michsnowfreak

53 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Steady snow with decent flake sizes. Gonna be the top dog so far this winter

no way will this eclipse Dec 1st here. 

17 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

We need a repeat of the February 1965 snowstorm. 

20" locally. I'd gladly take it again. 

 That was one heck of a snowstorm apparently. The 1960s were not a good decade for big snowstorms locally, we missed most of the good ones. The blizzard of 1965 was by far the biggest storm of the decade, dropping 10-14" of snow (11" officially) and lots of drifting. 

steady light snow is making a perfect setting for an outdoor Christmas event i have tonight. 

59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just no cold air anywhere. Need the Pacific to cooperate. Always a chance in January, but December is pretty much toast for arctic air. 

Some of the cfs runs for January have had some insane cold. It's almost laughable. And that model tends to have a warm bias. It will be very interesting to see what transpires but id say the signal for cold is there.

10 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree completely. Boston got over 100" back in 2014-15 lol. Most of them big storms >15". They've been on a crazy run over the last 20 years which pales in comparison to some of our big winters i.e. 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. And yet despite all that, you should see some of the meltdowns in the New England forum lol. 

Yet were here pondering over storms like GHD 1, March 08 blizzard or Blizzard of 99 still. They've been exceeding seasonal averages with the exception of last year and 2011-12 for a long time. The day we start getting big blizzards like the Blizzard of 99 on a regular basis like some of these east coast folks, we shouldn't compare our petty 3-6" events. I'll take one of those big dogs every winter if that's all we get. And with our geographic location, we'll be able to retain that for a lot longer than them. 

Boston is wayyy better than NYC. A big dog is always better than anything else, there's no denying that. the very paltry snow amounts in between is why the east coast for a winter lover would suck from NYC south. Thats my take. Bostons run from late Jan to late Feb 2015 was unlike anything, even in a snowbelt. even that far north on the coast isn't all fun though...theyve also had 4 winters the last 20 years with 17" or less total snowfall. The past 2 winters COMBINED in Boston come out to an inch less than the yearly average, thats why you have New England meltdowns. every weenie regardless the climate is very "what have you done for me lately".

This is some impressive stuff right here...

Avg snowfall

Detroit 

1900-1999: 39.1"

2000-2020: 47.1"

Chicago 

1900-1999: 36.6"

2000-2020: 39.9"

New York City

1900-1999: 26.3"

2000-2020: 31.6"

Boston

1900-1999: 41.0"

2000-2020: 47.9"

32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nov 2014 88.5" of snow in 3 days. Finished with 212.8" that year.

Same winter as my big dog (17" Feb 1/2, 2015). A record amt of 6-12" storms the past decade, so no complaints...but exceeding a foot in a single storm is exciting stuff as its not common.

13 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

the Mets acting like the models.

fwiw cfs ensembles are run daily and can have insane run to run changes.

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As someone that experiences the big dogs, small dogs, and everything in between. 1000% give me the big dogs. My biggest dog

I am just seeing this picture now. That's amazing. December 2001? Of course big dogs are the best, but if you have to choose between  a steady diet of small and medium dogs every Winter versus a big dog every several years with potentially very little snow in between, consistency wins for me. My biggest dog is my favorite storm even though it was not the most ferocious or blizzardy of storms I've experienced. Your climate is great because you get the big storms from the Lake and sometimes the ocean, but you also get all the small and medium sized storms we get. Only downfall is your thaw/torch potential cutting down on snowpack. You may even make a C- on beavis scale lol

56 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

We've had this discussion many times. Only system snow gets my motor running. A true weather weenie would never take our climate over the northeast. I still dont get your obsession with crusty, yellow snowcover. I usually browse the site once a week in the winter. Nobody else will call you out on your turd polishing posts so I logged in lol. Everytime the northeast is about to get a good storm, you turd polish our awesome climate. It grinds my gears.I enjoyed these weather forums for awhile but the arrogance of the likes of the almighty weather god chicago storm and a few others turned me off. Hope all is well with you and i wish you good health josh ❤.

Just as it grinds my gears when you act as though all we get are 3-6 events, esp when the last decade has been great for 6+ and 10+ events. Maybe the slight increase in avg temperature is just what dr ordered for these to become more commonplace. a few bigger storms and a few less days of snowcover may be our future, who knows. Year round precipitation and snowfall has increased. im doing fine, good health to you as well.

16 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

In grasping at straws mode, but just looked at the 12z EPS, and heading into Christmas Eve and Day it does have a pretty interesting look, with a frigid cold trough dumping into the Plains and ridging out ahead into the east though still with a -NAO signal.

Surface pressure anomaly even hints at a surface trough over the southern Plains lifting into the lakes and an expansive high over the northern and central Plains. A few of the individual members as expected from the above hint at some potential in the region during that timeframe.

00z run wasn't too different so we'll see if any continuity develops in that timeframe. Also GEFS not crazy far off but not as potentially interesting as the EPS. While we could do a lot worse than that modeled pattern, need to get it within 10 days. The hope is that *if* a system does develop in that timeframe, the -NAO could help prevent warm cutter.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

 It does seem to all the ensembles have storminess around Christmas. Get ready for model mania.

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The biggest calendar day snow in NYC in winter 2019-20 was... 2.1".  A good place for big storms but it can't be counted on every winter.  Probably not even in Boston.

I frequently talk on Facebook with someone from Long Island, hes a fellow snow weenie.  Actually met him on the weather boards many years ago, but I don't think he posts here anymore.  Just as we are accustomed to our Great Lakes climate, he is accustomed to the East Coast climate. He would prefer frequent snow over big storms because he's a winter/cold lover. its all about preference.  The total snow last Winter was 4.8" and Each time it snowed it turned immediately to rain so while officially in the books New York City went down with 2 days of snow on the ground last Winter they weren't even 2 full days. Boston is much better than New York City but even there is a bit feast/famine, just less extreme. Worcester on into Northern New England is where its at. Just like our lakes snow belts. 

Speaking of snow belts... It is just crazy to see that there is bare ground in much of the UP still. Obviously snows will be coming but what Im wondering is will it be enough to negate the bad start from a depth perspective.  I consider mid February to early March the best time to go up North to see epic snow depths. 

40 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

NYC's snowfall average has gone way up over the last 20 years. I'm sure it's the same for surrounding areas. There was a time they used to get those 15"+ blizzards every few years but its become a yearly thing now, sometimes twice. So yeah, I'll take that any day over these petty 3-6" events. 

NYC hasn't had a measurable snow since Jan 18 and their forum has a thread dedicated to their first trace of snow. Sounds like the ultimate snow weenie lol. They have only had 1 storm of 15"+ since Feb 2011. I see how impatient this board got by a slow start in early December...i just can't see people dealing with that for years at a time just because eventually they will get a big storm. Their average did go up, but so did many other places. Frequency of 6"+ and 10"+ storms went up significantly here as well, so its not all petty 3-6 lol.

Since 2011, NYC has had 5 storms of 10"+ and Detroit has had 7 storms of 10"+. 

Detroit 2011-2020

Feb 1/2, 2011- 10.3

Feb 20/21, 2011- 10.2

Jan 1/2, 2014- 10.8

Jan 5/6, 2014- 11.0

Feb 1/2, 2015- 16.7

Dec 11, 2016- 10.7

Feb 9/10, 2018- 10.3

NYC 2011-2020

Jan 26/27, 2011- 19.0

Feb 9, 2013- 11.4

Jan 21/22, 2014- 11.5

Feb 14, 2014- 12.5

Jan 23/24, 2016- 27.5

53 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Normal people always remembers the big dogs, never the small dogs....

me, personally. I enjoy winter. I’ll take dozens of 5-10” events over one 20” event every 3-4 years and nothing in between. But that’s me. 

Agree.

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its been a minute since I posted on here but what a better time than to respond to a josh polishing detroit turd winter post. Its a famine climate in SEMI, where you'll be lucky to get one 10+ plus storm each winter. I think everyone on this board would give up the couple 4-8' yearly storms, perhaps go snow less 2-3 consecutive winters,  in return for that 24' plus storm. Kudos to you for still getting excited for 3-6' storm. I'd guess youre one of the few. Its okay to admit the northeast is the place to be for the ultimate snow weenie. 

of course its been a minute since you posted, because you only show up when the northeast gets a big storm, and its been years. I like winter. So yes, harddd pass on an east coast climate south of Boston. Last winter nyc had 2 days with snow on the ground and Philly and DC had 0. lmao. the ultimate snow weenie belongs in a lake snow belt. 

15 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Not meant to be hurtful. I hope Beavis continues to post on this board. Just thought it was unfortunate to have snowmobiling as a hobby in this area since it affords so few opportunities 

Also....Chicago just recently had 4 straight 50"+ seasons from 2007-08 thru 2010-11 (53-60") for the first time in 136 years of record. If beavis wants to have unrealistic standards, at least don't discredit the good that HAS qualified for his winter grading criteria. And what was so bad about winter 2018-19? Chicago got almost 50"and had temps of -30° in January lol. 

22 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later.

Its a feast or famine climate there. They are always prone to a whopper when the ingredients are just right (though this isn't going to be a 30" storm), and they haven't had one in several years. The last measurable snow in NYC? January 18th. I've tracked several storms here and had 25 days with measurable snow since Jan 18th lol.

22 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Josh, that looks like an old Coca-Cola Santa.

 

Yes I know! I collect vintage Christmas and decorate my house in lots of vintage Christmas. 

I decided to sign up for weatherbell, at least for the Winter. Such a cool website with so many things to play with lol. Having access to so much more has enhanced how ridiculously models change from run to run.  But the idea of a much colder January than December seems extremely likely.

9 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

07-08 I was a senior in high school. Southern lake county did very well, I remember a handful of snow days and early dismissals that year. Wish I kept an accurate measurement imby. 

From a snow perspective 07-08 was heaven but it was king of roller coaster, so I imagine beavis would be infuriated over wasting sdds despite all that snow. I had 78.2" of snow but only 60 days of 1"+ snowcover. Thats getting a surplus of 35" of snow but only 10 extra snowcover days.  I think one of the most anomalous winters the opposite way was 1947-48. Detroit only saw 26.8" of snow the entire season however 89 days with 1"+ snow cover. A snowfall deficit of 14" but a snow cover surplus of nearly 40 days. No major snowstorms however 2 big ice storms helped cement in the snow cover as a lot of the time it was cold and dry.

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Germany has been on my list for 3 years. Just never got the chance to go. One of my favourite places along with Switzerland. Definitely want to visit Berlin and Munich. My uncle lives near Dusseldorf. 

I did not know that. Perhaps I'll take a road trip to Ottawa near Christmas to try this poutine. Thanks for the heads up  

 Both Detroit and Chicago do outdoor German themed Christmas markets which are awesome. I've been to both. Unfortunately I doubt they will be doing them this year with everything going on

16 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Glad you've come to grips with punting December, for your own sanity.  But some of us haven't.  

Heck, I'm still furious about the first 10 days of December...and would still be furious even if things got better tomorrow.  December is a winter month; it should not be ok to waste it. Sure, maybe January will be ok...but who really cares at this point?  What consolation is that? 

 Unfortunately the extended looked terrible for December so honestly I punted it a while ago.  December actually started as a Winter wonderland here with over 4" of snow, however a little over 4 days later it was gone and it has been zzzz ever since

6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Since it is banter. Ive mentioned before that this winter has already been given a C because of its decent start for my backyard. However, Im pretty confused by all the optimism and goal post moving and doubling down on winter. Its Mid December and though winter is nowhere close to done, December looks zzzz so that means a lot of places will have to really start crushing it come January and February. At what date do we start to see more of the board throw in the towel? If in two weeks the long range still looks garbage? Mid January? 

I think I never liked "throw in the towel" because it's so subjective. Throw in the towel on what? Along, sustained Winter? In that case Early to mid January would be that towel being thrown. If we simply talking about getting some good snowstorms, I can't throw that towel for another 4 months. Im armed with way too much weather data on la nina winters to worry about mid December zzzs. 

Just now, IWXwx said:

Possibly, but the Euro also depicts the flow going zonal after mid-week and floods us with Pacific air, keeping the cold bottled up. It does hint at a wave crashing ashore at the end of the run. Could it be something to look forward to just in time for Christmas or just another rainer?

oh I'm referring to January being a solid winter month. December will be crap with some snow chances

1 hour ago, KokomoWX said:

Some fodder I caught from social media. It would be great if true...

We have the ingredients for a 1978-style blizzard this winter

I've heard a lot of talk about massive storm potential this winter. I can say this...I will be SHOCKED if the Midwest doesn't have a huge storm this winter. No bets on who the haves and have nots will be though.

7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I think you're taking this out of context.  Simply being "cold enough to snow" isn't good enough; it doesn't mean anything unless it produces consistently.  And it doesn't matter whether it can snow in Nov or April, if it doesn't stay on the ground.  Sure, it's a nice statistic, but would anyone honestly say that Nov or Apr is wintry just because it can snow on a few days during those months? 

What I (and others, probably) mean is a period where we actually get a decent amount of snow and retention, i.e., consistent winter.  In the past 4 winters, we've basically had 2-4 weeks of consistent winter - that's all.  In 2017-18, it was the 2 weeks around Christmas, where it was cold and we had decent snowfall...but the rest of the winter was crap.  In 2018-19, we had decent snow in late Jan followed by the cold outbreak at the end of the month...but the rest of the winter was crap.  And, in 2019-20, did we even have any winter at all?  If we did, it was just a 1-2 week period at most.  Not a good batting average, when DJF spans 13 weeks on the calendar.

2017-18 was for whatever reason way better here than Chicago. it was pretty much constant winter from early Dec to late Feb with a few blips. the cold snap of late Jan 2019 was incredible but otherwise a forgettable winter. Last year, the best period of winter was in November. snow/cold records fell like dominoes. Last winter we had avg snow but below avg snowcover. I use both stats, as I believe both are important. Very few besides you and me look at snowcover stats. 

it seems I give you a hard time but we really have a lot in common. id easily take a cold snowcover winter over a wild winter of heavy snowfall but not consistent snowpack.