wxsniss

...Suffolk County... 1 WNW Logan AP 16.7 in 1200 AM 01/26 Official NWS Obs 1 S Boston 15.0 in 0942 PM 01/25 Public 1 NNE Dorchester 14.1 in 1000 PM 01/25 Trained Spotter Logan AP 10.5 in 0700 PM 01/25 Official NWS Obs

I’m curious how the snowgrowth will be tomorrow… best lift looks lower than today, like 925-850 or 700 Interesting with all the discussion of 12-15:1 SLRs and good crosshair progged the initial few hours, the snowgrowth struggled…

So has the stupid iPhone weather app... has been saying Sleet here all afternoon

How's your snowgrowth been? Been a struggle so far here despite decent returns overhead

Matches well with velocity scans

Interesting in Brookline just still mostly arctic sand @weathafella @Henry's Weather and others in Boston metro curious what your snowgrowth has been

Yeah northeast MA / north shore area looks excellent for both portions of storm 6z NAM thermals about stable and continues the Monday top off thru midnight, might not even be a hiatus Monday morning

6z HRRR stable/ticked up:

...or even the expected NWS snowfall map:

The Star Market on Commonwealth near BU. For some reason, there's a very strong correlation between impending screaming-media-hyped snowstorm and sold out bananas:

Pats in playoffs + impending major snowstorm… I'll echo Jerry's and other's sentiments... there's a palpable "night before" electricity we haven't felt for years. And having confidence only accelerate into the event is pretty amazing. Did grocery shopping tonight... the empty store shelves are honestly kind of silly, but maybe people are anticipating supply chain disruptions down south? In any case, loading groceries to the car and feeling the unabashed piercing cold on the eve of a huge snowstorm... New England winter is back. Our hobby, with all its rewards, is back. I know Sunday afternoon I'll be bouncing back and forth like a kid who never outgrew the thrill, relishing in the 2 hobbies. For those of us who have been yearning for something good in either realm for the past 4 years... finally, it's here.

Great map Ray. Best I've seen including the TV forecasts. I also think current NWS will be increased if 12z trends from today stand. I'm thinking areas of north shore have a shot at 18-24 especially if the east/northeast fetch Monday materializes

18z NAM with the ivt into Monday night!!

Lol "the elders" For me it's more just tracking fatigue... this has been locked in for at least 2 days now, and we're still over a day away. Not much fluctuation from run to run courtesy of broad overrunning and deep cold. Not the tense tracking we typically have with coastals. Obviously the event itself will be a thrill. We've been desperate for a warning event for years.

His first call map... can't find it now it was several pages back, but it was nuanced and realistic

Was away all evening... 5 yo's first school dance(!) and other stuff What an amazing weekend ahead for SNE. Feeling very confident with widespread 12-20" just about all of SNE. 0z suite was excellent. @40/70 Benchmark's map was best I've seen. I share some of the tracking fatigue... the broad strokes have been locked in for days. Still some suspense on meso features (how high SLRs, OE enhancement, how much 925-850 easterly fetch can we sustain Monday to top off eastern SNE, especially north and south shore areas) that we'll need to get 20"+ totals. Check this out... will be puking snow Sunday evening:

Quickly catching up, haven't been able to post today... Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM… 18z ICON, RGEM, and GFS held relatively steady in terms of thermals, and Jan 23 19z NBM so far has not flinched though I’m not sure if these models make it in the blend (I do not take these NBM forecasts literally): So we watch for elevated warming nipping at south coast and beyond but remain skeptical unless further support. At worst, looks like heavy thump followed by light sleet / dryslot after bulk of accumulation. More definite takeaway from 12z-18z suite today is less promising coastal cyclogenesis CCB potential for Monday. By 18z Monday, flow at 925-850 becomes more northerly and dries out (corresponding to closing lows further northeast) on all guidance, whereas in prior runs (again, 0z ICON from 1/22 being the best depiction with easterly fetch beyond 18z Monday (with closed 925-850 low south of LI). It's 60+ hrs out so arguably that’s still in play, but it’s looking less likely.

Just found you can actually see a mean SLR... begins 18:1 Sunday afternoon, drops to 13:1 overnight Monday across SNE... nothing too crazy In any case, I agree I don't see any guidance supporting widespread 20"+ amounts

Curious what goes into this blend... it keeps revving up. Here's the 1z Jan 23 NBM output:

I haven't had 6" in 4 years... I'd be thrilled with 12-18" On the other hand, ask every single member of this board wearing a lie detector test... the answer might be "when is any amount of snow enough?"

I think the isoentropic lift portion is slightly better (despite less cyclogen-CCB Monday) hence the relatively stable / slightly increased in CNE QPF in this run But the coastal portion of the storm... 0z last night has the best depiction of coastal portion I could find, mini CCB into Tuesday 6z... that portion of the storm I haven't seen recovered yet, but there are varying hints of it across the models. Need the energy to round trough and interact sooner

ICON has not recovered it's best look for Monday coastal development from 24 hours ago (0z Jan 22). Trough tilt was too progressive this run

ICON spread goods a tick more north in CNE 1.2+ most of SNE, 1.3-1.6 eastern areas Kuchera widespread 14-20

ICON!

Great stuff. Your posts read like a thriller that educates. What I'm looking for in next 72 hours to optimize that handoff from isoentropic to cyclogenic-CCB mechanisms: beyond just looking for an 850/925 low closing as far southwest as we can get it and maintaining easterly inflow lasting to 0z-6z Tuesday, I'm thinking earlier arrival of the energy rounding the trough and better tilt of the trough will help. At the moment, 0z ICON last night was the best depiction of getting this done I could find, with widespread 20"+ possible in eastern SNE. It's backed off a bit since but there are still hints on all guidance. Fwiw, 18z NAM at 6z Monday looks alot like 0z ICON... ie., potential to get very interesting Monday.