michsnowfreak

Pics of the beautiful snow at the park earlier, then a much soggier look this evening

It snowed beautifully during the morning before turning into a sloppy rain/snow mix during the afternoon. Picked up 1.5" of snow both in imby & DTW. Actually turned to very light rain for several hours during the evening and now it's back to very light snow. The heavy slush on the ground is just under an inch deep now from the compaction. We've missed anything noteworthy however it is quite unusual to have already had our 3rd measurable snowfall by November 15th. Only bad thing about thrusting into Winter so early is that my mindset is now complete Winter mode. I can try to remind it that it's 5 weeks before the Winter Solstice, but I doubt that works lol

We may see a good burst of snow here with several inches. Models still in disagreement. 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It goes in the pantheon of failure, along with 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02.  All of those winters had less than 6 inches of snow for us.

1972-73 and 2001-02 actually did ok snow wise here but were very warm winters. 1972-73 was actually a few inches above avg. 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

lol I looked at Islip, NY's snowfall tally in the NY subforum thread and Islip has had 36 or more inches of snow in 9 out of the last 10 seasons and 42 or more inches of snow in 8 out of the last 10 seasons.  The one year out of the last 10 when they didn't get to three feet of snow was 2011-12 when the total there was only 5.5"!

 

2007-08: 78.2"

2008-09: 64.8"

2009-10: 46.1"

2010-11: 69.3"

2011-12: 25.5"

2012-13: 47.7"

2013-14: 96.2"

2014-15: 48.5"

2015-16: 35.0"

2016-17: 41.6"

2017-18: 62.5"

I think the fact that it was basically 1 dud surrounded by good winters made it more tolerable. Avg is around 43"

9 hours ago, Chambana said:

FWIW for months CFS has been advertising a torch for December, last few runs have definitely trended much colder. Something to keep an eye on. 

The change in the warm-biased CFS was extremely abrupt.  Hopefully it stays. Definitely do not see any sustained warm up anywhere in sight

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2011-12 really sticks out like a sore thumb in a very snowy decade the only thing about that season was the aberration of an October snowstorm that snowed out Halloween.  It was all downhill after that!

Sore thumb is right. Only 2 of the past 11 winters have had below avg snowfall here....2015-16 was 8" below avg and 2011-12 was 17" below avg (at least DTW got 26"...i recall some east coast places were in single digits!). If thats not sticking out like a sore thumb idk what is!

On 11/4/2018 at 11:48 AM, RogueWaves said:

It does have that autumn '95 and '00 feel to it. Question is, can we sustain it after it gets here. 95-96 did a decent job of that, but 00-01 blew it's load on December, at which point it was basically over

95-96 was crap here lol. You want an early winter onset that went well into spring? Look no further than the historic winter of 2013-14!

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Indeed, it was the infamous DT.  

Don is bullish?  Well that is definitely more noteworthy.

Where do you see an outlook from don? I always like his analysis. If the type of Winter that they are hyping for the northeast comes to fruition the way they expect it to, it would imply to me colder than normal with near normal snow here and above avg snow in the ohio valley. Give me a clippery Winter with lots of snowcover and I'm happy.  I'm sure a big storm or 2 will be thrown in there somewhere. And until I see mother nature prove me otherwise with several sub par winters, it is hard to go against the snow trend here so I would probably go colder and snowier than normal for this area. Not blockbuster but snowy.  Unless there are raging signs of a crap Winter I will be going average or above for snow. Just 2 of the last 11 winters were below avg snow here! I'm oiling my magnet up for the season as we speak lol. 

11 hours ago, buckeye said:

You might have just jinxed yourself 

 I hope not lol

WOW. Over the last few days the CFS, by far the warmest seasonal model and one with a warm bias, has almost completely ditched its warm rest of November and December idea. I have never seen it change so suddenly and drastically. 

The 2nd snow event of the season kind of carved a similar path, accum-wise, as the first in southeast MI. I was kind of in the "screwzone" of both, though who can complain before mid-November lol? I finished with 0.6" of wet snow last night, which still made for pretty scenes. DTW had 0.7". Detroits north and west suburbs had 1-2", with isolated reports near 3". Season snowfall is 1.1" imby, 2.0" DTW, and as high as 4-6" in some northern burbs.

Looks like some snow tonight in Southern Michigan. 2nd measurable snowfall of the season before the midpoint of November, not bad.

7 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Crazy 95-96 was the best winter in NYC recorded history 

I was only 12-13 at the time and it was my 1st Winter measuring snow daily, I was just getting into the weather. What a disappointment it was lol. I finished with just 31.3" of snow, but 8 of those inches fell in Spring. This will now be my 24th winter measuring snow and the only 2 winters to see less than 95-96 were 1999-00 (29.3") and 2011-12 (25.5", my lowest on record). Average is low to mid 40s, and 5 of the last 11 years were in the 60s or greater (most 96.2" in 13-14).  So as you can imagine I do not even think of 95-96 lol

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm in the mountains of NE PA for the weekend and my pond froze over (only at the top though) and we had our first snowflakes of the season Friday and Saturday with snow squalls that coated everything with the sky only partly cloudy lol.

Wow 2013-14 for you was like 1995-96 for us and February 2015 was one of the coldest months on record for pretty much all of us.  Similar to February 1934 for here, except no -15 lows lol.

It feels like Winter. The wet snow Friday melted in the afternoon due to the warm ground but it fell to the low 20s Friday night with wind chills in the single digits so there were plenty of frozen puddles the next day along with another light dusting of snow. Once it starts, even though it's just a taste of Winter, I want no going back! More snow tonight.

2013-14 was such a severe Winter that i truly dont think we will ever see a repeat. It was genuinely like a winter in the upper peninsula of MI, not the Detroit area. Puts the storied late 1970s winters to shame. 1995-96 was a cold dry disaster here, probably the last winter i can remenber genuinely being in a repeated screw zone. Feb 1934 was cold but not as cold as 2015.  Its always interesting to me to see how some winters are equally good in the Lakes and new england and others are different. Im kind of on the eastern fringe of what's good for the Midwest and the Western fringe of what's good for the northeast lol, at least in terms of southern stream action. Thats why i skim this thread in addition to our lakes forum threads. Often good analysis!

6 hours ago, Chambana said:

Is anyone else concerned about the fast start to winter? Even the legendary winter of 2013-2014 didn’t start until the first week of December. 

 November 2013 had well below average temperatures here, however only a few light snows. Snowfall actually finished a few tenths of an inch below average, certainly not a precursor to the all time record snow fall that would occur over the next 4-5 months.  I've heard several forecasts calling for cold cold cold this Winter with the exception of a mile December. Who knows what will happen.

Lol it's 6 weeks before the Winter Solstice and the mayhem has already begun. I'm starting to model watch for possible snow tomorrow night and they're all on different pages for here. Ill take nam.

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

 

I'm with ya! Low temp early in the night was 9 degrees, then flurries and clouds moved in.  After the storm and hard blow, noticed portions of the roof have 2'+ drifts already.   "Winter is here again oh lord"

Starting the Winter long snowcover the 2nd week of November is certainly not uncommon up there, but is it unusual to have this much snow this early?

Yesterday's low got to 23ﾟat DTW under overcast skies strong winds and flurries. Can imagine the kind of lows this airmass would be capable of under clear calm conditions. The snow from Friday morning melted before the temp plunge but occasional flakes still floated through the air yesterday.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wouldn't mind that either.  I did like 2014-15 better around here because although the winter got off to a late start it was super snowy from Jan 20 - Mar 20.  2013-14 for us was frequent events with thaws in between while February 2015 was wall to wall snow and arctic cold.

2013-14 was a severe winter everywhere in the midwest and lakes but Detroit was ground zero. Snowiest winter on record, dethroning 1880-81, and one of the coldest on record as well. Wall to wall. A cold november with several light snows, but once the ground got covered in early December we would not go bare again till the end of March, snowbank's lasted in places till the beginning of May (ice up north on Lake superior did not melt until well into June). 2014-15 actually had a bigger storm (16.7" on February 1st), and a colder month (February which was either the coldest or 2nd coldest February on record at every Midwest climate station, the only one to challenge that was 1875), but winter as a whole was not nearly as severe as the year before. Other than that big storm, the snows were frequent but light. Not the parade seen on the east coast.

Extremes aside, while 6-12" storms are common, to get a storm over a foot here everything, and i mean EVERYTHING, has to go right. Perfect track and an unusual amount of moisture from the gulf. On the flip side, it snows in pretty much any pattern, so theres rarely a snowless pattern in place for more than a week in any winter. First measursble snowfall of the season yesterday, so now im in full winter mode. ❄❄❄

It was so nice to wake up to the massive silver dollar snowflakes falling. Snow fell for through mid-morning, and after a slushy 0.5" of about 3-1 ratio snow here to kick off the 2018-19 season, it actually turned to rain right along the water (east wind + early November). I am about 0.5 mile from the water, and 5 miles to my west remained all snow I took a drive and saw with my own eyes, not common to see that but at the same time no complaints in early November. DTW had 1.3". It looked like a very scenic snow north and west of the city. Some flurries flying in the cold winter wind right now.

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've seen that too, crazy thing is everything is either like 1-3" or 10"+ lmao, a midrange snow event is about as rare as a midrange jump shot in an NBA game.  Which brings up an interesting question, would most snowlovers like frequent moderate sized events or two or three total events for the entire winter of double digit totals?  If it's two I might just go for the more frequent moderate sized events, but if we're talking about three double digit events spaced nicely across the whole winter (like 1960-61 for us) I would go for that.

We get lots of midrange size snow events.  As someone who enjoys the length of Winter and all that encompasses the season, not to mention it's the climate I am used to, I have to go with frequent moderate sized events. I'm always jealous when a massive nor'easte slams the northeast, but  I would be lost without the frequency of snowfall we get in the Great Lakes lol.  The Winter of 2013-14 was the most severe Winter this area had ever seen, it was just a constant assault of one snowstorm after another, constant brutal cold, and never ending deep snowpack. Yet the biggest single storm that Winter was around a foot.

Thanks Roger. Will be working on this soon.

Enjoyed the end of peak/just past peak this past weekend. Not a lot of sun but when it came out it was gorgeous. Leaf cleanup season is here as winters first blast is on the way.

Pics from 11-3-18

11-7-18

23 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I hear you and raise you this hilarious CMC output from last night:

Obviously this was just some laughable model fluff (if only it weren't), but simply out of curiosity, has such a widespread event ever occurred in the history of this country?  

I remember quite a few storms that covered a ton of ground. Not those ridiculous totals, but good storms.