pasnownut

The stuff I do for the forum to get snow........... I'll be at the cabin snowmobiling where there is a solid 12"+ otg so I'll not be complaining. Son has to stay home for snow removal (heavy equip operator), so thats the only bummer for me. I hope this sneaks back up on us and ya'll get pummeled. I'll be cheerin yas on from Tioga and look forward to more trackin next week.

As per disco above, they are discounting the model that many of us have been thinking deserves credit, the GFS. How funny is that?? This disco above is why I love this sport and why peeps should'nt speak in absolute terms when discussing storms. To see the "big dogs" struggling with this should give us a sense of calm...well it does me anyway, and makes alot of our disco in here legit IMO. Hoping todays runs tug this thing further west and get some of us back in the game. I wont be here, so it'll probably snow a foot.

ooof....someones looking to get trolled.........

Was out on client meetings, and it sounds like I missed a whole lotta nothing....just like my snow bucket.... Seeing the chatter about the Euro vs GFS, and yeah GFS (if this verifies, and probably will) has been pretty darn steady...and not in a good way for us.

oof. that IS harsh...But like you said, often typical when systems are still blossoming at or just below our latitude. Gotta root for quicker coastal.

I've not looked. My concern is going a bit against the suggestion of interaction of the waa snows w/ the arctic boundary and the bombing LP offshore. IF GFS is correct, I can see it presenting like a miller b where a jip zone is sandwiched in between and a tight gradient (as you suggested NAM shows) is a legit threat. Thats why I"m hoping NAM is correct w/ SLP placement as it has a better interaction because of closer spacing. Dunno...

fwiw, 6z GEFS has many members W of mean. Still says it aint over yet.... While its only slight, 50-75 miles can make a diff for easters in PA

I get it man. If we trend E today....put a fork in another one. NAM is notably west from most other guidance, and may be an outlier....or a trendsetter. We find out in next couple hours.

also a bit slower in progression from 6z Every little bit helps as this thing goes boom.

NAM still trying to figure out which bundle of energy to put it's L stamp on...lol it moves NNW from there to 200 miles off mouth of DE bay and at 75 is 100 miles West of 6z. This isnt done yet gang.

Guessing that's because of the arctic boundary pressing/interacting w/ coastal, and causing sharp cutoff. 500's are once again a bit more neg tilt and should help to tuck the LP closer to coast, but that boundary likely is culprit IMO

God I wish the NAM went beyond 84. We would likely all be a tad more giddy. Cuts back a bit on the NS precip, but makes up for it w/ a really nice SLP just off NC VA coast and is notably south of GFS. Verbatim it would give the coastal time to get crankin. REALLY like the look. Here's to hopin the rest of the 0z's keep this trend going.

It sure keeps hope alive...and hope the 0z's dont buck that trend.

Yeah that wouldnt take much of a shift West to get a bunch of folks in the game. I wont be up for the Euro, but were countin on you.

It was aiming to be a crowd pleaser. Such a tease.... Nicely tucked at 84.

or that orangish blob NW. Plenty of time so all options exist, but to your point, purples would be just fine....

Yeah, I'm not remotely worried about ratios yet. We need the storm first, but it looks like chances are increasing at something appreciable for some/many.

thats about 2 moves away from me staying home from cabin (snowmobiling) and riding around here.

Solid trends W today. All we can ask for at this juncture. at 0z my house had 4.3. Using this for qpf distribution purposes and not for perty colors.

Euro @96 slp is 978 and cranking off coast. Will be anxious to see what the Ens guidance shows for MSLP mean. Precip into eastern 1/3 of Pa

@90 Euro is a bit better looking at 500's, with a little more neg tilt. Surface close to 6z

Good to see you out enjoying it....and not stuck looking at models.. Enjoy.

In looking a bit deeper, this is also a good sign. Quite a few tucked/inland. This give us a chance at further corrections West. Verbatim it is east of the op by a tad, so we'll take whatever good we can get.

If only life could be filled with happy endings............

CMC at 90-96 is slightly quicker and NNE w/ SLP. at 96 it now has qpf into Allentown and I'm likely smokin cirrus. It really bombs out and is east of GFS SLP. Its in line w/ other nooners, and if nothing helps, narrows goalposts a bit. Didnt hurt the trends of today.