jaxjagman

The 6Z Euro is further west, it now tightens it up more into the MO/V,it was showing the LLJ 55-65 KTS in the Valley now it's more 60-70 kts

Just some guidance from the map i ran off of.I would not trust it this far out tho.It basically just shows where a possibility of strong tornadoes could be.

National Weather Service Memphis TN 251 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .DISCUSSION... Beautiful conditions are occurring across the Mid-South this afternoon as upper ridging is occurring aloft. Temperatures have climbed into the mid 60s. Tranquil weather will come to an end as a large scale upper trough will set up over the Rockies on Monday and will remain in place through next week. As a result, a series of upper level low pressure systems move within the flow. The first will begin to dig into the Texas Panhandle on Monday. Clouds will begin developing across portions of the Mid-South ahead of the system late tonight into Monday morning. A few warm air advection showers will also be possible, but at this time not enough to mention 20 POPS. The upper level low will then lift northeastward into Northwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. The SFC low will be nearly stacked with the upper low tracking in a similar path. The system will also become occluded as it lifts northeastward pinching off instability limiting severe weather potential. That being said, there could still be some gusty winds from a decaying line of convection that moves into Eastern Arkansas late Monday Night into early Tuesday morning. The associated cold front will never clear the Mid-South and will become stalled over the area Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the front through Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday Night through Thursday evening as the next upper level low pressure system dives into the Southern Plains. The low will open up to a potent upper trof becoming negatively tilted as it lifts into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The latest GFS has come more in line with ECMWF and Canadian with the track of the SFC low in the vicinity of the Mississippi Delta. However, differences remain with timing of the system. A warm and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the system. Looking at the SLU CIPS Analog data, the number one analog shows this could be a potentially dangerous severe weather day across the portions of the Mid-South if the system evolves as models indicate. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be possible from storms that develop out ahead of the system. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Stay tuned. The final system will move out of the Rockies next weekend bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid- South. Temperatures will remain mild through the period. KRM

The Euro wants to bomb the system out once it reaches into the O/V.This would start to strenghten the LLJ to around55-65 kts once it starts to get into the MO/V in Tn,it even shows the LLJ getting to around 70 kts into Ky afterwards

Cips shows this as the top analog today ( "ducking from Jeff :)"

It's actually been a quiet time in Tn,we have only had one tornado so far this year

Subsurface is slightly warmer in the east, and also cooler east of the IDL.Surface has been cooling the last few days other than 4.CFS shows a KW coming through next week.Few days ago the CFS showed a stronger EKW,but not the past couple days.

https://whnt.com/weather/nws-huntsville-determines-a-second-ef-1-tornado-touched-down-in-cullman-county-wednesday-night/?fbclid=IwAR3JgsdxaIe-oV7F14ptxtFoRaDz3Bd4ua3jy-snFuZtMgG_wpivQ-e32WQ

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2021/03/17/march-17-18-2021-tornado-outbreak/

Sure looks like a active period is coming up.CFS shows a KW coming into play into wk3 and this Sunday a decent trough is going to go through East Asia.Models will more than likely struggle once again showing all kinds of solutions. Just a note and certainly no forecast but the day before the storms hit into dixie alley CIPS showed the best analog as 4-15-11 and then 12 days later was the super outbreak,during that time frame

Can't wait,it already seems to be much better https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-announce-major-upgrades-to-us-weather-model-march-22

Could be twins, the cells NE of Billingsley in Al

NE is Billingsley

grlevel2,yes you can get it but it is expensive

seems to be weakening some now

Yeah seems to be stronger

That is a huge area for a PDS URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Alabama Central to eastern Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are expected to develop this afternoon capable of producing strong to intense tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northwest of Gadsden AL to 35 miles southeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Try this

Generally yes,until midnight CST,then the next day takes over

National Weather Service Birmingham AL 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Through Wednesday morning. A wedge front is causing some chilly temperatures across the northeast counties this afternoon, with a milder and more humid air mass southwest of it. An effective warm front/low-level confluence axis across our southern counties is causing some training showers and storms there, aided by ripples in the southwest flow aloft. This activity will continue to cause locally heavy rainfall amounts across the south. Low streamflow values will mitigate the flooding threat somewhat, but some isolated flash flooding will be possible mainly in urban areas or if additional heavy rainfall moves into areas of our southwest counties that have already received 3 to 4 inches of rainfall. Effective shear values around 50 kts have resulted in a few rotating storms across our south this afternoon which could produce localized hail or damaging winds. Low-level SRH is marginal until you get further north to the wedge front, so while the threat for a brief tornado is non-zero, it is low. Further north, clouds are limiting instability. Severe potential further to the north seems fairly low, but will leave it in for the afternoon for now with some clearing occurring in our northwest counties. May get a lull in activity tonight with the loss in daytime heating before activity increases after midnight as the effective warm front lifts northward and another weak shortwave moves through. Most of the activity will be along and north of the warm front, with elevated instability and shear supportive of some hail and gusty winds. But if a storm is able to be rooted near the surface along the warm front, there will be a low but non-zero threat of an isolated tornado across the north early Wednesday morning. With a more significant threat later in the day on Wednesday, won`t be including this on our messaging at this time but will continue to monitor. 32/Davis .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ **Significant severe weather outbreak expected Wednesday and Wednesday night** Overall little change to the forecast thinking, with a relatively long duration and significant severe threat for all modes of severe weather. A potent and compact low-amplitude trough will move from the Southern Plains on Wednesday to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night, preceded by a 60-80kt mid-level speed max and a 40-50kt LLJ. A 998mb surface low will track from Oklahoma to Illinois with a broad warm sector with mid to upper 60s dew points in advance of a cold front. Shortwave ridging/anti-cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to develop Wednesday morning which should allow the early morning showers/storms to move out of the area. This will allow for heating and ample destabilization. CAPE values will increase to 2000 to 3000 J/kg across much of the area by afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the air mass across the warm front will be uncapped across the warm sector by afternoon, and CAMs are in fairly good agreement on scattered to perhaps numerous supercells developing in the 1 to 4 PM timeframe. Low- level SRH is less than 200 m2/s2 initially during the afternoon, so large, potentially significant hail may be the main threat initially with 50 to 60kt of 0-6km shear aiding updraft rotation, but a couple isolated tornadoes will still be possible. For simplicity, will start the threat time at 2 PM everywhere to account for this activity. After 4 PM, the 850mb jet and associated SRH begins to really ramp up across West Alabama, and across the rest of the area by 6 to 7 PM. This is when concern for strong, potentially long track tornadoes will begin to ramp up with any semi-discrete supercells still present. We will also be monitoring mesoscale trends closely for the possibility of a violent tornado. It`s hard to find too many limiting factors for this event, but if I had to mention one it might be if too many storms get going too early before the low-level shear increases. However with the strong low-level jet and activity remaining cellular I don`t see this being much of a limiting factor. Will also need to monitor the northward movement of the wedge front. It could limit the afternoon threat across some of our far northeast counties, but also serve as an additional source of helicity for storms near the warm side of it. I do expect the wedge front to exit the area prior to the overnight activity. During the late evening and overnight hours, another strong line of storms will move in from the west ahead of the cold front. Shear vector orientation has a component normal to the line and the magnitude is strong as well. This will be favorable for embedded supercells in the line or a semi-broken line of supercells, therefore this activity will also be a concern for strong to intense long-track tornadoes, not just weak QLCS spin- ups. Additionally, any bowing segments will have a significant wind threat as well. Outside of storms, gradient winds near 35 mph will be possible, and will monitor for the possible need for a wind advisory. Activity will remain fairly progressive and antecedent conditions still fairly dry, limiting the overall flooding threat, but some minor flooding in poor drainage areas is possible, and some rivers are forecast to be near or above flood stage. The rest of the previous long term discussion remains valid. 32/Davis Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0311 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Thursday through Sunday. Storms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across east Alabama, but should be in a weakening trend. Should see some clearing skies during the day Thursday as drier low level air moves in behind exiting cold front. However, strong cold air advection will also bring low clouds back into the area Thursday afternoon, starting in the west and spreading eastward. A much colder air mass Thursday night and into weekend with temperatures back closer to normal values. May not see much sunshine Friday as cyclonic circulation keeps low level moisture in the area. A few sprinkles not out of the question on Friday as an upper level vort lobe pushes down from the north. Partly cloudy over the weekend with a gradual warming trend. 58/rose

National Weather Service Memphis TN 344 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .DISCUSSION... The upper-low near the Four Corners continues to move east this afternoon with a well-defined baroclinic leaf downstream over the south-central CONUS. Pressure falls over the Southern Plains suggest surface cyclogenesis. This is verified by surface obs with a surface low and attendant triple point in northwest OK and a quasi-stationary front extending across AR into the TN Valley. Temperatures have overperformed by a few degrees with Memphis recording it`s first 80F reading of 2021 (last time was Nov 8). However, dewpoints have fallen into the 40s north of the stationary front resulting in a very pleasant afternoon. A few storms continue in the Starkville area, just south of the CWA, but we do expect this activity to gradually lift north along the warm front overnight. This convection is most likely after midnight. Strong shear and elevated instability may be sufficient to support a few weak, elevated supercells. With these storms being elevated, the primary risks will be hail up to the size of quarters and locally heavy rainfall. This convection will continue to lift north throughout the morning hours and is expected to reach the I-40 corridor after sunrise. Large scale forcing for ascent will be overspreading the CWA, steepening mid- level lapse rates and enhancing lift provided by warm advection and improving jet dynamics. Most of the convection by midday is expected to be in east AR or west TN with the warm sector across north MS likely seeing a bit of a lull. This lull will be important for destabilization. If we see a sufficient dry period, SBCAPE should be able to increase to 1500-2000 J/kg south of the warm front, whereas areas that remain in the muck will be see much more limited buoyancy. Shear will be quite strong with 0-6 km bulk wind difference near 60 kts. A few supercell structures are possible within the AM gunk, but will be more probable during the afternoon and evening hours where instability is stronger. If low-level warm advection and large scale ascent is sufficient to erode the cap, discrete supercells will be possible in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. This is the time for the greatest risk for strong (EF2+) tornadoes and sig hail (2+ inches). The cold front will approach the MS River after 00z, but storms are expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough during the mid/late afternoon hours. Strong line-normal shear will promote upscale growth, eventually forming into a QLCS. This QLCS will remain in a favorable environment for tornadoes and damaging wind as the low-level jet begins to intensify, but the large hail threat will begin to decrease. Several CAMs are representing 0-1 km storm relative helicity at or above 250 m2/s2 with Significant Tornado Parameter values of 1-3. As the line moves into west TN and north MS, we`ll maintain the risk for QLCS tornadoes and mesovortices. These tornadoes can develop quickly and it can be difficult to provide much lead time, especially far from the radar. Given the potential for nocturnal tornadoes, it is important to plan ahead and ensure you are capable of receiving timely weather alerts. In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible. We`re looking at widespread 1-2" with localized higher amounts. This activity will largely end by 06z, but there may be some lingering showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours. As the upper-low moves across the region on Thursday, expect scattered rain showers, mainly north of a Jonesboro- Savannah line. QPF with this precipitation should remain under 1/4 inch. Cooler and drier air will accompany Wednesday night`s cold front and will be ushered in by strong west winds. Wind gusts on Thursday may exceed 30 mph at times. Expect dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures on Friday with highs in the low/mid 50s. Given the dry air and clear skies, it`s possible that some areas will experience a frost Saturday morning. We`ll continue to monitor these trends for the weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will moderate over the weekend with dry conditions continuing through Sunday. Rain chances return next week. More details on that system as it approaches.

National Weather Service Nashville TN 218 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 ...Severe Weather is Likely in Middle TN on Wednesday... .DISCUSSION... Clouds have really hung tough across the southeastern half today. This has kept temperatures down for this area, but the sun is out in all its glory everywhere else across the mid-state and temperatures are responding with low to mid 70s at forecast time. I guess you could call today `the calm before the storm` because tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to be a different story. If you`ve been hiding under a rock (which is uncomfortable, by the way) for the last few days, we`ve been touting the idea that severe weather is on the way tomorrow and nothing has really changed that thought process. An upper level system taking shape over the southwestern U.S. right now will continue to intensify and push this direction overnight. As it does, a warm front will pull northward through our region providing ample moisture for storms to feed on. ** This is where part of the narrative has changed ** We`ve been questioning whether the warm front would pull far enough north to provide severe weather to most of Middle TN and it looks like this is going to happen. What this means is we`ll be dealing with three seperate time frames of concern: First, showers and thunderstorms will pull through the mid-state during the morning hours tomorrow. A few of these morning storms are going to be worth watching. There will be plenty of shear and just south of whereever the warm front is could see some decent storms. Second, this warm front will pull north into KY, leaving Middle TN in a moist, warm sector during the afternoon. Latest CAM guidance is suggesting it will be quiet and the environment will have an opportunity to warm and destabilize further for the evening activity. Let`s not get ahead of ourselves here. The afternoon is going to carry with it the potential for discrete supercell development. The bulk of this *should* remain southwest of Middle TN. However, there is the potential we could see some development or storms could develop to our southwest and move into our southwest counties (south of I-40 and west of I-65) during the afternoon. While confidence of this occurring is low, it does need to be monitored closely. Obviously, if this occurs, tornadoes, straight line winds and hail would be the main threat with any of these storms. Third, and this is the main show, storms along the cold front in the evening hours. Even if the afternoon stuff doesn`t occur, this is our best bet for severe weather for much of Middle TN -- and all modes: tornadoes, straight line winds, hail (less of a chance) and flash flooding. Main time frame is 7 pm until 2 am. Yes, 2 am. Latest guidance has slowed the approach of these storms, which could help things start later and linger later into the night for our eastern counties. Here`s the main takeaway from all of this: the bulk of this activity is at night, which means yet another nocturnal event in Middle TN. Please have multiple ways to get warnings (in case one way fails), have a plan in place to shelter in a hurry, if you go under a warning and third, you may even consider waiting until the storms pass you before going to bed Wednesday night. This might be more difficult east of I-65 as it`ll likely be later in the night before storms reach you, but it could be beneficial if pinched for time when you need to take shelter. The cold front associated with the overnight storms should have things off the Plateau before daybreak Thursday, however the rain is likely not to be over. The upper trough with this system could very well traverse Middle TN during the day on Thursday and provide an opportunity for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. I don`t expect anything severe, but with the cold core of the upper low overhead on Thursday, some hail associated with these storms is not out of the question, especially east of I-65. By Friday, things will quiet down for awhile. The weekend will be dry and decent, but if you`re fan of the GFS, yet another system could be on tap this time next week (the Euro holds off until later in the week). It is March and we are in severe weather season, so if you haven`t done so already, take a minute this evening and visit ready.gov/plan. You can get some pointers on how to prepare yourself and your family BEFORE the storms get to you.

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SIG AREA IN PROB GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from southern Virginia southward into Florida, and westward into portions of eastern Kentucky/eastern Tennessee Thursday. Along with potential for hail and locally damaging winds, several tornadoes -- a couple of them possibly strong -- are anticipated. ...Synopsis... A vigorous upper low initially progged over eastern portions of the Ozarks, is expected to continue steady eastward progression through the period, weakening gradually as it crosses the Appalachians and reaches Virginia/the Carolinas by the end of the period. In the wake of this feature, ridging will expand to encompass much of the country, as an eastern Pacific trough nears the Pacific Northwest Coast late. As the upper system advances, a surface low just ahead of cyclone aloft will likewise progress eastward, crossing the mountains during the evening before redeveloping offshore through the end of the period. A trailing cold front will cross the southern Appalachians through the first half of the period, before moving offshore overnight. A second day of fairly widespread -- and possibly locally substantial -- severe risk is anticipated. ...Parts of the Mid and Southern Atlantic Coast states, and westward into eastern parts of KY/TN... Showers and thunderstorms -- and some attendant severe weather risk -- will be ongoing Thursday morning, particularly over the southern Appalachians region. With associated clouds streaming northeastward across the middle and southern Atlantic Coast states, hindered heating -- and thus tempered diurnal destabilization -- is expected. Still, with northward advection of higher theta-e air east of the mountains ahead of the advancing surface system causing a rapid retreat of the remnant damming front, sufficient CAPE should evolve to support vigorous storms -- with intensity of the updrafts aided by strongly veering/increasing flow with height. Storms should increase through midday west of the mountains across parts of eastern Kentucky/eastern Tennessee ahead of the synoptic system. Relatively low-topped storms -- and local risk for all-hazards severe weather -- will likely evolve. Meanwhile, storms are expected to spread across Georgia and into the Carolinas ahead of the advancing cold front, along with some pre-frontal cellular development within a zone of strong warm advection east of the mountains. Given ample instability and a very favorably sheared environment, relatively widespread and locally substantial severe weather potential is indicated -- including risk for a few strong tornadoes. Potential is expected to expand northward toward/into southern Virginia with time as the front retreats into the evening, before convection begins to end from west to east as the cold front moves toward -- and eventually off -- the Atlantic Coast. ..Goss.. 03/16/2021