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wxsniss

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Everything posted by wxsniss

  1. wxsniss
    Thru hr 30, H7 low definitely ticked northeast
  2. wxsniss
    Yeah I wouldn't take verbatim just yet, but it is very consistent with NAM which has been surprisingly steady for 6+ cycles now, and other guidance has ticked colder for eastern SNE...
  3. wxsniss
    Between work, baby, GME, haven’t posted as much as I’d like... This is looking great for SNE:
  4. wxsniss
    HREF supports NAM and HRRR: Thru Tues 0z only:
  5. wxsniss
    From 12z Initial thump will deliver
  6. wxsniss
    NAM is like [emoji184]🤲[emoji184]🤲[emoji184] Surprisingly may be the most steady guidance since Saturday Add CF enhancement to this:
  7. wxsniss
    0z NAM 10:1
  8. wxsniss
    Hour 54... 6z 2/2... huge hit on eastern SNE... actually a tick colder than 18z Is it fair to say that strangely enough, NAM has been one of the more consistent models today?
  9. wxsniss
    From Washington Post / Boston.com today... Not agreeing or disagreeing, and I know previously discussed here extensively... Simplistic explanation of recent SSW event, split PV, negative AO / NAO, possible implications for us: https://www.boston.com/uncategorized/weather/2021/01/05/the-polar-vortex-is-splitting-in-two-which-may-lead-to-weeks-of-wild-winter-weather
  10. wxsniss
    Cool to see the simultaneous OES echoes and storm echoes moving in opposite directions
  11. wxsniss
    34F, decent wet flakes on this side of the CF. Actually quickly whitening cars under these 30 dBZs! To quote Jerry, "this is what it's come to?"
  12. wxsniss
    Disparate pockets of moisture?
  13. wxsniss
    It was always a precarious setup, but wow what a poor showing for Euro within 24 hours of start... Maybe you can fudge the advisory level solutions in SNE, but look how drastically it changed in Maine.
  14. wxsniss
    I don't mind the map, as much as the fact that it somehow represents the primary forecast (vs. NWS) to the entire Boston.com audience, and also that he hates snow. I love it when he busts too low.
  15. wxsniss
    Agree, same impression off 12z Euro This 18z was a big run... Euro has been on its own this afternoon
  16. wxsniss
    Not so great on this particular run and disappoints the ME crowd, but the capture is probably still too sensitive and distant to pin down now
  17. wxsniss
    Yeah great to see 18z Euro double down on its 12z run... Euro is kind of on its own here with the 3-6/4-8 amounts into eastern MA, but I weigh it more than the rest.
  18. wxsniss
    Looking at all the 12z/18z guidance so far... Only the 12z Euro (and 18z HRRR, well out of range) and EPS support the higher 3-6/4-8 amounts in eastern SNE... if it were any other model going against the consensus, we'd toss it. Fair to weigh it more heavily at the moment, but it will need to double down at 18z / 0z. Otherwise the Box map is looking about right.
  19. wxsniss
    Unfortunately just 1 run of the Euro... great trend, but guidance is still all over to be completely certain with this For eastern SNE, the crappy air mass also makes me hesitant of widespread 3-6/4-8" until we're more confident of the better dynamics
  20. wxsniss
    For SNE, pretty sizable discontinuity on 12z Euro compared to 0z / yesterday's 12z... This 12z run finally has a more expected distribution of dynamics and QPF you'd expect with a SLP tracking over the benchmark. By 18z Mon, with an H5 low now closing completely off the Cape compared to over SNE in prior runs, might expect even more further NW of that into SNE and eventually eastern NH / eastern ME.
  21. wxsniss
    And also how difficult it is to prognosticate based on upstream features... Usually we can make predictions "this run will be better/worse based on x"... I haven't followed as closely, but this event is so dependent on tiny nuances of position and timing of a capture, and it's more difficult to pick up trends and key determinants. You could see 0z Nam would be further southeast with best baroclinicity farther out, but it still captures and loops back to hit ME.
  22. wxsniss
    Merry Christmas and happy holidays all! Good riddance to 2020, and here's to having a place where, year after year, ratters or epicosity, we can escape in love of weather.
  23. wxsniss
    I pulled up soundings for that exact location and model... DGZ = 16091 - 2415 = 13676 feet !!! Someone at Okemo could sneeze up and it would snow. But still puzzled by soundings at Binghamton (I posted above)... DGZ throughout the event on multiple models was only ~ 3000 feet... not particularly deep. Either model soundings were not accurate (e.g., H85-H7 temps were much colder than progged), or combination of extreme lift + great ratios was enough.
  24. wxsniss
    0z Euro Thurs (event already underway) had a decent Kuchera map... QPF in the fronto band ranged from 1-1.7, so with ratios up to 20:1, you might see how you could get to 40": (note... no Euro run before this had anything close to reality... models massively missed a historic weather event for PA-NY-VT-NH):
  25. wxsniss
    Yeah it's a puzzle... looking back at soundings from Thurs 0z 3k NAM / 12k NAM (can't see HRRR that far back): 6z Thursday night, under the heaviest band near Binghamton... insane lift, but not an especially deep DGZ:
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