^_ 74 _ 74 __ 183 __ 415 __ 44 _ 96 _ 70 __ 210 ____ 625 RodneyS _________________64 _ 76 _ 60^__ 200 __ 55^_ 78 _ 68 __ 201 __ 401 __ 46 _ 82 _ 74 __ 202 ____ 603 hudsonvalley21 __________94 _ 92 _ 25^__ 211 ___ 35^_ 46 _ 70 __ 151 __ 362 __ 40 _ 92 _ 84 __ 216 ____ 578 ___ Consensus ___________90 _ 88 _ 33^__ 211 __ 35^_ 76 _ 68 __ 179 __ 390 __ 40 _ 80 _ 68 __ 188 ____ 578 Scotty Lightning _________96 _ 98 _ 50^__ 244 __ 50^_ 50 _ 50 __ 150 __ 394 __ 40 _ 70 _ 66 __ 176____ 570 so_whats_happening ____ 96 _100_60^__256 __ 25^_ 64 _ 60 __ 149 __ 405 __ 36 _ 76 _ 52 __ 164 ____ 569 Tom ______________________88 _ 88 _ 30^__ 206 __ 40^_ 62 _ 74 __ 176 ___382 __30 _ 82 _ 70 __ 182 ____ 564 ___ Normal _______________ 84 _ 78 _ 18 __ 180 __ 18 _ 80 _ 80 __ 178 __ 358 __ 20_100 _ 86 __206 ____ 564 Roger Smith _____________ 70 _ 62 _ 10^__ 142 __ 20^_100 _100__ 220__362 __ 20 _ 80 _ 92 __192 ____ 554 wxallannj _________________84 _ 72 _ 15^__ 171 __ 10^_ 60 _ 50 __ 120 __ 291 __ 64 _ 50 _ 78 __ 192 ____ 483 wxdude64 _______________ 56 _ 52 _ 22 __ 130 __ 15^_ 92 _ 96 __ 203 __ 333 __ 16 _ 78 _ 42 __136 ____469 Deformation Zone _______ 60 _ 38 _ 05^__ 103 __ 05^_ 80 _ 60__ 145 __ 248 __ 70_ 60 _ 36 __ 166 ____ 414 ________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT _ DCA is a shared win for four forecasts, see table for details. _ NYC is a win for so_whats_happening with warmest forecast (+1.1 equal to outcome). _ BOS a win for so_whats_happening and RodneyS (warmest forecasts) _ ORD is a win for DonSutherland1 (warmest forecast) _ ATL, IAH, SEA wins for Roger Smith (coldest forecasts). _ DEN is a win for Deformation Zone (warmest forecast) _ PHX currently expected to finish close to consensus, will not qualify. __________________________________________

The max of only 96 at RIC must rank in their top ten all-time lowest values, anyone know what their lowest max on record is? I know that NYC is 90 for that statistic.

Now for the same analysis of lowest mean minimum weekly averages ... as you might expect, the frequency of them slowly decreases through the period of record. There are even so a few relatively recent cases where a cold regime overcame the disadvantage of the much larger urban heat island that exists now relative to the late 19th century. TABLE 2: NUMBER OF WEEKLY INTERVALS THAT ACHIEVED LOW MINIMUM for each year (ties are 0.5, there is one case of a three-way ties entered as 0.33) (weeks ending Jan 1-6 are assigned to year with majority of days and are marked * if they extend into next year (end Jan 1-3), and ** if they began in previous year (end Jan 4-6). As these cannot be directly read from the totals, the actuals are posted in the relevant decade which is 1910-19 since all six are in the winter of 1917-18 (so three count for each of those years). Only the colder of the two subsets ending March 1 to 6 count for this table. Monthly counts after decade totals are generated by end dates only (some days in some intervals can be in adjacent months) The random expectation is 2.4 per year and 24.1 per decade, 2.0 per month within decades. YEAR ENDING 0 __ 1 __ 2 __ 3 __ 4 __ 5 __ 6 __ 7 __ 8 __ 9 ___ decade total __ monthly count (total) ________________________________________________________________________J_F_M_ A_M_J_ J_A_S_ O_N_D decade ... (1869) ______________________________________ 8 _____8.0 ____0_ 0_ 0__ 0_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 6_2_0 1870s ________ 0__6.33_10.5_3.5__18 _ 21 __ 7 __ 0 __ 7 __ 4 ___77.33 __ 0_2_4.5_20_11.5_2_ 2.33_0_10_ 7_8_10 1880s ________11 __ 5 __ 1 _13.5__ 1 __11 __11.5 _4 __20 __ 3 ____81.0 ___ 6.5_3_19 _3_2_0_ 9_10.5_8_ 6_12_2 1890s _________3 __ 0 __ 1 __ 6 _ 2.5__2.5_ 3.5 _0 __ 0 __ 3 ____21.5 ___ 3_7.5_0_ 0_0.5_2_ 7_0.5_0_ 1_0_0 1900s _________3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 _____10.0 ___ 1_0_3_ 0_ 4_2_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_0_0 1910s _________0 __ 0 __ 6.5 _2 _ 4.5__ 1 __ 1 __ 12*_10.5**_3 ____41.5 ___9.5_4_1_ 0_2_5.5_ 0_5_6_ 0_0_8.5 _1917-18* (3) 1917-18** (3) 1920s _______5.33 _ 0 __ 0 _ 5.5 _ 2 __ 2 __6.5 _0 __ 0 __ 1 _____22.33 __ 0_0_1_ 4_0_2.5_ 6.33_2_0.5_ 0_2_4 1930s _________3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 5 __6.5 _ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____18.5 ___2_6_2_ 0_1_2_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 1_ 4_0.5 1940s ________12 __ 0 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 ____ 27.0 ____0_0_0_ 0_0_7_ 2_ 5_ 3_ 7_ 0_ 3 1950s _________0 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 7.0 ____ 0_0_0_ 0_ 0_5_ 0 _1 _1_ 0_ 0_ 0 1960s _________0.5 _0 __ 0 __1.83 _ 6__ 1 __ 0 __ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____15.33 ___ 5_0_0.5_0_ 1_ 0_ 1.33_4.5_1_ 2_0_0 1970s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _ 0.5 __0.5 _0 __ 0 __8.5 ___ 9.5 ____ 0 _4_0_ 0_ 0.5_0_ 3_1.5_0.5_ 0_0_0 1980s _________2 __ 0 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 4 _____9.0 ____ 0_0_0_ 3_ 0_ 2_ 0_ 1_ 0_ 0_0_3 1990s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 4.0 ____ 4_0_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_0_0 2000s _________0 __ 0 __3.5__0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 4.5 ____ 0_0_0_ 0_3.5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 1_ 0_ 0 2010s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2.5 _0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 4.5 ____0_2.5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 2_ 0 2020s _________5 __ 0 _ (0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0) ____ 5.0 _____0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0 ______________^2020 2021 __ (future years of 2022-29) ___________________________________________________________________________________ Most weekly intervals coldest on record: 1875_ 21 ... 1888_20 ... 1874_18 ... 1883_ 13.5 ... 1917, 1940_ 12.0 ... 1886_11.5 ... 1880,1885_11.0 ... 1872, 1918_ 10.5 ... These eleven years account for about 5/12 of the total in the calendar year. Since 1940, the highest annual count is 8.5 in 1979. Since then the highest count was 5.0 in 2020 (all in May). There were no coldest average minima in any weekly interval from January 1994 to May 2002 or from April 1982 to Aug 1989. There was only one between May 2002 and Feb 2015 (in Oct 2009). The 1950s were also rather void of record low temperatures. But it can also be noted that 1908, 1909, 1910 and 1911 scored zero. Recent years show that it is possible to break sustained cold records, but the cold needs to arrive with significant wind velocity to negate the bulk of the urban heat island now present. This is why (in addition to climate change) the frequency of low count years dropped significantly after about 1910 even if averages stayed rather high due to some severely cold episodes (almost all of the records shown for 1917 and 1918 were in a three-week interval in mid to late December 1917 and early January 1918. _ The frequency of low maxima has stayed slightly higher in recent years as the urban effect is smaller in the daytime hours. Longest consecutive groups of weekly intervals including all cases 4 or more (=10+ days) (2 would imply an 8-day warm spell, 3 would imply 9 days, etc) (No. ints. = number of intervals, when any are tied the count entered into the table above is also shown in brackets) No. ints. __ days ____ year, and start, end dates overall _11 _______ 17 _______ 1874 Apr 22 - May 8 (Apr 22-28 to May 2-8 intervals) _10 _______ 16 _______ 1875 Apr 12-27 (Apr 12-18 to Apr 21-27 intervals) _ 9 _______ 15 _______ 1880 Nov 16-30 (Nov 16-22 to Nov 24-30 intervals) _ much colder than second coldest at times (up to 10 F deg) _ 8 _______ 14 _______ 1869 Oct 20 - Nov 2 (Oct 20-26 to Oct 27 - Nov 2 intervals) _ 8 _______ 14 _______ 1917-18 Dec 25 - Jan 7 (Dec 25-31 to Jan 1-7 intervals) _ coldest average Dec 29 - Jan 4 (-4.43 F) _ 7 _______ 13 _______ 1883 Aug 31 - Sep 12 (Aug 31 - Sep 6 to Sep 6-12 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1888 Jan 18-29 (Jan 18-24 to Jan 23-29 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1888 July 8-19 (July 8-14 to July 13-19 intervals) _ 6 (5.5) __ 12 _______ 1917 Dec 7 - 18 (Dec 7-13 to Dec 12-18 intervals) _ first int tied with 1934 _ 6 (5.33)_ 12 _______ 1920 July 22 - Aug 2 (July 22-28 to July 27 - Aug 2 intervals) _ first int is tied three ways with 1871, 1963 _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1945 May 30 to June 10 (May 30 - June 5 to June 4-10 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1947 Sep 22 to Oct 3 (Sep 22-28 to Sep 27 - Oct 3 intervals) _ 5 (4.5) __ 11 _______ 1872 Feb 29 - Mar 10 (Feb 29-Mar 6 to Mar 4-10 intervals) _ Mar 4-10 tied with 1883 _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1874 Apr 7-17 (Apr 7-13 to Apr 11-17 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1875 Sep 17-27 (Sep 17-23 to Sep 21-27 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1875 Nov 26 - Dec 6 (Nov 26 - Dec 2 to Nov 30 - Dec 6 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1876 Oct 9-19 (Oct 9-15 to Oct 13-19 intervals) _ extends to 7/13 days (see one interruption notes) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1886 Aug 15-25 (Aug 15-21 to Aug 19-25 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1923 Mar 25 - Apr 4 (Mar 25-31 to Mar 29-Apr 4 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1940 Aug 20-30 (Aug 20-26 to Aug 24-30 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 2020 May 5-15 (May 5-11 to May 9-15 intervals) _ cold enough to set benchmark values (see below) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1968 Jan 4-14 (Jan 4-10 to Jan 8-14 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 ______ 1872 Dec 21-30 (Dec 21-27 to Dec 24-30 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1879 Oct 30 - Nov 8 (Oct 30 - Nov 5 to Nov 2-8 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1893 June 23 to July 2 (June 23-29 to June 26-July 2 intervals) _ 4 (3.5) _ 10 _______ 1918 June 17-26 (June 17-23 to June 20-26 intervals) _ first interval tied by 1926 _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1926 Dec 1-10 (Dec 1-7 to Dec 4-10 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1935 Jan 24 - Feb 2 (Jan 24-30 to Jan 27 - Feb 2 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1940 Oct 15-24 (Oct 15-21 to Oct 18-24 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1951 June 9-18 (June 9-15 to June 12-18 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1979 Feb 10-19 (Feb 10-16 to Feb 13-19 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1994 Jan 14-23 (Jan 14-20 to Jan 17-23 intervals) _ 4 (3.5) __ 10 _______ 2002 May 16-25 (May 16-22 to May 19-25 intervals) _ last interval tied 1976 (_3 ________ 9 _______ 1934) Feb 4-12 (Feb 4-10 to 6-12 intervals) _ added despite falling short of 4/10 because very close to extending at either end, and extreme cold. ... the spell that followed in the calendar year (3 intervals 1899 ending Feb 13-15) was similar and lost out narrowly at either end. Another similar 1934 cold spell of three consecutive intervals was for Feb 22-28 to Feb 24-Mar 2. Also a spell in April 1881 (three intervals ending Apr 7-9) was just marginally prevented from taking a fourth ending Apr 6. (interrupted by one interval from another year) _ 7 ________ 13 ________ 1876 Oct 7 to 19 (see table above for five consecutive intervals ending Oct 19, before those, Oct 7-13, then (( _ )) Oct 8-14 (1875). _ 6 ________ 12 ________ 1918 June 17 to 28 (see table above for four consecutive intervals ending June 26 then (( _ )) June 22-28 _ interrupted by 1940 June 21-27. _ 5 ________ 11 ________ 1907 May 20-30 (May 20-26, (( _ )) May 22-28, May 23-29, May 24-30) _ interrupted by 1967 May 21-27 ... this can also be considered longer see below (interrupted by two intervals from another year but when urban heat island effect considered, both are probably a fairly robust cold spell of more recent times) _ 6 _________ 12 _______ 1964 Aug 9 - 20 (Aug 9-15, Aug 10-16 (( _ _ )) Aug 13-19, Aug 14-20 ... 1963t79 and 1979 interrupted Aug 11-17 and Aug 12-18. _ 5 _________ 11 _______ 2015 Feb 14-24 (Feb 14-20, 15-21, (( _ _ )) Feb 18-24 ... 1896 interrupted Feb 16-22, 17-23 and also tied 2015 for 15-21 (two interruptions, but stayed almost as cold as those intervening values, extends the entry above for 1907) _ 9 _________ 15 _______ 1907 May 20 - June 3 ( after May 24-30 (see above) two interruptions by 1930 then two more 1907 intervals ending June 2, 3). _______________________________________________ The total duration of the identified longer cold spells is 183 days plus about 10 from the extensions listed and another 12 from four robust three-day intervals with deep winter cold. That adds up to 205 days, slightly more than the warm analogue, although probably very similar since this one was extended a bit more freely. The "modal" very cold spell is probably also around 10 days long as a derived result of this analysis. 20-22 days seems to be an upper limit. This can be compared to the modal result for warm spells ... rather similar but capable of extending slightly longer by looks of the frequency analysis. It is unusual to see any cold spells giving way quickly to warmth or vice versa. One example was cold in late September 1947 quickly followed by record warmth in most of October. The spring of 1945 had a longer cycle but very warm weather in March-April gave way to very cold weather in May-June. Cold overnight weekly averages that can set records are rare in recent decades, only 25 of the 85 years 1936-2020 had any entries, accounting for a total of about 86 of the 366 coldest weeks (an average of one per year). The average for the 67 years ending 1935 was closer to four per year. ________________________________________________________ "Benchmark" average minima (lowest so late in season from arbitrary start of January 4 minimum value, reverses at summer's highest average minimum weekly average and from that point, second column shows the first occurrences of benchmark values ending with the lowest value again for Dec 29 to Jan 4 Average ____Weekly interval ______ Year ____________ Average ___ Weekly Interval _______ Year -4.86 _______Dec 29- Jan 4 _____ 1917-1918 _________ (62.00) ____ July 27-Aug 2 ________ 1920 (highest value, reversal point) -1.43 _______ Dec 30- Jan 5 _____ 1917-1918 __________ 59.00 _____ July 31 - Aug 6 ______ 1912 3.00 ________Feb 8 - 14 ___________1899 ______________ 58.86 _____ Aug 1 - 7 _____________ 1912 4.00 _______ Feb 9 - 15 ___________ 1899 ______________ 58.00 _____ Aug 2 - 8 ____________ 1886 6.29 _______ Feb 12-18 ____________1979 ______________ 57.86 ______ Aug 16-22 ___________ 1886 6.43 _______ Feb 16-22 ___________ 1896 ______________ 57.14 ______ Aug 17-23 ___________ 1886 9.43 _______ Feb 17-23 ___________ 1896 ______________ 56.43 _____ Aug 18-24 ___________ 1886 9.71 ________ Feb 20-26 __________ 1914 ______________ 55.86 ______ Aug 21-27 ___________ 1940 10.86 _______ Feb 23- Mar 1 ______ 1934 ______________ 55.71 _______ Aug 23-29 __________ 1940 11.14 ________ Feb 28- Mar 5 ______ 1884 ______________ 55.14 ______ Aug 25-31 ___________ 1887 11.71 ________ Mar 1 - 7 ____________ 1872 ______________ 55.00 ______ Aug 29 - Sep 4 ______ 1872 11.86 ________ Mar 17-23 __________ 1885 ______________ 54.57 ______ Aug 30 - Sep 5 ______ 1872 13.00 _______ Mar 18-24 __________ 1885 _______________ 54.43 _____ Aug 31 - Sep 6 _______ 1883 16.00 _______ Mar 19-25 __________ 1885 _______________ 53.43 ______ Sep 1 - 7 ____________ 1883 17.86 _______ Mar 20-26 ___________1885 _______________ 53.00 ______ Sep 2 - 8 ____________ 1883 19.43 _______ Mar 27 - Apr 2 ______ 1923 _______________51.14 _______ Sep 3 - 9 ____________ 1883 20.71 _______ Mar 28 - Apr 3 ______ 1923 _______________49.71 _______ Sep 4-10 ____________ 1883 25.57 _______ Mar 29 - Apr 4 ______ 1923 _______________48.86 ______ Sep 15-21 ____________1871 26.14 _______ Apr 2 - 8 ____________ 1881 _______________ 47.43 ______Sep 16-22 ____________ 1871 27.00 _______ Apr 3 - 9 ____________ 1881 _______________ 46.00 ______ Sep 17-23 ___________ 1875 27.14 ________Apr 16-22 ___________ 1875 _______________ 45.14 ______ Sep 18-24 ___________ 1875 27.43 ________Apr 17-23 ___________1875 _______________ 44.86 ______ Sep 22-28 ___________1947 28.57 ________Apr 18-24 __________ 1875 _______________ 43.57 ______ Sep 25 - Oct 1 _______1947 29.86 ________Apr 19-25 __________ 1875 _______________ 43.29 ______ Sep 26 - Oct 2 ______ 1947 32.57 ________Apr 20-26 __________ 1875 ________________41.71 ______ Sep 28 - Oct 4 _______1888 34.14 ________Apr 24-30 __________ 1874 ________________40.43 ______Oct 3 - 9 ____________ 1964 34.57 _______ Apr 25 - May 1 ______ 1874 ________________39.57 _____ Oct 4-10 _____________1964 34.71 ________Apr 26 - May 2 ______ 1874 ________________39.00 _____ Oct 10-16 ___________ 1876 34.86 _______ Apr 27 - May 3 ______ 1874 ________________38.43 _____ Oct 11-17 ____________ 1876 35.57 ________ Apr 28 - May 4 _____ 1874 ________________38.29 _____ Oct 12-18 ____________ 1876 37.57 ________ Apr 29 - May 5 _____ 1874 _________________38.00 _____ Oct 15-21 ____________1940 38.86 ________ Apr 30 - May 6 _____ 1874 ________________ 35.43 _____ Oct 16-22 ___________ 1940 39.71 ________ May 2 - 8 ___________ 1874 _________________35.14 _____ Oct 17-23 ____________ 1940 40.43 ________ May 7-13 ___________2020 ________________ 34.86 _____ Oct 24-30 ___________ 1869 40.57 _________May 8-14 __________ 2020 ________________ 33.57 _____ Oct 25-31 ____________ 1869 43.14 _________ May 10-16 _________ 1878 ________________ 32.71 ______ Oct 26 - Nov 1 _______ 1869 43.43 ________ May 11-17 __________ 1878 ________________ 32.29 ______ Oct 30 - Nov 5 ______ 1879 44.29 ________ May 12-18 __________ 1878 ________________29.71 _______Oct 31 -Nov 6 _______ 1879 45.14 _________ May 13-19 _________ 1882, 1895 __________29.00 ______ Nov 1 - 7 ____________ 1879 45.57 ________ May 20-26 _________ 1907 ________________ 27.14 _______ Nov 11-17 ___________ 1933 45.86 ________ May 21-27 _________ 1967 ________________ 26.29 _______ Nov 12-18 __________ 1883 46.71 _________ May 24-30 ________ 1907 ________________ 25.43 _______ Nov 16-22 __________ 1880 47.14 _________ May 26 - June 1 ___ 1930 ________________ 22.71 _______ Nov 17-23 __________ 1880 47.57 _________ May 31 - June 6 ___1945 ________________ 19.57 ________ Nov 18-24 __________ 1880 47.86 _________ June 1 - 7 _________ 1945 ________________ 18.86 ________ Nov 20-26 __________ 1880 49.57 _________ June 2 - 8 _________1945 ________________ 17.71 _________ Nov 21-27 __________ 1880 50.86 _________ June 3 - 9 ________ 1945 ________________ 16.43 ________ Nov 27 - Dec 3 _____ 1875 52.14 __________June 8-14 ________ 1980 _________________16.00 ________ Nov 28 - Dec 4 _____ 1875 53.14 __________June 10-16 _______ 1951 _________________ 15.43 ________ Dec 1 - 7 ____________1926 53.86 _________ June 11-17 ________ 1951 _________________14.29 ________ Dec 9-15 ____________ 1917 54.43 _________ June 13-19 _______ 1933 _________________13.29 ________ Dec 10-16 ___________ 1917 54.57 _________ June 20-26 _______ 1918 _________________11.57 _________ Dec 14-20 __________ 1919 55.29 _________ June 21-27 ________1940 _________________10.43 ________ Dec 15-21 ___________1942 56.43 _________ June 24-30 _______ 1893 _________________ 9.29 ________ Dec 16-22 __________ 1942 57.00 __________June 28 - July 4 __ 1888 __________________8.71 _________ Dec 21-27 _________ 1872 58.29 __________June 30 - July 6 __ 1940 _________________ 6.43 ________ Dec 22-28 _________ 1872 58.43 __________ July 12-18 _______ 1888 __________________ 5.29 ________ Dec 25-31 _________ 1917 59.43 __________ July 18-24 _______ 1890 __________________1.29 ________ Dec 26 - Jan 1 _____ 1917-18 ____________________________________________________________-1.00 ________ Dec 27 - Jan 2 ____ 1917-18 ____________________________________________________________-2.86 ________ Dec 28 - Jan 3 ____ 1917-18 (62.00 for July 27 - Aug 2 1920 is the reversal point) ____(-4.43 ______ Dec 29 - Jan 4 _ 1917-18 .. top of table) (to reduce complexity here, after July 18-24 1890, no further values appear until a downward trend begins in mid-August, as most values after that entry are in the 60s and the highest value is 62.00 for July 27 - Aug 2 1920.)

Meanwhile, here is a summary of the number of weekly intervals in each year that achieved highest or lowest values, for the primary stats of high max and low min (there are four other possible tables, low max, high min, high mean and low mean, that might follow after a while). TABLE 1: NUMBER OF WEEKLY INTERVALS THAT ACHIEVED HIGH MAXIMUM for each year (ties are 0.5, there is one case of a three-way tie in Nov) (weeks ending Jan 1-6 are assigned to year with majority of days and are marked * (1936, 1984x2) if they extend into next year ending Jan 1-3), and ** (2023x2, 2007) if they began in previous year (end Jan 4-6) As these cannot be directly read from the totals (months per decade), the actuals are posted in the relevant decades. All six are listed as ending in January in their decade (as are all cases straddling two months, listed by end date). Only the warmer of the two subsets (leap years, non leap years) ending March 1 to 6 count for this table. Monthly counts after decade totals are generated by end dates only (some days in some intervals can be in adjacent months) The random expectation is 2.4 per year and 24.1 per decade, 2.0 per month within decades. YEAR ENDING 0 __ 1 __ 2 __ 3 __ 4 __ 5 __ 6 __ 7 __ 8 __ 9 ___ decade total __ monthly count (total) decade ... (1869) ______________________________________ 0 _____ 0.0 ____ J_F_M__A_M_J__J_A_S__ O_N_D 1870s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 4.0 ____ 0_ 0_0__ 0_2_0__ 0_0_0 _ 0_2_0 1880s _________6 __ 5 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 15.0 ____ 0_ 0_2__ 2_4_2__ 0_0_2__3_0_0 1890s _________0 __ 1.5__ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 3 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 11.5 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_3.5_ 0_3_5 _ 0_0_0 1900s _________0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 2.0 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 2_0_0__ 0_0_0 1910s _________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 __ 4 __ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 7.0 ____ 2_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 0_0_5__ 0_0_0 1920s _________0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 2 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 11.0 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_8__ 0_0_0__ 2_1_0 1930s _________5 __ 6 __ 6 __ 3.5 _ 0 __ 0 __ 1*__ 0 __ 2 __ 0 _____23.5 ___8_1_0__ 0_4_0__ 0_2.5_4__2_2 0 _ 1936-37* (1) count for 1936 1940s _________0 __ 1.5 _ 0 __ 2 __ 4 _ 5.5 _ 7.5 _ 9 __ 4 __ 2 ____ 35.5 ___1_0_7__ 0.5_0_2__ 0_8_0__13.5_2.5_1 1950s ________2.83_ 1 __ 0 __12 __ 4 __ 4 __ 0 _ 5.5__ 0 __2.5___ 31.83 ___1_1_0__ 0_0_5.5 _ 1_6_6__ 3.5_5.83_2 1960s _________0 __0.33 _8 __ 3 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 8 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0____ 21.33 ___1_0_0__3_6_2 __ 6_0_0__ 3 _0.5_0 1970s _________4 __ 0 __ 1 __ 4 __ 1 __ 3 _ 9.5 __ 4 __ 0 __ 4 ____ 30.5 ____ 3_1_4__ 5_3_1__ 4_1.5_1__ 0_7 _0 1980s _________1.5 _3 __ 2 __7.5 _ 7* *_2 __ 0.5 _ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____23.5 ____ 2_4_0__ 1.5_0_4__ 3_3_3__ 0_0_ 3 _1984-85* (2) count for 1984 1990s _______ 13.5_20 _ 0 _ 10 _ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 16 __ 5 _____ 64.5 ___ 4_11_ 7 __7_4.5_2__13_1_0__ 2_3_10 2000s ________ 3 _ 8.5 _ 10.5 _ 0 __ 1 __ 1 __ 2 __ 4**_ 2 __2.5____ 34.5 ____ 7 _3_2__ 3_7.5_0_ 0_6_1 _ 2_1_2 _ 2006-07** (1) counts for 2007 2010s _________5 __ 1 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 14 _ 4 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 _____31.0 ____ 0_ 2_ 8_ 4_ 0_ 0_ 2_0_ 2 _ 0_0_13 2020s _________4 __1 _1.33_13** ** 0 _ ( 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0) ___ 19.33____2 _6_ 1_ 4_0_ 0__ 0_ 0_1 _ 0_5.33_0_ _ 2022-23 ** (2) count for 2023 _____________ ^^2020-2024 Apr 1 _(future years of 2025-29)^^ (366.0) ^ 2022-23 intervals ending 4 and 5 Jan replaced 1992-93**, 1999-2000** (tied but in same decade) and 2004-05 ** ___________________________________________________________________________________ Most weekly intervals warmest on record: 1991_ 20 ... 1998_16 ... 2015_ 14.0 ... 1990_ 13.5 ... 2023_ 13 ... 1953_ 12 ... 2002_ 10.5 ... 1993_ 10 ... 1976_ 9.5 LOG of ANNUAL DATA (by months) ___________ Totals for 30-year intervals 1877 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___2 1879 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0 ___ 2 1880 0 0 2 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1881 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 3 0 0 ___ 5 1886 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1888 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1891 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1.5_0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1.5 1895 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1896 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 1898 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1874-1903 (1/5 of data, average 71.2, approx 6 per mo) 1901 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 _________ 0 0 2 _ 2 6 5.5_ 2 3 7 _ 3 2 0 ___ 32.5 1914 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1915 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1916 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1922 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1923 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1925 0 0 0 _ 0 0 6 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1928 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 1 0 ___ 1 1930 0 1 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 1931 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 2 0 ___ 6 1932 6 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1904-1933 1933 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2.5 0_0 0 0 ___ 3.5 ________9 1 0 _ 0 4 8 _ 0 2.5 9 _ 2 3 0 ___ 38.5 1936 1* 0 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 (* ends Jan 1 1937) 1938 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1941 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _1.5 0 0 ___1.5 1943 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1944 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1945 0 0 5 _0.5 0 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___5.5 1946 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _2 2.5 1 __ 7.5 1947 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 8 0 0 ___ 9 1948 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1949 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1950 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _0 2.83 0__2.83 1951 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1953 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 1 6 _ 0 3 2 ___ 12 1954 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 3 0 0 ___ 4 1955 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 3 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1957 0 0 0 _ 0 0 5.5_ 0 0 0_ 0 0 0 ___ 5.5 1959 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0_ 0.5 0 0 ___ 2.5 1961 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0.33 0__ 0.33 1962 0 0 0 _ 3 5 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 8 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1934-1963 1963 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 3 0 0 ___ 3 __________ 3 1 7 _ 3.5 5 7.5 _ 1 14 6 _ 22 8.67 3 ___ 81.67 1965 0 0 0 _ 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1966 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 6 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 8 1967 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1970 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1972 0 0 0.5_0 0 0 _0 0.5 0_ 0 0 0___ 1 1973 3 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1974 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1975 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 ___ 3 1976 0 1 2.5_5 0 0 _ 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 9.5 1977 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1979 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 ___ 4 1980 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _1 0.5 0_ 0 0 0 ___ 1.5 1981 0 2 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 1982 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 ___ 2 1983 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _2 2.5 3_ 0 0 0 ___ 7.5 1984 2* 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 ___ 7 (* two end Jan 1985 count for 1984) 1985 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1986 0 0 0 _ 0.5 0 0_ 0 0 0 _0 0 0 ___ 0.5 1990 0 4 5 _ 0 0.5 0 _0 0 0 _2 0 2 ___13.5 1991 0 7 1 _ 4 4 2 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 20 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1964-1993 1993 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 7 0 0 _ 0 3 0 ___10 __________ 6 16 10 _ 10.5 8.5 9 _ 22 4.5 4 _ 2 10 5 _____107.5 1998 4 0 1 _ 3 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 8 ___ 16 1999 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 4 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 2000 0 0 1 _ 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 2001 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 1.5 0_ 0 1 2 ___ 8.5 2002 2 2 0 _ 2 0 0 _0 4.5 0 _0 0 0 ___10.5 2004 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2005 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2006 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 2007 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 4 2008 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 2009 0 0 0 _ 1 1.5 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2.5 2010 0 0 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 2011 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2012 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 2015 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 13 __ 14 2016 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 2017 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 2020 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 ___4 2021 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2022 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0_ 0 1.33 0_ 1.33 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1994-2023 2023 2 6 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 13 __________ 13 11 12 _ 14 7.5 0 _ 6 7 4 _ 2 6.33 23 ___ 105.83 Longest consecutive groups of weekly intervals including all cases 4 or more (=10+ days) (2 would imply an 8-day warm spell, 3 would imply 9 days, etc) (No. ints. = number of intervals, when any are tied the count entered into the table above is also shown in brackets) No. ints. __ days ____ year, and start, end dates overall _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 1947 Oct 16-29 (Oct 16-22 to Oct 23-29 intervals) _ first of these prevented 1963 from reaching 4 (10). 1963 often close during 1947 run. _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 1998 Nov 27 - Dec 10 (Nov 27-Dec 3 to Dec 4-10 intervals) _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 2015 Dec 8-21 (Dec 8-14 to Dec 15-21 intervals) see also 5 int spell a few days later _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1953 Aug 25 - Sep 6 (Aug 25-31 to Aug 31-Sep 6 intervals) _ almost equalled by 1973 similar timing (about 2 deg cooler) _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1991 Jan 29 - Feb 10 (Jan 29-Feb 4 to Feb 4-10 intervals) _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1993 July 4-16 (July 4-10 to July 10-16 intervals) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1925 May 30-June 10 (May 30-June 5 to June 4-10 intervals) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1932 Jan 9-20 (Jan 9-15 to 14-20 intervals) _ 6 (5.5) ___ 12 _______ 1957 June 11-22 (June 11-17 to June 16-22 intervals) tied 1891 first of these intervals _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1966 June 27 - July 8 (June 27 - July 3 to July 2-8 intervals) _ (a) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 2023 Feb 9-20 (Feb 9-15 to 14-20 intervals) _ 5 (4.5) ___ 11 _______ 1946 Oct 24 - Nov 3 (Oct 24-30 to Oct 28-Nov 3 intervals) _ last interval a tie with 1950 _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1962 May 15-25 (May 15-21 to May 19-25 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1976 Apr 14-24 (Apr 14-20 to Apr 18-24 intervals) ^ _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1990 Mar 9-19 (Mar 9-15 to 13-19 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1999 July 22 - Aug 1 (July 22-28 to July 26-Aug 1 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 2015 Dec 19-29 (Dec 19-25 to Dec 23-29 intervals) _ 3d interruption in 22d spell Dec 8-29, 2015 within 2 deg. _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 2020 Nov 4-14 (Nov 4-10 to Nov 8-14 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1880 May 20-29 (May 20-26 to May 23-29 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1895 Sep 17-26 (Sep 17-23 to Sep 20-26 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1915 Sep 11-20 (Sep 11-17 to Sep 14-20 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1931 Sep 7-16 (Sep 7-13 to Sep 10-16 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1930 May 1 - 10 (May 1-7 to May 4-10 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1944 Aug 8-17 (Aug 8-14 to Aug 11-17 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1948 Aug 21-30 (Aug 21-27 to Aug 24-30 intervals) _ 4 (3.0) ___ 10 _______ 1950 Oct 28 - Nov 6 (Oct 28-Nov 3 to Oct 31-Nov 6 intervals) _ first tied 1946, last tied 1961 _ 4 (3.5) ___ 10 _______ 1976 Feb 23-Mar 4 (Feb 23-29 to Feb 27-Mar 4, last int tied 1972) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1977 July 13-22 (July 13-19 to July 16-22 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1979 Nov 20-29 (Nov 20-26 to Nov 23-29 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1984 June 5 to 14 (Jun 5-11 to Jun 8-14 intervals) ... was very close second at both ends _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1990 Feb 5-14 (Feb 5-11 to 8-14 intervals) ... lost a day to 2023 see above _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1991 Apr 4-13 (Apr 4-10 to 7-13 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1991 May 24-June 2 (May 24-30 to May 27-June 2 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1998 Jan 2-11 (Jan 2-8 to 5-11 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1998 Mar 25-Apr 3 (Mar 25-31 to Mar 28-Apr 3 intervals) * _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2001 Apr 27 - May 6 (Apr 27-May 3 to Apr 30-May 6 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2010 Mar 31-Apr 9 (Mar 31-Apr 6 to Apr 3-9 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2012 Mar 17-26 (Mar 17-23 to Mar 20-26 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2016 Mar 5-14 (Mar 5-11 to 8-14 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2023 Apr 8-17 (Apr 8-14 to 11-17 intervals) * erased 6 int, 12 day spell from 1945, first two intervals remain from that, last four broken by 1998. ^ 2002 had a similar run of three intervals before this one and finished just slightly below the value for the first 1976 interval. (a) 1966 extends to 10 intervals, 16d with 1901 ahead for third and fourth, covering June 23 to July 8. Intensity in 1966 dropped slightly when 1901 ahead, but avg above 91F. (interrupted by one interval from another year) _ 5 _________ 11 _______ 2002 Jan 23-Feb 2 (Jan 23-29, 24-30, (( _ )) Jan 26-Feb 1, Jan 27-Feb 2 ... 1947 interrupted Jan 25-31) These longer warm intervals add up to a total of 203 weekly intervals or over half the calendar year. Two and three consecutive spells are quite frequent also. The "modal" very warm spell is probably around 10 days long as a derived result of this analysis. 20-23 days seems to be an upper limit. ________________________________________________________ "Benchmark" average maxima (highest so early in season from arbitrary start of January maximum, reverses at summer max value, 98.43 (July 15-21, 1977) from that point, second column shows the latest occurrences of benchmark values ending with the highest value of late December) Average ____ Weekly interval ______ Year ______________ Average ___ Weekly Interval _______ Year 59.86 _______ Jan 12-18 ___________ 1932 _______________ (98.43) ____ July 15-21 ___________ 1977 60.29 _______ Feb 18-24 ___________ 2017 _______________ 98.29 ______ Aug 28-Sep 3 _______ 1953 63.29 _______ Feb 19-25 ___________ 1930 _______________ 97.14 _______ Aug 29-Sep 4 _______ 1953 64.86 _______ Mar 6-12 ____________ 2016 _______________ 95.29 ______ Aug 30-Sep 5 _______ 1953 67.43 ________Mar 7-13 _____________2016 _______________ 93.29 ______ Aug 31-Sep 6 _______ 1953 70.29 ________Mar 10-16 ___________ 1990 _______________ 92.14 _______ Sep 5-11 ____________ 1983 73.00 ________Mar 11-17 ____________ 1990 _______________91.00 _______ Sep 9-15 ____________ 1931 73.57 ________Mar 24-30 ___________ 1945 _______________89.43 ______ Sep 10-16 ___________ 1931 75.57 ________Mar 25-31 ___________ 1998 _______________ 89.29 ______ Sep 20-26 __________ 1895 78.43 _______ Mar 26-Apr 1 ________ 1998 ________________87.57 _______ Sep 21-27 __________ 1970 79.14 ________ Apr 10-16 ___________ 2023 80.86 _______ Apr 12-18 ____________ 2002 _______________ 85.57 ______ Sep 23-29 __________ 1881 85.43 _______ Apr 13-19 ____________ 2002 _______________ 85.43 ______ Sep 25-Oct 1 _______ 1881 86.29 _______ Apr 15-21 ____________ 1976 ________________ 83.43 ______ Sep 26-Oct 2 _______1881 86.86 _______ May 18-24 ___________ 1962 ________________82.71 ______ Sep 29-Oct 5 _______ 1922 87.29 _______ May 21-27 ____________ 1880 _______________ 82.29 _____ Oct 3 - 9 _____________2007 87.71 _______ May 22-28 ____________ 1880 ________________81.00 ______ Oct 4-10 ______1959, 2007 88.14 _______ May 24-30 ____________1991 ________________ 80.86 ______ Oct 6-12 ___________ 1990 89.00 _______ May 25-31 ____________1991 ________________ 80.43 ______ Oct 8-14 ___________ 1949 90.14 _______ May 28-June 3 _______ 1895 ________________ 80.29 ______ Oct 9-15 ___________ 1954 93.00 _______ May 31-June 6 _______ 1925 ________________ 80.14 ______ Oct 10-16 __________ 1954 95.00 _______ June 1-7 ______________ 1925 ________________ 79.43 _____ Oct 15-21 __________ 1963 95.71 ________ June 27-July 3 _______ 1966 ________________ 78.14 ______ Oct 17-23 _________ 1947 96.29 ________ July 4-10 ____________ 1993 ________________ 76.00 ______ Oct 18-24 _________ 1947 96.57 _________ July 5-11 ____________ 1993 ________________ 75.71 _______ Oct 25-31 _________ 1946 97.00 _________ July 6-12 ____________1993 _________________ 74.86 ______ Oct 27-Nov 2 ______1946 98.00 _________ July 7-13 ___________ 1993 _________________ 74.14 ______ Oct 29-Nov 4 ______1950 98.43 _________ July 15-21 ___________1977 _________________ 73.29 ______ Oct 30-Nov 5 _____ 1950 _____________________________________________________________ 73.14 _______ Nov 3-9 ___________1975 _____________________________________________________________ 72.57 _______ Nov 6-12 _________ 2020 _____________________________________________________________ 69.71 ________Nov 7-13 _________ 2020 _____________________________________________________________ 68.14 _______ Nov 17-23 ________ 1953 _____________________________________________________________ 67.29 ________Dec 1-7 ___________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 65.86 _______ Dec 2-8 __________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 63.57 _______ Dec 3-9 __________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 63.43 _______ Dec 9-15 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 63.14 _______ Dec 10-16 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 63.00 _______ Dec 11-17 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 62.86 _______ Dec 21-27 ________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 61.43 _______ Dec 22-28 ________ 2015 ___________________ (next entry would be first entry above, Jan 12-18 1932) or (59.71 Jan 3-9 1998) with a reversal. (similar analysis to follow for low minima)

George would have won if it was where I live (112F June 30th).

The last two posts appear to be somewhat in coded format, meanwhile I added some further info to my last post to show who would win the contest at all currently possible outcomes of 22 and 23 named storms. Some outcomes are no longer possible, you can't add more hurricanes or majors than named storms to 19/7/4 (unless Peter came back to life as a hurricane). I am happy to answer any formulated questions about the scoring but it was explained in June and the reason why named storms are not given as large an error rating as the other two categories is because last year the equal weighted system we used in all other years crashed out and only one forecaster even had a positive total because of the huge error stats for the named storm portion. So I devised this less punitive (but still expanding exponentially as I think it should) system ... you do of course realize that the 40-30-30 category scoring is just for illustration, I could have made it 30-35-35 and come up with the same totals, or stuck to 100 minus total error. Also I hope people realize that the first set of scores only apply to the current situation and are not contest "standings" in any other sense.

Not yet, could eventually but you and I have almost the same forecasts and we're nearly bottom of the scoring table until we do get up around 23 named storms, then the problem will be that from 19/7/4 the most optimistic outcome would be 23/11/8 and a more realistic one is 23/9/5. From 23/11/7 (or even 24/11/7) our scores would be 3-4 still behind two lower named storm forecasts who would have smaller error totals on H/M. The named storm errors only cut in half as much as the H and M errors. If we get to 25/11/7 then we do get into a narrow lead. For you to pass me, there would have to be 14 or more hurricanes, our errors are the same on the other two, and realistic counts that reach 14 hurricanes go well above the 25 named storms from McIntosh who has a higher major prediction so you can still finish ahead of McIntosh up to around 27/14/8, the H count will not matter but above 27/8 on the others would favor McIntosh. We are of course nowhere near those numbers yet and probably won't add enough H or M for us to be too concerned about it anyway although we could easily verify our 23 as best sub-forecasts. I have an excel file to back up the scoring (confessing that I did the first table in my head then decided to call in Mr Excel to help me out. It was relatively easy to calculate scores for all options that can still verify (from 19/7/4, for example 25/14/10 of McIntosh cannot quite verify and our two forecasts cannot exactly verify as we need six more hurricanes from four named storms. So for the possible options of 21 and 22 named storms, you can see in the table above who would win the contest if that's where the numbers end up. For the 23 options this is what I see as possible and the highest scores calculated by the excel program ... For the last set of options I show scores for myself and Tezeta as we begin to close in on the leaders at that point. 22 7 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (97.0) ______________ 23 7 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (96.5) 22 8 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.0) ______________ 23 8 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.5) 22 8 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.0) ______________ 23 8 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (97.5) 22 9 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (100.0) _____________ 23 9 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.5) 22 9 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.0) _______________23 9 5 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.5) 22 9 6 ___ Newman 21 10 5 (97.5) ______________________ 23 9 6 ___ IntenseWind007, Newman, JKeithLee (tied 96.5) 22 10 4 __ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (99.0) ______________ 23 10 4 ___ IntenseWind007 22 9 4 (98.5) 22 10 5 __ Newman 21 10 5 (99.5) _____________________ 23 10 5 ___ Newman 21 10 5 (98.5) 22 10 6 __ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (99.0) ____________ 23 10 6 ___ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (98.5) 22 10 7 __ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (98.0) ____________ 23 10 7 ___ SouthMDwatcher 22 11 6 (97.5) _______________________________________________________23 11 4 ___ IntenseWind, SouthMD tied (96.5) RS 91 Tez 88 _______________________________________________________23 11 5 ___ SouthMDwatcher (98.5) RS 94 Tez 91 _______________________________________________________23 11 6 ___ SouthMDwatcher (99.5) RS 96 Tez 93 _______________________________________________________23 11 7 ___ SouthMDwatcher (98.5) RS 97 Tez 94 _______________________________________________________23 11 8 ___ SouthMDwatcher (96.5) RS 96 Tez 93 (so Tezeta, we are blocked by SouthMDwatcher all the way to the top of the 23 named storm pile although we gradually get closer to the top). Above 23 named storms, you would figure the count almost surely must add some H and M so I won't bother to list these yet, and the plausible ones start probably around 24/10/5. (edit Oct 2, the fact that Victor did not become a hurricane eliminates the 22 10 x and 23 11 x options from the possible outcomes). (edit Oct 31, now that Wanda has arrived, could possibly become a hurricane but unlikely to be a major hurricane, 22 9 6, 23 10 7 options are eliminated).

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 normal values ... for ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z Friday Oct 1st )

Contest now declared final, order of finish as follows ... (note rules to break ties as announced June 12th) Scoring: same as other years, the sum of your departures from final seasonal max numbers. However, I will announce in advance that in the case of a tie (for any position) the order will be determined as follows: (a) smallest maximum error (separates 3rd, 4th; 5th, 6th; 7th and 8th below, also 13th-14th from 15th-16th, then also 19th and 20th, and 21st from 22nd-23rd, finally 24th and 25th.) (b) if necessary, second smallest error (defined as smallest of three errors left to separate after (a) eliminated) _ was required to separate 9th and 10th, and 15th, 16th. (c) if still tied, earliest entry (regardless of edit times if applicable since not visible to readers) _ required to separate 13th and 14th which were identical entries, and 17th, 18th as well as 22nd, 23rd which were not identical but survived both (a) and (b) tests. CONTEST RESULTS _ ties broken as per rules above, showing which rule applied in each tiebreaker Rank __ FORECASTER _________ DCA _IAD _BWI _ RIC _______ Total error _________ Outcome ______________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 96 _ 1 ___ tplbge (19) ______________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____________ 5 _ 2 ___ biodhokie (17) ___________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102 ___________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 6 _ 3 ___ GATech (23) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 7 _ 4 ___ mattie g (4) ______________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 7 _ 5 ___ nw baltimore wx (8) ______98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 8 _ 6 ___ A777 (21) _______________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 __________________________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4 _____________ 8 _ 7 ___ MNTransplant (19) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 _____________ 10 _ 8 ___ Roger Ramjet (22) ______ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ___________________________________2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 6 ____________ 10 _ 9 ___ WxWatcher007 (20) ____ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 11 _10 ___Wxdavis5784 (11) _______ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 11 _11 ___GramaxRefugee (12) ____ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100 ___________________________________4 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____________ 13 _12 ___storm pc (9) ____________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 5 _____________ 14 (13) _ Consensus (mean of 26) _101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ___________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____________ 14 _13 ___CAPE (1) ________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 _14 ___WxUSAF (7) _____________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 _15 ___NorthArlington101 (14) _ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104 _________________________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 8 ____________ 16 _16 ___yoda (15) _______________ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 8 ____________ 16 _17 ___toolsheds (16) __________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101 __________________________________ 7 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____________ 17 _18 ___Weather53 (25) __________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 17 _19 ___Roger Smith (--) _________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 18 _20 ___Rhino16 (3) _____________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 9 ____________ 18 _21 ___SnowenOutThere (24) ___101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 19 _22 ___wxdude64 (5) ___________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 19 _23 ___Prince Frederick Wx (10)_ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 8 __________ 19 _24 ___H2O (13) ________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___ 7 ___________ 20 _25 ___MillvilleWx (6) ___________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103 __________________________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____________ 20 _26 ___vastateofmind (11) ______104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 7 ____________ 21 _27 ___George BM (2) __________107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108 __________________________________10 ___ 6 ___ 8 ___ 12 ___________ 36 ___________________________________________________________________ (Numbers in brackets after forecaster name indicate order of entry). ===================================================== Congrats to tplbge (or as I cannot pronounce your name and need something familiar, triple bogey). Brave try for second place biodhokie who got three of four right on. Tiebreaker required to establish third place (GA tech) and fourth (mattie g). _ until next summer, stay cool _

This contest is now declared final, congrats to ** wxallannj in first place (total 30 error points) ** hudsonvalley21 in second (total 32 error points) ** BKViking in third (total 33 error points) (Tom only forecaster to have two of the ten locations without error points, most of us had one).

Tracking actual scores as the contest approaches its end phase The scoring system was explained earlier, basically you lose only half as many points from your base score of 100 for named storm errors as you lose for hurricane and major errors. The named storm error reduction is one quarter the value of (error) + (error squared). For example, you lose 1.5 for an error of 2 ... ( 2 + 4 ) / 4 That same error for hurricanes or majors would cost you three points ( 2 + 4) / 2. To make the scoring a bit easier to follow, I will arbitrarily assign 40 to named storms and 30 each to hurricanes and majors. You can go into negative scoring territory, but no forecast is currently there. This is the same as applying all three reductions to 100 but gives us a visual comparison for the three categories. These scores are now in scoring order for the current count. Tracking the scores as we approach the end, you will see your current score from the known count (sometimes including 2-4 day forecast developments which will be tagged and adjusted if they don't come to pass). Then off to the right of your current score will be potential scores for the next two systems in whatever combination they appear -- they can only add 1 0 0, 1 1 0, 1 1 1, then 2 0 0, 2 1 0, 2 1 1, 2, 2, 0, 2 2 1 or 2 2 2 so there will be nine potential scores. And of course, there could be more than two more systems so even this won't tell you everything about final outcomes (by November it might). note: scores in the table currently based on 21/7/4 after Wanda's recent designation. ... also 21/8/4 score was retained in the table in case Wanda became a hurricane (it did not but I left the column in for your interest, or in case there's a last minute re-classification about that or any other system in the contest year) ... those would become current contest scores if so and 21/7/4 scores would be removed from table. __ __ FC = future counts (possible) for remaining 22 storm outcomes ___ ___ ___ current contest scores are in green (first total scoring column) FORECASTER __________ Predictions __ Scores (40 30 30 TOT) 2174 (2184) __ 2274 2284 2285 2294 2295 1 wxdude64 _____________19 ___ 7 ___ 4 _____ 38.5 _30 __30__ 98.5 _ (97.5)___ 97.0_ 96.0_ 95.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ 2 J_Keith_Lee ___________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4 ______40 __ 27 __30__ 97.0_ (99.0) ___ 96.5_ 98.5_ 97.5_ 99.5_ 98.5_ t3 IntenseWind002 _______22 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____39.5 _27 __30 __ 96.5_ (98.5) ___97.0_ 99.0_98.0_100.0_99.0 t3 WxWatcher007 _______ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ______39.5 _27 __30__ 96.5_ (98.5)___ 95.5_ 97.5_ 96.5_ 98.5_ 97.5_ t3 BKViking ______________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____ 39.5 _27 __30__ 96.5_ (98.5) ___ 95.5_ 97.5_ 96.5_ 98.5_ 97.5_ t5* snowlover2 ____________18 ___ 8 ___ 4 ______ 37 __29 __30__ 96.0 _ (97.0)___ 94.0_ 95.0_ 94.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ t5* Iceresistance __________18 ___ 7 ___ 3 _______ 37 __30 __29__ 96.0 _ (95.0)___ 94.0_ 93.0_ 91.0_ 91.0_ 89.0_ 7 NCforecaster89 _______19 ___ 9 ___ 4 _______38.5 _27 __30 __ 95.5_ (97.5)___ 94.0_ 96.0_ 95.0_ 97.0_ 96.0_ 8 Tom ___________________19 ___ 9 ___ 3 _______ 38.5 _27 __29 __ 94.5_ (96.5)___ 93.0_ 95.0_ 93.0_ 96.0_ 94.0_ 9 TexMexWx ___________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4 _______ 38.5 _27 __30 __ 94.0 _ (96.0)__ 92.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ 95.0_ 94.0_ (t 9) _ "Expert consensus" _17 ___ 8 ___ 4 _______35 __ 29 __30 __ 94.0 _(95.0)___ 91.5_ 92.5_ 91.5_ 91.5_ 90.5_ t10 Newman _____________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5 ________40 __ 24 __29__ 93.0_ (96.0) ___ 92.5_ 95.5_ 96.5_ 97.5_ 98.5_ t10 CatLady ______________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3 _______ 37 __ 27 __29__ 93.0 _(95.0) ___ 91.0_ 93.0_ 91.0_ 94.0_ 92.0_ t10 TARCweather _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3 _______ 35 __ 29 __29__ 93.0_ (94.0) ___ 90.5_ 91.5_ 89.5_ 90.5_ 88.5_ ____ NOAA median _____ 16.5 ___8 ___ 4 ________ 36.1__29 __30__ 92.8 _(93.8)___ 90.1 _ 91.1_ 90.1 _ 90.1_ 89.1_ __ consensus __________ 19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7 _____ 38.7_24.7 _29.4__ 92.8_(95.6)___ 91.4_ 94.2_ 94.6_ 96.0_ 96.4_ t13 RJay _________________20 __ 10 ___ 5 _______ 39.5 _24 __29 __ 92.5_ (95.5) ___ 91.5_ 94.5_ 95.5_ 96.5_ 97.5_ t13 magpiemaniac _______19 __ 10 ___ 4 _______ 38.5 _24 __30 __ 92.5_ (95.5) ___ 91.0_ 94.0_ 93.0_ 96.0_ 95.0_ 15 cptcatz ________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4 _______ 35 __ 27 __30 __ 92.0 _(94.0)___ 89.5_ 91.5_ 90.5_ 92.5_ 91.5_ 16 Looking to the skies __ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7 _______ 38.5 _ 29 __24 __ 91.5_ (92.5)___ 90.0_ 91.0_ 94.0_ 90.0_ 93.0_ 17 NorthHillsWx _________ 17 ___ 9 ___ 3 ________ 35 __ 27 __29 __ 91.0 _(93.0)___ 88.5_ 90.5_ 88.5_ 91.5_ 89.5_ 18 Rhino16 _______________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4 _______ 35 __ 24 __30 __ 89.0 _ (92.0)___ 86.5_ 89.5_ 88.5_ 91.5_ 90.5_ 19 Yoda __________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5 _______ 32.5 __27__29 __ 88.5 _(90.5)___ 85.5_ 87.5_ 88.5_ 88.5_ 89.5_ 20 Ldub ___________________19 __ 11 ___ 5 ________ 38.5 _ 20__29 __ 87.5_ (91.5) ___ 86.0_ 90.0_ 91.0_ 93.0_ 94.0_ 21 hudsonvalley21 _______ 21 __ 11 ___ 6 ________ 40 __ 20__ 27 __ 87.0_ (91.0) ___ 86.5_ 90.5_ 92.5_ 93.5_ 95.5_ t22 LoboLeader1 __________15 ___ 9 ___ 4 ________ 29.5__27__30 __ 86.5 _(88.5)___ 83.0_ 85.0_ 84.0_ 86.0_ 85.0_ t22 Southmdwatcher _____ 22 __ 11 ___ 6 ________ 39.5 _20 __27 __ 86.5_ (90.5) ___ 87.0_ 91.0_ 93.0_ 94.0 _96.0 24 Brian5671 _____________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2 ________ 39.5 _ 15 __27 __ 81.5_ (86.5) ___ 80.5_ 85.5_ 82.5_ 89.5_ 86.5_ 25 DonSutherland1 ________19 __ 12 ___ 6 ________ 38.5 _ 15 __27 __ 80.5_ (85.5) ___ 79.0_ 84.0_ 86.0_ 88.0_ 90.0_ 26 Roger Smith ___________ 23 __ 13 ___ 7 ________ 38.5 __ 9 __24 __ 71.5_ (77.5) ___ 72.5_ 78.5_ 81.5_ 83.5 _86.5 27 Prospero _______________14 __ 11 ___ 7 __________26___ 20 __24 __ 70.0 _(74.0)___ 66.0_ 70.0_ 73.0_ 73.0_ 76.0_ 28 Tezeta _________________ 23 __ 14 ___ 7 ________38.5 __ 2 __24 __ 64.5_ (71.5) ___ 65.5_ 72.5_ 75.5_ 78.5 _81.5 29 Macintosh _____________ 25 __ 14 __ 10 _______ 35 ___ 2 ___ 9 __ 46.0_ (53.0) ___ 48.0_ 55.0_ 61.0_ 61.0 _67.0 (scoring S H M counts) ______________________________________2174 _ (2184) _____2274_2284_2285_2294_2295_ reductions for error (H, M 30) 1 3 6 10 15 21 28 (S 40 minus 0.5 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.5 10.5 14.0) * note: ranks for non-member forecasts (NOAA, expert consensus, and consensus) do not change contest ranks. * note also ranks after t3 (three forecasts) jog by one position upward, as two of the forecasts in that group of three are identical, so as a contest entrant points out, further ranks should perhaps be for distinct forecast entries rather than numbers of people. So there are 29 ranks now for 30 forecasts. Future possible count scoring leaders in bold type. _________________________________________________________________ THIS TABLE WILL BE UPDATED AFTER EACH NEW STORM. Oct 31 update _ The count is now 21 7 4 as shown, and remaining options for 21 8 4 and five possible outcomes for 22 storms are now in the table. The situation for counts of 23 can be reviewed in another post (scroll down) at this point.

With regard to that listing of 80 degree seasons at NYC, here's a breakdown of the 30-year averages. This shows both 1871-1900 and 1869-1900 which have the same averages within 0.1 (A), then 1901-30 (B), 1931-60 (C), 1961-90 (D) and 1991-2020 (E). The overall average of 152 seasons is also shown in bold type (F). The calendar dates shown are for non leap years, go one day earlier to apply to leap years. I derived an actual average duration (of 80 and + seasons) for all leap years and found that it was almost five days shorter (duration) than the overall data, so one would expect the actual leap year data set to have narrower extremes. However the sample size may account for that kind of internal variation in the data. 80 and + seasons ________________________________________ >80 seasons ____________________ _____________ A ______ B ____ C ____ D ____ E ____ F ________ A _____ B _____ C _____ D _____ E _____ F start date _ May 3 _ Apr 30 _ Apr 30 _ Apr 21 _ Apr 20 _ Apr 27 <<>>May 6 _ May 4 __ Apr 30 _ Apr 22 _ Apr 23 _ Apr 29 end date __ Sep 24 _Sep 30 _Oct 10 _ Oct 5 _ Sep 30 _ Oct 2 <<..>>Sep 19 _ Sep 28 _ Oct 7 __ Oct 3 __ Sep 26 _ Sep 28 duration ___ 143 __ 153 ___ 162 ___ 166 __ 162 __ 157 <<....>> _135 __ 146 ___ 159 ___ 163 __ 154 __ 151 __________________ Some interesting trends emerge from this. The season was getting longer until around the 1960s, but while the onset continued to advance or at least remain static, the end of these seasons began to pull back towards the earlier termination dates seen around the second interval 1901-30. My guess is that it won't continue to do that for 2021-50, but the phenomenon of record warmth in late autumn seems to have peaked around the 1960s while that of early spring warmth has shown a tendency to be more evenly distributed since about 1930. The differential between 80 and + and the >80 seasons was smaller when they lasted longer, and I noticed while compiling the table a tendency for quite a few years to end with a much higher reading than 80, a few actually ended their 80+ or >80 seasons with a 90 degree reading. By the way, the longest 90 deg season was way back in 1927 (first date Apr 20, 90F and last Oct 2, 90F). That was a season of 164 days. The second longest was 1939 (first May 7, 92F and last Oct 10, 91F). That season was 155 days. 2010 went from Apr 7 to Sep 9 but had an 89 deg reading on Sep 26.

Is there any research on connections between the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the El Nino or more broadly the SOI ? Reason I ask is that a lot of the more recent warmings (since 1980) seem to be driven by strong El Nino events, so is there any reason to think that greenhouse gases can influence that cycle? Not trying to say that the recent warming is just a natural product of strong El Nino events because I can see the broader warming signal but it would be interesting to know if anyone has looked into this aspect. Also, related question, what are peoples' thoughts on air mass modification? Is the warming entirely due to a shift in air mass frequency or is it a combination of that and air mass modification? My subjective opinion on that is that air masses are being modified at a lower rate than the overall warming, which relies more on the shift in frequency. As we saw in Feb 2015, if cold arctic air can dominate a month, then it turns out almost as cold as record months of the past. But that frequency of arctic air that we "enjoyed" (perhaps the wrong word) up to around the early 1980s has definitely dropped off in recent decades.

1882 is probably the winner, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 31 and the last one was Sep 20. That is 111 days using the counting method in the tables already posted by others (it works out to the number of days between the end dates so not including either of them, if you included both of the end dates, then 113 days). 1875 is probably second, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 20 and the last one was September 10. That is 112 days (or 114 counting both end dates). That latter (Sept 10) is not an extreme earliest date for termination of the 80 or + season, 1902 (Sept 2), 1876 (Sept 4) and 1871 (Sept 6) finished earlier, but 1871 had a much earlier onset with 85F on April 8 and therefore longer seasons. The extreme for latest onset appears to be June 7 (1924) followed by May 31 (1882); also later than 1875 was May 25 (in 1873) but that season terminated on Sep 29 (lasting 15 days longer than 1882), also 1898 started its season on May 20 but went into early October to reach 137 days. 1988 began its season May 23, 1904 began its season on May 24, 1916 and 1946 on May 25, 1920 and 1999 on May 28. In 1869 with some missing data but likely much cooler than 80F from maps available, the first 80 deg day is also May 13 and the first to exceed 80 was May 26. 1883 joins the group for the >80F short duration because the season ended in late August but after some very cool weather for most of the autumn an outlier 80F occurred on Oct 14 so this year did not make the first table, as I show in the following tables (80 or higher seasons shorter than 135 days in table 1, >80 seasons shorter than 125 days in table 2): (I have used the same convention for counting dates between the first and last 80 or + and (>80) as shown in other tables above, which I worked out to be the number of days between the start and end date, not counting either of them. The actual duration of the season adds two days (the end points) to my values and those in the other tables above.) Table 1: SHORTEST DURATIONS OF (80 or +)F MAX at NYC 1882 ________ 80 May 31 ___ 84 Sep 20 __________ 111d (152-262) 1875 ________ 80 May 20 ___ 80 Sep 10 ___________112d (141-252) 1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ____________ 118 d (132-249) 1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 80 Sep 4 ____________119d (129-247)* 1924 ________80 June 7 ____ 81 Oct 6 ____________ 120d (160-279) 1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 ___________ 123d (136-258) 1904 ________ 86 May 24 ___ 80 Sep 25 __________ 123d (146-268)* 1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 ___________ 124d (145-268)* 1873 ________ 80 May 25 ___ 80 Sep 29 __________ 126d (146-271) 1966 ________ 83 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 11 ___________ 127d (127-253) 1971 ________ 84 May 11 ____ 86 Sep 16 __________ 127d (132-258) (78 on Oct 29) 1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 80 Sep 28 __________ 127d (145-271)* 1899 ________ 84 May 1 ____ 82 Sep 8 ____________ 129d (122-250) (79 on Oct 18) 1911 _________ 83 May 18 ___ 86 Sep 25 __________ 129d (139-267) 1932 ________ 83 May 16 ___ 86 Sep 23 __________ 129d (138-266)* 2020 ________ 80 May 3 ___ 82 Sep 10 ___________ 129d (125-253)* 1869 ________ 80 May 12 ___ 86 Sep 20 __________ 130d (133-262) 1893 ________ 80 May 11 ___ 82 Sep 19 ___________ 130d (132-261) 1902 ________ 84 Apr 22 ___ 82 Sep 2 ____________ 132d (113-244) 1906 ________ 84 May 13 ___ 80 Sep 23 __________ 132d (134-265) 1907 ________ 85 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 24 __________ 132d (134-265) 1889 ________ 81 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259) 1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 80 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259) 1890 ________ 80 May 1 ____ 83 Sep 13 ___________ 134d (122-255) 1933 ________ 80 May 15 ___90 Sep 27 ___________ 134d (136-269) 1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 80 Sep 12 ___________ 135d (121-255)* * leap year, date count one higher for calendar dates Table 2: SHORTEST DURATIONS OF >80F MAX at NYC __ duration (dates between end points) 1873 ________ 87 May 28 ___ 87 Sep 5 ___________ 99d (149-247) 1882 ________ 83 June 7 ___ 84 Sep 20 _________ 104d (159-262) 1883 ________ 81 May 8 ____ 88 Aug 23 _________ 106d (129-234) 1999 ________ 81 May 28 ___ 81 Sep 12 _________ 106d (149-254) 1875 ________ 86 May 21 ___ 84 Sep 9 __________ 110d (142-251) 1924 _______ 81 June 15 ___ 81 Oct 6 ___________ 112d (168-279) 1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 87 Sep 1 ___________ 116d (129-244)* 1869 ________ 86 May 26 ___ 86 Sep 20 ________ 116d (147-262) 2020 ________84 May 15 ___ 82 Sep 10 _________ 117d (137-253)* 1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ___________118d (132-249) 1893 ________ 85 May 21 ___ 82 Sep 19 _________120d (142-261) 1900 ________ 84 May 14 ___ 86 Sep 12 ________ 120d (135-254) 1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 81 Sep 4 __________ 120d (127-246) 1890 ________ 81 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 13 _________ 121d (135-255) 1908 ________ 81 May 12 ___ 81 Sep 11 __________ 121d (134-254)* 1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 83 Aug 30 _________ 122d (121-242)* 1901 ________ 85 May 24 ___ 81 Sep 24 _________ 122d (145-266) 1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 82 Sep 23 _________122d (145-266)* 1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 __________123d (136-258) 1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 _________ 124d (145-268)* * leap year, date count is one higher than other years for same calendar dates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Earliest and Latest 80 deg max in graphical format (advance of the extremes) _________ 1871 Apr 8 ________ 1879 Oct 16 _______ 1892 Apr 4 __________1897 Oct 16 _____ 1917 Apr 1** __________ 1908 Oct 16 _____ ** 1910 Mar 30 (78) close __1921 Mar 21 ___________________ 1919 Oct 28 _ 1945 Mar 20 ___________________ 1946 Oct 31** ___ **1938 Nov 7 (78) close _ (1990 Mar 13) ___________________1950 Nov 2 (1974 Nov 1) _ 1990 Mar 13 ______________________ 1993 Nov 15 close out of season attempts to stretch the limits ... _ 79 Mar 10, 2016 ___________________ 77 Nov 20, 1985 _ 78 Feb 21, 2018 ____________________ 75 Dec 7, 1998 ============================================== List of the longest seasons for 80 or higher, in successive increases over past seasons 166d _ 1881 _ Apr 24 to Oct 8 168d _ 1891 _ Apr 19 to Oct 5 173d _ 1892 _ Apr 4 to Sep 25 174d _ 1914 _ Apr 19 to Oct 11 176d _ 1919 _ May 4 to Oct 28 192d _ 1921 _ Mar 21 to Sep 30 195d _ 1928 _ Apr 5 to Oct 18 212d _ 1945 _ Mar 20 to Oct 19 (207d)_1963 _ Apr 2 to Oct 27 214d _ 1990 _ Mar 13 to Oct 14 ________________________________________ Other seasons 180d or longer: 1985 (199); 1993 (197); 1961 (187); 1968, 1974 (186); 1967 (185); 1938, 1942 (184); 1955, 1959, 1998, 2016 (183); 1960 (182); 1979, 2011, 2017 (181); 1922 (180) To tie the record set in 1990, 2021 will need to record 80 F or higher on October 27 (first reading was 82F Mar 26). To match fourth place 1985, 2021 will need to record 80F or higher on October 12. _________________________________________ Most of the short seasons were before 1905, but a few have happened in more recent years. Oddly, some rather hot summers join this list (1901, 1966 and 1988 can all be found). Hoping this graph will copy from my excel file where I did this analysis. 1869 - 2020 Duration (days) of 80 deg seasons (blue is 80 or +, orange is >80) ... Many years have the same durations for these (if end points are >80)