michsnowfreak

On 10/22/2018 at 12:00 PM, Hoosier said:

I bet very few really good ones though, at least since 1980.  What I encountered in the data going back to then was that sometimes the monthly snow total wasn't bad, but the month was warm overall.  Then there were others that simply sucked from a cold AND snow perspective.  Nino Decembers seemed better overall in the 70s for whatever reason.

As far as the storms I mentioned in my other post, the OV into the southeastern Lakes got the big pre-Christmas storm in 2004.  Then there was the storm that nailed MO/IL/WI at the beginning of Dec 2006.

 Admittedly I only looked at snowfall, not average temperature

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Dec 2002 was good. I was hit by the 2004 storm but not 2006. But yes, i too hope we dont have a crappy December. Especially since the last two december's were very snowy here- 2016 was Detroits 14th snowiest Dec (13th at the time) and 2017 the 5th snowiest.

I looked at nino decembers...quite variable actually. At least here.

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully we avoid the crappy December this year, which seems to be something that happens too often in Ninos (at least the past 30-40 years).  The last Nino December that wasn't a total disaster in my book was probably 2009, but opinions may vary depending on where you live.   2004 and 2006 had a couple nice storms, but you were pretty much screwed if you weren't hit by those.

Dec 2002 was good. I was hit by the 2004 storm but not 2006. But yes, i too hope we dont have a crappy December. Especially since the last two december's were very snowy here- 2016 was Detroits 14th snowiest Dec (13th at the time) and 2017 the 5th snowiest.

The blob is welcome to stay!

Was reading the winter thread on the new England forum. Euro seasonal has us in a colder but drier than avg winter. Again, drier does not necessarily mean less snow than avg. Give me average snowfall with constant snowcover and im fine. 

There really are lots of different scenarios being thrown out there.

Had a little sleet and it looked like a bit of wet snow too, mix in with the driving rain last evening. It was just a very little bit, but the frozen precip kickoff to the 2018-19 season.

On 10/18/2018 at 11:42 PM, cyclone77 said:

Looks like 45-50mph gust potential over parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana on Saturday.  Low heights with the vort max, unidirectional wind profiles, very strong winds high in the atmosphere, and mixing up to about 850mb for most of the areas.  If some of that really high momentum air from aloft was just a little lower down towards the top of the mixed layer we'd be looking at a potential high wind warning event.  Looks like 40-50kts at 850mb for the most part though.  Something to keep an eye on.

Lows in southeast Michigan ranged from the low 20s in outlying areas to the warm spot of 30ﾟ at DTW on Thursday. The 1st official freeze was 2 days prior to that. We went from summer like heat to growing season ending cold in a week 

35 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

 After a month of fog, rain, snow, and FOG (!), beautiful blue skies all day long.  Even with the breeze, the high of 57 felt warm enough for only a t-shirt. Wasn't sure there was gonna be another day this nice, so I enjoyed it even more.

Wow warmer than down here. High was 53° after a low in the 20s almost everywhere except 30° at DTW. Clear blue sky. With this being the 2nd official freeze at Detroit, with more in outlying areas, the growing season is most certainly done, after we were suffering in heat less than 2 weeks ago lol

19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Chiming back in after a long break. We won't put anything out locally (from LOT) until November but wanted to offer some prelim thoughts. Assuming we do have a weak Nino, the composite favors a cool east and warm west and a dry signal in this region. Interestingly the most recent Euro seasonal had this sort of look and the cold peaking in Feb like in recent weak to lower end moderate Ninos (02-03, 06-07 and 14-15). 

 

The change I would've made to the outlook would be to remove the low warm probs over southeast half of IA, southern WI, northern IL, far northern IN and southern lower MI and gotten rid of the warm probs in the northeast.

The dry signal here is pretty reasonable from past similar events. Of course all it takes is one big dog or a few sig events to skew the seasonal snowfall, which is what happened for parts of the sub in 2014-15. Outside of GHD II, that was a cool and mostly dry winter locally.

 

 

 

 

 

There has been an undeniable trend in this area for increasing snowfall, however sometimes snowy, active winters mean there will be plenty of thaws and grinch rain storms that wash away nice snowpacks. I am not opposed to a Winter where the ground is white almost the entire time even though the final snow number is not super impressive. of course having the best of both worlds like in 2013 - 14 would be ideal, but is an extremely unrealistic expectation. 

25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

#standardelninomapwithzeroskillinvolved

Absolutely correct

Pics from this weekend in Cadillac

Took this pic today of late-day Autumn light. There is some nice color in SE MI but it seems to be more muted/dull than the usual bright display

1968-69 was a terrible Winter here, in fact it was Detroit's last sub 20" Winter on record. The other winters mentioned however were all good here. I myself was a big fan of 2002-03, had 69" imby, but I know just to the West it was not that good. My gut feeling on this Winter would be average to colder and snowier than average. As I said earlier, seasonal forecast models seem to be split, some going colder and some milder, but no extremes one way or the other seem to be in play temp wise. As for snow? It's hard not to go on the snowy side considering the overall snowiness of this century in this area. And the old-fashioned, take-with-a-grain-of-salt, nature signs do point toward a harsh Winter. Even the Almanacs are split. At the end of the day, I do not think this will be a terrible disaster Winter nor do I think it will be one of the greats. When there are so many conflicting signs, it's not a bad bet to just go average

1st official freeze this morning at DTW with a low of 31ﾟ. The last freeze and Spring was April 29th, so the 2018 growing season was 169 days. It was very frosty this morning.

Spending the weekend in Cadillac come up where color is at its peak. It is absolutely gorgeous. I suspect peak color in Southeast Michigan will be in 1 to 2 weeks.

Crazy about the snow in central Illinois!  Here it was a cloudy November like day

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

JAMSTEC goes pretty nuts with the Nino. Gets it into strong territory for the bulk of winter.  That seems hard to believe but if it somehow verified, talk about throwing a wrench into the cold forecasts... barring a bailout from favorable blocking.

Lol and the latest ukmet and euro seasonals show a colder than avg winter.  I looked at the JAMSTEC surface temp anomaly, and it certainly has the classic warmer than average to the North colder than average to the South strong nino look, however actual anomaly for the Great Lakes region is less than 1ﾟC warmer than avg. What I have noticed is that despite some long range models showing a colder than average Winter and some showing warmer than average, I have not seen any models show extreme temp anomalies one way or the other.

Feels amazing outside as the temperature keeps dropping. Put my upstairs bedroom air conditioner in the basement for the next 7.5 months. No doubt the furnace will be going and some point this weekend, we will see how long I can last lol

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The elite/great winters (77-78, 13-14, etc) generally didn't have that warmth in the northern US in November.  Not that anyone has been calling for an all-time great winter.  

A cold November doesn't mean it will be a great winter, but all in all, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with that.

I would have to go back and look to be sure, but I know we discuss November and its correlation, or lack thereof, to the coming Winter, and like we already said, there really isn't one. Even at face value that CFS is 0.5° to 2ﾟC warmer than normal for November depending on area. Thats not exactly a blowtorch. Sometimes the colors of maps can be misleading.

Edit: i think I did a correlation between November snow and the following Winter snow, not sure if I did a temp correlation.

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I hope this look changes for November.  It has 3 more weeks.  There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November.

 

Ive heard that CFS has a warm bias (its usually the warmest of all seasonal models), but regardless of what it shows one thing you can absolutely bank on, is that it will change, and perhaps drastically.  You are right also in that there is no correlation between November and the following Winter, but like you I certainly prefer average or colder than average.

It felt weird this afternoon to drive along exploding colors of Fall with the sauna like atmosphere. After 2 more days, the coldest air of Fall awaits.

Once the fog burned off it was like a sauna. Highs peaked in the low 80s but dews were near 70. Fall colors moving right along though. Much colder air is lurking, after 2 more days AC season looks to be done for good.

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's one tree on my block that is starting to turn yellow but everything else is totally green.  Maples though which typically turn later.  An early season snowstorm would be trouble.

Sounds like there is much more color here than your area, and you are just slightly south. Far northern indiana right?

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone catch this on the FV3 GFS?

Yeah, not likely, but a sign of the seasonal shift more than anything.

 

I always like to say I get ready for snow November 1st because I love fall so much. But obviously if it actually was going to snow, I would love it lol. Spring is always summer battling to overtake Winter, and likewise Fall is Winter battling to overtake summer. Just like last April, a mid month ice storm and a snowfall several days after that felt like the depths of Winter, but summer was not far off. Just like the beginning of this week will feel like we have reversed back to mid summer but Winter is really not far at all.

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I'll take the over at this point, models tend to correct warmer especially with cold that significant. I remember the last cold blast being that we were going to barely hit 50, ended up much warmer than that, just seasonally cool nights.

I guess we will see. I don't remember any cold snaps this fall yet where we were forecast to barely hit 50ﾟ. It is true that models seem to overdo cold shots early on in the cold season, however at this time pretty much every model shows high temperatures colder than mid 50s on a few days between Saturday and Monday.  Cloudcover and 850s once we are closer will ultimately be the determining factor, but it certainly looks like we go from anomalous warmth to anomalous cold this week.

22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Highs in the mid to upper 50s you mean.

 I don't know, Sunday and Monday look colder than that on the models.

24 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Interesting to see that high just sitting off the coast this time of year, it’s essentially a July weather pattern happening. Everybody is probably going to get sick in the middle of the week as that cold front puts us at true Fall conditions

 We are going to be going from well above normal temperatures to well below normal temperatures. It will be a very sharp contrast. Highs in the 80s as late as Wednesday could become highs in the 40s a few days later.