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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    850s are mid. 925 is where this is coming in at. MSS laughs at -24c 850s
  2. dendrite
    One of the NYC sites hitting 4° or 5° wouldn’t surprise me if we get that -22C core low enough, but I think it’ll be a little better mixed up to 925 than some of the mesos have. If this ends up 1 in 50 year cold given those 850s and 925s then I will eat my hat. But again, it will be cold. I’m not trying to meh it. Just trying to keep perspective.
  3. dendrite
    I referenced previous events with modeled 925 temps 4-5C colder. And I really don’t care about snowpack in the city with CAA at night. But we’ll see!
  4. dendrite
    6z swiss
  5. dendrite
    AI has more of a hint of the north shore jack than the op.
  6. dendrite
    High temps? Most of the lower el SNE sites start pushing 40° for max temp climo around then.
  7. dendrite
    OKX soundings had -25C and -26C at 925 for 2/4/23 12z and 2/14/16 12z respectively. Mins at Central Park were +3 and -1. LGA was +5 and +1. MOS has mins of +7 with this right now.
  8. dendrite
    It’ll be cold for sure though…especially west of us and into WNE. The core is pretty low and shallow…-20C to -22C at 925. So they could easily get well into the single digits.
  9. dendrite
    1 in 50 years? lol LGA probably doesn’t even break a record low min
  10. dendrite
    We’re not trying to pop supercells in June here. That’s pretty unstable for snowfall.
  11. dendrite
    Pushing 200 joules of SBCAPE just offshore with big low/mid level omega in the DGZ.
  12. dendrite
    Yeah I think that’s been modeled for awhile. It’s feeling the tug from that H5 low. We get a little meso high over PWM to start and then a lobe from that PV starts digging S of LI and seems to really help back the flow over ENE as we get sfc pressure falls near the BM. I think that’s why we’ve seen a trend on that fropa being delayed Saturday and instead enhanced precip along that slowing sfc convergence zone (inv trough).
  13. dendrite
    Good thing ORH doesn’t have classes on Sunday.
  14. dendrite
    Min 5.4 before the clouds arrived
  15. dendrite
    Maybe a little NE oro assist there with the conv zone setting up right over the high terrain?
  16. dendrite
    Just a few of the larger ones poking through. Like Mt Washington during the last glacial maximum.
  17. dendrite
    I don’t think there will be much wind until the fropa.
  18. dendrite
    Not even the Roswell aliens could escape 2k in VT
  19. dendrite
    The Swiss has the Cape Ann convection cranking up Sat morning too.
  20. dendrite
    Just post the mean
  21. dendrite
    It’s all going to end up in the Atlantic or around the OWD ASOS.
  22. dendrite
    If S Wey gets 6”…yes
  23. dendrite
    Not a lot. But it’s definitely an outlier…even west of its AI.
  24. dendrite
    Euro and Ukie are both still west with the cold dump and both have that inv trough further west toward Dittyville.
  25. dendrite
    Feb 69 I would’ve been digging the thermometer out. lol
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