NorthShoreWx

40/29 here. Can't rule out a couple of raindrops initially, but I suspect the north shore starts as snow.

I go with greater than 50% coverage >= 1", but that's highly subjective. Sometimes if it seems to meet that criteria but looks wrong, I'll call it a trace. Pretty sure I am a lot less restrictive than airports. Anyone else notice how fast they go to zero snow cover while all around them is still buried? I think as soon as a bare spot is visible, they call it a trace or something like that.

19⁰ min this morning. Up to 37⁰ now with a SE breeze.

It's like the pizza. Halfway decent, but its better on LI

This model needs to be euthanized now. All surfaces covered. Heavy heavy snow; visibility less than a mile.

We will get nam'd at 18z. Thereafter it will converge on a more reasonable solution. A bit of blowing snow Sunday afternoon/evening will be a culture shock.

Sure do. That's funny; I came within a hair of sending you this same photo yesterday. A classic!

Have a great time. Hopefully I can join another one of these in the future. Was a blast in the past. Ironically, we're hosting friends from MA this weekend.

Winter is back! The usual optimists serial posting snow maps and the usual boo-birds throwing hot water all over them. That's what I'm talking about; bring it on!

Looks nice in Kingston.

I've always agreed with all of this. I just don't see it as settling the main question

I'm at the reststop a few miles north of 84 on the Thruway. A little slush in the parking lot, but highway still wet. Nice to see it snowing though. Saw a little white rain mix not too many miles west of the river, then to very wet snow north of Suffern. Snowing nice here and close to freezing. It went from 50 in lower Westchester to 43 at the TZ. This would have been a fun ride without the traffic in the Bronx and lower WC.

I'm heading up to Kingston for an event this evening. I assume the thruway will be no worse than wet. Any intelligence to the contrary?

This response is about my perception of the usefulness of that graph. When I look at that data series, I see a series of ups and downs in an overall declining trend for much of the period, but that trend reversed in the past several decades. This chart gives me no confidence to predict what comes next The most obvious answer about how it is misleading is that the straight line on the graph represents a non-linear series. If we were to start the data series at 1980, it would be an increasing trend, not decreasing. Another way to look at it is that if extrapolating the trend lines forward there is a high probability of it being wrong. Anecdote: I literally ran a regression using the same data back in school in 1982 (using NYC snowfall 1870 - 1980). I wish I still had the greenbar it was printed on; that would be a trip. Extrapolating the line forward indicated that NYC snowfall was decreasing and would have fallen to zero prior to the present time. Considering 1980 to 2025 to be a short term trend and 1869 to 2025 to be a long term trend is subjective. Snowfall in the 1700s may have been higher than in the 1800s, but years prior to that may have been lower than it is now. There was a lesser amount of warming prior to 1980, and snowfall changes in that period were more likely "natural variations", yet figure prominently in the existing trend line. Personally, I don't know if snowfall is or isn't rising. I am confident that winters have gotten warmer. Warmer winters leading to less snowfall in our region seems intuitive, but so far we haven't seen any actual evidence. Edit: I just found the old greenbar printout mentioned. Damn, I saved a lot of old stuff.

The trend line is misleading. It compares the past couple of years to the 1800s. What does that look like if you start the chart in 1980?