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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    You talk to Vortex any?I seen where they had a tornado recently around where he lives,he went AWOL on us
  2. jaxjagman
    These models can be real shitty with severe,just like today.Nashville has been telling people for the last few days to not let your guard down today,which the models have been showing with basically wind dmg.We didnt get next to nothing,not even a drop of rain
  3. jaxjagman
    Wouldnt trust any model right now in our parts,GFS even looks much better tonight,east of the Cymberland,late Monday
  4. jaxjagman
    This should even kick off phoons once again,even tho this is 360 hrs out by the GFS from Rossby and plus Kelvin waves.
  5. jaxjagman
    This looks like another Rossby Wave west of the IDL,while some RMMS are hinting the MJO could possibly go back into the WP,the MJO signal seemingly is getting destructive interference from this and is into the WH.I see the CFS is already showing another strong WWB but be carefulll looking at this or any models,that WWB last time wasnt as strong east of the IDL and was more or less picked up at times by the Rossby Wave train.
  6. jaxjagman
    Yes the last few runs the GFS develops a cap in MID TN Into the east,but we'll see soon enough how strong that cap actually is as the, LLJ kicks something like 35-45 kts,that cap might not materialize as shown.Might be picking shit from cherry blossoms other wise with severe..lol On the other hand the last few runs could be a better severe threat even early Wed,maybe nocturnal if the shortwave around the MO/Valley is real what the Euro is showing
  7. jaxjagman
    More like the whole state.TN leads leads the nation with 46% being nocturnal tornadoes
  8. jaxjagman
    Severe is to hard to be predict/modeled than snow.We even saw this in our parts last week where Saturday was being modeled as more severe than Thursday even a couple days before,but it ended up opposite Nashville disco this morning even mentioned Social Media.It's going wild.Even one person bringing up 2011 that have many,.many followers,you shouldnt even bring up that word,2011, this far out.
  9. jaxjagman
    You guys have had a good severe season.Last year we was off to a great start until the strong blocking happened into the Aluetians and Bearing Sea,this typically pulls the jet max further north sorta speaking and our severe went dormant which the OV got quite active.Gensini has a good paper written about tropical forcing with Nino compared to NINA,Im starting to think thatall this tropical forcing into the WP earlier mainly from Rossby Waves is playing a part,but this at least seems to changing in which seemingly a CCKW and a Rossby Wave into the East Pac upcomign for a change
  10. jaxjagman
    Maybe we can finally get some severe weather and even for that matter,just rain into the Tn Valley finally,its been realitive dead here since the new year,only 3 confirmed tornadoes in TN
  11. jaxjagman
    Slight risk D6 into the Ozarks and portions of the MId South. We seem to be headed towards a strong NINO,down the road.These strong NINO'S can be hit or miss in a season.Back in 2023 in which the RONI could be compared to this year ATM we had 40 tornadoes in TN that year.With a couple outbreaks in late March,early Aprili and early Dec and more or less rogue tornadoes in the summer time.But east TN had the most tornadoes since 2012 that year
  12. jaxjagman
    At the same time you can already notice a pattern change,you can actually see this in East Asia as the MJO goes into the WH into the IO,you see more troughs,we should see a wetter pattern as we get into the 3rd week of April upcoming and more than likely into May
  13. jaxjagman
    That system today was definite a disappointment
  14. jaxjagman
    These happen more often than people think they do and more like every 2-3 years from convective coupled Equatorial Rossby Waves,we even had one in 2022 during mainly a strong NINA
  15. jaxjagman
    Oh it was brutal here trying to drive this morning,i thought something happened on I-65 but it was because of traffic lights being down from debris knocking them out,that was seemingly a nice microburst we saw here in Brentwood
  16. jaxjagman
    Mesoscales seems to have whiffed.I do agree with you tho this was SPC and not OHX,in which OHX they will take the black eye.I dont understand myself why a STW wasnt issued.We had more or less breaks in the clouds in the afternoon which brought on more instability than what the models showed with diurnal heating,sure it happened later but not as sooner as it should have been.Its always a problem with models with a positive tilted troughs,they always can come in sooner than later,its what we seen yesterday
  17. jaxjagman
    We havent seen this in quite some time,while the CFS can overdue the MJO for certain,its been fairly consistent,either way its gonna knock off that pesky Mid Atl ridge,we have some wiggle room anyways as we head into the 3rd week of April,the typhooon is another story tho,its recurving to far east offf of Japan and building heights from East China through the Sea of Japan,you're probably gonna see ridge building back in the east down the road, rather see the storm going though,Korea or for the matter China
  18. jaxjagman
    Oh i agree with you,but at least we are seeing the tropical convection getting displaced in the upcoming days,we havent seen this in quite some time,which seems to be by a Rossby Wave in the EP and not WP
  19. jaxjagman
    Maybe we'll get a big snow into our area this upcoming winter,Nino does fairly well with Moderate to strong Ninos,they always produce,but the winter in whole should be AN temps,typically Dec should be fairly warm.
  20. jaxjagman
    LOL @ Jeff,you know i was thinking the same thing a couple days ago,that damn MS River,but its the SER like you said,convection into our parts stops west of the River,im still kinda surprised a good chunk of ARK is worse off than we are in TN with the drought Nothing eye popping the next week,some parts should flirt with record temps upcoming the next few days. But there is light at the end of the tunnel,a pattern change is upcoming seemingly ATM The MJO should strenghten into the WH as it looks like Rossby/Kelvin waves interact with each other to strenghten the MJO signal sorta speaking as it heads into Africa
  21. jaxjagman
    There was a WB back into 2023 around the same time from a Rossby Wave.There was also another RW in Mid May JAMSTEC Mean shows the DMI rising into fall almost to +1.5 ATM,but when the DMI rises like this ,this is typical the norm you see more or less NINA the following year,least it's been like this the last several decades
  22. jaxjagman
  23. jaxjagman
    2015? We had a ice storm that winter,severe was literally non-existent which that year proceeded into a strong NINO later in 2015. Who knows,snowstorm in Jan 2016?That was the most snow we got here in decades.Seems like the potential flooding of Pac air this winter upcoming,AN temps should be the main course
  24. jaxjagman
    Think it could get active as we get into April for a bit.The problem with the MJO is the ERW in which caused twin cyclones and has caused social media hysteria like its never happened before from a ERW.But this is from the Coriolis effect,which makes storms on both sides of the equator and move east to west Its like living the Polar Vortex again since what,OVER decade ago?But this has happened since at least the dinosaur era and beyond ?..LOL I dunno,seems like to me the MJO has been back into Africa the last few days,its caused lots of deaths in that region and the MJO signal is getting totally destroyed by this ERW,could just as well be the transition into NINO
  25. jaxjagman
    Some of these models especially the CFS has this for whatever reason are to amped when the Rossby Wave Train moves into the WP/MC.You dont seem to see these wind burst even pan out very well.The RMMS today seems to show this Rossby Wave further west than what they have been showing recently as some now show the MJO go back into the WP.It seems possible to me this Rossby Wave could strenghten the MJO signal into the Maritime/IO as we get into April
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