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Caveman

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Everything posted by Caveman

  1. In all honesty, I believe the snowfall rates will be hard pressed to reach what we did last night here between 2-3 am....it just flat out dumped snow...awesome! My dogs went out and quickly came back to the house...and they are not snowflakes!
  2. When I saw all of the precip with the Sterling radar, I immediately thought oh no for Sunday...that water vapor energy will translate away from our area. Agree...the equations are simply for frozen precip...go K for rip/read...as for developing LP, seek the temp gradient...that's a shitload of precip across MD...love the meteo!
  3. Here is a "new" line for accumulating snows instead of the Turnpike or I-81...The Appalachian Trail! For Friday night's event, SE of the AT will see greater accumulations than to the NW...but Sunday is a different story...either way, winter will not quit with lows close to "0" under clear skies and calm winds next week and snow covered grounds! I have lived here all my life and without going through the official records, I remember only ONE time where temps in March went below "0" and that was with the passage of superstorm 1993! Not thinking it will this week...but it has a chance!
  4. Should've purchased them on StubHub walking up to the stadium...though there will be many MIKE TROUT fans there...easiest MLB ticket this year, sorry to say the Baltimore Os
  5. I've attended MLB for years; as a kid to Memorial Stadium seeing all of the classics...including Frank R...Then it was the new VET...and PHilly Sillies...until they got good! Of course, off to PSU when they won 1980! Torn in 1983! I'd get together and venture to either venue; anytime...
  6. That Sterling radar is juiced...and that spells a real concern for those hoping for big amounts Sunday...water vapor is energy; lose it and there will be less QPF for the next wave...And FWIW, the NWS radar loops on my computer are not fully operational, but on my mobile Radarscope...fully functional! Anyone else?
  7. NWS is a governmental organization. Machs nichts they get it right or wrong...they are funded! But the mainstream society buys it ALL hook, line, & sinker! Study the atmosphere, study the history, experience the previous wx events, forecast as best you can...models are GUIDANCE! Just sayin'...
  8. Still much uncertainty for Sunday-Monday event...total precip spread is vast!
  9. As y'all know...gotta smell the rain to get the greatest snow! #baroclinicity
  10. Tad over 4" here with 0.37" liquid equivalent...Valley Green, Northern York County.
  11. Used to be an avid backpacker...and we did a weekend jaunt from Poe Valley over to RB Winter. It was about this time of the year. The south facing mountains were doable/bare. The north facing sides were glaciers! We had to slide down several with our packs under us...unreal. Saw some old timer at his cabin down near the tunnel at Cherry Run and he told us..."worst ice I've ever seen in my life here"! And it was a dense glacier to be sure! I'm not quite sure of the year, but I want to say 2001 or 2002?
  12. 1.59” Liquid with ~4” frozen stuff before changeover last night. Valley Green, northern York County. Will most decidedly have a glacier on the property for quite awhile I do believe...
  13. It's a slight difference based on synoptics...but the deep low over eastern O Canada certainly is driving cold directly to these parts! Clear, calm, crisp; was eerily cold that morning!
  14. That's a nice summary! Who produces that for you? If you cannot divulge, no worries...
  15. It's pretty simple...the race is on! Get the high to the east of the low...bingo; front row! Otherwise, see y'all next week!
  16. Gotta love warm advection overrunning snows with moderate dew points to the SW...love the meteorology!
  17. NAM surface low is taking I-64 to the coast vs the I-79 to I-68 route...Predict the high; predict the cold to hold...
  18. Front thump, pinger pounder, then glaze galore. Maybe a tad of powder on the backside, but that seldom materializes in these parts. 1030-1040+ across S Canada to the maritimes, and with a tad less phasing, this will be one ugly situation for KMDT and vicinity. Cold will likely hold at the surface. I've seen it before many times...and God willing, I'll see it many times yet with my time on this earth.
  19. My thermometer that morning (outside and sheltered) hit -28F and then proceeded to do a 1 hour walk about...it was surreal! The snow was dry; everything was "crunchy"...nothing I've really experienced before and likely not again. Dead calm air and very quiet. I remember everything being just so brittle and "crunchy"...
  20. Probably too much downsloping for KMDT, but it would be nice to get to 20". I'm at moderate snow again with strong gusts with current shower passing through.
  21. I fully understand that synoptically 1993 and 2017 were not the same; similar, but not the same. Had the 500 mb low been a bit faster, maybe things would have turned out even more robust with snow accumulations further inland. But I remember a good hour of sleet and liquid drops falling during the lightning and thunder in 1993, at the height of the storm, when I was in New Cumberland, and review the maps as to where that center of low pressure tracked. I had ~20" with the 1993 storm even with the sleet/rain. Today, without any sleet or liquid, I still managed 18"+, "weaker" low pressure, without the lightning/thunder (and I believe the winds will increase overnight) so this system is one at the least for "my" books!
  22. No kidding! All Weather did a nice job communicating his thoughts and forecasts to the general public and frankly, was spot on! In order to forecast here in the LSV and our proximity to both the Atlantic and even the bays, one has to have lived here and experienced this chaos over a lifetime...and then some. My location is just to the SSW of KMDT, and I never once had sleet today. Although I haven't yet made my final ob for liquid or snow accum, I'm about 0.30" less than KMDT for liquid, but my ratio was slightly higher leading to greater accums of snowfall. The same with York County. The southern part of the county has much less than up here. That's what makes the LSV such a challenging place to forecast; frankly all of PA is difficult to forecast as the northern part of the state is in a different climatic zone than here in southern PA. The Harrisburg area is kind of like the Worcester region of MA, with lesser snows as the systems are not totally matured at our latitude. The proximity to the ocean is a good news/bad news situation. Just a few miles towards the coast from Worcester and voila, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain. The Berkshires get some hefty snows from these coastal systems...
  23. As long as that saturated 700 mb stays over central PA, and with the advancing 500 mb height falls, there will still be a likelihood of snow and showers of snow right through the evening. Just now real low level jet to help out...a wintry day for sure!
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