jaxjagman

See what the models show today.Euro6z went back to the west,probably just slower but the west shift shows a better LLJ

Looks like they are updating the maps daily now,time stamp says the 19th but it's been updating everyday

18z Euro is further east and weaker ,about where the GFS shows it at 0z Friday but the GFS 18z is now stronger

The 6Z Euro is further west, it now tightens it up more into the MO/V,it was showing the LLJ 55-65 KTS in the Valley now it's more 60-70 kts

Just some guidance from the map i ran off of.I would not trust it this far out tho.It basically just shows where a possibility of strong tornadoes could be.

National Weather Service Memphis TN 251 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .DISCUSSION... Beautiful conditions are occurring across the Mid-South this afternoon as upper ridging is occurring aloft. Temperatures have climbed into the mid 60s. Tranquil weather will come to an end as a large scale upper trough will set up over the Rockies on Monday and will remain in place through next week. As a result, a series of upper level low pressure systems move within the flow. The first will begin to dig into the Texas Panhandle on Monday. Clouds will begin developing across portions of the Mid-South ahead of the system late tonight into Monday morning. A few warm air advection showers will also be possible, but at this time not enough to mention 20 POPS. The upper level low will then lift northeastward into Northwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. The SFC low will be nearly stacked with the upper low tracking in a similar path. The system will also become occluded as it lifts northeastward pinching off instability limiting severe weather potential. That being said, there could still be some gusty winds from a decaying line of convection that moves into Eastern Arkansas late Monday Night into early Tuesday morning. The associated cold front will never clear the Mid-South and will become stalled over the area Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the front through Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday Night through Thursday evening as the next upper level low pressure system dives into the Southern Plains. The low will open up to a potent upper trof becoming negatively tilted as it lifts into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The latest GFS has come more in line with ECMWF and Canadian with the track of the SFC low in the vicinity of the Mississippi Delta. However, differences remain with timing of the system. A warm and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the system. Looking at the SLU CIPS Analog data, the number one analog shows this could be a potentially dangerous severe weather day across the portions of the Mid-South if the system evolves as models indicate. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be possible from storms that develop out ahead of the system. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Stay tuned. The final system will move out of the Rockies next weekend bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid- South. Temperatures will remain mild through the period. KRM

The Euro wants to bomb the system out once it reaches into the O/V.This would start to strenghten the LLJ to around55-65 kts once it starts to get into the MO/V in Tn,it even shows the LLJ getting to around 70 kts into Ky afterwards

Cips shows this as the top analog today ( "ducking from Jeff :)"

It's actually been a quiet time in Tn,we have only had one tornado so far this year

Subsurface is slightly warmer in the east, and also cooler east of the IDL.Surface has been cooling the last few days other than 4.CFS shows a KW coming through next week.Few days ago the CFS showed a stronger EKW,but not the past couple days.

https://whnt.com/weather/nws-huntsville-determines-a-second-ef-1-tornado-touched-down-in-cullman-county-wednesday-night/?fbclid=IwAR3JgsdxaIe-oV7F14ptxtFoRaDz3Bd4ua3jy-snFuZtMgG_wpivQ-e32WQ

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2021/03/17/march-17-18-2021-tornado-outbreak/

Sure looks like a active period is coming up.CFS shows a KW coming into play into wk3 and this Sunday a decent trough is going to go through East Asia.Models will more than likely struggle once again showing all kinds of solutions. Just a note and certainly no forecast but the day before the storms hit into dixie alley CIPS showed the best analog as 4-15-11 and then 12 days later was the super outbreak,during that time frame

Can't wait,it already seems to be much better https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-announce-major-upgrades-to-us-weather-model-march-22

Could be twins, the cells NE of Billingsley in Al

NE is Billingsley

grlevel2,yes you can get it but it is expensive

seems to be weakening some now

Yeah seems to be stronger

That is a huge area for a PDS URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Alabama Central to eastern Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are expected to develop this afternoon capable of producing strong to intense tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northwest of Gadsden AL to 35 miles southeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Try this

Generally yes,until midnight CST,then the next day takes over

National Weather Service Birmingham AL 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Through Wednesday morning. A wedge front is causing some chilly temperatures across the northeast counties this afternoon, with a milder and more humid air mass southwest of it. An effective warm front/low-level confluence axis across our southern counties is causing some training showers and storms there, aided by ripples in the southwest flow aloft. This activity will continue to cause locally heavy rainfall amounts across the south. Low streamflow values will mitigate the flooding threat somewhat, but some isolated flash flooding will be possible mainly in urban areas or if additional heavy rainfall moves into areas of our southwest counties that have already received 3 to 4 inches of rainfall. Effective shear values around 50 kts have resulted in a few rotating storms across our south this afternoon which could produce localized hail or damaging winds. Low-level SRH is marginal until you get further north to the wedge front, so while the threat for a brief tornado is non-zero, it is low. Further north, clouds are limiting instability. Severe potential further to the north seems fairly low, but will leave it in for the afternoon for now with some clearing occurring in our northwest counties. May get a lull in activity tonight with the loss in daytime heating before activity increases after midnight as the effective warm front lifts northward and another weak shortwave moves through. Most of the activity will be along and north of the warm front, with elevated instability and shear supportive of some hail and gusty winds. But if a storm is able to be rooted near the surface along the warm front, there will be a low but non-zero threat of an isolated tornado across the north early Wednesday morning. With a more significant threat later in the day on Wednesday, won`t be including this on our messaging at this time but will continue to monitor. 32/Davis .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0308 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ **Significant severe weather outbreak expected Wednesday and Wednesday night** Overall little change to the forecast thinking, with a relatively long duration and significant severe threat for all modes of severe weather. A potent and compact low-amplitude trough will move from the Southern Plains on Wednesday to the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night, preceded by a 60-80kt mid-level speed max and a 40-50kt LLJ. A 998mb surface low will track from Oklahoma to Illinois with a broad warm sector with mid to upper 60s dew points in advance of a cold front. Shortwave ridging/anti-cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to develop Wednesday morning which should allow the early morning showers/storms to move out of the area. This will allow for heating and ample destabilization. CAPE values will increase to 2000 to 3000 J/kg across much of the area by afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the air mass across the warm front will be uncapped across the warm sector by afternoon, and CAMs are in fairly good agreement on scattered to perhaps numerous supercells developing in the 1 to 4 PM timeframe. Low- level SRH is less than 200 m2/s2 initially during the afternoon, so large, potentially significant hail may be the main threat initially with 50 to 60kt of 0-6km shear aiding updraft rotation, but a couple isolated tornadoes will still be possible. For simplicity, will start the threat time at 2 PM everywhere to account for this activity. After 4 PM, the 850mb jet and associated SRH begins to really ramp up across West Alabama, and across the rest of the area by 6 to 7 PM. This is when concern for strong, potentially long track tornadoes will begin to ramp up with any semi-discrete supercells still present. We will also be monitoring mesoscale trends closely for the possibility of a violent tornado. It`s hard to find too many limiting factors for this event, but if I had to mention one it might be if too many storms get going too early before the low-level shear increases. However with the strong low-level jet and activity remaining cellular I don`t see this being much of a limiting factor. Will also need to monitor the northward movement of the wedge front. It could limit the afternoon threat across some of our far northeast counties, but also serve as an additional source of helicity for storms near the warm side of it. I do expect the wedge front to exit the area prior to the overnight activity. During the late evening and overnight hours, another strong line of storms will move in from the west ahead of the cold front. Shear vector orientation has a component normal to the line and the magnitude is strong as well. This will be favorable for embedded supercells in the line or a semi-broken line of supercells, therefore this activity will also be a concern for strong to intense long-track tornadoes, not just weak QLCS spin- ups. Additionally, any bowing segments will have a significant wind threat as well. Outside of storms, gradient winds near 35 mph will be possible, and will monitor for the possible need for a wind advisory. Activity will remain fairly progressive and antecedent conditions still fairly dry, limiting the overall flooding threat, but some minor flooding in poor drainage areas is possible, and some rivers are forecast to be near or above flood stage. The rest of the previous long term discussion remains valid. 32/Davis Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0311 AM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ Thursday through Sunday. Storms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across east Alabama, but should be in a weakening trend. Should see some clearing skies during the day Thursday as drier low level air moves in behind exiting cold front. However, strong cold air advection will also bring low clouds back into the area Thursday afternoon, starting in the west and spreading eastward. A much colder air mass Thursday night and into weekend with temperatures back closer to normal values. May not see much sunshine Friday as cyclonic circulation keeps low level moisture in the area. A few sprinkles not out of the question on Friday as an upper level vort lobe pushes down from the north. Partly cloudy over the weekend with a gradual warming trend. 58/rose