michsnowfreak

Interesting. So with your extremely warm December our flowers blooming? Seems like every year when we get a 45 or 50ﾟ day people are like "I saw a crocus" or something like that.

Doesn't bother me. We should be in for a nice powdery snowfall, after a season of all wet snowfalls so far.

At Detroit...December finish with an average temperature of 37.2, which ties with 1931 for 8th warmest December on record. While it was a wet month with meager snow (3.3) neither of these was top 20 territory. 2021 finished tying with 1921 for the 5th warmest year on record (52.7°) and also the 12th wettest year on record (39.99"). Snowfall was near normal at 42.2". This is an inch above longterm avg and ranks 58th snowiest (out of 141). A little bit of irony in this is the fact that everyone was freaking out about drought when it ended up being a very wet year. Another piece of irony... I have to double check but I think we technically had more record low temps than record high temps despite the warm year. I finished 2021 with 41.93" of precip and 43.1" snow.

Do the trees even lose their leaves lol?

I have seen Grand Rapids avoid a warning or watch when it's imminent with some excuse like, think this model's overdone, or it's gonna be a long enough duration to reach warning criteria, etc. Then they will turn around and issue another advisory for random Lake squalls that will merely dust much of the area outside the belts.

Actually adding to the discussion, they are always generous with advisories so it really seems silly and probably confuses the public. 1 to 3" snowfall snowfall gets an advisory usually usually. 4 to 7" snowfall? Let's call that an advisory too. Model shows 6 to 10", let's say 4 to 8" with an advisory and then upgrade to a warning if needed. We have had like 4 advisories already this season and they have all had vastly different outcomes.

GRR and DTX are notorious for being gunshy on any kind of Winter storm watch. I saw graphic that it's been almost 2 years since they issued 1. That does not mean there has not been a warning criteria snow, they just always love to go with the advisory then upgrade to a warning as needed.

I don't know if it is so much the cold more more so the orientation of the precipitation shield. There will likely be a thin area of ice in the transition zone as well. GFS and GEM are locked up with each other. The nam, like many times, is a far outlier but of course still never like to see that.

Under pressure...April 15, 2014. Detroit cruised into 2nd place for snowiest all time winters in late February or early March. Truly an epic Winter in the Southern lakes. However they were just a touch short of the 1880-81 record. That night, 1 to 3" of snow was forecast and 1.9" needed to break the record. And it was very publicized in the media. What a nightmare for the observer. You get a 2" snowfall what's going to happen, if the record is broken you'll have people accusing you of purposely breaking it, if the record is just missed you'll have people accusing you of purposely just missing it. Luckily like most of our things that Winter the snowfall over performed at 3.2" so it was an easy record clincher.

If you want to talk about not getting hopes up, I don't think it's ever a good idea to bank on the 84 hour nam, whether it shows a favorable or unfavorable solution for you.

Today's quick hitting snowfall puts Detroit at 10.4" which is actually just ahead of average to date (9.7"). Heavy snow was reported at DTW for several hours on November 27th, 2 hours today, and briefly on December 6th. Snowfalls on November 27th, November 29th, and today we're extremely scenic. And yet, it feels like such an empty start to the season. This is how you know you are a Winter/snowcover lover and it's not all about the rates.

2.0" here, 9.9" season. 1.9" at DTW, 10.4" season. Was gorgeous but it's already becoming drippy. The in and out nature of the snow shows in DTW hourly obs: 3pm: Overcast 4pm: Heavy Snow 5pm: Heavy Snow 6pm: Light Snow 7pm: Fog/mist

Snowed to beat the ban for a few hours. In and out like a flash. Picked up 2" of wet snow and everything is caked in snow. This is the 3rd scenic wet snowfall of the season....now time for some powder!

To be clear I'm not bashing cosgrove, i like him. i'm just wondering where he is seeing this alleged mid Jan thaw on the long range models. I have weatherbell and the end of the ensembles, as well as euro and cfs weeklies...couldn't be further from a thaw east of the rockies (at least in the North). If he feels they're wrong or whatever, fine, but we must be looking at different models lol. Not wish casting either because I actually like where I stand in the lakes for storminess...just wondering when that extreme cold to the west will bleed over for a longer spell.

It's only on AlekGoogle. Dusting at best.

He is making no sense. He keeps saying a brief cold shot around new years than a 10-22 thaw before a very cold end of Jan and into Feb. He is saying all ensembles show an extended Jan thaw. So....since the actual ensembles only go to Jan 13 (showing cold)....and the cfs and euro weeklies show cold...what is he looking at?

Snowing good here

Next year will be the earliest measurable snow.

Just so nothing is lost in the translation, I will never, ever, EVER root against my backyard/SE MI lmao. I just meant that with iowa's snowless start to the season I wouldn't mind a little bit of spread the wealth. And bowling balls, one of my favorites, do just that. Iowa in general seems to be a little colder and a little less snowy than here. If you want to be technical, Detroit has had above average snow 3 of the 4 past winters, the previous 2 just ever so slightly above average, 18-19 well below, and 17-18 well above. The cold is definitely coming for January, so let's hope plenty of white is as well.

It's a game the models play almost every storm lol. I actually thought of that the other day when the euro was very South. Hopefully we get some good bowling ball type storms this Winter.

2 of the past 3 winters have been good in Iowa but honestly before then, we cashed in far more than them. And we all enjoyed deep snow last Feb. Slow starts make everyone snow hungry but hopefully this entire sub cashes in as Winter clearly is ready to go on a rampage.

It's the nature of snow weenies on a weatherboard lol. Let the good times commence!

I estimated 0.7" here. Not sure if that's a little underdone because it was already raining and sleeting. An absolute slurpee. Slowly melted during the morning, now its gone. Season 7.9" here, 8.5" DTW. Had all the earmarks of an April snowfall however knowing that a wintry January likely lurks I won't complain. Trash December aside, it's crazy to note that Detroit has now seen measurable snow fall on 11 days and Chicago still waits. Although their wait ends tomorrow.

After getting snowfalls of 4.1" and 2.0" In November my largest december snowfall is 0.4". That should change in January. I'll say it again, I'm loving the look of the pattern for our area.

It is wherever the official site is at that time. Site location, surroundings, radiating, UHI all play factors but they are what the official data is.