michsnowfreak

Even the euro, by far the warmest of the seasonal models for the northern US & Canada, is much cooler in western and southern Canada this winter, which is always a good sign for good periods in the northern US.

HIGHLY doubt we will be >+7F this winter (Nov a slight possibility). Yes, the 3 instances of warm Novembers led to warm winters, but the moral of the story is there is no overall correlation. There have been more cold than warm Novembers lately (8 of the last 12 were colder than avg), so its not an even playing field. A better way of looking at it... 2023: Near avg November led to very mild winter 2022: Mild November led to very mild winter 2021: Cold November led to near avg winter 2020: Very mild November led to near avg winter 2019: Very cold November led to very mild winter 2018: Very cold November led to near avg winter 2017: Cold November led to cold winter 2016: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2015: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2014: Very cold November led to very cold winter 2013: Very cold November led to very cold winter 2012: Cold November led to mild winter 2011: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2010: Mild November led to very cold winter EDIT- For the hell of it, I ran the top 20 coldest & warmest Novembers... Of the top 20 coldest Novembers, 6 of the winters were milder than avg, 14 were colder. Of the top 20 warmest Novembers, 10 of the winters were milder than avg, 10 were colder

The Euro is the warmest seasonal forecast in the north, but also their forecast is always far too broadbrushed (almost more like a probability forecast). The cfs/cansips are much colder in the north. As for precip, cansips seems to be the driest for the east coast. Cfs/euro aren't too bad.

That November was one of the warmest on record....then we had a snowstorm on Thanksgiving.

Initially I was thinking we were due for a more frontloaded winter, especially as those can happen in Ninas, but with latest trends Im actually liking December less and January more.

Detroits avg November snowfall is 1.9" and we have not had a below avg snow November since 2017. Snowflakes at some point in November are very common but big snows are very rare. Not thinking it's a December to remember but as climo cools rapidly, if this projected wet winter pattern starts to develop, could have some fun times (thinking Jan/Feb are more fun than Dec).

Thanks! To further clarify, I'm not saying this winter will be cold. Just that if it's mild, it'll have nothing to do with the fact that November was very mild lol. I do think the end result will be milder than avg but not crazy. Im definitely liking the big cold that's forecast to build into canada once winter gets going, but it does look like right now, once again December will be the least wintry of the 3 winter months (not that their won't be any fun in December, just looks least favored). Going back to 2010, you can see how commonly the winter did NOT remember November lol. Nov 2023: -0.1F Winter +6.4F Nov 2022: +2.1F Winter +5.0F Nov 2021: -1.8F Winter -0.4F Nov 2020: +4.5F Winter +0.3F Nov 2019: -5.4F Winter +3.8F Nov 2018: -4.1F Winter +0.5F Nov 2017: -0.8F Winter -1.1F Nov 2016: +5.5F Winter +4.1F Nov 2015: +4.8F Winter +5.1F Nov 2014: -5.4F Winter -5.1F Nov 2013: -3.7F Winter -8.5F Nov 2012: -0.8F Winter +2.3F Nov 2011: +5.4F Winter +4.6F Nov 2010: +0.8F Winter -4.3F

I dont know which winter it was as I dont remember either being hyped up. 2018-19 winter was close to avg temp-wise. Youre probably thinking of 2019-20. We started at Detroit with the biggest November snowstorm on record (9.2" on Nov 11th) and then saw the earliest single digit temperature on record (Nov 13th)....and then proceeded to have the 11th warmest winter on record. Ive said it a hundred times but if need be Ill say it a hundred more - what happens in November has NOTHING to do with what will happen in winter. Historically there is no correlation. The past decade, theres actually been a very strong correlation to the weather pattern of November being OPOSITTE of what winter ends up bringing. But again, its a total toss up.

I'd rather see a cold winter of DJF -8 to -12 (similar to 2013-14 or 2014-15) that has the extremist agenda pushers of cc squirm because of the general public's reaction. I recall in Feb 2015 when record smashing cold poured into the upper midwest and east a few on this board (no memory of who it was) had meltdowns because even though most of the world was warmer than average, the coldest anomalies on the globe were in the US and they were freaking that it would cause normies to mock cc.

Im not a golfer, but I assume as long as there isn't snow on the ground, you can golf.

Quite a few frosts here too, some heavy. Dtw official low has been 33, it's unbelievable they didn't drop below freezing on 10/23 considering all nearby stations were in the 20s, but that's what concrete at an airport will do.

It means the weather models are back to their normal winter hours

January, already the coldest climo month of the year, has the coldest anamolies of any month in the northern tier on both cansips and cfs.

Is that spot in southeast Ohio the most extreme color on the drought monitor?

With a mild November in store, hoping we get a taste of winter around Thanksgiving. Considering the odd mismatch the past decade of cold, snowy Novembers and mild low snow Decembers, wouldnt mind a mild November if we get some fun times in December. Love to see a bit of a reversal this year.

Interesting as that doesn't quite match with the wxbell cansips. In any event. Not a bad look here. And even for most of the Northeast that's only +1-1.5°C

Lol well I meant climo wise. The decline of average temperature during November is greater than any month of the year (also greater than the rise of any month of the year, though May is fairly close). While I personally am ready for snow, I'm fine with a mild November. Locally weve seen more cold than mild Novembers the last decade.

The CFS was actually quite steady on a mild November.

Happy November all. Really is when North America starts descending into winter. Not sure about every place, but here in Detroit and most other midwest/Lakes areas, no month of the year has a larger difference in average temperature from the first to last day of the month than November. The next closest is May.

Happy November! November really is the North American descent into winter. At Detroit, no month of the year has a larger difference in average temperature from the first to last day of the month than November. The next closest is May.

No flakes here, but we are due for some no-flake Octobers. Historically its a 50/50 chance, but 9 of the last 13 seasons have seen the first flakes in October at DTW.

Hes an agenda troll. Marquette clearly has missing data from the 1960s, just as Toledo did in the graph he posted. The snowiest winter on record for the Keewenaw Peninsula in the U.P. (an even snowier local than MQT) is actually the very cold winter of 1978-79 with like 380". The freezing of Lake Superior is a different beast than that of the other Great Lakes. The 1960s were much colder winters than the mild 1950s, but the real cold winters decade was the 1970s. Marquettes snowfall is taken outside of the city in Negaunee, an area that is actually MUCH snowier than the city itself. very micro-climatey there. Not sure if those 1960s numbers werent in Negaunee but rather in the city itself, or if it was just missing data.

This makes it 2 straight snowy Halloweens in Minneapolis. Last Halloween was snowy in Detroit, this one is warm and windy.

I think they go by both names.

Last year was even worse. Multiple runs showed all time highs of 108-110°, and instead for the first time in 108 years Detroit failed to pass 90°.