Caveman

Even if 25% verified, will be some heartache with high water Super Bowl weekend when temps spike with another 1" of precip...

Central PA...NYC is spit away and here is the screenshot from the model output...

Looks like the NAM told DeBlasio the atmosphere will not cooperate with his charge to re-open NYC this week!

The "B" in Miller B represents "bitch" of a prognostication...

Way too far in time and space...HRRR is excellent with convection within 6 hours of initialization...not with synoptic physics of the atmosphere...IMHO

I was just up to Towanda yesterday and there was very little to no ice in the river. Ice dams should not be a concern. Obviously they do have quite a snowpack up in that region however which is not good with these high dew points and mild temps!

Etters, PA (northern York County)...9" total with a liquid equivalent of 0.98". Had light sleet and very light snow for several hour period from about 6-10 pm or so. Just not nearly as much precip fell as was being modeled by numerical guidance. This storm very much underperformed for northern York County. To be sure it was a good snow event and it's very wintry (and pretty) outside, but it most certainly was not what was being touted in terms of a winter storm of major proportions...Side note; the official observation at KMDT (9.3" as of midnight) for one of the few times had a greater snowfall than I am reporting!

The mail is being delivered here in Etters! 4"+ and visibility about 1/8 mile...

+SN for last hour, Etters, PA and very wintry. These old bones say "It's cold"!

Use Sterling, Dover, SC and then extrapolate...as an "old fart", I think the radar products are simply amazing!

During the March 1993 event, sleet mixed in during the "height" of the storm with strong NE winds and lightning/thunder at that point. So as per your analysis of the model HRRR, look for sleet and thunder and gusty winds around 8-10 pm ish...the stronger and deeper this low gets, expect sleet well inland and convective properties including charge separation and high rates of precip. It will be interesting to be sure!

+SN here in Etters. Began to bring it about 11:30 am EST...

That greater radar reflectivity could indicate sleet mixing in which is the time frame of that most likely occurring...still likely one for the books!

Hello all...I was wondering if anyone knows about the MAD WEATHER Teleconnections website? Has it been moved to a different web address or has it been discontinued? It was very helpful and one I often looked to during the cold season. Any insights would be greatly appreciated!

Rock and Roll!

I'm talking Sunday's event...today's radar is a bit of a bottom feeder...

500 mb PV digging strong...

Thanks so much...he's a solid earthling observer!

I do not know how to access that data...? Freezing drizzle...0.01"?

By the way...where has "Cashman" been...? I would've like to seen his obs from earlier today?

What you describe is exactly what COULD occur Sunday...especially with height falls right over PA digging towards a deepening surface LP...but my concern is no HP north of us in realistic terms. My forecast mantra; predict the high; predict he snow! Isn't this fun? Helluva lot better than Netflix or whatever people do today...I'm listening to kick ass tunes, reading you guys opines, and studying the models...since my dogs are now asleep...GOOD STUFF!

In all honesty, I believe the snowfall rates will be hard pressed to reach what we did last night here between 2-3 am....it just flat out dumped snow...awesome! My dogs went out and quickly came back to the house...and they are not snowflakes!

When I saw all of the precip with the Sterling radar, I immediately thought oh no for Sunday...that water vapor energy will translate away from our area. Agree...the equations are simply for frozen precip...go K for rip/read...as for developing LP, seek the temp gradient...that's a shitload of precip across MD...love the meteo!

The NAM by 4 am tomorrow...I'm not so sure...