michsnowfreak

It's been below freezing for so long that today feels gross out. I hate seeing snow melt even tho a storm is coming.

Thanks. I will say this about DTX warning, they still talk about Thursday. Which is really looking more like a graze job of light snow. This is all gonna be about tomorrow and it's gonna come down to the ratios. Pretty solid model agreement, give or take some noise, on about 1.20" qpf with about an inch falling as snow. Temperatures will be steadily dropping as the storm progresses.

DTX upgraded to warning for 11-15".

I've been so busy focusing on my backyard but I just compared the GFS and GEM and those are absolutely incredible differences for snow amounts in Southern Ohio, Indiana and eastward for only being a few days out

Those are terrible maps tho. They were drawn up by interns at DTX who used Coop data which involves a lot of missing data so certain stations will show way lower snow than actually fell

I don't have time to look up every storm to see what howell got, but I can tell you mine since I started measuring in 1995. And I remember howell got slammed in some of them, others were southern county storms (but on the flip side howell had some I didn't get double digits, like nov 2015 or Jan 2008) Feb 15/16, 2021: 11.0 Dec 11, 2016: 10.9" Feb 1/2, 2015: 16.5" Jan 5/6, 2014: 10.3" Jan 1/2, 2014: 11.1" Feb 20 2011: 10.2" Feb 1/2, 2011: 10.1" Mar 4/5, 2008: 10.3" Jan 22, 2005: 11.0" Feb 21/22, 2003: 11.5" Jan 2/3, 1999: 12.0"

I've cracked double digits 5 times since Jan 1 2014. Cracking a foot is the hard part. Huge difference between 10" and 12" for some reason. That said tmrw should still be a nice storm.

Wednesday has turned into the main show here anyway. Or so it appears.

If it is snowing continuously, how can it not count as one event? Some of the East Coast snowstorms of the past they have counted as 1 event ocer 3 days when there has been like a 24 hour lull in between.

That's only thru 72. Thru 84 looks even better.

18z rgem looking great for southern MI. And of course IN/OH

The Southern row of counties in Michigan is golden right now.

I turned it on. Although, the nam still has big snows here

Filled the snowblower to the brim with gas, got my washer fluid and shoveled around the snowboards to make a larger measuring surface (not sure what we lose tmrw). I am storm ready!

Euro looked very good. Gfs is now the most south. I called it 2 days ago. The North South models swap.

Meh I doubt nearly everyone in the sub has seen a historic storm the past 18 years. Although I guess it depends what you deem historic. I did see the biggest single storm total of my life with just under 17" in GHDII. And my comment wasn't aimed at you directly. At 18z yesterday some were fretting NW trends now some fretting SE. It only has so much wiggle room. We are in a good spot. Onto the euro...

Absolutely. I would love a historic storm.. But I love snow. So how can I not be excited?

Too many freakouts on both the northern and Southern edge of the snow shield the last 18 hours. No one knows what's going to happen yet.

Which is why I definitely have a love hate relationship with models

Still some monsters on the ensembles. As always 12z will be a big cycle today

All good points. Again I'm agreeing with you, just disagreeing with the tweet. I will say this though about John Q Public. They don't exactly do the best job with measuring snow in the 1st place lol. Some of them inflate the drifts and others come up with the number so low I feel like they're measuring on the freeway median. It seems like NWSs in this area try to weed out those reports but I have read some of the pns from the East Coast storms and they include them all and even their own posters admit some of them are BS.

I only got 5" Nov 21 2015 when you and jonger got slammed. It was gorgeous scenic snow but a big miss of heavier totals (and I forgot I had a 5.5 snow in Feb 16 oops. I was going by memory lol). I've been measuring snow since 95-96. The only winters without a 6+ storm: 96-97, 97-98, 99-00, 03-04, 11-12 & 15-16

These are all valid points. But again. The tweet flat out said don't expect these amounts because of compaction. Again, whenever you see reports of a major lake effect snow event in Marquette or Buffalo or of an East Coast snowstorm they say how much fell. They don't say "but there's actually XX on the ground".

Here's my 6+ since our epic stretch ended after the winter of 14-15. 15-16: none (biggest 5.0) 16-17: 10.9" Dec 11/12 17-18: 6.5" Dec 13/14...9.3" Feb 9 18-19: 6.1" Jan 19 19-20: 8.5" Nov 11/12...7.0" Jan 20...6.0" Feb 25/26 20-21: 11.0" Feb 15/16

It's ridiculous. And Also a reminder. Regardless of how much ends up falling, this will be a long duration event. What that means is when you wake up Friday morning and the snow has ended, sticking a yard stick, measuring depth, and calling it total is underdone. Just like how lake effect snow and big East Coast storms always see the depth less than the total fall after 2 days, that's what we will see. You measure every 6 hours. Also have to take into account drifting as well as whatever old snow remains on the ground. Definitely have to be on your toes when measuring this one.