jaxjagman

Shear still looks the question

Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAY01 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-MAY 10.1 4.0 0 578 560 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 22.7 3.6 0 579 562 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 19.6 14.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 14.1 8.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 15.3 7.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 565 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 25.0 8.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 575 566 MON 00Z 03-MAY 19.7 13.4 0 0.01 0.00 0.01 572 566 MON 06Z 03-MAY 17.4 16.1 258 0.07 0.06 0.01 569 565 MON 12Z 03-MAY 18.3 17.8 303 0.22 0.14 0.08 569 565 MON 18Z 03-MAY 23.0 20.4 1914 0.34 0.29 0.05 573 568 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 23.2 20.2 1941 0.09 0.06 0.02 575 571 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 19.2 18.8 1487 0.31 0.25 0.06 577 569 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 18.3 17.9 1547 0.26 0.26 0.00 577 569 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 24.5 20.6 1286 0.38 0.33 0.06 577 571 WED 00Z 05-MAY 21.9 20.1 971 0.02 0.01 0.01 575 570 WED 06Z 05-MAY 19.2 19.0 640 0.85 0.69 0.16 572 567 WED 12Z 05-MAY 13.8 12.9 8 0.05 0.01 0.04 572 562 WED 18Z 05-MAY 18.3 10.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 560 THU 00Z 06-MAY 16.8 9.4 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 559 THU 06Z 06-MAY 10.8 8.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 556 THU 12Z 06-MAY 10.1 6.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 571 554 THU 18Z 06-MAY 15.2 4.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 551 FRI 00Z 07-MAY 13.9 9.4 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 561 547 FRI 06Z 07-MAY 10.0 6.9 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 557 545 FRI 12Z 07-MAY 10.8 8.8 13 0.01 0.01 0.00 553 543 FRI 18Z 07-MAY 13.8 9.7 61 0.15 0.12 0.03 554 544 SAT 00Z 08-MAY 9.7 7.4 13 0.12 0.07 0.06 554 541 SAT 06Z 08-MAY 6.7 3.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 553 539 SAT 12Z 08-MAY 5.3 1.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 555 539

Critical Angle The "critical angle" is the angle between the storm-relative wind at the surface and the 0-500 m AGL shear vector [(kt) displayed only for areas where the effective inflow base is the ground (SBCAPE 100 J kg-1 or greater, and less than 250 J kg-1 CIN]. A critical angle near 90 degrees infers streamwise vorticity near the ground, which favors stronger cyclonic rotation and dynamically forced ascent closer to the ground in a right-moving supercell (through the effects of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity). Critical angles in the range of 45 to 135 degrees suggest near-surface vorticity is more streamwise than crosswise, and values in this range are highlighted by the color fill. Large SRH colocated with a critical angle close to 90 degrees is most favorable for tornadic supercells.

90 is optimal like you said ,it can go lower or higher

LOL..you better not leave us,your opinion means to much here,I've learned alot from you as i am sure many others would vouch my same opinion.

Yeah, supercell

CAM on the GFS would be concerning with nocturnal storms while people are sleeping Monday evening into early morn

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z MAY01 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC BNDRY SFC BEST SFC BNDRY 3000M PWW CAPE CAPE LIX LIX CIN CIN HEL (IN) J/KG J/KG (C) (C) J/KG J/KG M2/S2 SAT 12Z 01-MAY 0.7 0 0 13 10 0 0 41 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 0.8 0 0 7 8 0 0 33 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 0.9 3 0 5 6 -22 0 18 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 1.3 0 0 7 6 0 0 35 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 1.5 0 0 8 4 0 0 145 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 1.6 1 22 5 2 0 -1 115 MON 00Z 03-MAY 1.5 2 64 2 0 -20 -19 253 MON 06Z 03-MAY 1.5 4 70 1 0 -81 -20 184 MON 12Z 03-MAY 1.4 441 1115 -2 -5 -161 -20 197 MON 18Z 03-MAY 1.3 1941 1852 -6 -6 -76 -85 244 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 1.3 3229 3206 -10 -10 -50 -52 273 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 1.6 2851 2918 -10 -10 -76 -61 144 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 1.2 138 138 -1 -2 -429 -411 28 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 1.4 1433 1171 -6 -5 -8 -20 143

Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks

Pfizer

NAM could be bullish like normal in this time frame

Seems to be the whole question is going to be what kind of wind shear and how strong of an inversion will be at times.No problem with instability Monday into Tuesday

That was a confirmed EF-1,this was the 10th tornado in Tn this year,we avg around 26 per year

Got my first COVID shot Monday.Man,that just sucked the life out of me until today,no energy, just wanted to stay in bed.I didn't feel nothing when she gave the shot until later that night,felt like someone kept giving me a frog in my arm for about 24 hrs. I'm not looking forward to the booster shot in 2 weeks,that's gonna suck i bet every thing i'm hearing.

Went to watch my daughter dance today @ the Ryman,$32 to just park at that damn place,please !!,She got double platinum which is second place,so this took some of my misery away with the $35 dollar admission fee..lol

Not very exciting for us in the Valley indeed right now

Looks like a potential active pattern coming up.Trough going through East Asia and a recurving phoon potentially.Should start around the 25th or 26th i believe in our parts, depending on timing and what it shows the next few days

Did you catch that like Jeff mentioned?I saw it on my radar at a quick glance, but had to do something at the time.

Starting to see some warming once again within the subsurface in the east.Nina looks like crap right now but east of the IDL has been cooling.NMME models are showing a potential resurgent NINA upcoming into this winter seemingly

Models are hinting at a ULL diving down towards the Valley next week.Overall the Global winds are meh.1+2 ENSO is meh as well right now.Troughs going to East Asia but not really impressive looking but still troughs. CFS has a Kelvin coming through next week,so this should be a uptick to a severe weather potential period.

National Weather Service Nashville TN 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 ...Measured Rainfall from Saturday, March 27 through Sunday March 28... Repeated rounds of very heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding issues in many areas across Middle Tennessee from Saturday morning, March 27th, through Sunday morning March 28th. Below are some of the highest measured rainfall totals during that time period. Amounts are in inches. Location Amount Source Franklin 8.65 CoCoRaHS Clarkrange 8.41 CoCoRaHS Brentwood 8.16 CoCoRaHS Elmwood 7.80 CoCoRaHS Fairview 7.83 CoCoRaHS Centerville 7.76 CoCoRaHS Christiana 7.28 CoCoRaHS Hermitage 7.16 CoCoRaHS Lebanon 7.05 CoCoRaHS Nashville Int Airport 7.01 ASOS Murfreesboro 7.00 CoCoRaHS Mount Juliet 6.88 CoCoRaHS Rock Vale 6.85 CoCoRaHS Belle Meade 6.73 CoCoRaHS Jamestown 6.59 CoCoRaHS Carthage 6.32 OHX COOP Cookeville 6.21 CoCoRaHS Lobelville 6.20 OHX COOP Spring Hill 5.98 CoCoRaHS Woodbury 5.88 CoCoRaHS Monterey 5.67 OHX COOP Pickett State Park 5.60 OHX COOP Cookeville 5.45 OHX COOP Allardt 5.39 OHX COOP Smithville 2 SE 5.30 OHX COOP Gallatin 5.22 CoCoRaHS Dickson 5.26 CoCoRaHS Livingston 5.12 CoCoRaHS Byrdstown 5.09 CoCoRaHS

Subsurface and surface has really cooled recently 1+2.EKW is going through this region the next couple days

Went to take my daughter to dance class in Franklin,it's totally almost flooded out in Downtown Franklin from the Harpeth,many roads are closed.Insane amount of rain we got here.Storms stayed elevated most of the day,not sure if they ever got rooted after i went to sleep.Numerous water rescues and sadly a couple people drowned.

No doubt

Damn good rain,some spots just west of us has had around 7-8" today,its not over