michsnowfreak

Hot off the press from donsutherland.

Main takeaway: Winter 2018-19 remains on track to see above to much above normal snowfall in the Great Lakes Region, Middle Atlantic Region, and southern New England.

42 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I am in Michigan for the first time. On my way to Grand Rapids. Ive heard its a nice city !

Michigan is great and Grand Rapids is awesome. So wrong that theres no snow on the ground at this time.  The last 2 years had lots on the ground at this very time period

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think you are misunderstanding my post, we need them to have snow up north too else we won't have cold to work with no matter what the storm track is. That is a big ingredient to winter. hell there were times where we had decent storm track in 11-12 but had literally no cold air to work with. Not saying this winter is that winter but we need a cold source at some point.

I understand what you are saying and they will get snow up North. I think you kind of misunderstand my posting though also. It's a terrible look right now I just never get the comparisons to the warmest or most snowless Winter people can remember every time there's a bad pattern in place for a few weeks.  My reference as to how things are looking up is referring to the posts that many mets have been posting to in other suborums, and hinted at in this forum as well by Ricky and OHweather. Cold air seems to be on the way for January. Hell things could go sour with suppression, I just don't think a winter long torch is something we need to be worried about.

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

I don't think this is usual panic. especially since no one is getting snow, even the north country. We need snow there else there is no real cold source and you end up with situations like later on this week where we get a spectacularly favorable track for heavy snow and end up with rain.

The situation up North is even more dire than down here. Like I said in my above post there's no doubt that Winter is coming, the problem is with the North country having a snowless December that is a big Dent in the building of Winter snowpack. It can certainly be overcome but this is not the month that they want to lose up there. 

19 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Very different atmosphere in the MA forum winter thread.  Apparently the euro weeklies show a 09/10 snowmaggaedon Jan/Feb pattern, and JB is even calling it Jan/Feb 78esque....

That snowmaggaedon period between late Jan and mid Feb 2010 dumped something like 30" of snow here in cmh...so that wouldn't suck.

Winter not arriving until January in that region is pretty common so they probably figure what do they have to lose in December.  In our region Winter lasts a lot longer, so it's early start followed by a December absence is very irritating.  I have absolute 100% confidence that Winter is coming, that's not the issue. it's always silly to hear any kind of Winter cancel talk (which luckily in this forum we hear minimal, unlike some other forums). The problem is Winter is a long season here so even if it's a great January, February and March, we lost a month.  I don't buy this one storm or 1 stretch makes a season stuff that some on the East Coast do. I like a Winter for how it behaves the Winter as a whole.

47 minutes ago, OHweather said:

In regards to the last point, a majority of my analogs had a SSWE or at least a significant disruption that in most cases resulted in a decent period of cold after.  Many of the analogs were rather mild for December.  A +ENSO, low solar, lingering -QBO in the lower strat all are going to favor a SSW being more likely than otherwise with all else being equal...so while it is an important piece to getting the anticipated shift to a blockier regime for the second half of the winter, outlooks that had a colder second half of winter in all likelihood banked on it occurring.   After a cold November and start of December we're getting a fairly prolonged mild pattern right now, which just feels odd and I think is causing both an increased level of panic and what seems like straw grasping by some as they point to a SSW to turn the winter around...but at the end of the day it was kind of expected to go like that, so it's more of a "be patient" than a "the ship is sinking, but oh look maybe a SSW might save us".  Whether it is just an "adequate" pattern for the eastern half of the US or a "holy sh*t!" pattern probably remains to be seen, though if we can get the tropics to align with the high latitudes in a few weeks it can certainly make turn towards the latter for later January and February. 

Obviously only time will tell what happens, But all of the usual panic seems to be very here and now based and it a does appear that things will look up in January and into February. 

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Consistent theme that's been showing up in this upcoming stretch starting late in the week through the end of the month is it being active. Will certainly be playing with fire and storm track driven with lack of entrenched cold airmass but there looks to be sufficiently cold air masses lurking to tap into. Could see parts of the sub taking a big chunk out or even removing the December snowfall departures if things break right. Latitude will likely help given the southeast ridging tendency.

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 This SSWE cold that everyone seems to be expecting to hit starting around mid January is still a month away. It would be wonderful if we can spend the next several weeks in an active though not cold pattern getting some snows that spread the wealth throughout the sub forum.

38 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

16.0z GFS was a nice snow improvement, then 16.12z goes warm and makes a bunch of rainers for most of us LAT 40N and below. Was so hoping that the 0z run was the beginning of improved cold air injection into the Friday cyclone. A huge "sigh" at our December luck lately. Aside from '83, '00, and perhaps '09 I can't remember too many solidly cold-n-snowy Dec's for the Lwr Lakes. Seems it's a very rare commodity

 what about Dec 2017?  It was the 5th snowiest December on record at Detroit. And even 2016 was snowy.  I was fearing a crummy December because of how snowy the last 2 where, although I wasn't feeling it to be this bad lol

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Lately it seems so difficult to have a nice cold/snowy stretch starting a week or two before Christmas AND HOLD through the 25th.  I can't even remember the last time it happened around here.  2010?  Maybe before that?  Last year was nice in that it snowed on Christmas Eve, but talk about getting saved at the last minute. December 2016 started out good but the 25th was mild and the snow rapidly melting.

For here last year we had a nice mid December snowpack that melted quickly a few days before christmas and then we had the perfect Currier and Ives Christmas Eve snowstorm. So despite the few day reprieve, I consider that a great December. In 2016 we also had a nice snowpack that was constant from early to mid December through christmas, tho christmas was a very murky day with melting snow (albeit still a full cover). 2013 had a nice snowpack 2 weeks before Christmas then we went down to patchy cover right around Christmas which only lasted a few days and would ironically be the only patch snow covered days until late March 2010 had solid snowcover and cold for 2 weeks before Christmas and into Christmas itself but it was actually quite boring after the storm on December 12.

39 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Always enjoy reading your thoughts OH Weather even know a big chunk of it is way over my head and I don't understand it to well but I think I get the point. Looking like no real sustained cold for most of our sub forum for another 3-5 weeks and what systems we do have come through our sub will more then likely be wet and not white except for the far northern and western areas. That's pretty much what Jon Dee is saying also, wet for most with some white stuff possible in the far north and west between now and the new year. 

I'm sure each storm will have an area of snow it's all going to depend on track. It is not a torch pattern where only the far North and West can get  Snow

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'd be really surprised if 2011-12 was walking through that door. In hindsight, the cold December thought was a fake out and this month likely finishing AN shouldn't be surprising in a weak Niño. Not sure how the snow dept will work out but no reason right now to punt the rest of the winter. I think we'll have some periods of exceptional cold at least.

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I would be surprised also. I mean for starters 2011 had a top 20 warmest November and this year had a top 20 coldest November lol. As a whole snow lovers in much of this region have been very spoiled this century with Winter weather. Of course there have been down times but when you look at the big picture, over 140 years of weather records, there are a lot of winters that are not big snow or cold makers.  Every year is not going to finish snowier than average or average would not be average. But this should not mean that every time we go into a mild or snowless stretch people should fear the worst of the worst.

21 minutes ago, Jonger said:

On a positive note... the heavily climate change biased CFS now has January below normal.

Warm periods are common in most winters, but its especially bad when they occur during what I consider the most delicate time of year for wx weenies. This is the time every year where people have doubts about Winter regardless of how good or bad the pattern is at the time. Absolutely nothing is pointing to 2011-12 with what has happened so far or what likely lurks in the future. As for the CFS? I don't even know what to call it because Winter temperatures have barely budged here and even if you account for a very slight warming there's no excuse for its constant torching. That's why I am definitely intrested in the colder look at has for both January and February.

21 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Give me March 12 again.

 It's one thing to wish for a warm March, especially with our delayed Springs lately. I certainly wont, but understand those who do. but why wish for agricultural disaster?

7 minutes ago, Jonger said:

It's looking like another 2011-2012 might be in the works. 

Not. even. Close.

2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Anyone else getting the feeling this "Cold" winter is going to turn into a 2 week cold period the last week of January and the first week of Feb??  This is starting to remind me of the cold chasing I did in the winter of '05-'06 and '12-'13.  A little discouraged by the CPC's write up for the next 3-4 weeks.  They seem to be thinking the opposite of everyone else.  

No I am not getting that feeling, however I am getting a strong feeling that December will be the least wintry month of that NDJFM period. It hasnt even been a torch, it just has not wanted to snow like it did last month, and signs going forward are certainly better for Jan and Feb.

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The ensembles definitely got worse the last week of December than what they had been showing for quite a while. Possible it's MJO influence which is forecast to be in phase 5 at that time, generally a warm phase for eastern US. OTOH, MJO can muck up long range predictability too.

 

The big talk has been the assault on the stratospheric polar vortex, but perhaps the lag effects of this take us into January. Hopefully there will be some effects of the warming in stratosphere toward the NAO/AO domain being undermodeled w.r.t. there being more blocking and heights being kept lower in the east than shown verbatim on the ensembles.

 

The main message is that the big -EPO that seemed to be highly likely doesn't appear to be coming back in December as things stand right now but with the large swings in LR this week, perhaps things are more uncertain than the normal uncertainty that far out. Pattern could be relatively active so it's possible some of us thread the needle and get some snow out of it. Certainly will need to watch the Thursday-Friday system for location and timing of phasing. Big signal for that system in the h5 anomalies.

 

 

 

 

 I am not too familiar with stratospheric warming, stratospheric assault on the polar vortex, etc, but I gather that this is good news (with a lag effect) for wintry weather down the road. So I am hoping this means a nice wintry January and February. By the dead of winter, even in mild or unfavorable patterns we can get snowstorms, but im talking deep winter. Even the torch-biased CFS is going colder than avg by mid January. In the meantime, with an active pattern returning in late December, I am sure some of us will be able to get snow out it regardless of the lack of true cold.

Not trying to look too far ahead but I'm a bit intrigued by the colder than average temperatures shown on the CFS weeklies for weeks 5 and 6. That model is so prone to auto torching I'm wondering if we really hit some deep Winter by mid January. Obviously snow chances will come well before that.

19 hours ago, Stebo said:

Very sad to read this earlier today especially this time of year.

 Agree. I rarely watch the news so im not familiar with her but apparently she was a well liked tv met in the area

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Went through all the El Nino years since 1979 & the closest matches for since October 1 until present is 2002 & 2014...and it's not even close. What does it mean? It may mean nothing...I dunno. It may be a meaningless fact...but interesting nonetheless. 2002 is the #1 year

Sensible weather wise 2018-19 has absolutely mirrored 2014-15. Obviously it's still extremely early, technically it's not even officially Winter, but 2014-15 started with a cold and somewhat snowy November (this November was snowier) then December was mild, certainly not a torch, but for whatever reason it just would not snow like it normally does in the lakes. January turned cold with frequent snows (although nothing big), then February began with a huge snowstorm followed by record cold.

5 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Here are my analogs for Detroit, for 12/1-12/12, since you seem to live there, for average highs, from October, go back in the earlier in the thread if you want to see

1953 - 49.2
1976 - 28.5
1986 - 36.8
1994 - 43.5
1994 - 43.5
2006 - 37.8
Average - 39.8

2018 - 38.3

I'll be here waiting for yours.

Oh absolutely the next 7 to 10 days will be warmer than normal.  No argument from me on that, as a matter of fact I've been bracing for it for a while as the warm signal has been there. When looking at the CFS it's hard to tell though because it defaults to torching until it gets very close. It forecast a top 20 warmest November on record and instead we had a top 20 coldest November on record. I do believe December will end up warmer than normal however we should already be at a positive departure according to the CFS. I certainly have my doubts about a warm Winter as a whole. And for the record I am far enough North that a mild Winter does not scare away my snow chances (just leads to less snowpack than I like)

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Don't shoot the messenger but the JAMSTEC has completely flipped and joined the CFS with the super hot US winter. I may ask one of the Jamstec scientists on Twitter why their model is so volatile, they seem pretty nice and tend to respond to questions. The Northern Plains did show up as warm in nearly every independent method I could come up with, not just ENSO, so I think that makes sense, and really, that is the one area, along with NM/TX that didn't flip from last month.

I think I'm actually pretty on board with the precip map below, this pattern doesn't seem particularly wet nationally unless the SOI starts to crash to juice up the subtropical jet. The +20 reading for yesterday isn't going to help with that.

The other images are not working for me on their site right now, if someone else wants to give it a go. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

The December run last year actually did fairly well, I'd give it a C+. Was definitely better than the Nov 2017 run for what its worth.

The precip map was actually quite excellent, one of the best I've seen from a seasonal model - solid A for me.

 

For some reason when I went back in the thread to try and find your analysis of the November run of the jamstec, I was unable to find it. Very wise to use normals of 1951-2010 instead of 1895-2010 or 1981-2010. This way you maximize the cold of the 1960s and 1970s into all data sets, wouldn't want to skew anything.  The CFS has been masterful lately. As a matter of fact I think it was only about 10 to 15ﾟ too warm in November. I just hope Palm trees don't start to sprout here in Michigan with this super hot Winter. Nothing says "super hot" like 0.5° Celsius above normal. I can't believe some people in this thread are implying that you're grasping for any straw that will make the North and East warm.

6 hours ago, hlcater said:

It might just be me, but there seem to be quite a few similarities from where we are now to the winter of 14-15. Especially in the Pacific.

 I have heard several people cite that Winter. And so far it certainly is following that trend of a very cold November followed by a Winter-free December and then a harsh rest of Winter. December was absolutely the red headed stepchild of an otherwise harsh Winter in 14-15

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Recently drove down to Nashville and couldn't believe how far south Cincinnati felt. Weather wise Cincinnati has nothing in common with southern ontario/WNY/SE MI 

Which leads me to a question. When do you guys feel like you've entered the south? For me its Cincinnati, especially its Kentucky suburbs.   Ive heard Cincinnati been referred to as the most southern northern city and the most northern southern city.     

I would agreed.  I generally think of Ohio as the North and Kentucky as the South

The last 2 decembers we were rolling in snow. What a boring slap in the face after a snowy November. Hopefully this ends quickly around Christmas.

20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody turn the snow (back) on

 

A depressing comparison