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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    German house model sees it as well
  2. pasnownut
    thermal boundary a bit better here in NE and further south evolution would protect our precious levels if this holds. Again I'm extrapolating, but hope one can see the small changes that can have a difference when this get to the coast. 700's for my point 6z nooner. That's a notable shift (and a good one IMO). Is it noise, or the start of something classic....stay tuned.
  3. pasnownut
    IMO this is a good sign. 6z nooner
  4. pasnownut
    Enough guidance suggests the GFS Op was still a little off. BUT, if it was onto something, he was correct. and as I type this, the Nooner NAM comes in notably south from earlier guidance - which would suggest that if one extrapolated, would likely not have a transfter and be a clean A. We should see what evolution it takes by later tonight.
  5. pasnownut
    IMO at 5 days out, ENS guidance definitely holds value. From here in, that value will start to diminish, as Op starts to show us the way....right or wrong.
  6. pasnownut
    If ENS guidance has a clue...so would I. If Op is leading the way.....I'm rooting the B on (hr 114)- as the the coastal would collapse the column and save you and I from taint/moist options that said Op presents. That happens far enough SE of us to really save us IMO.
  7. pasnownut
    Great post. thanks for sharing. Still think SE adjustments are well w/in scope of options. Aint over yet (for us S and E folks, but if its a classic, well we know how that cookie crumbles.
  8. pasnownut
    Good catch. Started to see this last night. The A talk of some yesterday could now be replace w/ the letter B. transfer happens at 114. And for the record, I AM NOT suggesting that I'm more knowledgeable. Just helping prove your point.
  9. pasnownut
    yep, very likely while our pals N and W are cashin in....its how the good ones often roll round these parts. As long as we dont lose whatever we get....I'm cool w/ it.
  10. pasnownut
    You're on. I'll take that bet (in beers). Me thinks GFS op ticks east twds its parent ensemble twins...
  11. pasnownut
    I just posted a summary of Op vs Ens for GFS. GEPS a bit tucked, but still a really really nice spot for many in here.
  12. pasnownut
    Was just looking over Op vs Ens for GFS and yes, GEFS is a nearly perfect location (and SE of OP SLP near Chessy Bay). GEPS is in between Op and GEPS. Blended together, it would argue a slightly SE SLP of what 6z shows. Not too worried yet, but setting my expectations accordingly down here. If I were in state college to poconos, i'd be rather giddy right now.
  13. pasnownut
    Music to our ears.
  14. pasnownut
    Thought this cool.
  15. pasnownut
    Going to get my moms recipe and whip some up...
  16. pasnownut
    Friggin LOVE boilo. First year we've not had it for holidays in last 30 years. Thx Rona.....
  17. pasnownut
    Off of 1 really god set of runs....wow. Thats bold.
  18. pasnownut
    Ohh....thats dark Sorry....not our best work...this AM. Fortunately the boring period is looking to go away for a while.
  19. pasnownut
    Yeah there was a little "debate" this morning about going from boring to boom in a rather short period. . Dont waste your time looking....just boys being boys.... Thankfully the nooners helped to fix things a bit.
  20. pasnownut
    Yeah, it is a bit outta range for Ops, but as you said, its all about the trends, and they've been good today. I'm sure many can remember many a GFS op at range and being giddy, then to watch things go amuck...only for it to come back to something it saw 5-7 days prior. Lets hope.
  21. pasnownut
    That gives us souther folk some wiggle room. The mean really is an ideal spot for us. Especially w/ the look at 500.
  22. pasnownut
    Only concern is lack of HP up north. Couple models have HP off east coast (1030ish). If we can get that better placed, then the work BOOM comes to mind, and would likely wrap some cold in as well as strengthen the SLP and create quite a baroclinic zone....but thats me wishing more than anything.
  23. pasnownut
    Hey Matt....Good do see you. Always a good sign when folks like you are stopping in. You liking where were at? Nooners came in pretty close for 144 hrs out.
  24. pasnownut
    zoomed in for all to relish for a few hours.... verbatim...I'm toast and puddles of tears...but I know many iterations are likely to come, so I'll just enjoy the treands....and hope for a 25 mile jog east in the next 144 hrs.
  25. pasnownut
    I was thinking it was because "its only philly", and we are not supposed to be at the dance.
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