Roger Smith

Note there is a "predict the cold" contest for the interval Saturday to Monday, thank you for your attention to this matter.

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be. I will start off with a MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast. Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days. Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late). My entry will be considered last entry so I won't tie-break anyone entering at any time. For purposes of this contest only, differential of zero snowfall to Trace, and Trace to 0.1" snowfall will be taken as equal whether it really is equal by degree of the trace observed or not. Your template if you want to use it MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___" Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry. MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F). but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus. DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th). Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed. ___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total.

Looks like 0.2" to 0.5" potential (snow not QPF sadly) ... Friday night into Saturday may start to show slight snow potential too in advance of bitterly cold arctic outbreak. Would expect some in mountains at very least.

Total or near-total snowfall shutouts at NYC from Feb 1 to Apr 30 include 2002 and 2020 (Tr amounts, and 2012 (0.2"). These were after poor starts of 3.5" (Jan 2002), 4.8" (Dec 2019, Jan 2020) and 7.2" (Oct 2011 and Jan 2012). 1878 was also quite poor, 2.0" in Feb and no snow in March or April followed just 6.1" in Jan 1878. 1953-54 was not much better with 0.9" in total Feb-Apr following 14.9" (Nov 1953 and Jan 1954; Dec 1953 also had no snow). 1931-32 and 1972-73 were low-snowfall throughout. In 1932, 2.4" followed just 2.9" earlier, and in 1973, 1.0" followed 1.8". Recent dud winters 2022-23 and 2023-24 had most of their small totals in February so they don't make this list. Other low producers include some better winters overall ... These are the winters that had less than 2.0" in total from Feb 1 on (in addition to the above seven generally low-snowfall winters) ... 1924-25 ... 1.3" followed 28.3" mostly in Jan 1924. 1952-53 ... 1.3" followed 13.8" from Oct 1952 to Jan 1953 1970-71 ... 1.7" followed 13.8" from Dec 1970 and Jan 1971. 1987-88 ... 1.5" followed 17.6" from Nov 1987 to Jan 1988. If this winter produces less than 2" more snow, it would be the second largest winter snowfall to include that level of snow drought (1924-25 would remain ahead) Conversely, the highest winter snowfall following 22" or less to Jan 31 appears to be 1993-94, starting Feb with 18.9" and ending the winter at 53.4" ... second is 1906-07, going from 12.3" after Jan 1907 to 53.2" by end of April 1907. Third place goes to 1933-34 (15.5" to 52.0"), then fourth was 1966-67 when 10.5" expanded to 51.5" after a snowy Feb and Mar 1967, next fifth place 2009-10 when 14.9" ended up at 51.4", followed by (tied) sixth place 1915-16 going from 8.8" to 50.7" matched the next year (1916-17) when 14.3" went to 50.7" ... 8th was 2014-15 (17.9" to 50.3") then 9th 2002-03 (15.9" to 49.3") and 10th 1919-20 going from 17.0" to 47.6", then 11th 1895-96, at only 3.0" to end of Jan, adding 43.0" in Feb to Apr 1896 for a total of 46.0" (after which it turned record hot for about a month mid-April to mid-May) ... and 12th place was 1887-1888 which got to 45.5" from 20.3" after Jan, adding just 3.0" in Feb and the Blizzard of 1888 plus a few other inches in March (22.2") (and none in April). 13th place is 1958 (went from 17.9" to 44.7" total). More recently 2020-2021 added more than half of its total of 38.6" after Feb 1st (barely). It would be nice if 2026 could find a place in this rather extensive list.

This very cold outbreak being shown on maps for Sunday-Monday has potential to deliver one of the coldest set of low max and min seen around the northeast in decades. The source of the cold air is northern Quebec and the trajectory never crosses the Great Lakes (Hudson Bay either, although it is now frozen over anyway). Lake Ontario has temperatures in the 32-37 F range and Lake Erie is frozen so early stages of the onset with some of the air mass encountering those lakes will not modify much. Strong winds will reduce the potential for all-time lows in rural areas but will increase the potential for urban settings because the urban heat island is reduced considerably in windy weather -- the chilled air has no time to absorb the city's heat and differentials from city to suburbs to rural outlying areas is often no greater than what elevation alone might produce, certainly a smaller amount of urban heating than the usual 10-15 F deg on cold, clear and still nights. I looked at the thickness parameters and could see how NYC might stay below 10 F all day and dip below 0 F at night, -3 F would be the coldest I could imagine NYC getting. After the exceptional -17F in Dec 1917 and -15 F in Feb 1934, the benchmark lowest values are -8 (Feb 1943) and since then, -2 (Feb 1961, Feb 1963, Jan 1977, Jan 1985, Jan 1994) ... the only subzero reading after 1994 is the -1 F from Feb 2016. (it was also -1 in Dec 1980 and in Jan 1968 and 1976. Since 2016 the lowest reading at NYC is 2F on Jan 31, 2019 (matched by Feb 2015). It would be quite spectacular to get below zero at all, let alone coldest since 1943 (83 winters ago). The winter of 1942-43 had two very cold readings, the other one in Dec 1942 (-3 F). There have not been any sub-10 daily max values since the 9F of Jan 21, 1985. It was 10F in Jan 1994. Sub-10 maxima are quite rare in general, especially since 1943. Besides 1985, the only cases of a sub-10 maximum at NYC are these: 2F _ Dec 30, 1917 3F _ no cases exist 4F _ Dec 30 1880 ... Feb 5, 1918 5F _ no cases exist 6F _ Jan 24, 1882 ... Dec 31 1917 7F _ Jan 3, 1879, ... Dec 20 1884 ... Feb 5 1886 ... Feb 10 1899 ... Feb 17 1896 8F _ Jan 12, 1886 ... Feb 8 1895 ... Dec 29 1917 ... Jan 13 1912 ,,, Feb 9 1934 ... Dec 20 1942 ... Feb 15 1943 9F _ Dec 21, 1871 ... Feb 2, 1881 ... Feb 11, 12 1899 ... Jan 13 1914 ... Jan 21 1985 10F _ Mar 5, 1872 ... Feb 7, 1875 ... Dec 29 and 31 1880 ... Dec 23 1883 ... Jan 28 1888 ... Feb 24 1894 ,,, Feb 6 1895 ... Jan 1 and 2, 1918 ... Feb 17, 1958 ... Jan 19 1994 Since 1994, 13F Jan 6 2018 is lowest ... even such notable cold months as Jan 1977, Feb 1979 or 2015, and even Dec 1872 failed to set a 10 or lower max. Highs from Dec 24 to Dec 27 1872 were 13, 15, 12, 15 and there was an 18" snowfall on the 26th. Of course, the sub-10 F reading has to survive midnight highs at either end of the calendar day. The daylight hours of Jan 31, 1920 were probably sub-10F as well, for one example. Remarkably, the highest temperature from Feb 9 to 13 1899 was 11 F and that bitterly cold spell ended with the Blizzard of 1899 13th-14th. Dec 29 1917 to Jan 2 1918 never went higher than 10 F. Three dates before NYC began record keeping that almost certainly rivalled Dec 30 1917 would be Jan 23 1857, Jan 9 1859 and Feb 6 1855. One or more of those could have remained below zero all day had NYC been operating then.

Even if it doesn't snow again, this winter has passed 56 other winters for total snowfall (at 21.1" NYC). If it snows 3 more inches it will pass another eleven. If it snows another 6" it will pass a total of 80 (of 158) and be close to passing several more. My stats include a higher value for 1868-69 than just the snow measured Jan 1 to Apr 1869 as Dec 1868 was a cold month with coastal lows indicated on weather charts, so I assumed that winter made it to around 35" ... the median value for all winters is a bit lower than the mean by about one inch. Don could confirm this but I believe this winter could be ahead of 1887-88 at this point of the winter severity index. It probably will stay ahead for a while but I don't like its chances during March.

Table of forecasts for February 2026 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA PositiveEPO Enjoyer ______ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+2.4 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+3.0 _+0.5 _+0.8 Scotty Lightning ___________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 ____ Normal ________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 BKViking __________________-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.5 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 so_whats_happening ______-2.2 _ -2.3 _ -2.5 __ -1.0 _ -0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +1.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________-2.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.8 __ -2.7 _ -0.5 _ +0.3 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +2.3 wxallannj __________________-3.0 _ -2.8 _ -2.6 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +0.4 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 dmillz25 ___________________-3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.5 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ____ Consensus __________ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -1.0 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 DonSutherland1 ___________-3.0 _ -3.3 _ -3.3 __ -0.3 _ -1.5 _ +1.8 __ +5.0 _ +3.4 _ +3.6 wxdude64 ________________ -3.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ +1.7 _ +2.4 _ +2.1 Tom _______________________-4.2 _ -4.5 _ -4.6 __ -2.6 _ -2.8 _ -0.6 __ +3.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.7 RJay _______________________-5.0 _ -5.0 _ -5.0 __ -2.5 _ -2.2 _ +3.0 __ +3.3 _+3.0 _+2.2 Roger Smith _______________-5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 __ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 RodneyS __________________-8.5 _ -9.0 _ -8.9 __ -3.7 _ -2.5 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 _ +2.4 _ +1.2 _____________________________________ Persistence (Jan 2026) ___ -4.2 _ -3.3 _ -1.9 __ -3.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.7 _ +4.3 _ +0.6 ============================== will add color codes later, will have to consider whether or not warmest should be dual-format depending on next month entries. (having a one and done as warmest should be along with warmest regular forecaster for extreme forecast designations but if the new entrant makes more forecasts then they would have exclusive access for designation) (coldest forecasts are mostly among last two entries shown, except for western region where BKV or SL have them) All of our western forecasts are above normal. All but a few eastern and ORD-ATL are below. IAH is more variable. <<< table will be adjusted if further entries are received >>>

March 12th.

Temperatures have averaged about 10 degrees below normal since Jan 16th. This cold spell is very similar to one in 1961 when the temperatures flipped around mid-Feb to above normal values for 2-3 weeks. Not every Feb with a cold start flips, but others that did flip include 1977 and 1981 which followed quite a cold January and a bland first half of Feb with near-constant record warmth later in Feb 1981. Warmth in later Feb 1977 was less prolific but it kept warming steadily into a very warm March and April (and May apart from one freak arctic blast and snowfalls). Even 1918 which had bitter cold (from Dec 1917) to mid-February began to see some milder spells in a highly variable pattern later in Feb. On the other hand, 1979 and 2015 descended into very deep cold mid-month and beyond. The well-known extreme cold in mid-Feb 1943 was followed by a brief spell near 60F.

Punxsatawney Phil issued the following press release: AS THE TEMPERATURE INSIDE MY BURROW IS 62 DEGREES F AND OUTSIDE IT IS ABOUT -200 WIND CHILL, I WILL POLITELY DECLINE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PREDICT YOUR WEATHER AND IN ANY CASE, ACCORDING TO JOE BASTARDI WHERE I GET MY FORECAST, IT WILL REMAIN WINTRY COLD FOR SIX WEEKS. DON’T SHOOT THE MESSENGER.

I remember getting 24" of snow in Ontario in early April 1975 followed by several days of clear, cold weather with a similar sun angle to what you have there now ... we had a daily freeze-thaw cycle and the snow drifts froze solid, couldn't move them at all. That snow never melted, it just sublimated over ten days until most of it was gone. It was bone dry all through that period. Maybe you will see something similar, the snow just gradually disappearing with little or no runoff to the water table.

LOL better ski conditions on sand dunes at Cape Hatteras than here at our ski resort, rain and 38F past few days here. Just a note to a few readers, contest deadline was moved back to Feb 2nd 06z (because I thought people would be fully occupied tracking a snowstorm, well anyway) ... so get in there no penalty yet. The January anomalies did some crazy nose dives, DEN was at one point +11.1 and ended up +2.7, ATL went from around +6 to just +0.4 (anomaly), and IAH went all the way down to +0.9 with the late surge of cold air. DCA had an anomaly of -4.2 F. Snow cover matters. ... PHX never got into colder air very much and finished +4.3 F.

1857 must have surprised and perhaps shocked people, it went from brutal cold all through January (which had also been the case in Jan 1856 and Feb 1855) and it stayed cold a few days into February, then it turned right around and went to the other extreme. I think I read about severe ice-jam flooding in CT and MA around mid-February. There was heavy rain and temperatures in the low 60s (after the record cold 17th to 24th of January that included one heavy snowfall). The rest of that year was largely near record cold too.

A severe cold spell you may not know about happened in Feb 1855. Caswell's weather diary from Providence RI states that on 6th and 7th, mins were -14F and -15F with max barely above zero. Then on 8th-9th 12.5" of snow fell at his location (within walking distance of Brown University where he was a professor). At that same time, Toronto had lows of -25F (on 5th and 6th) and daytime highs below zero (-6F on 6th). Caswell's diary runs from late 1831 to early 1860 with very few interruptions. The winter weather from 1854 to 1857 was exceptionally cold and snowy, an even colder version of 2013-16 for snowstorms of note. I don't know of any other N American data from 1855, sure there would be some though. Feb 1855 was also very cold in Britain, their third coldest February of 367 years of record (mean -1.7 C) ... only 1895 and 1947 were colder. The coldest part of the month in Britain happened mid-month to 20th.

So I guess Islip wasn't operating in 1961, 1920 or 1881 (three years with subzero lows in the area). NYC at 30.4 F had its (tied) 55th coldest January of the now 158 in data, and using a sliding scale of 0 to 2 F for urban heat island conversion, it ranked 44th coldest. In that series, it was between 1963 (45th) and 2022 (43rd).