pasnownut

SLP going south of us is great, but antecedent cold and column was very marginal here. Temp went from 33 last evening to 37 this am, and while that may be part of the culprit, look at the 511 cams. Its basically a blue mtn and NW special (think I suggested that yesterday...or was going to anyway). Heck even Voyagers cams are basically brown. Another in a long series of nothing burgers, and moving on to the snowtrain caboose...my worry for the weekend is that we once again wait for cold and here in the LSV, that likely doesn't bode well for us....and post frontal round here....meh. Yes, I'm sure norther westers may get snow on snow this week, as they've been on the right side of where we all want to be boundary wise. Us SE'rs notsomuch. Is what it is. Sorry to be a debbie, but indicies/timing of stuff has been off just enough this year to consistently screw up our chances...and nothing in our upper air pattern has shown enough difference to suggest otherwise wrt this weeks picture IMO. Will be interesting to see what the red taggers attribute it to. I don't visit other forums (excpt the NE when I'm bored and in need of snow chatter), but I'm sure someone will tell us. Things never seemed to sync up. PNA was workable, but we still needed help from NAO/AO and didnt get it., Enjoy the snow for all that are getting it. Thx for the pics.

9:30 obs steady light snow ( of the non stick variety). Still nice to see.

I play hockey right (last night btw) off furnace hills (refreshing mtn). Middle Creek Wildlife preserve adjoins this area. Nice hiking/mtn biking...and hunting.

I grew up one town next (Ephrata) and this was my stomping grounds. My bro's inlaws live on peartown rd (next road) SE of this location. When I was a competative cyclist, I trained on those roads/hills. Some real gut wrenching climbs to be had. Small compared to big woods, but steep as heck.

Same here. 37 in akron and 35 in etown. Slushbombs mixing in here in etown, but mostly rain... meh.... Get your tickets for the last chance to ride the snow train for this Saturday. Morning GFS is already showing signs of folding for that one (here in LSV) as it's a mostly rain to backend snow showers deal....and we know how that works down here. Norther/westers look to get a last chance shellackin. Happy for them (and me as fortunately I'll be in clearfield/houtzdale area this weekend), so I hope to get to play one more time in the snow. What a shitty winter for us in the LSV. No way to polish that turd.

verbatim some ENS guidance says after this weekends trough lifts out....it's curtains as everything lifts north and we spring. After spending a day in the Bahamas (Cocoa Cay), I'm throwing up the flag and ready to end my quest for snow. I've got plenty to do to keep busy and other ways to have fun while waiting for next fall to start all over again in my quest for snow....

slushballs.....you make slushballs. I will say that Saturday looks like what may be our last chance at something notable winterwise. AO +2 and NAO +1 next week and beyond will put a pretty good sized fork in the winter, so let's hope we can enjoy some winter this weekend.

While I cant hit the like button, this looks like it should. 2m temps at 33-34 may be overcome for snow in the air, but getting more than a slushy inch is gonna be tough down here. This depicts that challenge for us LSV'rs.

Flew into MDT. NBD but while I know that a plane "creaking" is a good thing as it needs to flex....but at altitude its still a bit unnerving. Last night would have sucked to be flying.

Yep. We finally get the storm track, but not enough cold for us LSV'rs. HRRR is showing this rather well. I'm on that limb with ya pal, so if it breaks, your not alone. if it were a couple degrees cooler going in...I'd be a tad more excited....but I'm not.

Flying back from FL was a bit fun yesterday afternoon. Wasnt too bad, but last hour was rather roller coaster ish. Glad we werent coming back last night. Looks like we have a chance at some slushy accums tomorrow. Looks like a blue mtn north special incoming. Hope y'all enjoy your slushy couple inches (for those that get it). Car topper is my bar down here.

Yeah it looks like things are close enough to not write them off, but I'm not sure its sustained...more of a window of opp IMO. I see several cutters with post frontal cold...largely a repeat of what we've been seeing. Per ensemble guidance, several day period around green beer day might have some legs, as the cold dome favors eastern Canada, and can be tapped into, but it doesnt appear like troughing is deep enough in the east to get it done IMO. Most of us that have started to check out just know that sun angles n stuff start to show up in whatever we can eek out anyways, and that said, March needs to be a go big or go home kinda deal to make it last a little (well for me anyway). Tellies havent really changed much (not very favorable for NAO/AO for us easters with a neutral look at best), and verbatim, after that mid month window, they suggest a slam the door shut kinda look for us snow hounds as the AO heads for the true Arctic and warm boundary soars north. Spring will be springin for sure, and even if we see normalish, we all know its really tough after mid month, and if the tellies hold...were done/cooked after that. If trainers boy is right about April, it really doesn't matter to me, as the difference between 45 n rain vs 55 n rain....for winter lovers...who cares. While we may sneak 1 or 2 shots in, it is what it is...and I'll sure take em, but I'm not seeing enough to get remotely excited about. Keep searchin pal...you deserve a good one in your name, and I'll be happy to cheer you onto victory. I'll be glad to pull out shovels/blower...heck even sleds for one more go, but the realist in me is just writing this year off as damaged goods. Maybe next year....

a 384hr GFS map.........

Not sure I'm going w/ the worst because we've had stuff to track, but lets just say the digital snow slaughtered the actual snow (and yes, I know it usually does) - but at least when 6" is modeled and we get 3-4"....we still got something. This year natsomuch. The phrase "craptastic" should now be put into the dictionary of weather terminology.. Craptastic - 21-22' potential vs realized snow totals in the LSV.

If there was 3-6" of snow OTG, I'd be right w/ ya.....But to me personally....meh... I'm a snow hound. What else can i say? Hope those who have white, enjoy it for as long as they can.

snow cams in Tug/Lowville/Old Forge area look decent, but not sure how much. I'd guess they got 6+, but a webcam is not the most accurate way to measure..

seeing the landscape on drive in, I'd say it was rather uniform in my .1 accretion estimate. I'm sure the microclimate thingy could prove that wrong in certain areas, but Lanco was a run of the mill minor event.

Just confirmed Coudersport to Galeton areas received 2" of snow/sleet. Underperformed up there for sure. Sledders are NOT happy.

Just having driven 28 miles to work, it was a nothingburger....and I'd say GET TO WORK!!!

JMO's but neutral aint gonna cut it in March (we'll I guess you'd say it is)...cause we'll be getting cutters or wrong side of boundary as we need NAO to suppress the flow in the east. Believe me when I say I wanna be wrong.

Glad you guys are getting the goods sleet wise. Thats what I was hoping for down here. Had a little bit at onset, then ZR took over. I'd say we verified the WWA w/ prob .10 ice accretion, but driving into office was just fine. Only ice spots were bridges (typical), and they were just slush. Also looks like northern tier only got a few inches of snnow at best (as per cams that i look at). Couple guys are headed up w/ sleds....and I don't think they'll be happy. Maybe the next one gets us.

when you see a primary driving into NW Pa, I dont care what the models show, we torch ..... Yes, HP is in a nice spot, but without transfer sooner or notably south of MD line, its just not gonna work for most of us. I saw very little CAD showing on the models, and yes temps are marginally ok for onset, but no pronounced wedge showed, and its just really hard to get long duration frozen w/ SLP track like that, unless antecedent cold is stout. We just dont have that here. Yes, we are gonna ice for a few hours, but surface is marginal at best, so without sleet, I'd think zr will even be less than modeled until you get to MSV and points NW. if one looks at the 0z NAM, you can see much less snow even for northern tier counties. Not trying to piss in anyone's cheerios but it is what it is.

surprised to see 29 on way into office. actually saw about a dozen lost and lonely snowflakes while stopping for coffee. Not sure ground will be frozen when the plethora of wintery precip gets here, but I down w/ whatever we get. Roads were being brined when i came in as well.

I've been a skeptic for sure, but gotta say this one may trend in our favor. 0z Nam's went notably south. HP is doing its thing and mesos starting to show it. I didnt see much of a CAD feature going into nooners, and looking over thermal profiles we are on the edge down here. IF NAM is even 1/2 right, we have some winter varieties headed our way. Gotta say I'm a bit surprised...and happy. Bring on the sleet aleet...

withough snowpack zr is only good when frigid temps and snow follow it....otherwise....no thanks.