michsnowfreak

30-50 years ago DTW nighttime temperatures would be anywhere from 3 to 10ﾟ warmer than Detroit city. Now they are very similar, often plus or minus a degree or so. DTW area itself is still fairly rural but obviously the airport is full of concrete. On a good radiating night temperatures will always be several degrees colder on the South side of the airport than what the official observation indicates. And in extreme air masses is even more extreme. On Feb 20, 2015 The official low was -13ﾟ however as I drove to work literally passing the south airport property my car read -22 around 7:30 a.m. We must not be looking at the same chart if you think it shows a steady 3 to 5ﾟ increase with everything lol. I will say it again, I do not understand how using the coldest averages of whatever decade should be considered baseline. If we use that same logic, I guess the increase in snowfall is catastrophic for winter haters since the 2010s were the snowiest decade on record. Here is the same chart over the last 90 years. The only notable increase as a whole has been may, ironic after the 2020 started with cold and snow records in May.

good point. I'd place my bets on urban development mostly. fwiw since we've been talking average, here is Detroits monthly max/min avg (rounded to nearest degree) per decade. will show you where the trends are.

I hardly doubt that overall we will see any difference in our winters. keep in mind climate does tend to goes in cycles.

Keep in mind, in the case of ORD & DTW in the 1960s and 1970s, it was the "perfect storm" of urban heat island being pretty much nonexistent in those areas so they radiated like a magnet and then of course you add in the fact that that was pretty much the coldest period of winters on record following the warm winters of mid 20th century. In the case of DTW, the area still radiates excellent on the South side of the airport due to terrain but that is not where the thermometer is located, it is located on the warmer North side. One of my biggest pet peeves in the weather is when people use the coldest winters on record as baseline. FYI here is Chicago's official averages by decade for Jan. Obviously in the early days when the thermometer was near the Lake it's going to give you kind of a falsely high reading but that is also no different as the days when it was rural and gave a falsly low reading at night. But really it does not matter what site you use for the actual specific numbers, there was a huge change from the warm winters of the 1930s-50s then the cold winters of the 1960s-80s. 1890s: 30/18 1900s: 32/19 1910s: 32/18 1920s: 32/18 1930s: 35/22 1940s: 32/17 1950s: 33/18 1960s: 30/16 1970s: 27/12 1980s: 30/14 1990s: 32/17 2000s: 32/18 2010s: 31/17

UHI is annoying but it's hardly catastrophic.

Using the raw data from xmacis, here's the full 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 breakdown for annual normals at DTW: Biggest takeaways: ~1980s DTW was a radiating magnet, the 2010s UHI rapidly increased (and i mean rapidly, altho it has leveled off in recent years and seems pretty steady) ~Both precip and snowfall are increasing, one note on precip: though its getting better, sometimes asos is still terrible in dry or windy snowfalls, and those amts are not always adjusted by the nws. In the 80s, a standard rain gauge was used. Take away...realistically you can probably add a bit of precip to the winter months ~The warm months (May-Oct) are the main increases in temps. 1981-2010/1991-2020 Max: 59.0/59.5 Min: 41.3/42.1 Mean: 50.1/50.8 Days Tmax >=90: 12/13 Days Tmin <=32: 124/120 Days Tmin <=0: 4/4 Precip: 33.45/34.29 Snow: 43.0"/44.6" Days >=0.01" precip: 135/136 Days >=0.10" precip: 73/73 Days >=0.50" precip: 21/21 Days >=1.00" precip: 6/6 Days >= 1" snowdepth: 46/47 Days >= 5" snowdepth: 15/18 Days >= 10" snowdepth: 3/5 MONTHLY BREAKDOWNS 1981-2010/1991-2020 TEMPS -- PRECIP -- SNOW Jan: 25.3/25.8 -- 1.98"/2.23" -- 12.8"/13.9" Feb: 27.9/28.1 -- 2.01"/2.08" -- 10.5"/12.2" Mar: 36.9/37.3 -- 2.28"/2.43" -- 6.8"/6.2" Apr: 49.0/49.0 -- 2.90"/3.26" -- 1.6"/1.5" May: 59.4/60.4 -- 3.38"/3.71" -- T/T Jun: 69.2/70.1 -- 3.51"/3.26" Jul: 73.4/74.1 -- 3.37"/3.51" Aug: 71.8/72.5 -- 3.00"/3.25" Sep: 64.2/65.1 -- 3.26"/3.22" Oct: 52.2/53.1 -- 2.52"/2.52" -- 0.1"/T Nov: 41.3/41.3 -- 2.78"/2.57" -- 1.5"/1.9" Dec: 29.9/31.3 -- 2.45"/2.25" -- 9.7"/8.9" Annual: 50./50.8 -- 33.45"/34.29" -- 43.0"/44.6"

What the trees budding rapidly and some flowers being out I would say we're 2 weeks ahead of normal but about 4 weeks ahead of the last several years

(FEBRUARY 2021 continue) 2-17-21 a brisk -5F to start the day 2-18-21 gray skies as another snowfall moves in 2-19-21 another cold sunrise 2-20-21 now...a cold sunset 2-22-21 when deep snow begins thawing....its time to build things MARCH 2021 - Trace 3-1-21 piles and drifts dwindled away the first week of March, and only a trace fell all month APRIL 2021 - 4.5" 4-1-21 snow showers fell all day, dropping 0.1" both here & DTW but 1-3" in spots. Quite an Opening Day!

(JANUARY 2021 continue) 1-20-21 discarded Christmas trees with a fresh 1.3" of snow 1-31-21 we continued the theme of "inch at a time" snowfalls the 2nd half of January FEBRUARY 2021 - 22.7" 2-4-21: blinding snow with near zero visib dropped 3" in 1.5 hours. The quick hitting storm dropped 4.2" here & 4.1" DTW 2-5-21 cold sunset on fresh snow as deep winter descended on the great lakes 2-6-21 cold but sunny winter day 2-9-21 snow seemed to fall continuously in Feb, and this 1.6" fall glistened like diamonds 2-10-21 gray winter day contrasts the ice art of the Detroit River with the regular white landscape 2-16-21 near blizzard conditions and a very drifty snowfall on Feb 15/16 dropped 11.0" here & 10.4" DTW

Ive done it every year since the heyday of this board...so why not keep it up. Season total snowfall of 44.9" at DTW & 47.0" imby is slightly above avg...yet as always...it came in a non-avg way. Nov/Dec had average snowfall which was also perfectly timed, despite mild temps. Jan was a snow disaster despite nonstop gray skies and marginal temps (not warm, not cold). As is often the case anymore, Feb was this winters darling month, dropping lots of snow and featuring lots of cold. The snow melted rapidly as Feb ended and while March saw hardly any snow a late season April snow gave astounding winter scenes. NOVEMBER 2020 - 3.3" First flakes were Nov 1st (the first year in many that there were none in Oct), but 0.2" on Nov 17th started us on the board 11-22-20 a wet, scenic snow dropped 1.7" here and 1.9" DTW DECEMBER 2020 - 10.5" 12-1-20 the storm which began on Nov 30th ended up dropping 4.3" here and 3.9" at DTW, a great start to Dec 12-16-20 a long duration light snowfall made for great holiday scenes, by the end of the 17th over 3" had fallen 12-25-20 Waking up Christmas morning to fresh snow on what was bare ground is just perfect. By nightfall, 3.6" fell here with 3.0" at DTW. JANUARY 2021 - 6.0" 1-1-21 New Years was very icy

looks quite different outside today than it did yesterday.

21 at DTW this morning. Yesterday's dusting of snow had melted/sublimated...but I suspect some.of the rural spots that had remaining snowcover in the thumb were well into the low teens. DTX White Lake hit 14!

it really was! Flakes fell most of the game but that homer was the heaviest snow, the outfielders could not see anything and after miggy hit it he did not realize it was a home run (since it bounced off the top of the wall) because he could not see it.

It's part of the experience lol. Opening day usually seems to fall on a cold sometimes snowy day.

Snow flurries and snow showers all day today. Picked up 0.1" here and DTW however some of the northeast suburbs got as much as 1 to 3" in a heavy band last night. Very interesting scenes during opening day, must have felt brutally cold inside a ballpark with wind chills in teens.

When you posted that I would say not at all but just now I noticed the grass greening up some.

Feb was rocking but Mar has been as zzz as I can ever remember.

I know, very strange

I know, But still the numbers just look insane. I have said for years that Ann arbor radiates unrealistically. Just as Ypsilanti is the aberration for high temps.

What the hell...add one more day. Diurnal swings last 3 days Detroit: Mar 20 high/low 54/22 Mar 21 high/low 63/27 Mar 22 high/low 71/34 Ann Arbor Mar 20 high/low 56/15 Mar 21 high/low 65/19 Mar 22 high/low 70/25

Diurnal swings last 2 days Detroit: Mar 20 high/low 54/22 Mar 21 high/low 63/27 Better radiating spot...Ann Arbor Mar 20 high/low 56/15 Mar 21 high/low 65/19

The clear skies and dry atmosphere are really causing impressive diurnal swings in temps quite unusual for this region without aid of a strong front. forecast today 65. Even at the heat island..... Detroit: Mar 20 high/low 54/22 Mar 21 high/low ??/27 Better radiating spot...Ann Arbor Mar 20 high/low 56/15 Mar 21 high/low ??/19

the 1990s-early 2000s had lots of severe weather but snowfall was meh. The last 2 decades snowfall has really ramped up and severe weather is much more scarce. Which I'm ok with.

Exactly. It depends what is meant by green. The grass will green in April however green trees will probably be early may

So I guess Para gfs is still not the main gfs as it was supposed to be Mar 17th?