michsnowfreak

59 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I know the euro op was weak sauce for the day 10 threat but the eps has an unusually strong signal around days 8-10 for a nice hits (around next weekend).   Lots of pornographic ensemble members still showing up.

Interesting. There has been a signal on gefs for days centered on that weekend as well. 

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I was checking out some stats for Detroit and the last time they were this deep into January with less than 8" of snow was 2011-12.  How the mighty have fallen.  

Well here comes the cold....definitely not 11-12esque...so we will see what happens in the snow department. 

37 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Im not sure why, but it seems like areas further west always seem to have an easier time getting big snows. Im pretty sure IL, MO, etc have already had way more snow than areas further east and it looks like this storm will be the same.

Thats an odd anamoly this year. In fact, i cant think of a place thats been more screwed in the snow department this decade than St Louis. But they appear ground zero Saturday and they did well in the november storm too.

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

4" to 4.5" at 10:1 so basically at climo or a hair below it.

Sadly at this point I would take it. Specifics side, with a colder regime almost imminent, as long as we get some snow on the ground I will be happy. First things first lol, then I will worry about a big storm

23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like lots of mood flakes for a large area downwind of the lakes.  That's one of the downsides of living west of the lakes out here.  We don't benefit from that sort of thing, so "days with flakes" are likely considerably less than areas further east.  

So true. It's been a horrendous start to the snow season, yet we have still have 32 days with flakes already.

12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah it wasn't terribly great for us, some of the individual members had good amounts but some were whiffs too. The signal is better further south, though tbh the EPS has brought us about 50" of virtual snow already this winter, so use at your own discretion.

 What was the actual EPS means snowfall for DTW?

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Let's start to reverse the horror

Comparing November and December departure from normal snowfall maps would be an artistic masterpiece of color contrast.

Off and on snow squalls today. Only 0.1" at DTW, but actually picked up 0.5" at my house and a little more than that at work. With the gusty winds a lot of its sublimated, but still was nice to have a wintry day on hand amd it does appear that the not-too-long range is looking much better!

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

wb, so pay only.   I wish I could attach some of the ens members...some are pure porn.  And it's not because I'm ethical, it's because I don't have 24 hours to individually delete 300 images before I clear out enough space to be allowed to post again, (that's a rant for a different thread).

The mean isn't as pornographic but still the best signal I've seen for central IL, IN, and OH in a long time.   The individual members are feast or famnine, but more feasts than famine....definitely a snow on snow signal.

I understand, that's why when I post pictures I usually link it from my Facebook or something because you can only post so much before they limit you haha.

29 minutes ago, buckeye said:

lots of good hits for a large part of the sub.   But the axis is i-70.   Probably one of the best 2 week stretch for storm potential in awhile.   At least it's not a tundra signal.

 At this point I don't mind not being in a jackpot as long as I get Snow lol. Do you have a link or is that pay only?

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

the eps 15 day snowfall, (mean and individual members), is the best I've ever seen for MO, IL, IN, OH.   It's like the gods finally decided to drive some good karma right down i-70.

...of course now we have to go from digital to reality....that's always been a sticking point.

Wow. How is it for southern MI?

20 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

That sure was a sharp cutoff south of Indy.

Typically in the midwest, smaller snow systems are very frequent (moreso up here but definitely down by you too). I don't know what's going on this Winter lol, but they usually are. But when you're talking a big storm, sometimes the best snows are the areas that have to "smell the rain" so to speak.

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

I forgot about OHweather.   Of course we finally had a met who loved to do LR pattern discussion and he fricken moves to NJ.  <sarc>which is good since they have such a shortage of forum mets doing analysis<sarc> 

Where have I been? I did not know he moved to New Jersey.

Being the data guru i am, I was looking up other years where there were large periods with little snow. Some interesting data, because many of the winters you dont think of because they dont stand out on futility lists (because of early and or late snows). I couldnt believe the back to back Januarys 1932 & 1933. Both years were record warm January with almost no snow. Both years had reports of dandelions and pussy willows blooming as well as tulips poking several inches through the ground (both years had later cold snaps which surely killed everything). Can you imagine if we had back to back years like that today!?

20 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

As someone who lived in GA all of my life except for the last year, I know all about going many years without getting anything. But when you do get that one rare snowstorm, there's nothing like it.

I forgot you just moved there. Yikes. Trust me...for your area it DOES and WILL get better than what you've seen!

53 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Even though they probably don't get as much snow on average, I kind of like how they are in a better location to get big storms compared to say Cincinnati. The weather just seems more exciting along the East Coast than in the lower Midwest.

Im not as familiar with the lower midwest climate as up here further north, but i know its a big difference snow wise. Of course the midatlantic can get bigger snowstorms, but there are so many years of almost nothing, i dont know if id call that exciting. Id call it frustrating. 

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well, nobody should be taking that map literally.  About the only conclusion I'd draw is that winter is not over, but I didn't need a 46 day map to tell me that.

Exactly!

9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I love how the Mid Atlantic folks get so excited by snowstorms. It takes a lot for midwesterners to get excited.

When a storm threat is imminent, people here get excited. But people here tend to be more laid back. The mid Atlantic forum has hundreds and hundreds of pages devoted to Winter talk but hardly sees any snow. They can get a good hit, but I think DC just recently went like 3 years without a 2" snowfall.  I would definitely say they are probably the most weenie subforum on here

16 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

For visual reference.....

Looks good....now to verify!

18 hours ago, buckeye said:

It sucks that the only long range met discussions that go on this site are mostly in the MA and NE forums.    We have very little discussion about long range, weeklies, etc.    So I go over to their discussions to see if I can extrapolate what might happen here from what the buzz is over there.

I do the same lol.

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

might be onto something.   I was just looking at some things.   The SOI which had gone strongly negative (-20 4 days ago) is now already back up to -4 and rising.   The mjo (both gfs and euro), have us currently in 8 but moving to the COD in few days and then emerging out of the COD in phase 6.    Those are all signals that certainly don't support any brutal cold period down the road.    Also, the 12z gfs looks dramatically different days 14 and 15 on the 500 map than it has in recent runs, (and not in a good way).

Either way, it's going to be fascinating to see how all of this winds up.

FWIW It looks like a warm up after the cold snap later this week is in the cards, but it has looked that way for a while. Actually I'm a little surprised at the cold snap coming this week, at one time it looked like all out torch until around the 20th. Thereafter is when this alleged colder than average weather will hit. I'm assuming that's the warm up that NWS BUF was talking about, I cannot imagine a NWS forecast discussion discussing something more than 2 weeks down the road.

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It appears that the cold will come later this month and hopefully decent snow chances too outside of the belts.  I'm a bit concerned about a northwest flow/clipper dominant pattern, which is not the greatest unless you're ok with building snow gradually.  

 With a horrendous 1st half of met Winter, I would take that in a heartbeat.

28 minutes ago, Chinook said:

5 years ago today. What some people called the Polar Vortex Blizzard. I don't know if you like that name or not, but 10" to 13" of snow fell at Toledo. This was followed up by the possibly the coldest recorded wind chills in Toledo's history. (Assume the post-2001 wind chill formula) KTOL had -15 degrees with a wind of 20kt gusting to 27kt, and the wind chill was -43 degrees when computed with the steady wind of 20 kt.

 

 

An amazing storm leading to an amazing cold outbreak in an epic historic Winter.

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

I don’t really understand. The upcoming pattern in the next 10 days doesn’t scream cold to me, it just looks seasonal.

Maybe low to mid 30s for highs seems cold compared to this absolutely atrocious winter so far, but in the heart of January it’s seasonal. The upcoming pattern looks good if you live in upstate Michigan/GTA/New York for clipper action, but for anyone south or west of there, here’s to praying for February. 

That's because the next 10 days won't be cold. All the talk about colder than average is at least 15 days away.

14 hours ago, buckeye said:

For the Chicago area and western/central  lakes that's true, but for the ohio Valley and eastern lower lakes that's not necessarily.   The snowapocalypse of late Jan and Feb '10 being a great example.  

Besides, let's not forget the mentality of the MA poster.  Any trough, cold air, or low pressure east of the continental divide is by default an HECS threat.  

I browse the New England forum because there is some good insight in there, but it is funny because some people have been touting storm after storm there for 2 months now and nothing has happened.  Some have been realistic, some have not. I don't visit the mid Atlantic forum though, I've heard its reputation lol. Here it's the opposite, some always assume it's going to be dry Northwest flow when a colder than average pattern is on the way.