michsnowfreak

To be clear I'm not bashing cosgrove, i like him. i'm just wondering where he is seeing this alleged mid Jan thaw on the long range models. I have weatherbell and the end of the ensembles, as well as euro and cfs weeklies...couldn't be further from a thaw east of the rockies (at least in the North). If he feels they're wrong or whatever, fine, but we must be looking at different models lol. Not wish casting either because I actually like where I stand in the lakes for storminess...just wondering when that extreme cold to the west will bleed over for a longer spell.

It's only on AlekGoogle. Dusting at best.

He is making no sense. He keeps saying a brief cold shot around new years than a 10-22 thaw before a very cold end of Jan and into Feb. He is saying all ensembles show an extended Jan thaw. So....since the actual ensembles only go to Jan 13 (showing cold)....and the cfs and euro weeklies show cold...what is he looking at?

Snowing good here

Next year will be the earliest measurable snow.

Just so nothing is lost in the translation, I will never, ever, EVER root against my backyard/SE MI lmao. I just meant that with iowa's snowless start to the season I wouldn't mind a little bit of spread the wealth. And bowling balls, one of my favorites, do just that. Iowa in general seems to be a little colder and a little less snowy than here. If you want to be technical, Detroit has had above average snow 3 of the 4 past winters, the previous 2 just ever so slightly above average, 18-19 well below, and 17-18 well above. The cold is definitely coming for January, so let's hope plenty of white is as well.

It's a game the models play almost every storm lol. I actually thought of that the other day when the euro was very South. Hopefully we get some good bowling ball type storms this Winter.

2 of the past 3 winters have been good in Iowa but honestly before then, we cashed in far more than them. And we all enjoyed deep snow last Feb. Slow starts make everyone snow hungry but hopefully this entire sub cashes in as Winter clearly is ready to go on a rampage.

It's the nature of snow weenies on a weatherboard lol. Let the good times commence!

I estimated 0.7" here. Not sure if that's a little underdone because it was already raining and sleeting. An absolute slurpee. Slowly melted during the morning, now its gone. Season 7.9" here, 8.5" DTW. Had all the earmarks of an April snowfall however knowing that a wintry January likely lurks I won't complain. Trash December aside, it's crazy to note that Detroit has now seen measurable snow fall on 11 days and Chicago still waits. Although their wait ends tomorrow.

After getting snowfalls of 4.1" and 2.0" In November my largest december snowfall is 0.4". That should change in January. I'll say it again, I'm loving the look of the pattern for our area.

It is wherever the official site is at that time. Site location, surroundings, radiating, UHI all play factors but they are what the official data is.

Today DTW finally fell below average for season snow to date, standing at 7.8" on the season and 8.0" being normal to date

I always thought you were around the same age as me (I'm 38). if you want to talk about what we "grew up with" Winters today for the most part are superior to the winters of my middle school & high school days in the 1990s. I was not yet born when the brutal cold of the 1970s masked averages. Here are Chicago's 30 year DJF normals. As I said, it is 2ﾟ not 4ﾟ colder, and as you see 1961-90 sticks out like a sore, cold thumb. 1881-10: 25.7 1891-20: 25.9 1901-30: 26.8 1911-40: 27.9 1921-50: 28.1 1931-60: 28.0 1941-70: 26.8 1951-80: 26.0 1961-90: 25.1 1971-00: 25.9 1981-10: 26.3 1991-20: 27.1

Chicago's 1961-90 normals, which was the coldest 30 year period on record in chicago, are 2ﾟcolder than 1991-2020, at least using the raw data, not 4°. Regardless, after a snowy Thanksgivimg weekend here December was trash. Here's hoping the long range models are right for a wintry January.

I disagree 100%. January is our coldest month of the year, with Feb close behind. Seeing a sea of blue over us is not necessary (even though that IS what all models/ensembles show as we get into early-mid January and beyond). Being north but in the battleground with unusually cold air in the already cold north and unusually warm air in the already warm south is just asking for lots of snowstorm potential.

The mid 80s were actually pretty good winters here however no memorable storms.

January is looking awesome. Extreme cold to the North and warmth to the south and we are right in the battleground full of precip. I mean...yes models suck...but certainly can't ask for a better look as we head into the depths of winter.

January 1999 was epic and March 1999 had a good run too. The Winters of 1992-93 & 1993-94 were pretty good. Otherwise, a bunch of forgetful winters.

Actually they only beat Detroit by 3.9" last year. And we both had excellent February's, there's was just epic. Since Detroit averages about 7" or so more than Chicago, Detroit will usually beat them. In the past 20 years, Chicago has won the snow race just 6 times (2003-04, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-15, 2018-19, 2020-21).

For the most part, they sucked for sure lol

We actually have had a handful of perfectly timed snowstorms over the past few decades. Dec 24/25, 2002: 6.8" Dec 24/25. 2003: 3.3" Dec 22/23, 2004: 8.5" Dec 24/25, 2017: 5.5" Dec 24/25, 2020: 3.6"

Which is why I said a tall order, not impossible lol. Although even under your scenario, your big dog would have to drop 18" of snow at Chicago, 0 at Detroit, and the remainder of the season would still have to have the 2 see the same amount of additional snowfall.

Yeah, no doubt Chicago will rebound but it will be a tall order for them to get 18+ inches more snow than Detroit from now through the rest of the season.

Just a random tidbit to the Chicago snowless. The record for latest 1st measurable snowfall at Detroit is actually December 29, 1998. (I had 2 small 0.1" dustings in mid December, but DTW only had a trace). It broke the previous 1948 record by 10 days. Four days later...