Roger Smith

Did you know ... back in 1888 the people of New York City got a weather forecast from the U.S. Weather Bureau in Washington DC that was sent by telegraph. The blizzard of 1888 knocked down the telegraph lines so the newspaper never got the Sunday afternoon forecast calling for a heavy snowstorm! (also, The DC to NYC train got stuck in NJ in big snow drifts). So when it started to rain Sunday evening and that turned to snow, few had any idea what was about to happen (20 to 40 inches of snow across the region). But the storm WAS forecast by the existing technology (it had already started to snow in DC around forecast time and they had been tracking the snow moving northeast up the eastern seaboard. I happened to find out about this by reading the newspaper in question to satisfy my curiosity about the storm's forecast and impacts; it appeared from the Saturday paper's forecast that the usual practice was to issue a 24-hour forecast with a second day guess and that second day guess was something like rain turning to snow, no indication of severity. Partly because of this outcome, the Weather Bureau set up an office in New York City by 1895 and I guess the telephone was becoming more widely used every year too, so there were different ways of communicating the forecast to the newspaper. I think it's fair to say most Americans got a weather forecast from the daily newspaper only until maybe 1920 after which the radio began to compete as a source. This particular newspaper was published twice daily seven days a week in the morning and again before the supper hour. It would be in that second edition that New Yorkers would find their weather forecast. I checked some other forecasts later in 1888 and they were surprisingly good actually. Maybe the GFS worked better then.

Coastal low now stacked to 700 mbs and 500 mb center is accelerating through VA. Net motion likely to be NNW for a while then NNE until capture, after which ENE. Recent measurement 30 miles off Long Island shows ocean temp is only 34F there.

@dseagull I saw that location and wondered if you were on the barrier island or the mainland? You are going to see quite a storm unfold there. I posted somewhere that a max snowfall depth of 30-36 inches could verify in central NJ, Freehold to Sayreville would be my guess as to where, possibly extending south towards Mt Holly. Winds likely to increase rapidly next three hours and peak around 8 pm to midnight.

You can only imagine how intense this will be when the coastal starts bombing out, the upper support is hours away from phasing even now. 500 mb low is over WV, 700 mb central VA to w/c PA. I can't see any process by which this retracts the development south so it's virtually at the doorstep now. The usual rule seems to be that maximum snow bands are always a bit further north than models anticipate. All high end forecasts are probably in play here but I just wonder if it's going to zoom past eventually which will cut down on the most aggressive forecast totals. The contest consensus values are in the range of 19 to 23 inches like the NWS forecasts. A few are closer to the 25 to 30 inch range, and a few are more conservative in the 12 to 16 range.

The 500 mb low is now over WV and 700 mb lows are detaching (one in central PA and one in central VA). When these get to the coast the primary will already be explosively deepening but expect the heaviest snow rates after the phasing gets that close, which I estimate will be 7-8 p.m. From there to around 7 a.m. there could be 2" to 4" an hour rates in parts of NJ, DE and e PA.

500 mb low now close to Charleston WV, not into any rapid deepening yet. 700 mb low appears to be detaching a coastal component over central VA from a mean center over w/c PA. Think this just keeps intensifying at current rates for 3-4 more hours and then goes boom.

I think the IVT is forming out of a secondary arctic front which will get squeezed into the circulation around the bombing coastal low. It won't be able to advance much further east than north-south through DC. The 500 mb low is currently located near central Ohio and will not phase with the coastal low until almost 00z, so there are many hours of gradual development leading to the rapid intensification phase. Milder air is being slowly transformed to a sub-freezing or near-freezing saturated air mass as heights fall over the entire region in advance of the 500 mb low reaching Chesapeake Bay around 21z. I think it will be snowing hard in many parts of this region by then. Rain will be suppressed to a line from RIC to Ocean City MD southeast.

A boatload of weather weenies was last seen rowing south into the death band.

500 mb low is now in central Ohio, won't be off the coast for ten more hours. And the storm is already cranking. The surface low appears to be east of Norfolk at about 1000 mb now. It wouldn't be a traditional GFS coup if they didn't drop the baton at the last pass.

Sadly the two (so far) forecasts posted after the deadline are not going to be in the contest but I will let those people know what their rank would have been as on-time entrants. It's not a hard and fast metric because if the deadline had been later some of the forecasts might have been edited.

I may have passed on by 2036.

I found five entries that were listed in a different order than the contest template, so if you check your entry and think I have errors in your predictions, double check the locations. The most common change was to go NYC LGA JFK ISP EWR, but there was also one NYC ISP JFK LGA EWR.

Blizzard of 1888 started with a bit of rain too. It was around 38F when the precip began with that historic storm on a similar track.

The 500 mb low is still back in Ohio and the explosive development phase has barely begun. This won't look anything like it does now by 18z.

Some place within 20 miles of Sayreville to Freehold NJ could have those kinds of totals (30-36 in) and severe drifting. They may be driving snowmobiles down the NJ Turnpike rescuing stranded people.

I would be worried for people returning from weekends away, let's say up to Vermont or upstate NY, w PA etc, who might not have heard about the impending blizzard and will be driving into the storm.

Has the gov't of New Jersey issued any stay off the roads warnings yet? Around late afternoon or evening I could imagine a lot of people getting stranded in life-threatening conditions on those wide open freeways. The only storm I can recall with three feet of snow and 65 mph wind gusts was Blizzard of 78 in eastern MA, or any given mega-squall event in Great Lakes region. And I know of cases where people were trapped for 24-36 hours in vehicles and after rescue locally were then stranded in community centers for 5-7 days. I wouldn't expect it to go on that long in NJ but it would be at least Wednesday before there's any semblance of normal mobility if some of this guidance is correct. Long Island won't be much different.

Upton was close to our contest consensus earlier and is now about 3" higher in general.

Thanks, Don, I found an earlier version that was a bit less aggressive. Will use your later one instead. What would you say for LGA (they don't specify) ... I will say 21.5" given the other data. These were the earlier ones 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK ... 17.1" EWR

How? Weather balloon?

I would be inclined to go 27" Plymouth and 23" Boston.

What are current NWS forecasts for the contest sites? I will put those into the contest (30 entries, now closed). Never mind, I found the map ... 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK, 17.1" EWR ... I am sure I saw higher values earlier so they have cut back slightly. They don't specify LGA so I took a map interpolation for that one.

Table of entries _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026 ... order of entry is determined by NYC forecasts ... FORECASTER ___________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR ____________ (error sq) _______ (error) TriPOL __________________ 29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ________ coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 ________ kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 ________ UKWeatherGeek ________22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 _________ hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 _________ dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 _________ WeatherGeek2025 ______21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 _________ ___ NWS 07z fcsts ______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ________ CPcantmeasuresnow____ 19.8_19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 _________ Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 __________ MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 _________ hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 _________ Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_19.7 __________ brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 __________ JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 __________ NsWx516 ________________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 _________ __ Consensus (median)__ 18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 _________ Snowlover11 _____________ 18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 _________ jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 __________ DonSutherland1 _________ 17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 __________ A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 __________ RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_ 20.0_19.0 __________ Roger Smith _____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 __________ SACRUS _________________ 16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 __________ NegNAO _________________ 15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 __________ hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 __________ Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 __________ Juliancolton _____________ 13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 __________ WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 __________ BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 __________ Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 __________ dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 ___________ <<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>> 30 entries received by deadline consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank will not be affected by their rank.

Yes, that might be accurate for drift-tops

22" PHL and 35" local max (central NJ about halfway across) 18-24 ACY, depends on accuracy of measurement in very strong winds, drifting etc.