jaxjagman

Should be worth a thread Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A compact and intense upper low over the southern Plains will eject eastward to the Ozark Plateau/lower MS Valley on Wednesday. A surface low centered over northeast OK will develop east/northeast in tandem with the upper system. At the beginning of the period, a cold front will extend southward from the low across eastern OK into eastern TX before arcing southwest into south TX. A warm front draped northwest to southeast from near the MO/AR border into northern AL will gradually lift northward through the period. There is some uncertainty in how far north this boundary will lift across northern GA/eastern TN given strong cold air damming across the Carolinas until very late in the period. The cold front should push eastward to Middle TN/central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Across the broad warm sector, dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s are expected beneath steepening lapse rates and intense vertical shear, resulting in an environment capable of supporting a widespread severe weather outbreak. ...Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... Convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning near the surface low, southward along the cold front, and eastward along the northward retreating warm front from central AR into northern MS/AL. Any convection north of the warm front will be elevated and pose a threat mainly for large hail. However, shear profiles will improve through the morning and surface-based storms near the triple point and along the warm front are possible and will increase the risk for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Further south along the cold front across eastern OK into eastern TX, convection will move into an increasing unstable and moist environment. A line of supercells and line segments is expected to develop as convection moves into AR and approaches the Sabine Valley. All severe hazards are expected with this activity from Wednesday morning into the afternoon. ...Lower MS Valley into AL/GA... Multiple rounds of intense, severe convection will be possible, mainly across MS/AL on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Convection will intensify along the eastward progressing cold front across central and eastern AR/LA during the late morning/afternoon as it encounters effective shear greater than 60 kt, MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Fast storm motion, with 925-700 mb flow greater than 40 kt will support widespread damaging gusts with some gusts greater than 65 kt expected. Large hail (some greater than 2 inch in diameter, especially from the AR/MO border into northern LA, southwest TN and northern/central MS) is also expected with this activity. Further east across northeast LA into MS and AL a more concerning scenario appears possible. Most forecast guidance agrees that a round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected. This activity is expected to develop in weaker ascent, driven by heating and low level warm advection. Strong 0-3 km shear near 30-40 kt will already be in place with enlarged low level hodographs evident. Given weaker forcing, this activity will have an opportunity to remain more discrete and any cell will quickly become a supercell capable of producing strong tornadoes. As a 40-50 kt low level jet increases around 00-03z, intense supercells are expected to advance eastward along with the cold front across MS and into AL overnight. This will bring a second round of significant severe storms capable of intense tornadoes, large hail and intense damaging winds across much of MS/AL. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z tonight. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2021 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

correct,i was looking at 1999,thanks

As expected with the passing EKW,1+2 is warming up again.Subsurface has warmed some by the looks west of the IDL,didnt post the last update but it seems they now do adjustments every 3 or 4 days without doing the time stamp

Interestingly, no (E)F5 tornadoes were recorded in phases 3, 4, or 5 during the study period. Cross-phase variability explained by the GWO is substantial, and has not been demonstrated to this magnitude by other known teleconnection indices [e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)]. A robust example is shown when analyzing (E)F1+ tornadoes during strong GWO events. During GWO phases 1 and 2, statistically significant positive tornado count and average tornado count per day anomalies are found. In contrast, phases 4 and 5 revealed negative counts and negative tornado count per day anomalies at the 95% confidence level (Fig. 2). Odd how there has never been a violent EF5 with this study,while in 3,4 and 5.The Wayne and Lawrence County EF5 happened in a LaNina year and the GWO was in phase 6

Right,i just posted this to show the similarity to where the GWO is in phase 2 from this paper,it does not mean we can't get severe weather in Tn

Meant the put the link up,here it is https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml

GWO is in phase two today

Models keep showing a trough going through East Asia even into Korea next weekend,by far the best trough through that region it seems like in a couple months.PNA might be tilted more + but there also seems to be another EKW today getting into region 3 and a KW into NA into week 3 of March,seemingly around the 28th of March give or take might be our next shot of severe storms after this one upcoming right now

I'd be surprised if you dont see a slight risk upcoming,even with some timing differences the mid week system

Last four runs of the GFS,looks better today but still beyond it's belief time frame

Definite not seeing nothing consistent with the models

CFS is showing another EKW the next couple days getting into 1+2,the last one that went through a few days ago has warmed this region up pretty good recently.

Few more days before the upgrade to V16,unless something changes https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn_21-20_gfsv16.0_aaa_update.pdf

So what happens during a power outage?

Either CPC just forgot to change the date or a adjustment was made to the last update

I was playing with my new toy above. CFS looks active in the Pacific upcoming.Sure this will change some but the models will probably struggle with the upcoming pattern.GFS is already trying to hint at bulding another Sub-Tropical ridge into the GOM.But this time frame should be our best shot upcoming at some possible severe weather.

1.mp4

SPC today almost shows a basin wide moderate NINA,but the SOI is acting like this is a more ELNino the last few days,been awhile since it went negative,the SOI

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20210228 Fatality in Ga

Talk about a lucky young man https://wreg.com/news/child-shocked-by-power-line-in-nashville-while-playing-barefoot-in-rain/

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far south-central Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday evening from 810 PM until 1100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Cluster of strong to severe storms may produce damaging winds and a brief tornado before it weakens later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Crossville TN to 20 miles northeast of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Might have been a tornado,seeing reports of power poles snapped in half

Not sure,i just seen that tea cup hail

How bizarre,it was around this time last year when tonadoes struck