Roger Smith

Anyone able to update us on the Korean model that had the super-bomb yesterday? My approach if I had to make a forecast now would be to take a weighted average of GFS, Euro and GEM, ignore the rest. The weight should be something like 40-30-20 in that order. On that basis you come up with a very nice solution, not quite as tucked or intense as Euro, at times a bit south of GEM, closer to land than GFS and 5 mb deeper too. Let's say a 978 mb low near the benchmark from an origin near ACY. It would perhaps cut back a bit on Euro QPF but would spread 15-25 inch snowfalls over most of the region. I wouldn't call that "my" forecast because it's just a paradigm approach, if the models diverge, then split the difference, they can't all be right but sometimes none of them is exactly right compared to the others. GEM at the moment is intermediate in nature to GFS/Euro so a second approach might be, go with the intermediate of the three but skew that slightly towards the one of the other two you trust more. Frankly I trust the GFS more than the Euro but I hope for the best for your sake. I don't want to be the only poster here to reach 50" on my season (it is child's play here).

3-5 take a break then 30-50. This is becoming like a fat man at an all you can eat buffet.

A good analogue may be March 3-4, 1960. Check out this map and the outcomes were high on the NESIS scale. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1960&maand=03&dag=04&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

The forecast was toast.

Once again, GFS-GEM-Euro equally weighted blend looks better than any of them individually. An intense version of that would be quite productive. Think the blended track would be ideal for most. I suppose it's usually the case that one model wins out over the others, but maybe in this case they would all move to a compromise solution with track across the benchmark and into western Gulf of Maine. Let it loop or stall there.

1717 ... 1888 ... 2059 ... you'll just be 78 which will be like 55 today.

Here's a list to aim for a top finish ... 3.3" gets to 60%, 4.4" to 66.7%, 5.1" to 70% and 6.8" secures second place at 75.6%. To pass 1997-98 will require 22.1" (the blizzard of 1888 or equivalent) ... Most in this list accumulated most of Mar-Apr in March but a few were mostly April (1981-82, 1937-38, 1914-15 and 1923-24 in particular). 1966-67 was about 34% and below the thresh-hold value of 35% to make this list (I set it at 35% expecting to get a top twenty so bonus ranks below that). This shows the strong March snowfall climatology especially for poor producers some of which made the list, others like 1931-32 did not (0.6" of 5.3" was only 11.3%). 1972-73 was almost done before March (a very mild one) began (0.2" of 2.8" was 7.1%). 2011-12 had zero snow to add to its meagre total of 7.4" and set a record for Oct percentage for sure (39%), second best there was 1952-53 at 3.3% and 1925-26 was 2.7%. The only other winter that had a percentage was 1876-77 at 2% (unless one counted Oct traces as 0.05" then a few others would have some outcome and one could say that 1972 had 2.2%. TOP THIRTY-SIX NYC WINTERS for % TOTAL SNOWFALL in MARCH-APRIL Winter _____ Total snow __ MAR-APR __ % Mar-Apr 1997-98 ________ 5.5 _________ 5.0 ______ 88.9 1955-56 _______ 33.5 ________ 25.2 _____ 75.2 1991-92 _______ 12.6 _________ 9.2 ______ 73.0 1895-96 _______ 46.0 ________ 33.5 _____ 72.7 1889-90 _______ 24.4 ________ 17.4 ______ 71.3 1918-19 _________ 3.8 _________ 2.7 ______ 71.1 1914-15 ________ 28.8 ________ 17.9 ______ 62.2 1905-06 _______ 20.0 ________ 11.5 ______ 57.5 1915-16 ________ 50.7 ________ 28.8 _____ 56.8 1958-59 _______ 13.0 _________ 7.3 ______ 56.2 1913-14 ________40.5 ________ 21.5 ______ 53.1 1891-92 _______ 25.3 ________ 13.0 ______ 51.4 2018-19 _______ 20.5 ________ 10.4 ______ 50.9 1940-41 _______ 39.0 ________ 19.2 ______ 49.2 1887-88 _______ 45.5 ________ 22.2 ______48.8 1992-93 _______24.5 _________11.9 ______ 48.6 1874-75 _______ 56.4 ________ 27.3 ______ 48.4 2006-07 _______ 12.4 _________ 6.0 ______ 48.4 1943-44 _______ 23.8 ________ 11.3 ______ 47.5 1983-84 _______ 25.4 ________ 11.9 ______ 46.9 1959-60 _______ 39.2 _______ 18.5 ______ 47.2 1937-38 _______ 15.1 _________ 7.1 _______ 47.0 1980-81 _______ 19.4 _________8.6 _______ 45.3 1899-1900 ____ 13.6 _________ 5.9 _______43.4 1869-70 _______ 27.8 ________ 12.1 _______43.2 1923-24 _______ 27.5 ________ 11.6 ______ 42.2 1981-82 _______ 24.6 ________ 10.3 ______ 41.7 1927-28 _______ 14.5 __________5.7 ______ 39.3 1951-52 _______ 19.7 __________7.4 ______ 37.6 2014-15 _______ 50.3 ________ 18.6 ______ 37.0 1957-58 _______ 44.7 ________ 16.1 ______ 36..2 1879-80 _______ 22.7 _________ 8.3 ______ 36.1 1906-07 _______ 53.2 ________ 19.1 ______ 36.0 1916-17 ________ 50.7 ________ 18.2 ______35.9 1979-80 _______ 12.8 __________4.6 ______ 35.9 1998-99 _______ 12.7 _________ 4.5 ______ 35.4

Made the point in the other storm thread that currently a blend of GFS, Euro and GEM looks better than any of them alone, has a good track for 13th-14th. Maybe they will converge on that, a track something like HAT to Benchmark to western Gulf of Maine. I think there's still a bit of hope for Saturday (or Friday night) but only looks like a 2 to 5 inch sort of potential. The second storm has considerable potential. Blend of models for the win on that (or Korean which I read about but haven't seen).

06z GFS taking baby steps towards a good solution for (Monday 13th into) Tuesday 14th. No blockbuster low but a fairly good track from TN to e of VA to about 38N 68W. Drops to 990 mb. Has the look of a 3-6 inch event for large sections of NE. You can build from this towards a stronger storm. An equally weighted blend of Euro, GEM and GFS actually has a better storm than any of the three, would be something like 988 mb at the benchmark by 03-06z 14th. Go model blend! Future track of that would also be better, slowly moving north into Gulf of Maine.

The files in the thread have been updated to show Jan-Feb 2023 and winter 2022-23 values where needed. It was a very mild winter at NYC with only 2.2" snow to date; Toronto has had its sixth mildest winter but snowfall picked up at times and the totals are closer to long term averages. The excel files have also been updated. Due to size limits, I cannot post those here, but they are on the parallel Net-weather thread. To navigate to the excel files, follow this link: http://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/4/

Hey great now the GFS crushes on Thursday 16th !!! in Newfoundland. ax to head emoji

Feb 2023 has replaced eight record high daily means (for weeks ending 13th-20th) and the mean max was a new record for six (weeks ending 15th-20th) while the mean min was a new record for just four (13th-16th) ... 1984 held on to three ending 17th-19th and 1981 held on to week of 14th-20th. At either end of this streak there were a few second or third place finishes too. Details are in the thread (scroll back to page one, Feb records). This adds to the five new weekly record high daily means ending Jan 2 to 6 to give 2023 a total of 13 (out of 66 it could hold). At random it should have 0.3 !

The Euro storm is a monster, it just fills slowly almost in place, if you could get it to follow a track 50 miles more out to sea ... wow. But I realize it's very hypothetical. The thing about the GFS is, forecast error at 96h is a lot smaller than at 192h. I notice in my routine forecasting in Europe that the GFS is taking a different approach from the other models too, tracking a low further north within 48h across Ireland and the UK. Makes a big difference to snow potential there. I'll report which model(s) got this right some time within next two days, if this model disparity doesn't disappear.

So do you want the weekend GFS, the midweek Euro, or ... ... both (heh heh) ??

Just saw the 192h Euro, it keeps going with the 12z evolution and parks a 982 mb low over Salem MA. 850s look good, warm seclusion look. 20-30 incher without seeing the snowfall maps.

Weatherfella, and anyone interested in 1956 storm, as your recollection is from n NJ these are the NYC daily data from 16th to 19th March 1956 ... date ____ MAX __ MIN __ PREC __ SNOW 16th ____ 33 ____ 22 ____ 0.90 ____ 6.2 17th ____ 33 ____ 20 ____ 0.05 ____ 0.5 18th ____ 30 ____ 21 ____ 0.38 ____ 3.8 19th ____ 26 ____ 23 ____ 0.78 ____ 7.8 ======== It was a great run of cold and snowy months of March, other than 1957 which even so managed 2.5" snowfalls on 1st and again Apr 4th, then 1958 had 4.1" 14th and 11.8" 20th-21st, 1959 had 5.5" 12th, and 1960 had 14.5" 3rd-4th. Some of these storms may have been heavier in New England too.

Just wondering if weatherfella could confirm this, from the maps, in 1956 storm 1 developed off the coast around Friday March 16th and dropped snow Friday night into Saturday morning, storm 2 developed on night of Sunday 18th- Monday 19th, The gap between peak of storms was 48 to 54 hours. Does that match what you recall? Map for Monday 19th below, you can navigate back through the sequence. Both coastal lows were transfers from inland lows and did not develop over the southeastern U.S. ... the first one actually looks stronger on the maps but I'm not sure where exactly weatherfella was in 1956, think I know where he lives now (se MA?). http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1956&maand=03&dag=19&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

The King gave the word ... great were the multitude of the preachers.

This could be the most important 00z model run of the lifetimes of anyone born since 11 p.m. Friday.

Most of the significant historic March storms were coastal lows from the southeastern US, not coastal redevelopers. That includes 1888, 1914, 1956, 1958, 1960, also Apr 2-3 1915. I found one that was more similar to what's being suggested for next weekend, and that was March 22-23 1967. Coastal redevelopment was working with an antecedent record cold high in that case. Similar comment for Apr 5-7 1982.

Since it was discussed earlier, 1888 maps exist and could be considered broadly reliable given the grid of weather obs then available across North America and probably numerous ship reports in the Atlantic. Here's a link to Mar 4, 1888. From this you can navigate day by day to the time of the blizzard 11th-13th. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1888&maand=3&dag=4&uur=1800&nmaps=24&h=1 This is a brief summary of events: MAR 4 a strong arctic high is located near Ontario-Manitoba border. New England in a northerly flow behind departing low pressure near Newfoundland. Most of northern US covered by east to northeast flow from the 1045 mb high. MAR 5 Not much change, a weak low appears over Georgia. West coast appears to be in a moderately deep trough with low pressure q.s. near nw WA. MAR 6 All features slightly weaker again, but flow essentially unchanged. The weak GA low is suppressed to a position near northern Bahamas. MAR 7 As the low over western Atlantic continues to drift east, the northerly flow over New England develops a trough and the mid-continent ridge continues a slightly retrograde motion. Low pressure forming over Nevada as the Pacific milder air masses continue to be prevented from entering Pac NW or BC by easterly outflow from the SK-ND ridge (center of high has retreated to arctic source central n Canada to n Greenland). MAR 8 The mid-continent ridge splits to form a discrete 1035 mb high near Wisconsin. The trough in New England begins to fill slowly. Western low pressure around 995 mb near central-southern CO. Cool east-northeast flow into GOM. MAR 9 The arctic high now close to BUF, western low moving slowly east with an inverted trof to southern Manitoba. Has the look of a 1-3" snow event for western Lake Superior and Wisconsin regions. Any nucleus of eventual blizzard is probably east of BRO as 1005 mb wave at most. MAR 10 Arctic high crests over New England at about 1035 mb. Low moves to near Chicago at about 1008 mb. Still not much development in GOM or east of FL. MAR 11 Rapid development as GL low deepens to near 1000 mb east of Lake Huron (18z) and GA-SC low starts to form. By 06z 12th, GL low has moved to eastern shore Hudson Bay and the southeastern US low has moved to east of Cape Hatteras at about 1000 mb. MAR 12 Coastal low undergoes rapid intensification east of Delmarva to south of Long Island, likely around 970 to 975 mb by about 18z and 970 mb by 00z 13th, south of Nantucket. 1035 mb high near northern Lake Huron. MAR 13 Slowly filling low plods northeast past Cape Cod then east to east-southeast into 14th. (the outcome is well known of course, note that both NYC and Toronto had record low temperatures after the storm moved away, so this was pretty much the perfect evolution of bombing coastal low interacting with severe cold highs both ahead and following)

Just to maintain the record of guidance tracking, 18z GFS depicts a rather weak event in the same area, then a second coastal forms two days later and is somewhat more productive. I would estimate 1-2" from first event for NYC area and 2-4" from second one. Both have some potential to taint. (verbatim, I'm not saying any of that will be the actual outcome). Both of those events would combine to keep 1972-73 on the seasonal snowfall futility throne, and I suspect it might bring 2022-23 down to second in the DonS futility index (maybe to 1918-19 or 1997-98, or maybe third to both of them?) But if those snowfalls only added up to 2-3" it could keep 2022-23 in first place there (last place I suppose). I don't have a strong hunch about how this plays out. I suspect what you need is for the Pacific coastal trough to relax enough to allow the right upstream look, but not to such an extent that it floods too much Pacific warmth into the plains states. By the way, locally we have our maximum winter snow pack now, around 22-24" and I think we have finally creaked our way to a near normal outcome for this ski resort location, unlike further south it has not been overly snowy here, but the winter started early (late October) and has seemed to drag on forever.

Snowfall contest updates This table will be updated whenever snow falls in March. Bold entries are maximum forecasts for location, and underlined are minimum forecasts. Total and departure show your total for nine predictions, your current departure from actual (most of which are below forecasts) and in brackets, the portion of this departure which cannot be reduced (by current under-forecasts at BUF for most, and at SEA for some). If you are only behind BUF, your total departure is your total minus actual total, plus twice your BUF error. Apply the same principle if you are also passed by actual anywhere else now (SEA) or later (DEN may come into play soon). Rank is current for departure, and subject to future changes. The contest has been placed in rank order now. Rank _FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total and departure _01 _ Scotty Lightning*___________16.0 _23.0 _ 33.0 __ 44.1 _37.5 _ 81.9 ___ 65.9__5.9 _ 84.0 ____ 391.3 __ 166.1 (53.9) _02 _ hudsonvalley21 ____________13.2 _ 29.3 _ 46.2 __ 42.8 _44.0 _ 90.0 __ 48.7 _ 8.2 _96.3 ____ 418.7 __ 172.9 (43.6) _03 _ so_whats_happening ______ 18.0 _38.0 _ 64.0 __ 45.0 _380_ 110.0 __ 42.0 _11.0 _ 84.0 ____ 450.0 __ 173.6 (28.3) _04 _ RodneyS ___________________ 7.4 _ 33.0 _ 50.0 __ 44.0 _48.0 _ 93.0 __ 46.0 _ 7.0 _ 98.0 ____ 426.4 __ 178.2 (42.4) (05) ____ Consensus _____________16.0 _40.0 _ 55.5 __ 44.1 _ 49.9 _ 93.7 __ 50.0 _ 8.2 _ 90.0 ____ 447.4 __ 194.2 (39.9) _05 _ DonSutherland1 ____________10.0 _36.0 _ 55.0 __ 45.8 _52.5 _ 95.0 __ 44.0 _ 7.0_ 100.0 ____ 445.3 __ 197.1 (42.4) _06 _ Roger Smith _______________22.2 _44.4 _ 55.5 __ 55.5 _66.6_ 133.0 __ 52.0 _15.9 _ 88.8 ____ 533.9 __ 202.1 (0.6) _07 _ RJay _______________________20.0 _50.0 _ 65.0 __ 31.0 _27.0 _ 86.0 ___ 50.0 _15.0 _ 80.0 ____ 424.0 __ 206.2 (57.6) _08 _ wxdude64 _________________19.5 _40.0 _ 58.5 __ 42.8 _50.5 _101.0 ___ 41.6 _ 8.7 _ 104.0 ____466.6 __ 209.0 (37.7) _09 _ Tom _______________________ 14.2 _ 41.1 _ 49.6 __ 53.9 _ 49.9 _ 93.7 __ 79.2 _ 6.7 _ 81.2 ____ 469.5 __ 219.1 (41.3) _10 _ BKViking ___________________ 25.0 _52.0 _ 60.0 __ 38.0 _50.0 _90.0 __ 60.0 _18.0_ 90.0 ____ 483.0 __ 237.2 (43.6) _11 _ George001 _________________ 12.0 _62.0_105.0__ 65.0 _70.0_140.0__ 60.0 _ 8.0_ 130.0____ 652.0 __ 319.0 actual snowfall to Apr 4, 2023 __0.4 __ 2.3 __12.4 __ 19.7 __37.0 __133.6 ___46.7 _ 8.1 _ 72.8 ____ 333.0 total Current best forecast ____________(04) __(01) __(01) ___(07) __(01) __ (06) ___(04)_(02,11)_ (07) (01 Scotty Lightning has three, (04) RodneyS has two, (07) RJay has two, (06) Roger Smith has one, and hudsonvalley21, George001 are tied for one (SEA). Lowest forecasts are best at all but DTW, BUF and SEA. ====================================== (Mar 4) _ All forecasts are still above actual values for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD and DTW as well as BTV. One forecast is now equal to current total at DEN, otherwise the rest are still above the current value. BUF has passed all but two forecasts (Roger Smith 133.0, George001 has 140.0). SEA has a bit more than half the forecasts, and is between George001 (8.0") and hudsonvalley21 (8.2") with other higher forecasts. The table now contains the total error value which in most cases is subject to later decreases, but for those already passed by BUF or SEA, new snowfall will increase these values. NOTE: BUF now has no contest implications, further snow will not change differentials, except for myself and George001. I can gain 16.4" (twice my reserve of 8.2") but that would only move my rank (8th) closer to 7th. George001 is too far back to benefit much from further snow at BUF. Probably DEN is the most volatile location for changing ranks. The more reserve you have for DEN, the higher your potential to move ahead -- but that snow has to happen. Seems unlikely that the four northeast locations or Chicago will pass any forecasts, but DTW could still be a factor. Looks as though Scotty Lightning has the edge, he needs less than 1.0" more at DEN to pass so_whats_happening and then would have a bigger reserve than any chasers, except Tom, and his margin over Tom at DEN would not reverse the outcome. Unless there are very heavy snowfalls later in March at other locations, I think DEN will determine the outcome. (Mar 11) _ DTW has now passed RJay and is gradually approaching our cluster near consensus. As a result RJay fell from 5th to 7th. No change at the top because DEN has seen no new snow since last report. (Mar 16) _ BUF has now reached the second highest forecast (Roger Smith) so I cannot gain any further ground, a combination of that plus more snow at DTW moved me into 7th and RJay into 8th, otherwise no changes in the scoring order. Scotty awaits any further snow at DEN to move ahead of so_whats_happening who also has 0.5" more to use up as both of our leaders find DTW about to pass them. The net result would be that if DTW does pass both, Scotty will need about 1.8" more at DEN to pass swh. If nothing else changed by then, Scotty has the same forecast for BTV and appears in good shape otherwise. (Mar 20) _ DEN added 1.5" snow which moved Scotty Lightning into the lead. If DTW adds a small amount then so_whats_happening could retake the lead unless DEN adds similar amounts. BUF has moved past all but George001 now, but the margin for further gain is only 6.7"x2 or 13.4" which is not enough to change any contest ranks. (Mar 28) _ DEN added a further 3.6" and BTV 0.3" in the past week. This has led to a few changes in the contest ranks. Meanwhile, the table is now ordered by contest ranks instead of following the forecast table. The contest is not settled yet. Further snowfall at DTW could move hudsonvalley21 into the lead. However, Scotty Lightning retains more DEN snowfall to use up if the total exceeds 48.7" (hudsonvalley21's prediction). RodneyS also has some potential for gain at DTW, but he cannot pass hudsonvalley21 unless about 9" more falls there. Large late season falls at BTV could also help hudsonvalley21 and RodneyS, as SL and s_w_h have equal forecasts of 84.0", albeit 12" above the current total there, so that advantage would only begin to materialize after 12" more might occur (not too likely from climatology or current model runs). Also RodneyS and hudsonvalley21 have to avoid larger snowfalls at DEN in April or May, as SL has a margin of over 15" and they have recently, or will soon run out of margin there. Meanwhile so_whats_happening has one faint hope left, which would be April snow at SEA combined with no further snow anywhere else in play (BUF would not matter). I don't see any route to a contest win for those below fourth place although there are mathematical possibilities (that likely will not verify) mostly involving very heavy April snowfalls in the midwest. (Apr 4) _ Small additions at BUF and BTV, DEN may add today and tomorrow but not yet changed in table.

Waited a couple of days for late entries but two or three AWOL this month, anyway here's what we do have ... welcome Rhino16 I have rounded your predictions to the nearest tenth. Table of Forecasts March 2023 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____0.0 _ +1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ 0.0 wxdude64 _________________ +0.6 _ -0.4 _ -1.9 ___ -1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 ___ -1.5 _ +0.4 _-1.8 ___ ___ Normal ___ ___ _______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 DonSutherland1 ____________-0.4 _ -1.8 _ -1.7 ___ -0.3 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 ___ -1.2 _ -2.6 _ -3.6 wxallannj ___________________-0.5 _ -0.9 _ -1.2 ___ -1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ -1.0 _ -0.6 _ -2.0 Rhino16 ____________________ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 ___ -1.8 _ +0.5 _ -0.4 ___ -1.3 _ +0.3 _ -1.8 ___ Consensus ______________-0.9 _ -1.4 _ -1.3 ___ -1.3 _ +0.8 _ +1.2 ___ -1.2 _ -1.0 _ -1.9 hudsonvalley21 __ (-1%) ___ -1.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.4 ___ -0.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.3 ___ -0.6 _ -1.4 _ -2.3 RodneyS ___________________ -1.2 _ -1.4 _ -1.3 ___ -2.5 _ -0.6 _ +1.3 ___ -3.5 _ -1.8 _ -2.4 RJay ________________________-1.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ___ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ +2.0 ___ -3.0 _ -1.5 _ -2.5 BKViking ____________________-1.8 _ -1.4 _ -1.2 ___ -1.8 _ +0.5 _ +1.5 ___ -1.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 Roger Smith ________________ -2.0 _ -2.2 _ -1.8 __ -2.4 _ -2.4 _ -1.8 ____ -1.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.3 - - - - - __ Persistence (Feb 2023) _ +6.8 _ +5.2 _ +3.1 ___ +5.1 _ +8.6 _+2.8 __-1.6 _ -2.8 _ -3.3 __________________ Forecasts are color coded for warmest and coldest. Normal is tied for warmest at ORD. In a few days I will bring over the latest snowfall totals and compare them to contest entries.

Are the scores based on D-J-F or the extended winter season? In other words, can 2022-23 move up if there's any significant snow to come?