Roger Smith

Table of forecasts for December 2025 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Mercurial ______________________ +4.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 __-0.5 _+0.5 _+2.0___ -1.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.5 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ -1.6 _+1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +0.4 _+1.8 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ -1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 wxallannj ______________________ -1.0 _ -1.1 __-1.3 ___ -0.7 _+0.8 _+1.7 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 DonSutherland1 ________________-1.0 _ -2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.3 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___+1.4 _+1.1 _ +0.1 BKViking _______________________-1.2 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ___ -1.7 _+0.9 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.2 _+1.5 ___ Consensus _________________ -1.3 _ -1.7 _-1.8 ___ -2.8 _+0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __________ -1.4 _ -1.3 _ -1.6 ___ -2.6 _+0.8 _+1.2 ___+1.1 _+2.1 _ +0.6 Tom ____________________________-1.9 _ -2.7 _-2.8 ___ -3.9 _-0.9 _+0.5 ___+0.6 _+1.5 _+1.1 RJay ___________________________ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.0 _+1.2 _+0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 RodneyS _______________________ -3.6 _-3.0 _-2.3 ___ -4.7 _-2.5 _+0.9 ___+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ____________________-4.0 _-3.8 _-4.5 __ -5.9 _ -3.3 _ -1.5 ___-3.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.4 wxdude64 ______________________-4.4 _-3.1 _-3.3 __ -4.7 _ -2.5 _ -0.7 ___-0.9 _+0.8 _+2.3 ___ Persistence _________________ +0.4 _-0.8 _-0.5 __+1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4 ___+5.7 _+3.9 _+2.1 ===================== ____ Snowfall forecasts for winter 2025-26 ____ FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV wxallannj _______________________23.0 _28.0 _ 28.0 __45.0 _44.0 _89.0 ___44.0 _18.0 _ 99.0 Tom ____________________________ 19.5 _ 31.1 _ 44.5 __ 40.1 _42.4 _102.4 __54.8 _ 6.1 _ 81.4 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 18.0 _ 22.0 _ 31.0 __ 32.0 _42.0 _93.0 ___52.0 _ 4.0 _ 88.0 wxdude64 _____________________ 15.6 _ 28.6 _ 41.1 ___30.3 _45.5_ 101.5 ___ 66.2 _ 4.7 _ 93.3 BKViking _______________________ 15.0 _ 32.0 _ 41.0 __40.0 _22.0_ 96.0 ___ 58.0 _13.0 _ 80.0 Rjay ____________________________ 15.0 _ 21.0 _ 44.0 __50.0 _33.0_ 100.0 ___65.0 _ 6.0 _ 90.0 Scotty Lightning _______________ 15.0 _ 20.0 _ 25.0 __ 30.0 _45.0 _85.0 ___ 50.0 _ 5.0 _ 95.0 so_whats_happening __________ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 39.0 __ 42.0 _40.0 _91.0 ___ 38.0 _ 4.0 _ 87.0 Roger Smith ____________________12.8 _ 25.6 _ 50.7 __ 57.3 _61.5 _ 115.7 ___ 70.0 _12.5 _ 88.8 DonSutherland1 ________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ 40.0 __ 37.5 _45.0 _ 92.0 ___ 40.0 _ 6.5 _ 80.0 RodneyS ________________________ 6.7 _ 18.9 _ 35.7 __ 44.4 _49.1 _ 99.9 ___ 55.6 _ 9.1 _ 70.4 Mercurial ________________________1.0 _ 10.0 _ 20.0 __ 30.0 _ 30.0 _70.0 ___ 65.0 _ 6.0 _ 60.0 ===================== will be adding a few details to this, just wanted to get it posted before heading out ...

TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -4.0 -3.8 -4.5 -5.9 -3.3 -1.5 -3.6 -2.9 -2.4 SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD ____DTW ___ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 12.8" 25.6" 50.7" 57.3" 61.5" 115.7" 70.0" 12.5" 88.8"

Anyway, had a look at guidance and I can see some signs for optimism with this, but verbatim it looks just 2-3 F too warm to give much snow in the urban areas, could start off as snow and end as snow with sleet and rain during most of the event, 33-35 F zone would mix considerably. The optimism comes from the antecedent conditions getting a chill from the current snow event going through the GL region chilling the boundary layers of the arctic high following in ahead of your Tuesday storm. Also it does not look like very robust warm air advection is likely. If it would shift 50-100 miles south and the 540 dm thickness would stay south of JFK that would be ideal for accumulations of 5-8 inches with this but I think those are going to fall around POU into w CT.

There has never been a larger snowfall on Dec 2nd than 3.9" which happened in 1929 (NYC data). Another similar event was 3.8" 2nd-3rd 1903. The daily records for 1st to 3rd are 1.5" (1880), 3.9" (1929) and 3.0" (1903). A somewhat larger 8" snowfall happened on 4th of 1957 but early December does not have much going for it in the heavy snow department, Nov 30 1882 did better than all of those efforts (8" plus another inch on Dec 1). Maybe before records began in 1869 there was something bigger. I found several instances of severe cold in this part of the early winter that did not bring much snowfall, for example 1875 and 1926. (this is not meant to offer any sort of prediction, I am just looking at the guidance for this event for the first time now)

<<<<< DECEMBER NYC RECORDS 1869 to 2024 >>>>> _________ High max ___ high min _____ Low max ___ Low min ___________ Max prec ___ Max snow ___ Max 2d snow _ Dec 01 ___ 70 2006 __ 52 2001 ____ 18 1875 _____ 8 1875 __________ 1.72 1920 ___ 1.5 1880 __ 9.0 1882 ** Dec 02 ___ 66 1970 __ 52 1982 _____ 24 1876 _____11 1875 (27) _____2.16 1974 ___ 3.9 1929 __ 3.9 1929 * Dec 03 ___ 69 1998 __ 53 1998 _____ 23 1976 _____ 9 1976 __________1.63 1925 ___ 3.0 1903 __ 3.8 1903 Dec 04 ___ 74 1998^__ 59 1998 _____ 22 1889 ____ 10 1882 (34) ____ 1.84 1983 ___ 7.5 1957 __ 8.0 1957 Dec 05 ___ 70 2001 __ 56 1973,82 __ 22 1886 ____ 11 1926 (24) _____ 1.28 1993 ___ 8.0 2003 __ 8.0 2003 * Dec 06 ___ 71 2001 __ 58 2001 ______ 22 1926 ____13 1871, 1926_____ 1.60 1884 ___ 6.0 2003 __14.0 2003 Dec 07 ___ 75 1998 __ 54 2022^ ____ 26 1869 ____ 10 1926 (30) _____1.98 1908 ___2.0 1886 __ 6.0 2003 ** Dec 08 ___ 65 1927 __ 52 1951 ______ 19 1882 _____10 1882 __________ 1.54 1917 ___ 2.0 1928 __ 2.0 1928 Dec 09 ___ 66 1966 __ 54 1966 ______ 18 1902 ____ 7 1876 ___________2.54 2014 ___5.8 2005 __5.8 2005 * Dec 10 ___ 70 1946 __ 54 1946,66 ___ 16 1880 ____ 3 1876 (17) ______ 1.62 1878 ___ 1.4 2013 __ 5.8 2005 ** Dec 11 ___ 66 2021^__ 53 1887 ______ 20 1876 _____ 6 1880 (27) _____ 2.41 1992*___3.6 1960 __ 3.6 1960 * Dec 12 ___ 68 1931 __ 55 2015 ______ 20 1988 _____ 5 1988 ___________1.60 1983 ____11.6 1960 _15.2 1960 Dec 13 ___ 67 2015 __ 55 2015 ______ 20 1960 _____ 8 1960 __________3.03 1909^___8.0 1917 _11.6 1960 ** Dec 14 ___ 67 1881,2015_ 53 1901,2001,15_21 1902 ____12 1976 (31) _____2.22 1897 ____5.8 2003 __ 9.5 1917 Dec 15 ___ 68 2015 __ 53 2015 _______ 20 1874,1914_ 8 1874 _________1.34 1981 ____ 12.7 1916 __12.7 1916 * Dec 16 ___ 63 1971 __ 54 2021*_______ 19 1886 _____ 7 1876 (15 17th)_ 2.25 1974 ___6.8 1896 __12.7 1916 ** Dec 17 ___ 62 2000 _ 50 1888,2015 __ 15 1876 _____ 1 1919 (21) ______2.28 1888 ____6.7 1932 _ 10.5 2020^ Dec 18 ___ 63 1937,84 47 1996 _______ 11 1919 _____-1 1919 ___________2.21 2023* ___4.5 1887 __ 7.8 1932 Dec 19 __58 1899,1931 _ 45 1949,57,2017_ 16 1884 __-1 1884 __________1.19 1934 _____ 9.1 2009 __ 9.1 2009 * Dec 20 __ 60 1895,1999,2002_54 1957 __7 1884 __-4 1942 (8) _______1.92 1874 ____15.8 1948 __15.8 1948^ Dec 21 ___ 65 2013 __ 51 2013 ________ 9 1871 _______ -2 1871 _________ 2.49 1973 ___ 4.0 1884 __16.0 1948 Dec 22 ___ 71 2013 __ 61 2013 ________ 18 1989 _____ 4 1872 (28) _____ 2.18 1983 ___ 10.3 1959 __13.7 1959 Dec 23 ___ 66 1891,1990_57 1990 _____ 10 1883 _____-1 1883 __________ 1.83 2022^ __ 6.0 1963 __10.3 1959 ** Dec 24 ___ 72 2015 __ 63 2015 _______ 13 1872 _____ 6 1983 (22) _____ 1.42 2003 ___11.4 1912 __11.4 1912 Dec 25 ___ 66 2015^__57 2015 ________ 13 1983 _____-1 1980 (20) _____ 1.30 2002 __ 7.0 1909 __12.3 1883 (7.3+5.0) Dec 26 ___ 63 1936,82_ 50 1964 ______ 12 1872 _____ 3 1914 (15) ______ 2.36 1947 __ 26.1 1947 _ 26.1 1947 * Dec 27 ___ 63 1949 __ 57 1949 ________ 15 1872 _____ 6 1872 ___________ 1.39 1930 ___ 7.8 2010 _ 26.4 1947^ Dec 28 ___ 65 1982, 2008 __49 2024^ __17 1894 ____ 8 1917 (35) _____ 1.35 1926 ___ 6.6 1990 __ 7.8 2010 ** (7.2 1990) Dec 29 ___ 70 1984 __ 55 1984 ________ 8 1917 _____ -6 1917 ___________ 2.52 1901 ___ 4.0 1880 __ 6.6 1990** Dec 30 ___ 65 1984 __ 52 1948 ________ 2 1917 ____ -13 1917^ _________ 1.69 1912 __ 12.0 2000 __12.0 2000 * Dec 31 ___ 63 1965 __ 51 1965 _________ 6 1917 _____ -7 1917 ____________ 1.40 1948 ___4.0 1948 __12.0 2000 ** -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- NOTES: ... Temp values in brackets after low min show that day's max if it was not also the low max record. ... For 48h record snow values, which always run from previous date to current indicated date ... ... * indicates all precip fell same day, and ** indicates all fell previous day. The rest have some on both days. other notes: ^ 4th max 72 1982 ^ 7th high min 54F (2022) replaced 53F (1951, 1956) ^ 11th new record 66F 2021 broke 64F 1879. * 11th 2.35" 2008 (not record), 3.28" Dec 11-12 2008. ^ 13th 2.97" R 1941 ^ 16th-17th 2d snow 10.5" 2020 (6.5 + 4.0) * 16th 54F high min 2021 replaced 48F 1971 * 18th rainfall record replaced 1.30" 1876 ^ 19th-20th 2d snow 10.9" 2009 (9.1 + 1.8) also 10.0" 1874 20th ^ 23rd high precip 1.83" (2022) replaced 1.61" (1913) ^ note also 23rd new highest diurnal range at NYC (58, 8 = 50 range), replaced 48 from Mar 28, 1921 (82, 34). ^ 25th max 64 1889 ^ 26th 18.0" snow 1872, 12.2" 2012, (26-27 2d snow 2010 of 20.0") also 11.2" 1933 26th ^ 28th _ 49F high min (2023) replaced 47F 2008. xx 29th _ As the severe cold deepened in 1917, 2.0" snow was recorded on this date. ^ 30th min -6 1933 (max 12 29th, 16 30th)

A reminder to regular contest entrants (in main general interest forum) that Dec and winter snowfall forecasts can be posted now. Also an invite to all -- Dec is a good month to begin entering the contest because of the snowfall contest portion and also we look at seasonal scoring leaders too, but the main contest runs January to December so the invite is really for 2026 participation.

A reminder to regular contest entrants (in main general interest forum) that Dec and winter snowfall forecasts can be posted now. Also an invite to all -- Dec is a good month to begin entering the contest because of the snowfall contest portion and also we look at seasonal scoring leaders too, but the main contest runs January to December so the invite is really for 2026 participation.

Have had 3 inches of snow here past two days, not a big storm but looks like long-lasting snow cover with colder temperatures developing. Around 28 F now as the snow pulls away to southeast.

Post your Dec 2025 forecasts and add snowfall forecasts for the usual nine locations which I list below (three replace some of the warmer locations in our temperature contest, six are the same locations) ... TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV (snowfall forecasts will include anything already measured and go to the end of the season which can be May for DEN at least) This post will be edited into the annual scoring update, as you can see the Nov 2025 scores are already tabulated in a preliminary form in the previous post above. ----------------------------- Try to post the temperature portion by the usual deadline of Dec 1 06z, I can wait for the snowfall forecasts for a few days into December. Happy Thanksgiving.

Worth noting that the 1703 windstorm in southern England was on these dates in the Julian calendar and would have been on December 7-8 in the modern calendar (the change took place in 1752). The storm is often called the Daniel Defoe storm because the famous writer described it. There was also a storm surge up the Severn estuary that reached heights of over ten feet above high tide levels. This storm happened near the tail end of the Maunder minimum and that era had a number of very destructive windstorms around the North Sea region as well. Although that was a much colder climate, the year 1703 was relatively warm; there is some speculation that the low was an extratropical hurricane remnant although no direct evidence of this can be found; it did track in from the southwest.

Final scoring for November 2025 IAH raw scores were all below 50, boosted to max-60 by scoring all from +4.9 instead of the actual +5.7 ... as rank order scoring would have been less equitable and DEN scoring turned out to be raw scores as max raw score was 69. FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL RJay ____________________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 94 _80 _52_226_448_69 _92 _92 _253___701 wxallannj _______________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 66 _80_60 _206_ 428 _55 _74 _78 _207 ___635 DonSutherland1 ________ 92 _ 68 _76 _ 236 _ 80 _70 _46 _196 _ 432 _53 _72 _76 _201 ___633 ___ consensus __________88 _ 68 _76 _ 232 _ 88 _58 _38 _184 _ 416 _35 _70 _74 _ 179 __595 yoda ____________________88 _ 68 _78 _ 234 _ 86 _56 _40 _182 _ 416 _37 _70 _72 _179 ___595 RodneyS ________________84 _ 82 _84 _ 250 _ 92 _20 _40 _152 _ 402 _59 _42 _88_ 189 ___591 Tom ____________________86 _ 68 _76 _ 230 _100_58 _36_194_ 424_ 31 _64 _64 _ 159 ___583 BKViking _______________ 82 _ 62 _70 _ 214 _ 98_58 _38 _194_ 408_ 35 _60 _68 _ 163 ___571 so_whats_happening ___86 _ 56 _52 _ 194 _ 94 _52 _44 _190 _384_ 41 _70 _74 _ 185 ___569 Ephesians2 _____________62 _ 96 _80 _ 238 _ 28 _20 _32 _080 _318 _33 _98 _82 _213 ___531 hudsonvalley21 ________ 80 _ 52 _64 _ 196 _ 80 _66 _26 _172_ 368_ 37 _52 _52 _ 141 ___509 Scotty Lightning ________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 88 _60 _32 _180 _ 402 _05 _42 _58 _105 ___507 Roger Smith ____________ 64 _ 88 _76 _ 228 _ 32 _00 _20 _052 _280 _23 _92 _74_ 189 ___469 ___ Normal _____________ 92 _ 84 _90 _ 266 _78 _30 _00 _108 _ 374 _ 00 _22 _58 _080 ___454 wxdude64 ______________ 48 _ 56 _56 _ 160 _ 12 _ 00 _00 _012 _ 172 _05 _38 _100 _ 138___310 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) _ 82 _72 _58 _ 212 _ 40 _56 _86 _182 _ 394_ 41 _40 _48 _ 129 ___ 523 --------------- EXTREME FORECAST REPORT (for regular and new participants, separate logs) NYC _ (-0.8) A win for Roger Smith (second lowest forecast, regular forecasters) and a loss for wxdude64 (lowest forecast), Ephesians2 credited with wins also. ATL, IAH _ Wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts. DEN _ Win for RJay (highest forecast) PHX _ Shared win RJay and Roger Smith, also Ephesians2 credited with a win. SEA _ Any outcome above +1.9 gives wxdude64 a win and Ephesians2 a loss. An outcome closer to +1.7 would give RJay a win and both of the others a loss. DCA, BOS and ORD did not qualify for extreme forecasts. (note of explanation, when new forecasters participate their achievements are ranked separately so that we have a log of results within the group of regular forecasters, and a record of the new person's wins or losses, same applies to best forecasts in the annual update) (forecasts) FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _+2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 --------------- The following will be edited to include NOV scoring and posted into the next post currently announcing the December and snowfall contests. I will keep editing it here until I am ready to move it down to there. === ::: [] <<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Nov 2025 >>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS ___ Consensus ______ 725 _762 _812_ 2299 __718 _772 _736_ 2226 _4525__736_828_896__2460 __6985 Tom __________________751 _778 _852__2381__724 _706 _732__2162 _4543 __793 _818 _828__2439__6982 so_whats_happening _ 759 _784 _764__2307__732 _772 _677__ 2181 _4488 __727 _750 _858__2335___6823 hudsonvalley21 _______683 _744 _828__2255__656 _746 _725 __2127 _4382 __771 _766 _876__2413___6795 RJay _________________ 658 _747 _ 791__2196__754 _814 _746__2314 _4510 __690 _725 _813 __2228___6738 Scotty Lightning ______746 _812 _776__2334__613 _682 _732 __2027 _4361 __682 _832 _836__2350___6711 DonSutherland1 ______ 661 _706 _782__2149__714 _758 _678__ 2150 _4299 __782 _754 _852__2388___6687 wxallannj _____________647 _682 _744__2073__638 _724 _740__2102 _4175 __761 _824 _839 __2424___6599 RodneyS _____________ 724 _720 _812__2256__580 _578 _692__1850 _4106 __704 _728 _982__2414___6520 Roger Smith __________ 582 _704 _716__2002__672 _626 _694__1992 _3994 __563 _774 _813__ 2150___6144 wxdude64 ____________622 _696 _690__2008__456_ 632 _606__1694 _3702 __702 _762 _860__2324___6026 -------------- StormchaserChuck ___585 _624 _662 __1871 __482 _682 _ 587__1751 _ 3622 __667 _698 _687__2052___5674 - - - (10/11) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __ 6241 ___ Normal ____________710 _748 _744 __2202 __556 _490 _421__1467__3669 __700 _650 _814__2164__5833 BKViking (9/11) ______ 506 _543 _607 __1656 __528 _640 _502__1670 _3326 __583 _638 _639__1860 __ 5186 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6387 Yoda _(4/11) ___________236 _262 _282 __ 780 __ 278 _ 258 _280 __816 _1596 __283 _298 _324 __905__2501 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __6878 maxim (2/11) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6111 Ephesians2 _ (2/11) ____ 66 _132 _142 __ 340 ___102 _ 66 _ 120 _ 288 ___628 _ 105 _194 _182 ___481 ____1109 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6083 Persistence ___________496 _586 _704 __1786 ___404 _476 _692 _1572 _3358__548 _600 _744 __1892___5250 __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 2*__ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1___ 0___0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 3^ __ 1 ___ 3 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^__ 2___2 _Mar,Jun so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 2^^ _1 ___ 2 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__2^^__3^^__4__ 1 ___ 2^__ 2^*__2^^__1___ 1 _Nov Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___ 1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) Don Sutherland 1 _______2 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __1^ __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 3^ __ 3 ___ 2 __ 2^ __1^ __ 3 ___3 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____3 _ May,Aug,Oct wxdude64 _____________ 1 __ 3^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________2^__4^^__2^__ 2 ___3 ___3^^__3^^__1___2 ___1^__ 3^^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 2^^__1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___2^*__0___0___0 ___ Normal ______________3 __ 2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ So far, 57 of 99 ... 30 for warmest and 27 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6, Sep 5-1, Oct 2-3, Nov 5-1. (table scoring order is by adjusted totals for ties) Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct_Nov __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 _1-1 __0-0 ___ 12-3 ___11.0 - 3.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0_0-0_2 *-0 __14-2__ 9.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 ___9-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___8-1 ____6.5 - 1.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0_1*-0_3**0 __8-0 ___ 4.5-0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-3 ____ 4.0 - 3.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_2*-0_ 0-0 __6-1 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 _ 2*-0 _1-1 ___6-2 ____4.83-2.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __4-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___2.33-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 0-0_1-1 _ 2-1 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _0-0 ___2-1 ____1.33-1.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0_0-0 _2*-0 __3-0__ 2.0 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1-23) _____+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8 ___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5 ___ (adjusted >>final) 0.4 ^_ -0.8 _-0.5 __ +1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4__ +5.7 _ +3.9 _ +2.1 Above I have posted final anomalies for each location. ^ __ DCA has two missing days and the CF6 shows a departure of 0.0. The two days (12th, 17th) had anomalies of +7 and +5 at IAD, which had a monthly departure of +1.0. As 12 degree days applied to 30 days gives a true anomaly of +0.4, that will be the contest value (I will check later versions and adjust if DCA adds this missing data and revises the 0.0). (previous notes 23rd to 29th) Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included). DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date. (on 29th I posted what look like the finishing anomalies within 0.5 ... may have to adjust DCA as there are two missing days and both were around +5 to +7 at other regional sites ... the impact of colder air has been a little less than projected so most of these anomalies are up slightly ... preliminary scoring about to become final scoring now being adjusted also.

No snow cover below 4500' around here, just a cold drizzly rain, low overcast becoming fog above my elevation (which is 3500'). A thin snow cover in the alpine possibly 3-5" tops.

I was reading that the wind was about to reverse over the North Pole -- but if you think about it, the wind at the North Pole has to be either calm or southerly.

The anomalies to mid-month are roughly near normal in the east to +5 F in parts of the west. A somewhat colder interval lies ahead for most regions, with variations the final anomalies look likely to be near normal east to +3 west. I will track this more precisely in about a week and post some preliminary scoring.