michsnowfreak

Exactly. This is the hostile pre-Jan 20 pattern. I expected chances thru Jan 20 but the cold will wait til late Jan into Feb. A rain ending as snow scenario would be ok i guess lol

Beavis' doppelganger lol? The winter you describe sounds more like an average Kentucky winter than a Chicago winter. The midwest has some of the most changeable weather in north America. Edit - you must be south of Chicago if last 6"+ storm was 2015

The 1st 2 to 3 weeks of January have looked hostile for some time now, so that's not going to change. We still may sneak in some storms in that timeframe however, and I do feel it does turn more favorable later in January and into February. That said, don't be surprised if a 9" snowstorm ends up being the largest of the Winter regardless of how snowy of a period you end up getting.

One thing I've learned is that Winter's come a while they may have things in common with other winters, are like snowflakes. No 2 are the same. There were certainly a trio of harsh winters in the late 1970s, but as the whole, we've seen everything. I noticed that 1950s winters in the Great Lakes tended to have November and March snowstorms and often lots of mild spells during the heart of actual Winter.

Lol nah, it really has not rained much is just been boring.

I've been to the rockies and they are beautiful, but I love going to the UP in Winter. Not to mention it is cheaper lol

This has already felt like an East Coast Winter of sorts. We had a big snowstorm in November when 8 to 12" fell in metro Detroit, and since then very little. Obviously on paper we still had far more flakes and dustings than a typical East Coast Winter, but the overall feel is the same. Id prefer my more steady dose of 1-3/2-4/3-6 snows anytime over a big storm followed by zzzz. I agree that 1 massive storm does not make a great Winter, however the irony is there used to be quite a contingent of people in this region on this forum who disliked our gray winters full of nuisance snow after nuisance snow, and instead preferred one huge storm then nothing (or so they said). You would think that moving forward if any pattern was conducive of a big dog, it's this one, with se ridge pumping warm air to our south and east and the cold building to the north and west. Certainly not saying its happening, just saying the chances are probably better than usual. I do feel it turns much colder later in January into February, hopefully we get into one of our good old cold clipper regimes. It will be very refreshing to see the complaints change to those of suppression

No doubt there will probably be fluke events, but as you said, pointless than expecting anything until it's 2 days or less out. The models seem extra up-and-down this year. Once the ridge starts moving further East, it seems as if the Great Lakes are in a bit of a battle zone, do you think that bodes well for a possible big winter storm?

Thanks for the update. For a bit now I've been kind of feeling that it was going to be a repeat of last year with the mild holding until late January when it turns much colder, and then last in to February. No doubt some will luck into some snow during the mild period, but it will not be fun times and the weather boards until the last third of the month lol

I do think that later January into February will be wintry, plus the UP already has good snow. I will be going up there in February as usual.

I just ran those calculations myself. I used this website. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org It is an excellent tool for climate data, you can look up all the climate data for your local area. For official stations, it will say "Detroit area", that means it keeps up with when the official site moves places. Otherwise you can also search by individual station of course.

The past 2 decades have averaged almost 16" more per season at Detroit than during its mid 20th century low point in the climate record (1930-1969). In fact most places saw mild winters with less snow than long term averages during the 1930s-50s ( Detroit's problem in the 1960s was lots of misses, the Winters turned colder with better snow cover than the prior 30 years). As you would expect, with the increase in snowfall, there have been some more impressive snow depths as well. We would need to start having a string of low snow seasons to start lowering our average back down to the long term average, and a whole lot of stinkers to get to the low point of the mid 20th century. If we manage to ever hit that point, which seems extremely unlikely now, then we need to lose another 14 or 15" annually to become St Louis. In other words, not worried about that in my lifetime lol.

I disagree 100%. The thought of Detroit/Chicago becoming St Louis is laughable. Detroit consistently averages 6-8F colder than STL which means Chicago colder than that (DTW gets slight modification from Lake MI). Detroit just saw its snowiest decade on record, and records go to the 1870s. With snowfall on an Increasing trend and temps holding relatively steady, I have a hard time believing my snowfall is going to decrease 65% and my temps warm 7F or 8F in a decade or two Please see below for the decadal snow averages for Detroit, St Louis, and Memphis. The 1960s stick out like a sore, snowy thumb in Memphis, and the just completed 2010s averaged snowier than the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1990s, and 2000s in Memphis. Comparing trends to the cold and/or snowy winters of the 1960s/1970s which were the exception, not the rule, at nearly all locations, is like me holding 2013-14 to the standard of being a "decent" winter. S N O W F A L L Detroit - St Louis - Memphis 1890s – 42.7” - 18.6” - 9.0” 1900s – 46.3” - 20.5” - 3.8” 1910s – 39.7” - 25.7” - 8.5” 1920s – 46.1” - 13.1” - 2.9” 1930s – 32.9” - MM - 2.8” 1940s – 27.6” - 16.9” - 2.1” 1950s – 37.8” - 12.9” - 2.8” 1960s – 31.8” - 20.6” - 9.2” 1970s – 45.6” - 26.3” - 4.7” 1980s – 45.2” - 21.0” - 5.6” 1990s – 37.2” - 17.3” - 1.8” 2000s – 45.5” - 16.3” - 3.0” 2010s – 49.9” - 18.0” - 3.1” For reference, here are DJF TEMPS Detroit - St Louis - Memphis 1880s: 27.2 - 33.2 – 42.4 1890s: 26.9 - 35.0 – 43.9 1900s: 25.1 - 33.3 – 42.5 1910s: 25.5 - 33.1 – 42.2 1920s: 26.7 - 34.9 – 44.0 1930s: 28.1 - 34.6 – 44.6 1940s: 27.0 - 33.1 – 42.1 1950s: 28.5 - 34.8 – 44.0 1960s: 26.5 - 31.6 – 40.8 1970s: 24.6 - 30.5 – 41.8 1980s: 26.3 - 32.9 – 42.4 1990s: 28.7 - 35.4 – 44.5 2000s: 27.8 - 34.8 – 43.9 2010s: 28.2 - 35.1 – 44.1

Knowing that 2013-14 was the severest winter on record for Detroit, I had to look up Chicago, as while December here was the "wimpiest" of the 3 winter months it was still wintry. Chicago had a mean temp in Dec of 2013 of 23.3, which is 4.4° below avg. THAT is obnoxiously mild?

There's so much left of this Winter though, very hard to dictate if it's going to end up being a big stinker or not. We have luckily been able to avoid the huge sucky years, outside of 2011-12, so hopefully we keep on keeping on. The stat guy I am I has a new idea now lol, I'm going to try and look up what were the suckiest back-to-back winters.

Considering up to yesterday all that was showing for the weekend was rain and no snow, I will consider any snow a plus.. I feel that this entire month is going to be full of weather surprises and disappointments.

Saturday may still produce some snow, which actually kind of snuck up just the other day lol.

13th coldest November and 18th warmest December. (Also the 4th snowiest November and 21st least snowy December).

That's how it almost always is & not just with big dogs. The stuff that is tracked for a long time usually underwhelmed, and the good stuff often sneaks up..

Just so I'm not confused, which storms are you referring to? There's a lot of activity on the models for different days.

Jokes aside of the model changes every 6 hours, you have to like where we sit going forward in January rather than being South, and those north/northwest of us like where they ait more than us. Gut says February will be more of a suppression/clipper month.

I was going to say, 8 days without Sun is the 4th longest stretch on record? My oh my lol Michigan says hold my faygo.

This is an excellent post. I am one of those who does not mind cold and dry at all IF, and IF being the key word, there's a nice snowpack in place. I was one of those crazies taking a Winter walk last year in 40 below Windchills. That said, obviously a stormy scenario is the preference. And what everyone has to remember as we get deeper into Winter, January and February being our harshest Winter months, is that when we look at the long range maps we don't necessarily want to see a sea of dark blues over us. That may be something the mid Atlantic wants, but not the Great Lakes. Ready to roll the dice and see how January plays out, but after a very boring stretch of December I'm sure most are happy to hear that active looks to be on the table.

Not surprisingly, the 2010s ended up as the snowiest decade on record for Detroit! Average snowfall per decade: 1880s- 45.5” 1890s- 42.7” 1900s- 46.3” 1910s- 39.7” 1920s- 46.1” 1930s- 32.9” 1940s- 27.6” 1950s- 37.8” 1960s- 31.8” 1970s- 45.6” 1980s- 45.2” 1990s- 37.2” 2000s- 45.3” 2010s- 49.9”

Happy New Year to you! And yes, let January start where November left off lol.