Roger Smith

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development. Expect meso discussion to be issued.

Records 92 in 1907 at DCA and 90 in 1945 BWI.

Where 2025 stands against the heavy hitters ... all years currently ahead of 2025 for one or both 70+ and 80+ (NYC) as max so far is only 66F. Counting maxima of 67 to 69 as being ahead also, 2025 is right now tied with five other years for 90th place out of 157. Ranked by frequency of 80+, and to break ties, frequency of 70+ (1998 oddly had only 80+ and no 70-79 max) Ties within 70+ are broken by max and if that doesn't break tie, listed in earliest to latest chronological order. The frequency of 70+ includes 80+ (so for example 1945 had 4 in 70s and 3 in 80s) ... (edit Apr 2 ... now lists 2025 in final position, comments above before any 70+ days ... original rankings remain) Rank _MARCH of YEAR ______ 70+ ___ 80+ ___ max ____ rank if 70+ determines _01 __ 1998 ____________________5 _____ 5 _____ 86 ______4 _02 __ 1945 ____________________7 _____ 3 _____ 86 ______2 _03 __ 1990 ___________________ 4 _____ 2 _____ 85 ______7 _04 __ 1921 ____________________4 _____ 2 _____ 84 _____ 8 _05 __ 1989 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 9 _06 __ 1985 ____________________3 _____ 1 _____ 82 ______12 _07 __ 2021 ____________________2 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 23 _08 __ 1977 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 81 ______ 10 (09) _ 2025 ___________________ 2 _____ 1 _____ 81 ______ (24) _09 __ 2012 ____________________8 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 1 _10 __ 1946 ____________________ 6 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 3 _11 ___2016 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 5 _12 __ 1986 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 6 _13 __ 1987 ____________________ 4 _____ 0 _____ 76 ______ 11 _14 __ 1962 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 13 _15 ___1910 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 14 t16 __ 1913,38,2020 ___________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 77 ______t15 _19 __ 1979 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 76 _____ 18 _20 ___1949 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 75 _____ 19 t21 __ 1948, 2022 _____________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 74 _____ t20 _23 __ 1905 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 73 _____ 22 _24 __ 1963 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 79 _____ all same rank from this point down _25 __ 2007 ___________________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 78 t26 __ 1929,81,91 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 77 t29 __ 1922,88 _________________2 _____ 0 _____ 76 t31 __ 1964, 2019 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 75 t33 __ 1907,99, 2006,10,24 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 74 t38 __ 1939,61,72 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 73 t41 __ 1976,95 __________________2 _____ 0 _____ 72 _43 ___1920 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 71 t44 ___1935, 2011 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 77 t46 __ 1918,23,68 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 76 _49 __ 1914 _____________________1 _____ 0 _____ 73 t50 __ 1880, 1908,43,67, 2002 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 72 t55 __ 1890, 1925,34,55,59,94,2000 _1 _____ 0 _____ 71 t62 __ 1903,36,60,69,74,2004,09,17 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 70 t70 __ 1878,79,97, 1919,27,28 _______1942,57,71, 2003 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 69 t80 __ 1912,54,83,93,97 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 68 t85 __ 1894, 1902,26,50,53,66 __ 0 _____ 0 _____ 67 t90 __ 1876,1924,26,73,2014,25 _ 0 _____ 0 _____ 66 note 2025 later went to 2 ___ 1 ___ 81 and to rank 9 in list

Above (meaning previously on page two) see scoring for March 2025 and eventually annual scoring update. Further back in Feb portion of thread, snowfall contest details have been updated to March 31st. Below, post your April forecasts ... anyone new thinking of entering, see original post for details (Jan contest).

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxallannj _________________197 _204 _218 __ 619 __ 238 _198 _192 __ 628 _ 1247 __162 _148 _179 __ 489 ___ 1736 ___ Consensus _________201 _210 _202 __613 __204 _254 _192__650 _ 1263 _ 123 _150 _186 __ 459 ___1722 BKViking _________________ 167 _194 _182 __ 543 __ 224 _268 _187 __ 679 _ 1222 __163 _126 _180 __ 469 ___1691 so_whats_happening ____ 215 _216 _164 __ 595 __176 _ 266 _197 __ 639 _ 1234 __ 114 _094 _208__ 416 ___1650 hudsonvalley21 __________ 169 _190 _214 __ 573 __ 144 _ 244 _195 __583 __1156 __150 _130 _184 __ 464 ___1620 Tom ______________________ 189 _186 _194 __ 569 __ 196 _190 _ 212 __ 598 _ 1167 __ 178 _140 _120 __ 438 ___1605 RJay ______________________199 _252 _240 __691 __208 _248 _161 __ 617 _ 1308 __ 069 _074 _128 __271 ___ 1579 wxdude64 ________________180 _194 _188 __ 562 __ 160_ 204 _164 __ 528 _ 1090 __ 135 _ 154 _168 __457___ 1547 RodneyS __________________188 _166 _180 __ 534 __ 142 _162 _ 162 __ 466 _ 1000 __105 _ 188 _238 __531___ 1531 DonSutherland1 __________ 145 _170 _174 __ 489 ___170 _218 _162 __ 550 _ 1039 __ 133 _138 _204 __475 ___1514 Scotty Lightning __________ 204 _182 _140 __ 526 __125 _154 _ 180 __ 459 __ 985 __ 91 _ 178 _176 __ 445 ___1430 Roger Smith _______________180 _190 _186 __ 556 __ 180 _184 _152 __ 516 __ 1072 __ 60 _094 _187 __341 ____1413 StormchaserChuck _______177 _160 _148 __ 485 __ 92 _ 230 _143 __465 __ 950 __ 137 _134 _127 __ 398 ___ 1348 ___ Normal _________________114 _ 152 _176 __ 442 __ 116 _ 64 _ 75 ___255 __697 __ 124 _170 _186__ 480 ___ 1177 maxim (2/3) _______________180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 __ 96_ 120 _ 82 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _135 __ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 1667 Persistence _______________ 54 _136 _186 __ 376 ___ 98 _ 90 _ 56 __ 244 _ 620 __ 12 _ 08 _126 __ 146 ____ 766 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____0 Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning _________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 1 * __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Feb StormchaserChuck _____ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 15 of 27 ... 7 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.5 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 ___ 0-1 ____0.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 0-0 =========================================================

__ Final scoring for March 2025 __ scores are based on posted end of March anomalies (previous post) FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL Tom _________________________ 39 _ 72 _ 82 __ 193 _ 92 _ 86 _ 96 __ 274 _ 467 _ 78 _ 96 _ 62 __ 236 ____ 703 StormchaserChuck1 _________ 77 _ 92 _ 84 __ 253 _ 68 _ 82 _ 84 __234 _487 _ 80 _ 82 _ 46 __208 ____ 695 Maxim _______________________ 96 _ 72 _ 66 __ 234 _ 48 _ 62 _ 82 __ 192 _ 426 _ 82 _ 84 _ 80 __246 ____ 672 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 29 _ 60 _ 86 __ 175 _ 50 _100 _ 78 __ 228 _403 _ 52 _ 64 _ 88 __ 204 ____607 so_whats_happening ________ 73 _ 96 _ 64 __ 233 _ 88 _ 88 _ 90 __ 266 _ 499 _06 _ 14 _ 68 __ 088 ____587 DonSutherland1 ______________23 _ 46 _ 48 __ 117 _ 64 _ 68 _ 72 __ 204 _ 321 _ 64 _ 90 _ 94 __ 248 ____ 569 wxallannj _____________________ 43 _ 68 _ 60 __ 171 _ 72 _ 78 _ 58 __ 208 _ 379 _ 36 _ 56 _ 80 __ 172 ____ 551 ___ Consensus _____________ 29 _ 60 _ 66 __ 155 _ 50 _ 86 _ 68 __204 _ 359 _ 36 _ 74 _ 80 __190 ____549 BKViking ______________________23 _ 60 _ 66 __ 149 _ 42 _ 92 _ 68 __ 202 _ 351 _ 40 _ 74 _ 80 __ 194 ____ 545 RJay __________________________ 43 _ 78 _ 80 __ 201 _ 42 _ 88 _ 68 __ 198 _ 399 _ 00 _ 50 _ 40__ 090 ____ 489 Scotty Lightning ______________ 10 _ 38 _ 30 __ 078 _ 05 _ 58 _ 48 __ 111 _ 189 _ 26 _100_ 100__ 226 ____ 415 wxdude64 ____________________ 06 _ 26 _ 16 __ 048 _ 08 _ 66 _ 52 __ 126 _ 174 _ 32 _ 88 _ 86 __ 206 ____ 380 RodneyS ______________________ 04 _ 32 _ 32 __ 068 _ 14 _ 20 _ 50 __ 084 _ 152 _ 26 _ 64 _ 96 __ 186 ____338 Roger Smith ___________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 _ 00 _ 48 _ 58 __ 106 _ 122 __ 00 _ 50 _ 94 __ 144 ____266 ___ Normal _____________________ 00 _ 18 _ 20 __ 038 _ 00 _ 28 _ 08 __ 036 _ 074 _ 16 _ 70 _ 100__ 186 ____ 260 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _ 10 _ 02 _ 00 __ 012 _ 00 _ 90 _ 56 __ 146 _ 158 __ 00 _ 08 _ 28 __ 036 ____194 ================= [] =================== Extreme Forecast Report DCA and DEN _ Warmest forecast (Maxim) wins. IAH _ Tom wins with closest forecast (2nd warmest forecast), Maxim takes a loss. PHX _ Scotty Lightning wins with closest forecast (2nd warmest), Stormchaser Chuck takes a loss. SEA _ Scotty Lightning wins with closest forecast (also Normal), Roger Smith takes a loss. rest of locations did not qualify.

Anmalies and projections: _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (final anomaly) ____ +6.7 _ +4.1 _ +4.0 __ +5.4 _ +3.6 _ +4.6 __ +4.2 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 Snowfall contest was updated to Mar 31 back in Feb section. hudsonvalley21 currently leading in scoring for lowest total errors.

I took Don's list of snowfalls after today's date, and added cases down to 3", to find out how many followed significant early spring (late winter) warmth ... 50-50 as it appears ... TOP SNOWFALLS after March 20 ___ MAX TEMP BEFORE SNOWFALL EVENT (starting Feb 1, Jan cases noted) ______________________________________ for April events, also listed Max to Mar 31 if lower 1. 11.8", March 20-21, 1958 __________ 57 Mar 11 2. 10.2", April 3-4, 1915 _____________ 59 Mar 25 3. 10.0", April 12-14, 1875 ___________ 66 Apr 11 (60 Mar 30) 4. 9.6", April 6, 1982 ________________ 65 Apr 1 (60 Mar 30) 5. 9.0", March 22, 1967 _____________ 72 Mar 11 6. 8.5", April 1, 1924 _________________66 Mar 30 7. 8.4", March 21-22, 2018 __________ 78 Feb 21 ___ 11. Apr 2, 2018 8t. 6.5", April 8-9, 1917 ______________83 Apr 1 8t. 6.5" April 5, 1944 ________________62 Mar 25 (also Jan 27) 10. 6.4", April 6-7, 1938 ______________77 Mar 22 11. 5.5", Apr 2, 2018 ___ see 7. above 12t. 5.0", April 9, 1905 _______________73 Mar 28, 29 12t. 5.0", Mar 22, 1998 ______________ 58 Feb 26, 27 (65 Jan 8) 14t. 4.5", Mar 30, 1883 ______________ 60 (Mar 2, 18) 14t. 4.5", Mar 23-24, 1896 ___________ 57 Feb 6 ____ also 3.0" Apr 6-7 16. 4.2", April 8, 1956 ________________ 66 Apr 5 (63 Mar 5) 17. 4.1", Mar 28-29, 1996 _____________ 63 Mar 14 18t. 4.0", Mar 29, 1970 _______________ 57 Feb 22 18t. 4.0", Apr 7, 2003 ________________ 69 Mar 17, 29 20. 3.6" Mar 30-Apr 1 1890 __________ 71 Mar 12 21. 3.3", Mar 28-29, 1984 ____________ 63 Feb 24 22. 3.2", Mar 22, 1992 _______________ 64 Feb 23, Mar 9 23t. 3.0", Apr 25, 1875 ___ see 3 above 23t. 3.0", Apr 18, 1887 _______________ 79 Apr 10 (63 Feb 11) ============================= (25 cases in all, 22 different years, so 1 in 7 freq for 3.0" snowfalls after today's date

A bit late but Tuesday (18th) marked the 100th anniversary of the tri-state tornado (1925).

84F at STL today, still feel 80 is possible in parts of region Wed. Can see some sea breeze potential to early afternoon (and all day east of Bay).

With the SW wind it probably will soar towards 80F in places.

I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? Extreme warmth in early spring is often correlated with below normal temperatures in late spring and early summer. For example in 1945 it was warmer from mid-March to mid-April than it was from mid-May to mid-June in a lot of places in the northeastern states and Ontario.

You guys will hit 85-90F next week the way things are looking. Even so, it could in theory snow in April after some warmth in March. I believe it snowed in Apr 1938 after very warm readings in March.

I posted info about 2d 6.0" snowfalls in those intervals, the 1949-56 interval ends in Jan 1954 for 2d snow (9th-10th), and the 1917-1921 interval ends in Feb 1920, the other intervals all appear to survive intact (no interior 2d 6.0" totals), albeit some very close to 6.0" values. The post on this was back around midnite.

I had a look at daily snowfall data to check for 2d totals of 6.0" and found following facts, generally speaking the list is almost intact for absence of 2d 6.0" totals, with one significant exception (1917 to 1921 ended as Don already mentioned with a 3-day total of 17" of snow in Feb 1920). 1949-56 was also reduced to 1949-54. Details follow ... 1949 03-01 to 1956 03-15 ... 5.8" Jan 28 (5.5") -29 (0.3") 1952 was closest to invalidating for 2d 6", no other 2d snowfalls exceeded 5" until Jan 10-11 1954 (7.8") broke the streak for 2d at 1409 days (03-01-1949 also removed for being tail end of a 2d 9.8"). ... in third place in revised 2d list. 1996 02-17 to 2000 12-29 ... 5.5" Jan 25 2000, and 5.0" mar 22 1998, were one-day events and no 2d 6.0" snowfalls intervened. As there was snow on 1996 02-17, interval is shortened by one day. This (1996 02-18 to 2000 12-29) became longest interval with no 2d 6.0" events at 1777 days. 1987 01-23 to 1990 12-27 ... 5.8" Jan 3-4 1988 was largest 2d fall so, taking away one day (1990 12-27) this interval stays at 1434 days in second place for absence of 2d 6.0". 1929 02-22 to 1932 12-16 ... 3.9" Dec 23-24 1930 was largest 2d fall so entire interval was also devoid of any 2d 6.0" falls, at 1394 days, it is fourth longest. 1917 12-14 to 1921 02-19 ... 5.9" Jan 22 1918 narrowly avoided taking 38 days off this interval, but 5.7" Feb 3, 5.9" Feb 4 and 5.4 " Feb 5 1920 were well over 6" for 2d and as it had snowed on 1917-12-14 the revised interval dropped to 1917 12-15 to 1920 02-02, for only 780 days. 1971 01-02 to 1974 02-07 ... 5.7" Feb 19 1972 and 5.9" Jan 9-10 1974 failed to reduce this interval which stays at 1133 days (fifth place now tied with 2022-25). The present interval starting 2022 01-30 to 2025 03-07 is devoid of any 2d intervals greater than 4". Thus only one of the 6.0" avoidance spells drops out ahead of the present one, if we take two day totals as criterion (the 1917-21 interval). Only one other (1949-56 >> 1949-54) was significantly shortened, while remaining ahead of 2022-25. Looking at the other three intervals already passed, 1885-1888 had no 2d falls greater than 6.0" in winters of 1885-86 and 1886-87 or Jan-Feb 1888. 1983-1986 interval was shortened by 6.9" falling mar 8-9, 1984. 1975-1978 is also intact despite close call in Jan 1977.

That's the tariffs coming into effect. Expect some 120 degree highs in July also.

I gave a break on late penalties in Feb (to RJay and so_whats_happening), and I'll do the same for you two as you posted in a similar time frame. Let's say every regular forecaster can expect a break once during the contest year, with second late appearances being penalized as per lenient rules we have. I only impose 1% per half day to 3rd then it would start to increase (after 18z 3rd) to 1% per hour. All scoring for Feb complete, added Four Seasons winter rankings to previous post today (2nd). Table of forecasts will follow as I think all regular entrants are in now. __ Table of forecasts for March 2025 __ FORECASTER ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Maxim ______________________________ +6.3 _+5.5 _+5.7 __ +8.0 _+5.5 _ +5.5 ___ +5.1 _+0.7 _-1.0 StormchaserChuck1 ________________ +4.7 _+4.5 _+4.8 __ +7.0 _+4.5 _ +3.8 ___ +3.2 _+2.4 _-2.7 so_whats_happening _______________ +4.5 _+3.9 _+2.2 __ +4.8 _+4.2 _ +4.1 ___ -0.5 _ -2.8 _ -1.6 RJay ________________________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 _ +3.0 ___ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 wxallannj ___________________________ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +4.0 _+2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.7 _ -1.0 Tom ________________________________ +2.8 _+2.7 _+3.1 ___ +5.8 _+2.9 _ +4.8 ___ +3.1 _ +1.3 _ -1.9 hudsonvalley21 _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+3.3 ___ +2.9 _+3.6 _ +3.5 ___ +1.8 _ -0.3 _-0.6 ___ Consensus ____________________+2.3 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+2.9 _+2.9 _+3.0 __+1.0 _+0.2 _-1.0 BKViking ____________________________ +2.0 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___ +2.5 _+3.2 _+3.0 ___ +1.2 _+0.2 _-1.0 DonSutherland1 _____________________ +2.0 _+1.4 _+1.4 ___ +3.6 _+2.0 _ +3.2 ___ +2.4 _+1.0 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _____________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ 0.0 wxdude64 ___________________________+0.6 _+0.4 _-0.2 ___ +0.8 _+1.9 _+2.2 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _-0.7 RodneyS _____________________________+0.4 _+0.7 _+0.6 ___ +1.1 _ -0.4 _ +2.1 ___ +0.5 _-0.3 _ -0.2 ___ Normal ____________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _________________________ -1.5 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 ___ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 ___ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _______ +1.0 _ -0.8 _ -1.1 ___ -1.6 _ +4.1 _ +2.4 ___ -1.5 _ +6.1 _ -3.6 ================= [] =================== Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded (Persistence not incl) ... Normal is colder for IAH.

Clear and mild around here past two days, our 2' snowpack is slowly evaporating. Wonderful view of crescent moon near Venus after sunset -- will repeat in a different orientation Sunday evening. Also easy to find, Jupiter almost overhead at sunset, and mars to its east.

DAILY RECORDS for NYC (March) DATE ___ TEMPERATURES ___________________________________________ PRECIP ________________________________ notes _________ High max ___ high min _____ Low max ___ Low min ________ Max prec ___ Max snow ___ Max 2d snow _ Mar 01 __ 73 1972 ___ 54 2017 _______ 16 1886 _____ 4 1869 _______ 2.95 1914RS_13.5 1914 ____13.5 1914* Mar 02 __ 72 1972 ___ 50 1972, 91 ______ 21 1884 _____ 9 1891 _______ 2.41 2007R__10.0 1896 ____14.5 1914 (8.3" 2009 1.8+6.5) Mar 03 __ 68 2024^___49 2020 ______ 26 1943,50,2009 _11 2003^____ 2.25 1906R___12.5 1960 ____12.5 1960* Mar 04 __ 70 1974 ___ 51 1880 _______ 20 1873 _____ 6 1872 _______ 1.65 1977R___6.0 1893,1917__14.5 1960 Mar 05 __ 72 1880 ___ 50 1979 _______ 10 1872 _____ 3 1872 _______ 1.81 1920RS__8.6 1981 ____ 8.6 1981* Mar 06 __ 68 1935, 2022 _50 2011 ____ 17 1901 _____ 5 1872 _______ 2.63 1979R___7.6 1916 ____ 8.6 1981** Mar 07 __ 74 1946, 2022 _51 2009 ___ 20 1913 _____ 7 1890 _______ 1.87 1967R___6.0 1870 ____ 7.7 1915 (6.9+0.8) Mar 08 __ 76 1987 ___ 54 1987 _______ 23 1883 _____ 8 1883 _______ 1.78 1941S__ 15.7 1941 ____ 18.1 1941 Mar 09 __ 77 2016 ___ 48 2000 ______ 24 1996 _____11 1996 _______ 1.82 1998R___5.3 1928 ____15.7 1941** Mar 10 __ 79 2016 ___ 63 2016 _______ 28 1987 _____12 1929 ________1.62 1994R___ 6.0 1907 ____ 6.0 1907* Mar 11 __ 73 1977 ___ 50 1967, 77 _____ 28 1885 _____14 1960 _________2.94 1901R___3.8 1896 ____ 6.0 1907** Mar 12 __71 1890, 2012_ 52 2021 /_______ 26 1900 _____ 8 1888 ________2.33 1962R__16.5 1888 ____16.5 1888* Mar 13 __ 85 1990 ___ 54 2012 _______ 12 1888 _____ 6 1888 _________3.86 2010R__10.2 1993 ____19.5 1888 Mar 14 __ 75 1946 ___ 51 1953 _______ 28 1892 _____12 1888 _________1.97 2017RS__7.6 2017 ____10.6 1993 Mar 15 __ 77 1990 ___ 51 2024^ ______ 24 1900 _____14 1993 (33) ___ 1.81 1912R___6.0 1906 ____ 7.6 2017** Mar 16 __ 82 1990 ___ 55 1990 _______ 20 1911 _____13 1911 _________ 2.03 2007RS__8.4 1896 ____12.0 1896_ 2007 prec incl 5.5" snow Mar 17 __ 75 1945 ___ 53 1990 _______ 25 1885,1900 __ 9 1916 ________ 1.42 1968R___3.5 1877 ____ 8.4 1896** Mar 18 __ 77 1989, 2011 _51 2011 _______20 1967 _____7 1916 (24) _____ 3.10 1983R___7.1 1892 ____ 8.0 1892 Mar 19 __ 76 1918 ___ 55 2012 _______ 22 1877 _____ 8 1967 _________ 2.19 1881R___7.8 1956 ____11.6 1956 Mar 20 __ 83 1945 ___ 57 1948 ______ 21 1885 _____11 1885 _________ 1.93 1913R___4.7 1958 ____ 7.8 1956** Mar 21 __ 84 1921 ___ 57 2012 _______ 21 1885 _____10 1885 _________ 2.21 1980R___8.2 2018 ____11.8 1958 Mar 22 __ 78 2012^___57 1948 _______ 22 1885 _____12 1885 _________3.44 1977R___9.0 1967 ____ 9.8 1967 Mar 23 __ 76 1923,2012_ 58 2012 ______ 20 1888 _____13 1875, 1934___3.66 2024R^__4.3 1896 ____ 9.0 1967** Mar 24 __ 76 1988 ___ 52 1903 _______ 26 1888 _____12 1888 ________ 2.05 1989R___1.2 1956 ____ 4.5 1896 Mar 25 __ 79 1963^___61 1913 _______ 30 1873,78 __13 1878 _________ 4.25 1876R___0.5 1876,99__ 1.2 1956**^ Mar 26 __ 82 2021/ __ 52 1986, 2021_35 1872,1937,47_20 1960 (35,36 25th,26th)_1.42 1913R__1.2 1924 ___ 1.2 1924* Mar 27 __ 83 1998 ___ 61 1949 _______ 30 1894 _____ 20 1894 _______ 1.79 1919R___1.0 1886 ____ 1.2 1924** Mar 28 __ 84 1945^___ 63 1998 _______33 2022*_____13 1923 _______ 2.98 2005R___1.5 1984 ____ 1.5 1984* (1.4" snow 1919) Mar 29 __ 86 1945^___ 62 1998^______ 29 1887 _____10 1923 (32) ___ 2.03 1984RS__4.0 1970 ____ 4.1 1996 (0.3+3.8) 1984 1.8" snow Mar 30 __ 82 1998^___ 59 1998 _______31 1884 _____ 16 1887 (33) ___ 2.45 2010R___4.5 1883 ____ 4.5 1883* Mar 31 __ 86 1998 ____ 66 1998 _______34 1923 _____ 14 1923 _______ 2.20 1934R___2.8 1890 ____ 4.5 1883** -- - - - - - - - - - - - -- 2d records are for date and previous date. * for 2d record = all fell on date, none previous date ** for 2d record = all fell on previous date, none on table date ^ notes above for March (not incl above general notes) 3rd _ previous record 65F 1991. 2024, min 48F fell one below 2020 record. 3rd _ Low min 11 also 1925,38,43,50,62 (and 2003) 12th _ / replaces 50F 1898 15th _ 2024 record high min 51F replaced 49F 1913, 2019 22nd _ max 77F 1938 23rd _ new rainfall record 2024 replaces 1.60" 1929R 25th _ max 75F 1910 25th _ cold rain 1912 could have incl sleet, 1-5" snow, missing snow data 26th / _ new record max 2021 replaces 76 1922. 28th _ max 79 1946, 29th max 78 1946, 29th min 60 1945, 57 1946 28th _ low max 33F 2022 replaced 34F 1893. 30th _ max 78F 1910

First and second of March 1972 were very warm, and set records, but second half was cold, as was most of April. Wonder if that's how 2025 will also turn out? (Agnes around June 21-23 1972 also record cold and wet, May 1972 was warm, July hot and Aug-Sep near average, Oct cold).

-1.5 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 _ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.3

Don, all of those 43-52 ranked winters had big heat waves later.

Re 1846: William S. Forrest, in "Historical and Descriptive Sketches of Norfolk and Vicinity" in 1853, recorded the Great Gust of 1846. The Great Gust was a severe coastal storm that produced 5 feet waves in Norfolk. Toronto (station started in 1840) recorded 41" of snow in 3 separate storms Feb 9-22 1846, (22" fell in last one) and it then turned record cold. While this storm pounded Norfolk, VA it was -16, -17F for record lows on Feb 27, 28 at Toronto. Very similar to a setup Feb 29-mar 2, 1980. (Virginia Beach 20" snow) ... any idea if NYC got snow in 1846 or did the low stay south?

Those 1717 dates are Julian calendar, if they had been in Gregorian (that began in 1752 in the British colonies) it would have been eleven days later. There is a mention of a Sunday, Feb 24 -- this proves my point, calendars repeat every 28 years (except for missing leap years in 1800 and 1900). 308 years later (2025) is 28 x 11 ... so the 1717 calendar, if Gregorian (n.s.) would have a Sunday Feb 21. In the Julian calendar (eleven days were removed in 1752) it would be Feb 10, and so Feb 24 was also a Sunday. The significance is that the biggest snowfalls were in early to mid-march in our calendar, same timing as the blizzard of 1888. Sunday, Feb 24 is actually march 7 in modern calendar, and march 7 of 1717 would be march 18 if using new style.

A reminder to enter March forecast contest in 2025 contest thread.