dendrite

6z GFS brings the 591dm ridge back.

So the 00z euro was weaker (a little more open) with the SPV and further south with it than other runs. To my eyes, it tries to squash the shortwave and it ends up more of an elongated, sheared mess as it reaches the northeast. The better runs have kept the SPV a hair further north with a few closed contours and that shortwave dives under more intact, they do a little fuji, and then we get the good punch of dPVA curling near SNE as the SPV merges in behind it. As Ray said, this is all happening at high speed. But there’s a lot going on in the arctic with these pieces over the next 24hrs before they start to separate themselves and become more clean cut. People get pissed at the models, but it doesn’t take much of a change upstream 96hrs out to throw things out of whack.

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet.

Definite step back for the weekend. H5 looking more like a sheared mess.

Let’s get some snow first so we can torch it away.

Yeah this is roughly where the developing SPV and shortwave trough, that eventually slides under it, are right now. There’s lots of little tweaks in the flow that could help this or hurt this in the coming days. As others have said, the end result is we want more “curl” of the vortmax so we can punch that dPVA further north.

16° here but it should slowly climb the rest of the night

Skynet vs Graphcast

Father and son discussing weenies while mom tries to not choke on her American chop suey.

People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet. With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol. 12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday.

2015! (ok verification was a few days off)

ACATT

That’s 00z Here’s 12z

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

It really wouldn’t take much to amp this up a little more…just need that SPV to drop in behind the speeding shortwave a little earlier/deeper.

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

Holy shit.

588dm up to SNE. lol

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas. If you like 60s.

It’s kinda funny looking back at those charts I posted during the 80s. The first week of Dec in those decades were relatively warm minus 1989. Of course the scripts flipped in Jan many of those years including Jan 1990 which flipped warm.

You can look up some of these years. Here’s the “bottom 10” coldest Dec 1-8 periods for CON, ORH, BOS, and BDL

I get it. It’s a lot more difficult on the coast down there pre Christmas and like you said, these are the departures you need…although I’d argue Mooseville hitting -20s on 12/9 is probably more cold than we need…especially in the 2020s versus 1970s.

Ginxy may be the only one that loves snow in someone else’s yard as much as his.

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.