Roger Smith

Visible satellite showing 150 mile extension of anvil top blowoff to east of developing supercells. 40wnw BWG KY 21z would be my chase base.

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>> (probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case) Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025 ... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ... FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1 wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6 Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3 BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0 RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3 ___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0 RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0 Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0 wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0 so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0 ___________________________ Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0 ____________________ To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1 (contest incl all seasonal snow) __Scoring update (in order)__ _ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _ Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL _01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5 _02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1 (02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3 _03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6 _04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3 _05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3 (5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1 _06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1 (6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6 _07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5 _08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4 _09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6 _10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5 _11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4 (will post final comments at end of May)

It's that time again ... enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide. Include any named storms already in the books by 06z June 5th in your total (as of now, count is 0/0/0). 1991-2020 average values 14/7/3 ... 2025 seasonal forecasts from various experts average 17/9/4 (so far). I will include a few of these as of June 1st as non-entries for ranking against our forecasts (without changing our contest ranks). I will probably extend the entry deadline based on the situation as of 06z June 2nd. You can edit or revise any entries up to final deadline, no need to bring attention to edits as I won't be trying to create a table of entries until deadline is passed. Boards.ie weather forum and Net-weather (UK) will be invited to participate. Ranks will be provided (a) over all entries and (b) within forums, or fora if anyone here is a Latin purist. 2024 winner was Kirkcaldy Weather of Net-weather. Good luck !

Table of Forecasts for May 2025 FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA wxallannj__________________________+2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+1.3 _+1.2 __+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.3 BKViking ___________(-2%)_________+2.3 _+2.3 _+2.1 __ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.3 _+1.3 RJay ________________(-2%)________ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 __ 0.0 _+1.5 wxdude64 ________________________ +1.8 _+1.9 _+1.7 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.4 DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.7 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.3 _+0.8 _+0.9 __+0.2 _-0.8 _+0.2 Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ Consensus ___________________+1.5 _+1.6_+1.7 __+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.8 __ +2.9 _+0.4 _-0.6 __+1.1 _ +0.1 _+1.0 so_whats_happening ______________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __+1.9 _+0.5 _-0.2 __+1.5 _+0.3 _+0.5 Roger Smith _______________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.5 __+1.2 _+0.7 _+0.5 __+2.7 _+1.0 _+1.5 RodneyS __________________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.4 __ -1.8 _ +0.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _-0.2 _-0.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________________+0.8 _+0.6 _+0.3 __ +1.4 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+1.8 _+2.1 _-0.2 Tom _______________________________ +0.6 _+0.8 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.4 _+0.9 __+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.7 ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ______ Persistence (Apr 2025) _____________+3.5 _+1.6 _+2.2 __+1.1 _+4.5 _+4.6 __+1.7 _+1.4 _+0.8 ================== Normal is lower than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, DEN

I think with that reservoir capacity question, 100% is an optimal design level, 110% is probably a few feet above 100% and barely noticeable to a casual observer, but an overflow situation is likely to be 135% or even 150% of capacity, there's a margin for surplus capacity and managers will tolerate it especially if they foresee lower levels in the near future. Depends on local terrain and size of dam holding the reservoir in place.

+1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.5

My usual end of month appearance to remind contest entrants (main forum) of approaching deadline for MAY forecasts. On subject of those power outages, I noted that strong winds were blowing in one region of southern Spain and light winds prevailed elsewhere, at time of problems, and during very warm and sunny conditions generally -- could be an imbalance in wind energy contributions to grid causing oscillations.

^^ above find scoring for April (to be adjusted at end of April) ... ... below, post May forecasts ...

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 239 _286 _272 __797__280 _300 _230_810 _1607 _ 207 _244 _280__731 ___2338 hudsonvalley21 _______ 223 _288 _300 __ 811 __226 _300 _241 __769__1578 __234 _222 _270__726 ___2304 so_whats_happening __269 _306 _236 __ 811 __272 _306 _231 __809 _ 1620 __196 _180 _300__ 676 ___2296 Tom ___________________241 _280 _276 __ 797 __ 288 _230 _248 __766 _ 1563 __262 _236 _218__ 716 ___2279 RJay __________________ 249 _340 _316 __905 __ 306 _306 _ 221 __ 833 _1738 __ 163 _172 _204__ 539 ___2277 BKViking ______________ 181 _258 _230 __ 669 __292 _290 _225 __807 _ 1476 __253 _224 _274__ 751 ___2227 wxallannj ______________217 _258 _264 __ 739 __308 _226 _212 __746 _1485 __ 232 _234 _259__ 725 ___2210 Scotty Lightning _______264 _270 _216 __ 750 __213 _202 _ 220 __ 635 _ 1385 __167 _276 _270__ 713 ___2098 DonSutherland1 _______ 171 _234 _236 __ 641 __240 _262 _198 __ 700 _ 1341 __ 213 _230 _296__ 739 ___2080 StormchaserChuck ___ 241 _256 _236 __ 733 __200 _290 _ 175 __ 665 _ 1398 __229 _208 _223__660___2058 wxdude64 _____________184 _226 _212 __ 622 __ 224_ 254 _196 __ 686 _ 1296 __235 _244 _260__739___2035 RodneyS ______________ 212 _218 _234 __ 664 __ 172 _202 _184 __ 558 _ 1222 __145 _248 _338__ 731 ___ 1953 Roger Smith ___________204 _248 _228 __680 __ 248 _242 _212 __702 _ 1382 __ 106 _168 _271__ 545 ____1927 ___ Normal _____________144 _220 _232 __ 596 __ 194 _082 _085 ___361 __ 957 __190 _242 _270__ 702 ___1659 maxim (2/4) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222 Persistence ______________90 _186 _250 __ 526 ___112 _180 _154 __ 446 _ 972 __ 62 _ 98 _ 210 __ 370 ____1342 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS ___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 1* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning ________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 StormchaserChuck ______1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 1 _____0 Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 21 of 36 ... 13 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 __ 4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ____2.5 - 0.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0 _2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 =========================================================

Eastern states long overdue for a very hot summer and nobody would be surprised if it came in 2025.

The maps alone would be sketchy at best, but we also have some other clues from obs elsewhere, I would imagine the cold NW flow was good for a few snow showers and then the organized event by Apr 17-18 was likely a cold rain in present NYC metro and wet snow in n NJ and lower elevations se NY.

NOAA now has maps going back to 1836. They are available on the weather forum wetterzentrale.de and here's a link to Apr 16, 1849 at 12z. (click on archives at wetterzentrale's home page). Toronto wx data (starts 1840) indicates very cold air mass, 29/16 and 1.5" snow on Apr 15, 30/20 dry on Apr 16. Caswell in Providence RI recorded 24F as low for Apr 16 and near 37F for a max, no precip noted and says "clothes on line froze in a strong NW wind." Low DonS references gave 1.05" rain there Apr 17-18, 40s F. http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1849&maand=04&dag=16&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

I found a wx map for Apr 16 1849, looks like NYC may have seen some snow or sleet showers in a very cool NW flow, but the s.e. coastal snow was associated with a low off the coast that did not move n.e., it weakened and the cold n.w. flow continued over NYC region for two days. Probably 4/16/1849 was close to 39/29 .05" prec 0.1" snow. NW 20-35.

_ Final scoring for April 2025 _ ... ATL scores for ATL are based on max-60 rule modified to preserve differentials. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTALS StormchaserChuck _____________ 64 _ 96 _ 88 __ 248 __ 98 _ 60 _ 42 __200 _ 448 __92 _ 74 _ 96 __262 ____ 710 RJay ____________________________ 50 _ 88 _ 76 __ 214 __ 98 _ 58 _ 60 __ 216 _ 430 __ 94 _ 98 _ 76 __ 268 ____ 698 hudsonvalley21 _________________ 54 _ 98 _ 86 __ 238 __ 82 _ 56 _ 46 __ 184 _ 422 __ 84 _ 92 _ 86 __ 262 ____ 684 Tom _____________________________52 _ 94 _ 82 __ 228 __92 _ 40 _ 36 __ 168 _ 396 ___84 _ 96 _ 98 __ 278 ____ 674 Scotty Lightning ________________ 60 _ 88 _ 76 __ 224 __ 88 _ 48 _ 40 __ 176 _ 400 __ 76 _ 98 _ 94 __ 268 ____ 668 so_whats_happening ___________ 54 _ 90 _ 72 __ 216 __ 96 _ 40 _ 34 __ 170 _ 386 __ 82 _ 86 _ 92 __ 260 ____ 646 ___ Consensus _________________38 _ 76 _ 70 __ 184 __ 76 _ 46 _ 38 __ 160 _ 344 __ 84 _ 94 _ 94 __ 272 ____ 616 DonSutherland1 _________________ 26 _ 64 _ 62 __ 152 __ 70 _ 44 _ 36 __ 150 __ 302 __ 80 _ 92 _ 92 __264 ____ 566 BKViking ________________________ 14 _ 64 _ 48 __ 126 __ 68 _ 22 _ 38 __ 128 __ 254 __ 90 _ 98 _ 94 __282 ____ 536 Roger Smith _____________________ 24 _ 58 _ 42 __ 124 __ 68 _ 58 _ 60 __ 186 _ 310 __ 46 _ 74 _ 84 __ 204 ____ 516 wxdude64 _______________________04 _ 32 _ 24 __ 060 __ 64 _ 50 _ 32 __ 146 _ 206 __100 _90 _ 92 __ 282 ____ 488 ___ Normal _______________________30 _ 68 _ 56 __ 154 __ 78 _ 18 _ 10 __ 106 __ 260 __ 66 _ 72 _ 84 __ 222 ____ 482 wxallannj_________________________20 _ 54 _ 46 __ 120 __ 70 _ 28 _ 20 __ 118 __ 238 __ 70 _ 86 _ 80 __ 236 ____474 RodneyS ________________________ 24 _ 52 _ 54 __ 130 __ 30 _ 40 _ 22 __ 092 __222 __ 40 _ 60 _100 __200 ____422 ______ Persistence (Mar 2025) __________36 _ 50 _ 64 __ 150 __ 14 _ 90 _ 98 __ 202 _ 352 __ 50 _ 98 _ 84 __ 232 ____ 584 =================== Extreme forecast report DCA, ORD, BOS, ATL, IAH, are wins for highest forecasts, based on preliminary estimates ... StormchaserChuck would take DCA, NYC, ORD (tied with RJay) and ATL for 3.5 net. RJay (net 1.0) and Roger Smith (net 0.5) share IAH. NYC _ at +1.6, hudsonvalley21 takes a win and StormchaserChuck a loss. Persistence does not participate but would have won ATL and IAH by a small margin.

Anomalies to mid-April and projections ... __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom Apr 1-15) _____+1.1 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.6 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 __ +1.2 _ +3.3 _ +1.0 ___ (anom Apr 1-25) ____ +3.3 __+1.0 _+1.3 ___+0.8 _ +4.2 _+4.4 __+1.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 ___ (p anom Apr 1-30) __+3.5 __+1.5 __+1.5 ___+1.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __+1.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 ___ final anomalies ______+3.5 __+1.6__+2.2 ___+1.1 _ +4.5 _ +4.6 __+1.7 _ +1.4 _ +0.8