pasnownut

Could also be 50 miles west, but we still have enough ensemble guidance saying we are still in the game. Cone narrows today/night. Didnt stay up for GFS last night cause I still thought it had work to do to catch on, and knew the look wouldnt be great...yet. Seeing 6Z was looking more like its getting there.

While often discounted...when it shows continuity....we take. Gnight all.

Bingo.

wowzers. It's all about trends...until they go the wrong way....right. Gonna sleep on this and dream a little dream.

Germans have it a bit south. look at 540's. I dare say that this might be a good one incoming.

NAM looking good for sure...but before we start getting to chirpy...That HP to the north likely scoots and doesnt anchor, so that boundary will likely erode some, but yeah, verbatim an inland runner would hopefully be lower probs.

Slight jog West vs 12z.....correct?

I pointed out the 84 hr panels because thats when things are coming together, as that will have a notable effect to later panels (and why your coastal Carolina theory might hold some water. ) Until the deep south SLP position and 500's get better resolved, its premature to get "too wrapped up" no matter where one sits IMO (tempting for sure though).

Impressive cold w/ HP sitting on us. Verbatim I dunno how this cuts... And the big brother for the same timestamp. These aren't small differences.

As some earlier suggested an inland option based on ridge axis, if that's the case, the ridge/trough axis just bumped a bit E/SE...and closer to ideal for many here....

as Mag suggested, w/ antecedent cold being pretty stout...coupled w/ a 1037HP to the north....I'm just not seeing how the GFS depiction of it attacking/cutting west makes alot of sense (thinking physics here). That couplet would argue for a correction SE. It may be starting to latch onto that theory, or something else above my pay grade. Dunno.

then you'll like the GIF I just posted just above yours w/ the RGEM... Any further suppression out front, should help thermals as this starts to come up. What I posted was not perfect, but small move in the right direction me thinks.

thats about the best news I've had all day. Thx.

can see it a bit better here

Like I've been saying...I look for trends....even subtle ones, as we dont need much to have this deal be a crowd pleaser...even here in the LSV. SLP is SE and height field a bit better as you can see the 528 diving in. Doesnt mean really anything yet, but something to watch as we get closer

So if it is….what would you or others think IF both gfs and euro ens showing? At some point ops take charge but IMO we aren’t there yet?

Sittin in dr office. Gfs op leads the way fir the biggies. Hoping ens are still se or I’ll need a rubber ducky and not a shovel.

With so many moving parts/variables....I ask you or others....why not? I get the whole east west ridge trough thingy, its been used as a tool for decades, but if it were that easy, we'd have nothing to chat about. Furthermore, we're not asking for 500 miles of moving here, were looking for 50-100 that makes a huge difference in our backyards....so yeah I say why not. Lastly, as I've done for some time, I put my thoughts out and follow them up w/ my logic/reasoning, and I don't wait to jump on any bandwagons or to make sure I'm right. Thats not my jam or why I'm' here. Right or wrong, I hope peeps that read my garble know that I'm not afraid to jump on something. After all...as weenies, that's what the fun of forecasting is isn't it? Now for more fun....off to the dentist.

and one more to share. Op GFS Wonder Twins. Less diggy and one notably SE of the Op. Next panel shows even more separation. Ok now I'm done. Gotta run. Hope this helps.

looking over 500s and was a 2 contour closed 500 lp, you can now see it opens up slightly (this would argue for a slightly less wound up solution and should/could help thermal boundary for us eastern folks). Again, I'm not saying its happening, but as one knows, this is the time to look for trends...good or bad. Just a verbatim obs...I look at this timestamp because this is when our precious thermals start to erode, so I'm looking for S and E adjustments for my logic to hold. If it doesnt...I'm always learning and never profess to have all of the answers.

Getting there

Ens guidance should hopefully narrow things a bit more.

Agreed. If you parse over, you can see it "coming around" to a better coastal solution. Not there yet, but I saw enough +'s to not be too worried yet. That HP needs to anchor a bit more, and things will correct to a much nicer solution IMO.

Yes she does and yeah, raptors being raptors. Anyone who owns a cat that goes outside...can share plenty of these kinds of stories. Our cat was best hunter I've ever known....bar none. He liked to share harvests on our porch.

Icon snow maps incoming, but fwiw, its a forum crowd pleaser. I'm scarily close to taint, but cause I'm a team player, I'd sign for it just as it presents. Old timers told us many moons ago, that for the best snows....ya gotta smell the rain... Verbatim , I'd be testing that theory IMBY....but I'd need help cause covid still has some of my smell and has yet to give it back. I'll be outta here for the big guns...but keep em pointed in the right direction gang.....