NorthShoreWx

Local perception. Montgomery is down towards central NJ

Looks like a little sound effect snow trying to fire up along the SE Connecticut coast. Winds are west to southwest at the moment. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad#

Mixed precip

Of the mesos available on TT, FV3 and RGEM seem to have the best handle on where there is precipitation right now (18z). Both give a coating to most of us this afternoon. Not saying I believe it, but they are off to a good start.

Manhasset Bay Live: https://baycam.manhassetbayyc.org:37777/view/view.shtml?id=288&imagepath=%2Fmjpg%2Fvideo.mjpg&size=1

The water at Kings Point is either right at the freezing point (for western LI Sound salinity) or already frozen. Bridgeport and New Haven are getting close: https://www.weather.gov/okx/Marine_Obs.html

No thanks. There's enough of you doing that already. My point was, that's far from a clear swing and a miss signal.

Do they still dump it in the river?

It's implied. Personally, I find the actual QPF maps more helpful at this timeframe.

That's a lot of QPF for an ensemble mean 5 days out.

I'd be more worried about ice damming than structural issues, unless your house is framed with balsa wood. Based on the temperature forecast and the amount of snow on my roof, I am worried about ice damming.

I'm going to have to check, but I'm not sure if I've ever had more than 10:1 (if that) in a 10" or greater snowfall. It might be a consequence of being surrounded by water, and sometimes the wind.

Yes. The SWE from this one might be high percentile for local snowstorms. Took me and my son about 3 hours to shovel the driveway.

North Smithtown, NY Storm Total 11.4" LE: 1.90" from melted core (4" gage catch was 1.33") Season total to date 28.4"