pasnownut

takeaway is that its not a boring pattern and one that has been advertised for some time. Just because a model doesnt show a perfect storm every 6hrs, that shouldn't dissuade any snow weenies....cause this upcoming pattern should give us a couple/few chances.

Well looky here....if this is boring pattern....sign me up.

This is the one I've been chirping about. It's been coming around. It should round the base of that stout 1042 HP and squeeze out some fun....me thinks.

Been watching the northernchateau webcams all afternoon. Impressive. Bunch of friends headed up next 3 weekends w sleds.

lol. Just posted the same sentiment. Smart minds........... or do they say.....ninja'd...whatever that means.

Yep. This one is something to watch. 500's relaxed a bit in NE, and if that continues, it should come further north. Its been bouncing around enough that a couple more moves, and we may have something.

GFS at 108 has a snowy look to it for us. Not sure I buy the qpf dist (to the north)....but that one can deliver the goods here. Pattern is locked n loaded for chances. Buckle up buttercups...

18z NAM at 78 made a "slight" move in 6 hrs....lol, and more adjustments to come. I said it yesterday and I'm sticking to it... I'm more interested in the midwest LP that is showing up on most guidance for the weekend. It's a few decent moves away from a light/mod event for us over weekend. It fits the pattern.

Looked like a 10 hr window above freezing prior to front passage.

and gave us this to watch instead. Much more plausible option that has support from CMC. I want a snowcane, but below is just fine w/ me. Ya know the saying....beggars...

wow...looks n ICE....

Yeah I'm seeing icesicles on back patio/railing and trees a bit. Not sure how long it'll hang on, but at least snow's gonna make it.

Now thats more like it... Looks a bit late for us, but plenty of time for changes. also fwiw, the trailer doesnt have enough time, and slides right of Va NC coast. Not a bit bothered, because as we've been seeing, its a rather active pattern setting up, so chances to score should be there.

agreed. Not sure how it would fizzle. Nothing in the atlantic to give reason for this to happen. Wonky is the word...

wow. This is really cool. I've wanted a drone, and now that you've shared this....i really want one. thx

welll at least we dont need to figure out what letter it is I saw that petering out as you suggested, and also thought it odd. Several models have it going bonkers for da fishies.. Not sure I buy that as open waters right now are ripe for development.

make sexual favor bets for the games....then it becomes a win win....just sayin

then we get....but who has more. It'll never end....and thats fine. Part of the fun. BTW, I shouldnt have "bragged" about our B team hangin tough...the A team then proceeded to trounce the B's. We are doing far better than expected. I'll take the positives and let things fall where they may. Eagles are playing well, but it will be tough to go deep into playoffs. Green Bay won the superbowl coming into post season at 8-8 so anything is possible.

I’m happy our B team is hangin with their A team.

18z gfs was plenty close enough for late week opp. And if that one doesn’t work there looks to chances a plenty. Will be shocked if we don’t score with a couple/few of them. 19 on way home from dinner in southern Lebanon county. 3 snowmobiles came in field and stopped for dinner. I was jealous but it was a bit thin for my liking.

0z Nam's quicker w/ onset of Sunday skating event, and further south w/ ice signal. Latching onto the cold already in place or will tomorrow go back warm? Mind you....In situs like this, this is NOT used for snow forecasts....I use it merely to see where the frozen vs wet boundaries...thermal profiles similar to 18z, so dunno what this really means...just looking for trends.. Now back to your beers/bevies or whatever suits you on a cold winters night.

18z Nam shows a slower onset to precip, giving our precious thermals a little more time to get scoured..and the maps down our way responded accordingly. Was easy to see on precip panels.

x2 I dont defend his pie hole...but I do defend his abilities. Sure he's gone off the rails a bit, but that doesn't take away his ability to sniff out a LR pattern. I'e learned alot from watching/listening to his "long ranger" over the years. So informative. Moreover...at least when he's wrong, he admits it and doesn't try to do side show antics to skirt it (like many do). He eats it...straight up (well he used to when I followed him). That dude knows more than any 10 of us in here, and yet takes shots from people that can barely read a weather map (and understand). Keyboard warriors like that really irk me. Do I follow him much anymore....no. I quit weatherbell a few years ago, but I respect his abilities regarding weather.

We need a sustained longwave pattern that looks sorta like below to get clippers. If you've watched 500mb pattern for last few years, we've not had sustained looks, only transient windows for them to occur. Also they are not very predicable and often pop up due to fast flow in NS.

Falls primarily as some kinda frozen for eastern 1/2 of state. Maybe a little drizzle at end for lower LSV. That could be a notable glaze if this look holds.