michsnowfreak

7 hours ago, Stebo said:

I know it wasn't DTX, but DTW maxed at 72 for the dewpoint today on the 5 min obs, which would have also destroyed the record for the month. No sounding has had a dewpoint over 70 before, it looks like we have more chances though this week.

How far back does sounding data go? Unlike temps, precip, snowfall, there is no easy way to look up dewpoint data. Other than picking a day and looking at the hourly obs, and even then that is just an hourly ob, no intra hour.i glanced at the hot spell of oct 2007 and it had a max hourly dew of 69°, and the hot spell of 1963 was very dry wetbulbs.  I looked up a few other warm days in October, and found dews in the mid and upper 60s, but no other 70ﾟ, but I only looked up a few. Based on high and low temperatures, there was a very extended warm and humid spell in October 1879, but I cannot access any hourly data that far back. It's always easy to see when a record high or low temperature of any kind is broken, but dewpoints are kind of our hidden data point.

Looking like monday thru wed is very warm then the first real cold blast of autumn hits.

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not the greatest look but again, wouldn't necessarily mean below average snow.

Isnt the ecmwf temp forecast cold?

6 hours ago, weatherbo said:

How cool to see snow on the fall colored trees. What kind of baby fir or spruce tree is that? It will be interesting to see it be completely buried this Winter.

Winter is almost at the northwoods, Bo!

The skies cleared out for a blue sky afternoon and the color show is starting to pop.

Wow surprised to hear there is no color in central OH. The shortening days will over power above avg temps sooner or later im sure. Above avg looks to last til about the 12th or 13th. A coworker just remarked that every day. out the office window theres more color showing. I would consider it more than patchy but in the "low" color category so far.

5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looking forward to it, Bo!

I am originally from Lancaster, PA. Lived in Spring Lake/Grand Haven area of Michigan the past 10 years.

Already have had many conversations with locals that you have to keep up with it. It is a full time job.

I have always lived in Southeast Michigan, but ive always visited many other places as well. Southeast Michigan is a great spot for a true change in seasons, and I have always wished I had a vacation home somewhere that gets an astronomical amount of snow, but I don't think I could live there full time. Its hard to explain, but its like a part of me would love to live in remote wilderness but another part would hate it. Look forward to pics and obs this winter!

As it's nearing peak up by bo, which will start working its way South, figured i would start a thread for observations on the progress of color, as well as pictures.  Some nice early color showing up in Southeast Michigan, nothing abnormal, but I am wondering how the warm weather next week will affect it, if any. It was a late green up, a wet Spring, a dry summer, then a wet start to fall. Mother nature has definitely been playing tricks, but the early color so far seems just fine.

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

This as well, which I find actually more incredible being in the south.

 

Wow that's odd for Atlanta. Detroit has had 3 times on record where it hit 90° in October. It hit 90ﾟ on October 8, 2007, 92ﾟ on October 7, 1963, and 91ﾟ on October 6, 1963. It also hit  89ﾟ in 1951 and 1953, and 88ﾟ in 1897 in 1951.

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ha...sure is! Hope you are doing well, Hoosier.

Definitely a different lifestyle here. The closest small towns are Pulaski and Camden, which are 25 minutes away. While remote, bigger cities like Watertown, Syracuse, and Rome/Utica are all less than an hour away.

We will definitely be stocking up somewhat, but they take really good care of the roads during winter here. The economy relies on people who come for winter rrecreation and spend money on food/drinks, fuel, and lodging.

You should see some of the equipment that is used!

Hey, bud. See above. Weekends are incredibly busy with people coming to their camps...and playing on their 4 wheelers, fishing, etc...just can't get away from people! Ha. During the week it is totally different and very quiet...it feels more isolated...which I love!

 

Enjoy! I forget, where are you from originally?

5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hi, all! This.is "blackrock" who used to post from West Michigan. Made the big move to the Tug this summer...so needless to say, I am excited for some 300 inch + winters and will definitely be joining in on your lake effect discussions.

Nice shot, Bo! Foliage is behind here...but has exploded in color the last couple days.

Welcome back. Will be nice to read your discussions. Is it very remote where you are?

12 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Very nice!  Was thinking about heading up to Wisconsin in about 3 weeks when I'm on vacation to shoot some foliage pics.  Looks like it may be too late by then as things appear a bit ahead of schedule.  May have to slum it and find some place in this area lol.

My guess would be in 3 weeks southern wisconsin would be nice peeping,  but past peak in northern. Im counting on the 13-14th to have great color in northern lower MI when im.up there, then the next weekend here.

September finished here with 5.78" rain. The 6.46" at DTW was detroits 4th wettest september on record. Rains avoided us most of summer but that was not the case in september. Getting the magnet ready lol

Its a very gray dark day today. Temps in southeast MI stuck in the 50s. As i said color is off to a good start, i hope the coming weather doesnt hurt it much. I will be in cadillac Oct 13-14 and hoping/expecting it to be peak.

Nice pics! Color has started here.

Low was 45ﾟ yesterday at DTW. Todays the 5th morning this week in the 40s after not having any 40s since June 6. Several times this week the outlying areas of Southeast Michigan did make it into the mid to upper 30s, including 34ﾟat DTX NWS in White Lake yesterday.

Like i always say about the CFS, the fact that it is run every day and is clearly accessible to any weather weenie, really magnifies models have a long way to go in seasonal forecasting. Even looking at the weeklies it changes on a constant basis. That's why trusting those who have pattern recognition is a better way to figure out what might happen the next month or season than trusting a model. I don't mind the gradient look myself, even if I end up on the warmer side of it, it's October. All that means is I'll have to use the furnace less than normal while the color show is blazing. And its worth saying again- all that called building in Canada cant be a bad thing for the looming Winter.

Quite a temperature contrast will be seen from the North to the South to start October. As I said in the Winter thread, I'm liking the cold building in Canada like that. Locally we wll be on the northern fringe of some pretty warm air the first several days of October before normal and below normal temperatures follow. At least that's how it looks right now.

8 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Just a rainy and raw morning, 42 degrees. AFD mentions possibility of first flakes/grauple tomorrow night. I’m sure I’ll stay up late looking!

 

CAA drops 850mb temps down to -6C or colder by late Fri night/Sat
morning, improving lake effect processes. Wet bulb zero heights fall
below 500ft over higher terrain of west and north central, so if
there is in fact pcpn occurring, could see some snow flakes or
graupel at times with the rain showers

Isn't it something how the 1st flakes are special? Even here, snowflakes fall on probably 60-70 days per year and yet those 1st meaningless, non-accumulating flakes are so special to see. It's good to know the same holds true even up there were you average several hundred inches per year!

Just food for thought. I like how canada will be filling up with unseasonable cold in the coming weeks!

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

2 tornadoes confirmed by DTX

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SUMMARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR THE 09/25/2018 TORNADO EVENTS...

...TORNADO CONFIRMED AND RATED EF1 IN FRENCHTOWN TOWNSHIP IN
MONROE COUNTY...

.Frenchtown Township tornado...

Update...No new changes to this tornado event.

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated peak wind:    95-100 mph
Path length /Statute/:  4.3 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             SEP 25 2018
Start time:             823 PM EDT
Start location:         41.9562 / -83.4321

End date:               SEP 25 2018
End time:               832 PM EDT
End location:           42.0099 / -83.3892

SURVEY SUMMARY: The path began as weak EF0 damage, mainly to
trees, until near Reinhardt and Heiss roads where it became a solid
EF0. The tornado reached EF1 strength near Toben and South Stony
Creek roads where roofing material was removed leaving exposed
trusses and windows that were blown out of homes in the area.
Garage doors were also blown in and many trees were damaged and
uprooted. EF0 damage to siding and tree limbs was noted before the
tornado dissipated near North Stoney Creek road and the railroad
tracks.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

...SECOND TORNADO CONFIRMED AND RATED EF0 IN MONROE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES...

.Berlin Township and Gibraltar tornado...

Update...This is new information regarding this tornado event.

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    65 mph
Path length /Statute/:  4.0 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             SEP 25 2018
Start time:             845 PM EDT
Start location:         42.0356 / -83.264

End date:               SEP 25 2018
End time:               852 PM EDT
End location:           42.0870 / -83.225

SURVEY SUMMARY: An EF0 tornado began in Berlin Township in Monroe
County just south of Sigler Road on North Dixie Highway. The tornado
remained at EF0 strength throughout the entire path length, before
dissipating near the intersection of Meadow Lane and Ostreich Road in
Wayne County near the border of Brownstown Charter Township and the city
of Gibraltar. Damage included multiple limbs and large trees downed,
along with missing shingles to a house near the end of the tornado path.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into
the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

$$

RBP/DRK/AA/BT/IRL/TF/SP

They confirmed a 3rd tornado (in Rockwood). The 3 tornadoes were in relatively close distance to each other.

I had a torrential 2.48" of rain in less than an hour, but no severe. Gibralter is just to my south. I missed a tornado on August 1st about 5 miles to my west. Its crazy that in such a lackluster severe season in MI I missed 2 tornadoes by mere miles.

I was not home during it, but when the 3 tornadoes hit SE MI between 830-930pm last night, we had a TORRENTIAL rainfall. In less than an hour we received 2.48" of rain. My 36-hour total was 3.48", bringing my 7-day total to 4.69". This is a sharp turnaround from the dry spell that encompassed much of summer. Sept rainfall imby is 5.70" but at DTW, the 6.41" already ranks as 4th wettest Sept (DTW had a 36-hour rainfall of 2.92", with "only" 1.12" coming in the torrent that dropped 2.48" here).

Lots of flash flooding in streets last night.

First official morning in the 40s (48 at DTW, 47 at DET, but it was below 50 for 6 hours) since June 6th. FALL IS HERE

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's the September JAMSTEC.  I noticed it has the Nino getting into moderate territory.  It would be more difficult to get this temp/precip look with a weaker Nino...

That's not a bad look for this way at all, but all the models are so different and they change so constantly come up the fun is really been sucked out of seasonal forecasting lol

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

CFS is still warmer than average for October, but it backed off on the magnitude.  Of course it's still kind of useless at this point.

Took until early December last year for my maple trees to lose all their leaves. At this rate I wonder if we will get close to that again.

 CFS seems to be suffering from a bias and is making a stronger nino then is actually forecast by any other model off. Its also the warmest of sny longrange model going into winter. Last year the late September heat spell is what delayed some of the trees I would guess. It was a late peak in early November, but I do not remember any leaves at the beginning of December, even on the latest trees. This year, the trees bloomed late in the Spring, but we've been dry here, so those 2 factors kind of cancel each other out. Larry cosgrove, who called for a hot September, is calling for much colder weather in October. So we will wait and see but every guess I've heard so far is that peak will be right around average (mid to late Oct). Some of the usual spotty early color is popping up.

The earliest trees are beginning to get color In Michigan too, as Jerry said it has begun! The annual descent into Winter, which seems slow right now, but the mostly green trees now will be bare In 6 or 7 weeks. It's coming fast.