NorthShoreWx

Same here, except that most of the additional area was well away from the Northeast.

My best guess is, because Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. Is that really northeast?

If its a Northeast Snowfall Impact rating, why does the storm of January 19-21, 1978 rank higher than the famous blizzard a little over 2 weeks later:

Finally, since its a slow wx news day, here is how my backyard fared in every NESIS event since 1/1/1996 as listed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis Rank Start End NESIS Cat Description Smithtown Snowfall 2 1/6/1996 1/8/1996 11.78 5 Extreme 22.3 59 3/31/1997 4/1/1997 2.29 1 Notable 3.0 56 1/24/2000 1/26/2000 2.52 2 Significant 5.3 58 12/30/2000 12/31/2000 2.37 1 Notable 11.0 87 1/19/2001 1/21/2001 1.12 1 Notable 4.0 57 1/2/2003 1/5/2003 2.49 1 Notable 2.2 82 2/6/2003 2/8/2003 1.3 1 Notable 6.8 6 2/15/2003 2/18/2003 7.5 4 Crippling 18.8 75 3/3/2003 3/6/2003 1.54 1 Notable 5.7 51 12/14/2003 12/16/2003 2.77 2 Significant 4.9 63 1/27/2004 1/28/2004 2.03 1 Notable 13.5 9 1/21/2005 1/24/2005 6.8 4 Crippling 14.4 50 2/28/2005 3/2/2005 2.84 2 Significant 7.2 34 2/12/2006 2/13/2006 4.1 3 Major 13.3 16 2/12/2007 2/15/2007 5.63 3 Major 1.3 54 3/15/2007 3/18/2007 2.54 2 Significant 4.8 85 12/19/2008 12/20/2008 1.25 1 Notable 7.3 80 1/17/2009 1/19/2009 1.32 1 Notable 3.1 73 3/1/2009 3/3/2009 1.59 1 Notable 11.5 37 12/18/2009 12/21/2009 3.99 2 Significant 17.0 69 1/29/2010 1/30/2010 1.66 1 Notable 0.0 30 2/4/2010 2/7/2010 4.38 3 Major Trace 33 2/9/2010 2/11/2010 4.1 3 Major 14.5 17 2/23/2010 2/28/2010 5.46 3 Major 12.1 26 12/24/2010 12/28/2010 4.92 3 Major 12.0 21 1/9/2011 1/13/2011 5.31 3 Major 15.8 61 1/26/2011 1/27/2011 2.17 1 Notable 14.5 22 2/1/2011 2/3/2011 5.3 3 Major 0.8 66 10/29/2011 10/30/2011 1.75 1 Notable Trace 31 2/7/2013 2/10/2013 4.35 3 Major 27.0 48 3/4/2013 3/9/2013 3.05 2 Significant 6.9 49 12/13/2013 12/16/2013 2.95 2 Significant 4.2 45 12/30/2013 1/3/2014 3.31 2 Significant 8.5 84 1/20/2014 1/22/2014 1.26 1 Notable 9.0 35 1/29/2014 2/4/2014 4.08 3 Major 8.8 44 2/4/2014 2/5/2014 3.34 2 Significant 3.1 23 2/11/2014 2/14/2014 5.28 3 Major 13.5 74 11/26/2014 11/28/2014 1.56 1 Notable Trace 76 12/9/2014 12/14/2014 1.49 1 Notable 1.4 53 1/25/2015 1/28/2015 2.62 2 Significant 15.0 18 1/29/2015 2/3/2015 5.42 3 Major 8.3 79 2/8/2015 2/10/2015 1.32 1 Notable 0.3 81 2/20/2015 2/22/2015 1.31 1 Notable 4.4 68 3/3/2015 3/5/2015 1.66 1 Notable 6.3 5 1/22/2016 1/24/2016 7.66 4 Crippling 17.5 55 1/4/2017 1/8/2017 2.52 2 Significant 9.5 64 2/9/2017 2/10/2017 1.87 1 Notable 12.0 24 3/12/2017 3/15/2017 5.03 3 Major 4.5 60 1/3/2018 1/5/2018 2.27 1 Notable 11.0 70 3/1/2018 3/3/2018 1.65 1 Notable 0.1 42 3/5/2018 3/8/2018 3.45 2 Significant 9.1 47 3/11/2018 3/15/2018 3.16 2 Significant 6.0 71 3/20/2018 3/22/2018 1.63 1 Notable 13.6 62 1/11/2019 1/13/2019 2.03 1 Notable Trace 83 3/3/2019 3/4/2019 1.29 1 Notable 4.8 46 12/14/2020 12/18/2020 3.21 2 Significant 6.7 25 1/30/2021 2/3/2021 4.93 3 Major 16.6 88 1/1/2022 1/3/2022 1.06 1 Notable Trace 72 1/4/2022 1/7/2022 1.6 1 Notable 9.1 67 1/28/2022 1/30/2022 1.73 1 Notable 16.4 4 12/13/2022 12/20/2022 8.52 4 Crippling 0.0 52 12/21/2022 12/26/2022 2.66 2 Significant 0.0

Here is the local data that I looked at: Smithtown NESIS Outcomes by season Winter Total Seasonal Snowfall # of NESIS storms Snowfall from NESIS events Net Snowfall excluding NESIS 1995-1996 94.9 1 22.3 72.6 1996-1997 17.3 1 3.0 14.3 1997-1998 4.3 0 0.0 4.3 1998-1999 25.6 0 0.0 25.6 1999-2000 16.3 1 5.3 11.0 2000-2001 50.0 2 15.0 35.0 2001-2002 7.3 0 0.0 7.3 2002-2003 62.5 4 33.5 29.0 2003-2004 56.2 2 18.4 37.8 2004-2005 62.9 2 21.6 41.3 2005-2006 24.2 1 13.3 10.9 2006-2007 11.7 2 6.1 5.6 2007-2008 14.0 0 0.0 14.0 2008-2009 38.2 3 21.9 16.3 2009-2010 60.1 5 43.6 16.5 2010-2011 60.8 4 43.1 17.7 2011-2012 4.5 1 0.0 4.5 2012-2013 46.0 2 33.9 12.1 2013-2014 68.0 6 47.1 20.9 2014-2015 67.0 7 35.7 31.3 2015-2016 38.2 1 17.5 20.7 2016-2017 41.6 3 26.0 15.6 2017-2018 65.1 5 39.8 25.3 2018-2019 21.7 2 4.8 16.9 2019-2020 9.4 0 0.0 9.4 2020-2021 41.9 2 23.3 18.6 2021-2022 36.2 3 25.5 10.7 2022-2023 8.6 2 0.0 8.6 For this period, our average annual snowfall was 37.7", of which 17.9" (47.5%) fell during NESIS ranked storms.

Some examples:

We had 2" here before the rain, but IIRC DC had all snow and another 8". Just unlucky at the end of a very good week.

The original KU list was a subjective list of major northeast storms that Kocin and Ucelliini found impactful and meteorologically interesting and subsequently published and then updated an excellent book on their research. Taking it to the next level they worked to quantity the list by devising a calculation to attempt an estimate of how many people were impacted and how severely they were impacted. This became NESIS which I understand is now described as a "regional index", whatever that means as it seems to cover 2/3 of the country. Here are some things that I think should be considered when using "K-U" events to make broader climate associations in the northeast: 1. There is no "KU track". Clippers that largely do not achieve warning level snows in our region can get elevated to KU status if a cold wind in their wake manages to bury the Chicago area (as well as western and central NY, etc.) in lake affect, adding millions of people to the calculation. Likewise, a storm that drops a few inches across the deep south and manages to get some routine snows up towards the northeast can get the designation. Benchmark tracks feature in most of the biggest snowfalls in our area, but they are not common to all KU events. 2. Pretty much every significant snowfall (and some fairly insignificant ones) this century gets a NESIS rating (i.e., is a "KU"). Nearly every year has a KU; between the 1999-2000 and 2022-23 winter seasons there were only 4 winters out of 24 without a KU (2001-2, 2007-8, 2011-12, and 2019-20). The odds of a snowy winter having a KU are high because the odds of any winter having a KU are high. Prior to this century, storms were not evaluated in the same way. 3. Many of the NESIS cases had limited impacts on the northeast, others had major impacts limited to the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest to Maine, but little impact south of there. Still others were mostly notable from the gulf coast through the mid-Atlantic. In short, they are all different, with different evolutions, effect different areas, have variations in the long wave patterns, and individual KUs often represent an aggregation of the effects of multiple shortwaves with varying reflections at the surface. The breadth of these events is not the same as what Kocin and Ucellini originally focused on. 4. I looked at 30 years of snowfall data from my own site since I had easy access and I trust the data. 8 of those years had snowfall of between 25 and 72 inches exclusive of snow that fell during KU events. The list would be even longer if we assume that there would have been some snowfall even if the KU events not occurred (i.e., there may still have been smaller or less widespread snowfalls during the same time periods). In other words, "zeroing out" KU totals from the record is probably not realistic. Of course there is no way to quantify what that might have been.

-25 on March 24 is one chilly fake spring day.

2014 1 1 19 32 0.00 0.0005 2014 1 2 15 31 0.04 3.0 1 2014 1 3 8 16 0.81 5.5 9 2014 1 4 0 28 0.00 0.0 8 2014 1 5 10 50 0.00 0.0 7 2014 1 6 25 58 0.36 0.0005 T 2014 1 7 6 25 0.13 0.0 T 2014 1 8 8 24 0.00 0.0 T 2014 1 9 17 32 0.00 0.0 T 2014 1 10 17 35 0.0005 0.0005 T 2014 1 11 35 59 0.30 0.0 2014 1 12 30 51 0.70 0.0 2014 1 13 26 51 0.00 0.0 2014 1 14 39 47 0.13 0.0 2014 1 15 31 47 0.57 0.0 2014 1 16 30 39 0.00 0.0005 2014 1 17 24 45 0.0005 0.0 2014 1 18 28 46 0.0005 0.0005 2014 1 19 26 36 0.00 0.0 2014 1 20 31 46 0.00 0.0 2014 1 21 13 32 0.00 0.0 2014 1 22 6 14 0.47 8.0 T 2014 1 23 7 22 0.00 1.0 8 2014 1 24 10 20 0.00 1.5 7 2014 1 25 17 34 0.00 0.0 6 2014 1 26 16 30 0.10 0.0005 5 2014 1 27 20 47 0.0005 0.0 4 2014 1 28 12 20 0.00 0.1 2 2014 1 29 11 26 0.11 1.5 4 2014 1 30 5 32 0.00 0.0 3 2014 1 31 16 43 0.00 0.0 3 2014 2 1 28 45 0.00 0.0 3 2014 2 2 31 58 0.00 0.0 2 2014 2 3 28 39 0.51 8.8 4 2014 2 4 21 40 0.61 0.0 9 2014 2 5 28 33 1.04 3.1 11 2014 2 6 19 30 0.00 0.0 10 2014 2 7 16 34 0.04 0.0 9 2014 2 8 18 29 0.00 0.0 9 2014 2 9 16 31 0.00 1.3 8 2014 2 10 18 30 0.09 0.0 9 2014 2 11 13 27 0.00 0.0 9 2014 2 12 13 26 0.00 0.0005 9 2014 2 13 26 32 1.45 12.5 17 2014 2 14 27 43 0.38 1.0 18 2014 2 15 25 36 0.20 2.9 17 2014 2 16 21 29 0.00 0.2 20 2014 2 17 16 32 0.00 0.0 19 2014 2 18 18 37 0.00 4.0 20 2014 2 19 23 45 0.23 0.0 17 2014 2 20 30 51 0.28 0.0 15 2014 2 21 35 52 0.03 0.0 13 2014 2 22 31 53 0.11 0.0 10 2014 2 23 31 56 0.00 0.0 8 2014 2 24 25 44 0.02 0.0005 6 2014 2 25 22 34 0.00 0.0005 5 2014 2 26 16 32 0.0005 1.2 5 2014 2 27 7 33 0.06 0.3 6 2014 2 28 10 26 0.02 0.0 5 2015 1 1 18 39 0.00 0.0 2015 1 2 28 44 0.00 0.0 2015 1 3 25 43 0.00 0.0005 2015 1 4 40 54 0.82 0.0 2015 1 5 19 50 0.25 0.0 2015 1 6 14 22 0.00 0.5 2015 1 7 8 26 0.04 0.0005 1 2015 1 8 7 23 0.0005 0.0 T 2015 1 9 16 33 0.00 1.7 1 2015 1 10 14 25 0.11 0.0 2 2015 1 11 10 35 0.00 0.0 1 2015 1 12 33 36 0.00 0.0 1 2015 1 13 20 35 0.69 0.0 2015 1 14 19 27 0.0005 0.0005 2015 1 15 20 35 0.0005 0.0 2015 1 16 19 43 0.00 0.0 2015 1 17 15 28 0.00 0.0 2015 1 18 20 48 0.00 0.0 2015 1 19 35 43 1.18 0.0 2015 1 20 30 41 0.00 0.0 2015 1 21 24 34 0.00 0.0005 2015 1 22 29 40 0.0005 0.0005 2015 1 23 20 42 0.00 0.0 2015 1 24 33 36 0.00 4.0 4 2015 1 25 27 44 0.83 0.0 3 2015 1 26 23 27 0.00 5.0 2 2015 1 27 15 24 1.64 10.0 15 2015 1 28 15 30 0.00 0.0005 14 2015 1 29 13 36 0.00 0.0 13 2015 1 30 19 36 0.02 0.8 13 2015 1 31 12 26 0.02 0.0 12 2015 2 1 7 40 0.00 0.4 12 2015 2 2 16 32 0.00 7.9 14 2015 2 3 8 27 1.06 0.0 16 2015 2 4 9 42 0.00 0.0 15 2015 2 5 13 37 0.0005 0.9 13 2015 2 6 5 28 0.05 0.0 13 2015 2 7 8 34 0.00 0.0005 13 2015 2 8 24 39 0.0005 0.0 12 2015 2 9 22 25 0.00 0.3 12 2015 2 10 23 37 0.06 0.0005 12 2015 2 11 17 31 0.00 0.0 11 2015 2 12 16 41 0.00 0.2 11 2015 2 13 8 22 0.01 0.0 10 2015 2 14 4 33 0.00 1.5 10 2015 2 15 4 26 0.07 0.0 12 2015 2 16 1 19 0.00 0.0 11 2015 2 17 9 24 0.00 4.0 15 2015 2 18 6 31 0.20 0.0 14 2015 2 19 8 24 0.00 0.0005 13 2015 2 20 1 19 0.0005 0.0 12 2015 2 21 -2 32 0.64 3.5 12 2015 2 22 28 42 0.30 0.9 14 2015 2 23 8 34 0.00 0.0 13 2015 2 24 -1 23 0.00 0.0005 13 2015 2 25 10 39 0.0005 0.0 13 2015 2 26 21 27 0.00 0.0005 12 2015 2 27 17 29 0.0005 0.0 12 2015 2 28 12 30 0.00 0.0 12

You may have seen this long ago, but the lead article about the central park observatory is an interesting read: https://www.weather.gov/media/coop/newsletter/19coop-spring.pdf

Do you consider a "benchmark storm" synonymous with a KU? I think there can be future disagreements about cause and effect with regard to the association between such a storm and higher winter snowfall (which you seem to have defined as over 25 or 30"). I'm not talking about years like 1983 and 2006 which clearly fit with your preferred scenario. It's interesting and worthwhile to discuss these associations, but sometimes they seem a bit forced. I also think Central Park is not a good test case with the data challenges that have been well documented there.

This morning's snow clearing shenanigans: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTG0DRUCCVW/?igsh=MTRsN3l5MXN1MzJiaA==

And you say he got there from Williamsport on just a quarter bale of hay?

FWIW, my backyard sensor had 0° on 1/4/2014 (snow depth was 8"). Then we hit 50 on the 5th and 58 on the 6th after which we repeated the whole cycle (6° on the 7th, 59° on the 11th). Following that we had constant snow cover of at least 2" from January 23 through March 10 (max 20" on February 16 and February 18). March was cold, but the snowstorms stayed down in the mid Atlantic or that winter could have rivaled 1996 for snowfall. Other 0° days IMBY: -2 2/21/2015 -1 2/24/2015 -2 2/14/2016 Close but no cigar: 1° 1/7/2018 3° 1/31/2019 3° 2/4/2023 The last time we had single digits at my site was 6° on 1/23/2025