Jonathan
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Everything posted by Jonathan
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It was 4-5 degrees warmer hours 132-144 for my area and lots of others. That stinks.
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I just thought overall it was a little more amped and warmer than we'd like to see. It definitely doesn't slide west to east, noticeable north jump this go round. Onto the ensembles...
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I guess overall, this is probably more realistic. Fantasy playtime is over outside of the mountains.
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Verbatim with Kuchera ratio still 12"+ in the mountains, 20"+ near Roanoke VA, only 6-8" in the foothills, 2-6" Piedmont, 0-1" for Raleigh. EDIT: an additional 1-3" on the back side for the Piedmont, gets Raleigh to 2-5"
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*turns on lights, starts coffee maker* Ah, this morning should be a doozy! Gonna be DEFCON 1 in the SE forum in a few hours!
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At that particular hour, sure. I'm on wxbell and the low tracks from SC off the VA coast...yuck
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The low is just north of Hatteras at 132...was near Wilmington on the 12z. Even Virginia rains. That high pressure gets broken down like a double barreled shotgun.
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Yikes...the euro is WAY north...HUNDREDS OF MILES north...ouch
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I see Brandon @HKY_WX lurking. Interested in your current thoughts sir.
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It's ok, it's just the crazy 6z...
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The euro is an entire day slower than the GFS/FV3. That's a pretty striking difference in the model suites and guessing that's why the EURO is warmer, even though it improved a tick this morning.
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HP 1mb weaker on GFS...THAT'S been a trend we don't want to see.
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So when do we start looking for trends in the NAM past 60hr? Never? lol
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Heck, at this point, I'm beginning to worry about mixing down this way. Really need that FV3 to show us why it's replacing the GFS with this one.
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Upper air pattern way more important that what the models paint at the surface. If we're similar at 500mb maybe stray away from the cliff for now.
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0z runs are gonna be a BIG YIKES across the board. Confetti rains in the MA forum...
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Here we go... everything north so far. After a day of miller A's, miller B is back on the table.
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And I'll take your north shift and raise you one more. Just don't tell @Buddy1987 or @Disc !
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Total whiff for everyone north of Raleigh and GSO. Congrats, guys! You finally get your big one! Long overdue for so many. Glad to see you boys score!
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I wouldn't be concerned either if I were in Salem! I worded that wrong. I guess what I was trying to say was instead of a hostile WEATHER PATTERN, it's a hostile timeframe on the models. It's almost time for them to drop it completely, cause mass panic and pick it back up in 24 hours.
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Damned Vikings! As Jeremy mentioned folks, we've lost several storms in the 5-7 day range that never came back. Even me in SW VA. We have a LONG way to go in a fairly hostile pattern.
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That's not very nice, grit! What comes will come, and we will take it. I will chase if need be.
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Gonna go ahead and get the heat running here in the sanitarium. Gonna be a packed house soon!
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Trivial at this point grit, but I noticed the Euro Ensembles had much less snow tonight at 0z than at 12z. (The 6"+zone really shrunk a lot) Do you think this is the result of more mixing being shown, lighter precip or a weaker system altogether?
