michsnowfreak

On 12/11/2018 at 12:52 PM, Hoosier said:

That actually seems like a decent stretch for a place like Indy.  I don't know for sure but my guess is that the long term frequency (since records began) for those categories may be somewhat less.

It probably is. I'm not familiar enough with Indys climo to confirm, but it would make sense as we have had that here in Detroit. Snowstorm frequency is much increased since 2000 over the long term average.

3 hours ago, slow poke said:

Both actually, I always take a ton of pictures during the holidays so I'll have to look back at them to refresh my memory. Last year was awesome, 2016 or 15, can't remember which one was also really good with the snow cover and a ice storm on top of it. Made for post card looking scenery. I do remember that year it rained and was a brown Christmas not to far to the south of us so maybe your area was brown that year. People need to remember that on average we only have a white Christmas about 50% of the time in this part of the country.  

Here is the last 10 christmases here. Which as you stated, by definition of white christmas (1"+ snowcover 7am christmas morning) is 50%. It was 60% christmas eve tho (see 2009).

2017- 5" of fresh powder christmas eve and another inch in squalls Christmas day

2016- very heavy 5" slushpack christmas eve dwindled to 3" christmas day. The melting of a deep mid-dec pack. It wasnt pretty but definitely white.

2015- bare 

2014- bare

2013- a fresh dusting christmas day atop frozen patches of snow. This was amusing because from early Dec to late Mar, Dec 24-25 were 2 of only 4 days (all in late dec) where grass was showing in this historic winter

2012- A fresh and rather unexpected inch of snow christmas eve evening was a treat in a mild Dec

2011- bare, but there was a dusting christmas eve morning which quickly melted

2010- 5" snowpack, old but still freshish

2009- 1" snowcover christmas eve was washed away with christmas day rain

2008- Foot snowpack on a rainy christmas eve froze into an 8" glacier christmas day

14 hours ago, hlcater said:

One thing consistent on the deterministic GFS and the GEFS is that big dump of cold air as a result of the -EPO around Christmas.

Bring it!!!

14 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Especially since we celebrate Christmas on the 24th... I'd pay money for this to happen. 

We celebrate with one side of the family on the 24th and the other side on the 25th. I love both days but Christmas Eve has always been my favorite and our snowstorm last year on Christmas Eve was absolutely perfect. Everybody loved the atmosphere it created, except for the dicey travel. It was certainly not the biggest storm of the Winter, but 5" of fresh glistening powder that began falling around noon Christmas Eve until 11pm (more squalls Christmas day as a record cold blast was moved in) was not just a white Christmas. It was courier and ives perfection. To have that happen 2 years in a row would be a dream.

On 12/10/2018 at 7:49 AM, Powerball said:

The last 2 seem reasonable, but that 1st one is definitely funny.

 

They have always been bad but this year is an absolute sh*t show with them defaulting to warm in cold patterns.

On 12/9/2018 at 11:10 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I think the south is in a better location for extreme snow events due to their proximity to the ocean. Outside of the Lake Effect snow region, you just don't see a lot of big snows in the midwest, especially the area of the midwest I am in. The biggest snow we saw last winter was 4" !! I saw 8" in GA last December and there was a foot just 10 miles away lol.  And now the south is getting another huge snowstorm. It's amazing how many cold and cloudy days this part of the country gets, but doesn't get a lot of snow to show for it.

100% wrong. You were in Indiana one Winter. I don't know what you are not grasping about the concept. I'm not sure where in Indiana you live, but again, since 2000, Indianapolis (FAR from the best location for snow in indiana) has had 32 snowstorms of 4" or more, 17 of 6"+, and 4 of 10"+. Obviously, to have the biggest storm of the season be 4" is on the low side. Atlanta meanwhile, in that same timeframe, has had THREE storms of 4"+, the largest being 4.6". 90% of this subform outside the lake belts averages 1-2+ snowstorms PER WINTER of 6"+. Most of the deep south outside the mountainstops is lucky if they average 1 per DECADE.  I do not deny that you are in one of the worst areas of this sub forum for snow, however on average you still certainly will do much better than the deep South in terms of big snowstorms.  

Lol snow has fallen on 5 of the first 8 days of December but we are 0.1" total. I've now had snowflakes fall on 20 days this season already, but am only at 6.2" and have really not had to shovel at all. Only one time, and that was not necessary as it mostly melted later that day. What an odd start.

12 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

  You're seriously going to compare the Midwest with the NE/Mid Atlantic areas which are the most densely populated areas of the country?  Sorry, I perused the SE boards for many years (still do) when I lived there and if there wasn't a cane or a severe outbreak there wasn't a whole lot to talk about except 95 75 every day during the summer and 40 and rain during the winter.  Sure they got a good snow storm last year and again this year.  It was a pretty "boring" board outside of that last winter.  I can guarantee you if  Cat 3 was ready to make landfall in Chicago the thread would crash this site.  When we get our once or twice a decade "Big Dog" you'll see the lurkers come out.  A 6" snow isn't "that" big of a deal around here.  I think you'll find that the posting here is petty consistent throughout the year no matter the weather extremes, something I really like. And btw, just because you live in a geographic area doesn't limit you to your posts or anything else.  I post and read other areas of the country where I've lived and am familiar with the weather.   Don't judge just because it hasn't happened in the couple years you've been here.

Edit:  You have the right to your opinion and it is respected, kinda a "Midwest" thing.  But for someone that's supposedly from the deep south you certainly sound like a Carpetbagger when you post something like that.  Just rubbed me the wrong way being born in the midwest but spent more than half my life in the deep south.  Peace 

Good post and excellent point about a 6" snowfall not being a big deal. We certainly will enjoy it and we certainly will be posting when it happens but there is no need for a 1000+ post thread just because something shows up on the models a week out. Rare snow in the deep South is absolute Comedy Central material for us in here in the North while watching people get stranded and having their commutes take 12 hours to get through 1" of snow.  And even though the mid Atlantic every handful of years gets a massive new englandesque storm, the Midwest and Great Lakes out-snowstorms them by a ton.  And I would not worry about the Midwest's alleged reputation as being boring.  Each state has redeeming qualities and I know first hand that tourism is huge here in Michigan.  It's also comical seeing this on a weatherboard come up because where do you get more extreme changeable weather and change of seasons then the Midwest? Sure as HELL not the deep south or midatlantic. That "boring" reputation primarily comes from elitists on either the East or West Coast stereotyping, and if you think for one minute that they dont stereotype the deep south...l-o-l.

15 hours ago, hlcater said:

I like the slower threads here, to be honest. This place has some good posters with lots of good things to say. Whereas in some of those big threads that are flying at a mile per minute, lots of the people with good, constructive things to say get drowned out by people that seem like they're just posting for the sake of posting. I'd rather have quality over quantity. Not saying there aren't good posters over there(because there are) but it seems like they're the minority -- especially in bigger events.

Agree 100%. As you said there are some knowledgeable posters. The New England forum is certainly the 1st to start hounding on what Winter will be like (they do that in like June lol) so i pop in there occasionally but often it's just way too much to sift through all the junk and clutter in their threads to get to the actual meat so I just pass

Ugh i kept forgetting to enter. Good luck to all but may the snowiest guesses win lol

2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

So basically if you wanna see a good snowstorm, either move to the northeast, mid atlantic, or deep south. By the way, the deep south also had a major snowstorm in Early December last year with a foot of snow outside of Atlanta. Widespread 10-20 inch snows in NC with this storm. I bet IN and OH wont get a snowstorm of that magnitude outside of the Lake Effect snow areas this winter.

Lmao I hope you are joking. As I said in my above post different areas of the sub forum will get hit harder in most storms than other areas. It is rare to see a storm slam the entire subforum, but it is more common to see a storm affect the entire sub form but in different ways. And it's also silly to cherry pick an isolated spot in the deep South and compare that to the entire subforum. The comparisons you have been making of the midwest to the deep south have been so skewed and incorrect its laughable.

2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Does this forum ever have that many posts for a single storm ?

 It all depends. A lot of factors come into play. 1st of all this region gets lots of snow storms so it's not like a novelty thing. 2nd of all most storms will affect one part of the sub forum harder than the other. 3rd of all, some forms have more posters and others

On 12/4/2018 at 5:55 PM, cyclone77 said:

A day full of mood flakes.  Always nice to see with xmas music playing in the background at work.  Snowed enough to whiten the pavement a bit.

We've had mood flakes on and off for the past 3 days but just a trace. Snow has literally fallen and 18 days already this season and I met a total of 6.1" lol. And by the way I've been listening to Christmas music since November 1st.

3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

It is pretty crazy how much of a tightrope there is within this subforum. Its about a 250 mile swath of the region that experiences almost the best climate on the continent (depending on perspective) Normally 30+ inches of snow falls, decent cold but occasional thaws, pond hockey and winter activities can be done with some degree of difficulty. Summers average in the 80s with occasional heat waves. You drive just north of this region and its 7 months of winter and 2 months of summer and drive just south of this region and its 7 months summer and 2 months winter.

Spot on!

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Buffalo gets everything those locations get and 3/4 times the snowfall. We are basically at the same latitude. It's the best combination of living close to a bigger city and big snowfall events. (around 1.5-2 million in WNY) The lake shadow keeps us warm and sunny from May-September. The only bad part is we don't get as many high end severe weather events. You have to get 30-40 miles away from the lake to get the good stuff. 

I was actually thinking of adding Buffalo to that and then I was trying to remember if they can get the hot temperatures with the water. Then again I really suppose 88ﾟdewpoint 73° versus 94° with a dew point of 69ﾟ is just noise lol. Buffalo is certainly a better snow location, I just did not know how hot it could get in the summer.  One thing is for certain the lower Great Lakes Stretching into the upper Midwest in a line between Des Moines in Minneapolis is a perfect area to experience 4 true seasons.  Many of us snow addicts, some worse than others lol, wish to live in climates that are much more Winter heavy and less of a balance between true summer and true Winter.

6 hours ago, Jonger said:

Even my area just about always has more snow than Detroit. When the winter features borderline winter weather, more often then not Detroit is screwed while we have snow.

Borderline Winter weather, meaning mixing or borderline temps, will often see you do better than Detroit. But in the heart of winter ive seen your area get more fringed while detroit slammed. But your area up through Detroit's northern suburbs is an area of somewhat enhanced snowfall. Once you get to northern Oakland County it's an absolute microclimate. One thing some people may not realize is that in lower Michigan it's not simply a South to North thing of who gets the most snow. In fact the Detroit area as a whole very often times gets more snowfall than mid Michigan or the Southeast corner of northeast lower Michigan. It's something most people outstate would not realize because obviously the spotlight is on the snowbelt areas of northern Michigan that get absolutely blasted.  There have even been about 3 or 4 winters this century where Detroit has gotten more snow then the banana belt of the upper peninsula (i.e. Menominee area).

29 minutes ago, slow poke said:

My thoughts are if you really want to live somewhere that has true summer weather about 4 months a year and true winter weather about 4 months a year with about 4 months of in between "crap" weather a year live around the 45th Parallel in a snow belt around the great lakes or above 6000' out west. I feel for the winter weather lovers that live south of MI/WI, that area doesn't have deep snow and cold for months on end during the winter. Would be like if I lived in northern MI and wanted to play golf all year round. I hope you guys in IN and OH get some good snow this season, maybe snowfreek will leave his snow magnet off long enough so you guys can cash in on a good storm or two.

I honestly think the best climates IF you want true summer AND true winter are the likes of Minneapolis, Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago. I really like my Detroit climate for the most part but it isnt my ideal, my ideal would be Marquette. I'm just talking in my opinion I cannot think of a better place to experience distinct seasons. We definitely have long winters and long summers. There are breaks in both, including cool spells in summer and thaws and warm spells in Winter. But the bottom line is winters are full of lots of clouds, lots of snowflakes, and numerous snow systems coming from multiple sources, just as summers are filled with a lot of sunshine and a lot of warm and humid weather. When you are getting up to the 45th parallel, there are certainly several hot days in the summer but there really isn't what id call true summer to satisfy a sun worshippers needs. Winters of course are great (Although I would be very aggravated if I lived that far North but outside of a snow belt. Sure they have frozen Lakes and snow on the ground, but their snowfall totals are extremely weak in comparison to very nearby counterparts). On the flip side, once you are South of 39-40N, Summer is long and hot, no argument there, and there are certainly many cold snaps and several snowfalls in winter, but i wouldnt call it true winter.

4 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It would be something if the south once again got a big early December snow. Last year in early December, parts of GA got a foot ! Does this part of the country ever get a decent snow ? I am still waiting. Might have to move south to see a good snow again. Good grief the weather here is so boring. Cloudy and cold day after day but not much to show for it !

You definitely did not move to one of the better areas of this subforum for snow. And last year sounded on the extra boring side for you. With that said it's definitely a laughable comparison of Indiana and Georgia.  Decent snowfalls in Indiana probably outnumber decent snow falls in Georgia 15 to 1.  You will certainly see a decent snowfall at some point in Indiana.

Edit. I looked up snowfalls since 2000 in Atlanta and Indianapolis. Since 2000, Atlanta has had 3 snowfalls over 4", the largest being 4.6". Indianapolis has had 31 snowfalls over 4", including 17 over 6" and 4 over 10", the largest being 12.3".

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Yep...no offense taken.   It will happen some day.

Yeah, I do like the variety, but prefer seasons to be seasons.  From June 10th to September 10th (not quite JJA, due to residual lake cooling in the spring), about 90% of the days at ORD feel and look like summer.  In other words, you know it's summer.  But in DJF, much less than 90% of the days feel and look like winter.

As Jonger likes to point out, it's also frustrating because you can drive 3-4 hours north of here, and winter is a completely different world.  Even if you go a few weeks without significant snow falling, there is usually snow on the ground, and ponds/lakes are frozen.  So close yet so far.  

  

See this is where it's all perspective. You say that only 25% of the Winter days are like Winter but 90% of the summer days are like summer. I guarantee I could find probably 8 out of 10 people who would say the exact opposite. You're giving a strict criteria for Winter. Per your winter scale, if the high is 20° but there is only 1 inch of snow on the ground, that's not Winter. If there is 6" of snow on the ground but the high is 34°, that's not Winter.  You did not give a scale for what is a summer day, but if 90% of the days from mid June to mid September are summer, considering the Great Lakes averages 15 days or less of 90° per year, I have to assume according to you, a day with a high of 78ﾟis summer. Again it's all in perspective but quite an unfair and unrealistic playing field you are setting forth.  And I say it again, this is coming from someone who has very similar weather likes as you.

2 hours ago, slow poke said:

To me that map looks pretty darn accurate for south east Michigan and northern lower up by our cabin. Thanks for posting it bo. Is that a free site you get that from? Will be neat to follow it through the season to see how it does. Enjoy your winter wonderland up there, down here it was a great day to get stuff done outside, sunny early, light wind and in the 50’s. 

 The map is definitely low for the Detroit area. 6.7" at DTW, 6.1" here, and northern suburbs easily over 10".  For the most part it is a great map though and a great tool as well

I was in a Grand Rapids today. Lots of old dirty piles of snow so it was evident they had a nice Winter wonderland not too long ago. However today it was 95% bare ground

13 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Looks like mid-Atlantic COULD get some significant snow next week. Again, before central Ohio. This area sucks. I miss the winters back east north of Philadelphia. 

 The way the models are I would not count on anything a week away anywhere lol. Most of the mid Atlantic has terrible snow climo , though north of Philadelphia might not be as bad.

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

To date, Chicago has received 12.7" snow and Detroit has picked up 6.7".

At present, everything appears to be on track for a normal to snowier than normal winter. The odds probably lean toward the latter.

To examine where things stand and where they might wind up, I constructed a snowfall profile using the following criteria for total snowfall through November 30:

Chicago (12.7" so far): 4" or more
Cleveland (4.4" so far): 1" - 10"
Detroit (6.7" so far): 2" or more
Milwaukee (6.6" so far): 2" - 12"

The following years fit that criteria (for which a common record exists for the above cities):

1893, 1947, 1953, 1955, 1959, 1974, 1975, 1978, and 1980

Mean seasonal snowfall for Chicago and Detroit was as follows:

Chicago: 47.2" (standard deviation: 17.8")
Detroit: 44.2" (standard deviation: 10.7")

I also constructed a sum of the squares errors analysis. The 5 years with a sum of the squares error < 60" were:

1893, 1959, 1975, 1978, and 2015. 

Mean seasonal snowfall for Chicago and Detroit was as follows:

Chicago: 51.9" (standard deviation: 22.3")
Detroit: 44.0" (standard deviation: 8.7")

The majority of winters cited above did not feature an El Niño. Further, 2015-16 featured a super El Niño event.

Thus, at least at this point, my thinking is that the snowfall figures will likely exceed what is described above. Therefore, I continue to have confidence that my thinking for Chicago (45"-55") and Detroit (50"-60") remains reasonable.

Thanks for the analysis as always don. Detroit averages about 6" more than Chicago on average, and recent winters Detroit has far been out snowing Chicago. With all the talk of an East Coast Winter this year I was thinking it would be another year where Detroit far out snowed Chicago, however Chicago is certainly off and running. November was quite an odd month in Detroit in that it snowed so often but there was nothing of consequence. Snow fell on 14 days during November including 9 days which had measurable snow. It was cloudy or mostly cloudy 27 of the 30 days. Brushing the car off was common as was waking up to light but picturesque snowfalls. Yet shoveling has not been necessary yet, and most of the snows were low ratio. It has been nice to see the flakes fly so frequently but i am definitely ready for more! Climo thru Nov 30 is only 1.6", so it really picks up steam in Dec.  I am sure plow drivers have been salivating seeing so many flakes fall but not having to plow anything yet but climo is a reminder that we are just getting started.

11 hours ago, Stebo said:

DonS has some positive thoughts going forward for Chicago/Detroit

 

 Sounds good. DTX issued their Winter outlook finally. Pretty much call for December to be slightly warmer and slightly less snowy than normal and January and February to be slightly colder and slightly snowier the normal. A very broad brushed outlook not varying much from climo but the take away is what I have heard from several other sources- that December will be the weakest Winter month.

It does look pretty boring for the most part but hopefully we can get a little bit of snow on Thursday. That seems to be the day the models are honing in on at this point