michsnowfreak

53 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Normal people always remembers the big dogs, never the small dogs....

me, personally. I enjoy winter. I’ll take dozens of 5-10” events over one 20” event every 3-4 years and nothing in between. But that’s me. 

Agree.

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its been a minute since I posted on here but what a better time than to respond to a josh polishing detroit turd winter post. Its a famine climate in SEMI, where you'll be lucky to get one 10+ plus storm each winter. I think everyone on this board would give up the couple 4-8' yearly storms, perhaps go snow less 2-3 consecutive winters,  in return for that 24' plus storm. Kudos to you for still getting excited for 3-6' storm. I'd guess youre one of the few. Its okay to admit the northeast is the place to be for the ultimate snow weenie. 

of course its been a minute since you posted, because you only show up when the northeast gets a big storm, and its been years. I like winter. So yes, harddd pass on an east coast climate south of Boston. Last winter nyc had 2 days with snow on the ground and Philly and DC had 0. lmao. the ultimate snow weenie belongs in a lake snow belt. 

15 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Not meant to be hurtful. I hope Beavis continues to post on this board. Just thought it was unfortunate to have snowmobiling as a hobby in this area since it affords so few opportunities 

Also....Chicago just recently had 4 straight 50"+ seasons from 2007-08 thru 2010-11 (53-60") for the first time in 136 years of record. If beavis wants to have unrealistic standards, at least don't discredit the good that HAS qualified for his winter grading criteria. And what was so bad about winter 2018-19? Chicago got almost 50"and had temps of -30° in January lol. 

22 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

You want to remember what tracking a potential winter storm is like head over to the nyc forum where they are tracking a potential 15-30 inch storm. Very jealous hoping for a few mood flakes later.

Its a feast or famine climate there. They are always prone to a whopper when the ingredients are just right (though this isn't going to be a 30" storm), and they haven't had one in several years. The last measurable snow in NYC? January 18th. I've tracked several storms here and had 25 days with measurable snow since Jan 18th lol.

22 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Josh, that looks like an old Coca-Cola Santa.

 

Yes I know! I collect vintage Christmas and decorate my house in lots of vintage Christmas. 

I decided to sign up for weatherbell, at least for the Winter. Such a cool website with so many things to play with lol. Having access to so much more has enhanced how ridiculously models change from run to run.  But the idea of a much colder January than December seems extremely likely.

9 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

07-08 I was a senior in high school. Southern lake county did very well, I remember a handful of snow days and early dismissals that year. Wish I kept an accurate measurement imby. 

From a snow perspective 07-08 was heaven but it was king of roller coaster, so I imagine beavis would be infuriated over wasting sdds despite all that snow. I had 78.2" of snow but only 60 days of 1"+ snowcover. Thats getting a surplus of 35" of snow but only 10 extra snowcover days.  I think one of the most anomalous winters the opposite way was 1947-48. Detroit only saw 26.8" of snow the entire season however 89 days with 1"+ snow cover. A snowfall deficit of 14" but a snow cover surplus of nearly 40 days. No major snowstorms however 2 big ice storms helped cement in the snow cover as a lot of the time it was cold and dry.

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Germany has been on my list for 3 years. Just never got the chance to go. One of my favourite places along with Switzerland. Definitely want to visit Berlin and Munich. My uncle lives near Dusseldorf. 

I did not know that. Perhaps I'll take a road trip to Ottawa near Christmas to try this poutine. Thanks for the heads up  

 Both Detroit and Chicago do outdoor German themed Christmas markets which are awesome. I've been to both. Unfortunately I doubt they will be doing them this year with everything going on

16 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Glad you've come to grips with punting December, for your own sanity.  But some of us haven't.  

Heck, I'm still furious about the first 10 days of December...and would still be furious even if things got better tomorrow.  December is a winter month; it should not be ok to waste it. Sure, maybe January will be ok...but who really cares at this point?  What consolation is that? 

 Unfortunately the extended looked terrible for December so honestly I punted it a while ago.  December actually started as a Winter wonderland here with over 4" of snow, however a little over 4 days later it was gone and it has been zzzz ever since

6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Since it is banter. Ive mentioned before that this winter has already been given a C because of its decent start for my backyard. However, Im pretty confused by all the optimism and goal post moving and doubling down on winter. Its Mid December and though winter is nowhere close to done, December looks zzzz so that means a lot of places will have to really start crushing it come January and February. At what date do we start to see more of the board throw in the towel? If in two weeks the long range still looks garbage? Mid January? 

I think I never liked "throw in the towel" because it's so subjective. Throw in the towel on what? Along, sustained Winter? In that case Early to mid January would be that towel being thrown. If we simply talking about getting some good snowstorms, I can't throw that towel for another 4 months. Im armed with way too much weather data on la nina winters to worry about mid December zzzs. 

Just now, IWXwx said:

Possibly, but the Euro also depicts the flow going zonal after mid-week and floods us with Pacific air, keeping the cold bottled up. It does hint at a wave crashing ashore at the end of the run. Could it be something to look forward to just in time for Christmas or just another rainer?

oh I'm referring to January being a solid winter month. December will be crap with some snow chances

1 hour ago, KokomoWX said:

Some fodder I caught from social media. It would be great if true...

We have the ingredients for a 1978-style blizzard this winter

I've heard a lot of talk about massive storm potential this winter. I can say this...I will be SHOCKED if the Midwest doesn't have a huge storm this winter. No bets on who the haves and have nots will be though.

7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I think you're taking this out of context.  Simply being "cold enough to snow" isn't good enough; it doesn't mean anything unless it produces consistently.  And it doesn't matter whether it can snow in Nov or April, if it doesn't stay on the ground.  Sure, it's a nice statistic, but would anyone honestly say that Nov or Apr is wintry just because it can snow on a few days during those months? 

What I (and others, probably) mean is a period where we actually get a decent amount of snow and retention, i.e., consistent winter.  In the past 4 winters, we've basically had 2-4 weeks of consistent winter - that's all.  In 2017-18, it was the 2 weeks around Christmas, where it was cold and we had decent snowfall...but the rest of the winter was crap.  In 2018-19, we had decent snow in late Jan followed by the cold outbreak at the end of the month...but the rest of the winter was crap.  And, in 2019-20, did we even have any winter at all?  If we did, it was just a 1-2 week period at most.  Not a good batting average, when DJF spans 13 weeks on the calendar.

2017-18 was for whatever reason way better here than Chicago. it was pretty much constant winter from early Dec to late Feb with a few blips. the cold snap of late Jan 2019 was incredible but otherwise a forgettable winter. Last year, the best period of winter was in November. snow/cold records fell like dominoes. Last winter we had avg snow but below avg snowcover. I use both stats, as I believe both are important. Very few besides you and me look at snowcover stats. 

it seems I give you a hard time but we really have a lot in common. id easily take a cold snowcover winter over a wild winter of heavy snowfall but not consistent snowpack.

32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

So...some of you have referenced my high standards for winter.  As I see it, below is what should happen in winter.  Not saying every winter needs to be like this...but most should be.  In other words, it's what we should expect and count on, and look forward to. 

It's the banter thread and things are boring as **** right now...so why not. 

These really aren't very high standards, in an absolute sense.  They only seem like high standards because our climo is so bad here.  People who live at 44N+ in the Midwest or Plains would probably laugh at these.

There are just certain things which need to happen for winter to be good, no matter what your climo is.  If Dallas TX had their coldest and snowiest winter on record, it still shouldn't be considered a good winter for them.  Their horrible winter climo is just too much to overcome for anyone to seriously think that Dallas could ever have a good winter.  And that's ok...it's just reality.  Same idea as school.  A teacher can grade on a curve up to a point...but there are certain academic standards which need to be met in an absolute sense.  And if no students meet the standards, they all get C's or lower for a grade.  No grade inflation for winter. 

 

Total snowfall

60", ideally spread out by 15" every 30 days during the period Nov 15th to March 15th. 

Or, if more snow falls when daylight is the shortest, that's fine...even if very little falls after Feb 15th.

 

Snow depth

Some thawing and/or compacting...but, on average, snow cover builds up during winter. peaking roughly around 2/15.  Consistency is most important, not the peak depth on a given day.  Not very exciting to see a lot of snow fall, then it melts a week later, then it starts up again, etc.

2" by 12/1

4" by 12/15

6" by 12/31

10" by 1/31

Steady at 10" through 2/15, down to 4" by 2/28, then ok to melt completely by 3/10

 

Temps

Dec and Feb:  Most days with highs in the 20s and lows around 10.  I would even accept about 33% of the days with highs in the 30s.  However, there can be very few, if any, days above 40.  About 20% of the mornings are sub-zero.

Jan:  Most days with highs 20-25 and lows near 5.  Some days around 30.  But very few, if any, days with highs above 35.  About 33% of the mornings are sub-zero (it's January after all).

 

In the end, here is how I would grade winter.  Criteria are, in no particular order:

(1) White Christmas

(2) At least 60 days in DJF with 2"+ of snow cover, including 30 days with 6"+ (it's probably better to use Cumulative SDDs as a criteria, but I haven't dug into this enough).  Again, these are not high standards...as I'm not suggesting 80+ days of snow cover during DJF. 

(3) At least 20 sub-zero mornings

(4) No days with highs above 45 in DJF, and no more than 10 days with highs above 40

(5) 50" of snowfall

In order to have a great winter, all 5 of these things need to happen.  If 4 of the 5 happen, I would call it a good winter.  As exceptional as everyone thinks 2013-14 was, it only falls under the category of "good winter" because we didn't have a White Christmas.  Maybe you could call it "good+"...because the other 4 criteria were exceeded, and some significantly.  I know that may be a tough grading scale for those of us who live in the tropics, but a White Christmas is a big deal.  Overall, I don't think this is a harsh grading scale.  Yes, some others disagree.  That's why it's a weather forum, and we can all have our own opinions.  I have a met degree and admit that I'm a weenie...both of these things can be true. 

Flame away...and post your own standards too...

you are completely entitled to your own standards and preferences. but if you have a met degree, im surprised how often you don't seem to realize your standards do not make meteorological sense for your location, nor have they ever. But im even more surprised how in bad periods (like the one we are in now) you act as though winter doesn't or won't exist, which is unbelievably incorrect.

Also, you feel that everyone else has too low of standards...I disagree with that across the board, even for myself. I've been on weather forums for 18 years now and I can ASSURE you most weenies have unrealistically high standards. I was on forums during this regions snowiest period on record and promise you that the forums were always full of negative posts about how much winter was sucking.

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Euro showing an extremely cold air mass in western Canada...but it just sits there.  These are anomalies in C...some places are 25C (45F) below normal.  You'd think this would be a good sign, to see this cold building in Canada...but then the entire US torches...especially beyond Day 7.  It's a joke.  No pattern is good...it's like the US can't have winter anymore.

 

that is a huge change from the warmth that flooded Canada. the cold building in Canada IS a good sign for down the road.

Since we are in the banter section, I have a curious question about white christmases for other snow lovers. I absolutely love Winter, and I absolutely love Christmas. It goes without saying that I want a white Christmas every year. However, If it is not a white Christmas I enjoy the holiday just as much. I am surprised at how many non-weather folks REALLy want a white Christmas and are disappointed if it's not, but then they complain every time it snows from January through April.  Does anyone else notice this?

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

You will get a window of a few weeks where the pattern lines up and provides enough cold air for some snow. Few if any will accurately predict with any long term accuracy when that will happen but it will. Unfortunately that seems to happen more in the early spring lately.

53 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

So, DJF is 13 weeks long, but we're reduced to hoping for a 2-week wintry period.  That is what our winters have become.  Yay.

That was clearly hyperbole. If not, please show me any winter where we have just 2 weeks of it being cold enough to snow . you know, since it snows 5-7 of the 12 calendar months yearly. 

Averages exist for a reason. the surplus of snow that the lower Lakes saw from 2007-2015 has still not been evened out. And I certainly hope it isn't. but lol do you want me to show you how many snow records ORD has had the past 15 years?

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I am wondering if I can make it the entire month of December and still have no measurable snow for the season.  GFS is saying I have a chance at it.

I doubt it, but that would be insane if it happened 

Sun today for the first time in a week. We have had 0 precip since the Dec 1 snowstorm, which is very unusual. Usually at least a trace is seen on many if not most days this time of year. This weekends storm will be the first flakes or drops much of northern MI has seen all month. 

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

I was speaking from a nation perspective. 2004-05 was a warm winter nationwide with only some select areas finishing near average. Dec 2003 was warm overall despite Jan-Feb ending up well below average. Regardless, we've seen too many historically warm winters over the past 25 years nationwide.

 

is there a user friendly website to look up Canadian data? Toronto and Windsor specifically 

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah...I guess I’m in denial, thinking a 1-2 degree increase wouldn’t be a big deal for our winters. But we are so borderline to begin with, so any temp increase just kills it. 
 

To have a good winter here, we need significantly below average temps, say a -5  or more departure in DJF. See 2013-14. Eventually this anomaly will be -7 or more, as our normals get warmer over time.

I know we can still get snow here with above normal temps in the heart of winter...but of course winter is more than just the total snowfall, when it melts in 3-5 days or less. Total snowfall is a very misleading metric. Need to use SDDs.

A 1 or 2 degree increase in temps will not hurt your winter. Chicago's current DJF avg is 26.4°, thatis not borderline lol. Your winters are never going to be to your satisfaction, but plenty of snow is in your future. Subpar snow seasons are trying to flatten the curve from the above avg snow Chicago saw from 2007-2015. I wish you'd move to a superior snowbelt, you'd love it.

44 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Not sure what the cause maybe for the lack of consistent wintry weather every season. Almost seems like it’s become a norm now. 

But what intrigues me the most that could be playing a role is the North Pacific warm pool that's been literally present since 2014. Not sure if it came about due to the prolonged -EPO we had in 2013-14 but our current La Nina and the 2016-2018 La Nina had little to no effect in reducing it. Similarly, we haven't had any sort of Arctic blocking since 2010-11. So, combine the two and what do you get? A slew of historically warm winters and select winter months nationwide, i.e. 2011-12 including Morch, Dec-Jan 2013, Dec 2014, 2015-16, 2016-17, Dec 2018, 2019-2020 and now Dec 2020? Realistically since 2010-11 only 2013-14 and 2014-15 (only Jan-Mar) were cold winters. Go back a bit more and you can add in 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2004-05, 2005-06 and 2006-07 to that list. 2009-10, although cold in America, was warm all around in Canada due to the impressive block. That’s not a coincidence, that is AGW at its finest.

And futility records seem to be breaking every season lol. 

I disagree about the no cold winters part locally. Since 2000, the following winters have been colder than avg here 

2000-01

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

2017-18

So 10 below avg, 10 above avg 

The past 20 winters at Detroit averaged 1.3° above the 20th century avg, but 8.5" snowier than the 20th century avg and 2 days per season more snowcover than the 20th century avg.

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

^ Yeah Hoosier, here we go again. Feels like there is some type of futility record being set every winter. Might as well load up a post about Nov-Dec warmth too, and the “latest in the season” threshold for certain low temps. Has ORD even dropped below 23-24F yet? Even imby, outside of the worst UHI in the metro, our min for the season so far is only 22. 

 Chicago has probably set more snowy records than snow futility records the past decade. They just set October snow records last Winter. in the age of records for anything, you will be able to find records good and bad every season. 2019-20 was the ONLY snow season on record that Chicago saw measurable snowcover in each of 7 straight months 

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Whether or not one has high expectations for winter to actually be snowy and cold...the medium to long range pattern is horrendous. There is no debate.

Where is the cold air?? It’s nowhere to be found in the lower 48 over the next 2 weeks, during the shortest days of the year. Worse yet is that no snow cover is building up north. It’s bad enough that we have no snow cover here, but it’s ridiculous that MSP and northern WI have bare ground which will probably continue for the foreseeable future. 
 

Even places in the Upper Midwest and northern plains will probably have a brown Christmas, at this rate. That’s like a 1-in-200 year occurrence in places like INL. 

We’ll see an occasional ensemble run or two that tries to build a -EPO in the medium range, but then it vaporizes. 
 

Has it always been true that we need a -EPO in order to get a decent wintry pattern around here? I always knew it was helpful, but didn’t think it was an absolute necessity. 

What is going on?? Will it ever change??

Ugh...

INL has had 4 brown Christmases since 1948.

16 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I got 7" as well. But to be honest, what made this storm seem better than it actually was aside from the fact that it was a frustrating winter, was the massive rain storm a week before lol. A rain storm of that caliber is unheard of in January at our latitudes. We got 3" of rain. 

We had the largest November snowstorm and largest January rainstorm on record last winter lol.

 The rest of December does not look ideal however it looks much better than it did a few days ago. Sticking with my guns, after New Year the fun begins