michsnowfreak

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

You should know better than taking me literally.  I'm being a bit facetious here.   My point is that although all signs point to colder weather,  the eps mean is putrid for a 15 day stretch in January for our neck of the woods.   That would indicate there are plenty of ensemble members out of the 51 that are complete shutouts, (and there are, I checked).   We are in the Midwest, in January, with temps heading for a cool down and it appears we could be heading for a dry NW flow pattern, as Stebo has also indicated.

Emerging from the wettest year on record for CMH only makes it even more craptastic.

I agree it's terrible. Such a wintry November was a treat, but the suffering of December through the 1st half of January is far worse  I would take a November shut out any day over that. But the cold is after 15 days, so it does not surprise me that the 15 day looks bad. Doesn't make things better, just saying. I'm just thankful a change appears to be coming. With the way this Winter has gone, I will take my chances with Northwest flow in a heartbeat. At least there would be SOME snow.  I also want to add that I have never in the history of weatherboards seen a change towards a colder than average Winter pattern without people lamenting it will be dry Northwest flow (sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't).

Do you have to pay for EPS snowfall means?

30 minutes ago, buckeye said:

You're in better shape than we are.  According to the eps your 15 day total snow mean is approaching 2.5"

Just make sure you post pics!

Lol how do you get EPS snowfall? The next 2 weeks look continued mild, thereafter is when the cold looks to take over. It's one thing to hear of cold euro weeklies, but when I see CPC & CFS going blue in the longrange, confidence is high in a turn towards much colder weather

1 hour ago, DAFF said:

Best fantasy snow of the season IMBY.. I'd be pumped for a solid C-1 at this point. Yet to have any accumulating snow that didn't melt on impact on asphalt. So much equipment sitting idle.

With all of those accumulating snows in November, only one (November 15th) stuck to the pavement. After the next few weeks the long range is looking much, much colder, so a period of Winter is finally looking like it's on the way.

10 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

By that, you mean systems tracking south of us. Cuz we've had systems. In fact about 3 in a row that tracked right over SMI. We'll never score if that continues, and that's exactly the same thing models have the next two systems doing (8th and 11th). Tough to polish this turd tbh

I meant systems will need to continue rolling through once the cold is here. Hopefully it will remain active is what i meant basically. We already had a big boring period in December. 

On 12/31/2018 at 10:31 PM, *Flash* said:

Random post...but just wanted to extend a shout-out from the TN Valley forum. On the six year anniversary of 12/26/12, the wife and I punched a B&B ticket from one Nashville to the other (i.e. Tennessee to Indiana). With our dates of travel February 10-12, we're hoping we can score some snow. *Fingers crossed* For those who remember that storm, I took my then fiancée up on a snowchase during which we mentally bookmarked several B&B's on route to Bloomington. First and last time I've driven in over a foot of snow. Down where I'm from, you gotta have a historic storm with drifts to measure snow in feet. At any rate, I know many are already cliff-diving based on December/how January 1-20 is looking, but if 2006-07 ends up being a top 2/3 analog for this winter, I must admit I'm optimistic about this forum's chances. While his winter has been its own analog, with so many amped telecons, you gotta think the dam is gonna break at some point.

Im sure the dam will break. After Jan 20th we should get some more sustained winter but there will be chances before then.

Wet light snow this afternoon and more dangerous freezing drizzle this evening on the backside of the storm.

7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Would've been disappointing enough, but that actually made it much worse!

And now we begin a new month/year with this. No surprise d10 snow maps are a total dud

 

We will see if this talk of cold in the 3rd week of January pans out. At our northern latitude we do not even necessarily need cold, we just need to avoid torch and get some systems.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It was very boring here in the northeast

It was horrible. After a good November too. 

Crazy to believe that was 20 years ago!

Just a sugary dusting here while areas close by got an inch last night. Will be happy to put December to bed and start fresh.

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

-This winter is going so bad....

- how bad,is it???

- stebo and the gang are discussing spring chases in the long range winter thread!

Seriously, the long range models really crapped the bed.   Even JB is admittedly rattled and beginning to second guess things.....and he usually never waivers.

 The long range models have really been badd, all over the place every which way, but I thought JB was talking about things outside of long range window.

Edit. I do not follow JB, but i googled his Twitter. Hes going on about a warm spell we had at this time in 1984 when a strat warming was going on, and how cold later in January 1985 was. I don't see any wavering from him on his Twitter lol.

Im going to the keewenaw 2nd week of Feb...can't go wrong that time of year for deep snow! My birthday is 2nd week of May and i dont recall much severe.

Definitely ready to put December behind us!

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

2.5" Thursday, and 8.6" here yesterday for a storm total of just over 11".  Snow for the month of December 38" and for the season so far 84".  Snow is deep in Superior land

looking out front and back door

My Winter trip this year will be the 2nd week of February. Have not decided exactly where I'm going, but it will be somewhere in the UP, either your area or the keweenaw. Got 0.1" this morning, just are 2nd dusting of December after 9 days with measurable snow in November.

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

I feel like I will never top 07-08. Steve feels like he will never top Feb 15. Josh feels like he will never top 13-14.

That may all be true, but there’s something to be said that we’ve seen these historical stretches all over the last decade. In other words, never say never. I’ll keep holding out hope for eclipsing 12ft someday.

With the increasing snowfall this century, an undeniable trend here in the southern Great Lakes east into New England, I suppose it is possible we may one day exceed the snowfall total, which broke a record that had been in place since 1880 for Detroit's snowiest Winter. Its also definitely possible to see a wall-to-wall Winter with no breaks like that one, just probably not as harsh. What I just could not believe is that we had that much snow with that much cold. Shoveling a foot of snow in -50° wind chills? Snow drifts to top of barns in rural areas and tops of fences in most backyards? Daily ground blizzards and several snowy days with temps below zero? It should have been a tundra, not the snowiest winter on record. If I heard grandpa tell these stories without weather data to back it up, I wouldn't believe him for a minute.

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

What is your sourcing on this, my guess is the NE subforum, what is good for them isn't for us more often than not. Most of the time beyond day 15 has troughing in the east but it is centered over us or even further east, that would have a tendency to favor the east coast.

 I did see that new englanders liked the weeklies lol, but my source was actually a weather friend who lives in Port Huron. A much colder look and quite clippery. He also said it's looking like he said all along, February would be our most active month of the Winter.  Granted it's not the best look for storms, but it's far better than this abortion of a December we've had. The  45 day EPS mean snowfall (Dec 27-Feb 9) for DTW was around 15". We've had a lot of great winters this decade, every Winter will not be good or else average would not be average anymore. I really thought this Winter would be a better, but after a great Nov, Dec has been hell and ill take what i can get.

What is that the weeklies look good. I certainly hope so!

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Skiing however is personal to me so there is definitely an affect at some level. Only a few things make me happier on a totally selfish level 

 For me there is nothing like taking a Winter walk. I just love going Into the Woods or the park with the fresh glistening powder everywhere. Most winters there are plenty of opportunities for that, the crappiest ones there are fewer. I certainly get disappointed when I have some free time and there's no snow to take that walk, so it's definitely a downer. But I don't go to bed hating life or anything like that lol

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

My life is better by waking up on this side of the grass everyday however as I have stated many times, my lifetime snow/cold combo goal was Feb 1934 so with 2015 I am satiated in that regard, it's all a bonus now.

I have the same goal, waking on this side of the grass! Our historic winter was 2013-14, will never be topped. And i dont expect it to be. No matter how many good winters are had, it doesnt make it fun to experience a crappy one, but it should have no more affect you on a personal level.

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

My life was never altered in a negative way by ratter winters nor did it get qualitatively better with epicosity.

Ive been skimming this thread every few days for some insight into when this December torture might end lol, but I must comment that this quote is a masterpiece. This is summed up perfectly. I love snow more than anybody I know, but a terrible Winter will not alter my life in any way. Likewise, with as many record snowy winters as we have had in recent years, it's not like that has made my life better, just gives me some enjoyment.  I think most get that, but some of them.....I don't know.

4 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

The upper ov/lower lakes area is in a large snow slump. It some respects it started in the winter of 2014-15 with the super bowl snowstorm surging north the last 24 hours and 2015-onward has been very disappointing.

Definitely not in a long snow slump in southeast Michigan but this December has been brutal.

Mood flakes this afternoon and evening, just another trace. Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

Some flurries today, but a bare Christmas. Last year at this time the absolute picture-perfect Christmas Eve snowstorm was taking place. Either way, hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas!

3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Looks like at least another 2-3 weeks of boring weather. Im then off to Arizona so everyone should expect a big snowstorm in mid January haha. 

Not ready to throw in the towel yet, but by late February/March it gets increasingly difficult for good snowstorm in the lower lakes so time is running out. And I know it can snow well into March/April but it quickly becomes elevation dependent in the GTA. Especially April.  

I disagree that late February into March is difficult to get a good snowstorm in the lower lakes. That is not at all the case, however obviously a snowstorm at that time of year, while still enjoyable, won't have the lasting effects. This time of year a snowstorm makes me think, nice we can lay down a nice long snow cover as long as we avoid a torch. By March the Sun angle does increase the melt of the snowpack

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Don won me over during the winter of 2011/12.    I remember I was in Hawaii in early January and every mornng I was checking the weather back home to see what it would be like when I got back.   I remember most forecasters like DT were touting a pattern change to much colder later in January and into February but Don was adamant that winter was essentially over and there would be no pattern change or any incoming sustained cold.

We all know what happened....   huge win for the Don.

This year I'm rooting for Roger Smith's forecast to verify.  He's calling for a cold snowy period from mid Jan to mid Feb and then winter exiting quickly and early.   That would be my perfect winter.    Unfortunately he is  the only forecasters I've seen calling for an early end to winter.  Most want to keep the cold going into April...ugh.

 

Don is great because he does not have a warm or cold bias. Even some of the greats seem to have a bias one way or the other. Thats why i buy him a lot faster than i would jb saying cold and snowy. Likewise, if i heard him say warm it would be a red flag unlike if i heard some of tne warmingistas saying warm.