pasnownut

If HH runs continue the theme, I'd think so, even with any shift back NW, it looks like we are soundly in the game. Low end warning criteria is welcome when we've had what we've had to date. Even if goonie numbers start popping back on NAM and we get all giddy at HH, were all seasoned enough to not buy into any 12+ totals as one knows to take that times .6 for a more realistic number.

I wouldn't be too worried yet. There is the inevitable north shift that will likely come at Happy Hour or overnight runs. At the minimum a widespread event for many/most to get something is still in play.

Blizz, while we all may enjoy the event, this storm is for you. You did a great job of keeping hope alive. Now that this one is getting close and can see the runway lights...I'm hoping it doesnt crash while landing.

LOL. Nice to see us getting one while the last legit window is still open.

that was my worry from the night before. I think I suggested Slushballs... 18z NAM?? from evening prior went NW w/ best precip and that sent up my caution flag. Seems like as soon as 1 does that, the NW thingy ends up verifying.. It seems to be the LSV's Kryptonite.

Mind you, with the GFS, you needed to zoom in to call it an improvement, but when on the weather fence, one has to do such things to get their precious snow.... That's me being a full blown starved snow hound tho. No fogged glasses, just searchin for scraps.

If you zoom into the NE you'll note it came SE down around the M/D line and points south. Likely a byproduct of the slp being a tad SE of 6z and precip panels adjusted accordingly. This is why I look at the snow panels as they show a rough blend of thermal profiles, precip and even forcing in frozen and non frozen varieties. Not for the perty colors. Really wouldnt take much to get us in the game down here. Gonna be close either way.

i was looking at TT panels and saw a slight adjustment SE. 3k is money (if one believes it at this juncture.) A compromise of the 2 is a CTP beatdown for sure.

GFS ticked a bit better for LSV. Holds serve for CTP shellackin...

Yeah I saw it. It would really be ironic to likely end the snow season with a well timed and nicely placed event that is being shown. It's what we waited for all winter, and Mo Nature throws us a bone for the last hurrah.

Yeah it's got many troll lines out, and I'm sure many wanna bite. Still on sidelines down here, but it was a step in the right direction with time left for another bump or 2. Hmmmmm...

Yeah no doubt the "river hills" would hold the cold a bit better. As you know, my wife went to PM and elementary in Conestoga. When i road raced bicycles for Rich Ruoff (the Chameleon club), we hosted a race there. "the Tour of Mt. Nebo". What a gut wrenching road race let me tell ya. Arguably one of the hardest road race coursed I've ever seen (locally mind you). I derailed a chain on one one of the early climbs and was off the back, so I dropped out. 50 miles of climbs...lets just say I was pissed, but only mildly so. I was a sprinter, not a climber. Sorry to "derail" the thread. Small world.

yeah, sadly cold will be arriving after a good slug of precip has already fallen for many of us SE of the mtns. Looks like a blue mtn and points N and W dealeo again. State College is sittin pretty as per most maps. Good to CTP in the crosshairs of a nice bookend winter event.

yeppers..late friday night through saturday.

I’d say we got 1/2 of a car topper here. Sounds like elevation also played the role that many thought as chickies did better than lower spots. Yes it did flip to snow with better rates but better rates went largely north and some models showed that late yesterday. Once I saw that last night that was my worry that we were cooked. Oh well.

It’s all good man. Glad you are getting some opps this year. Yeah the southern/eastern edge is what I was chatting about earlier. Things have adjusted north inside of 36 more than a few times of late. With no HP to help, my worry was that we didn’t have sufficient cold at lower levels. Couple that with the last minute adjustment north and here we are again. Good luck this weekend.

Glad to hear it. I like the potter club site just cause they have the live pics. That would've been my choice as well, but we didnt want to steal craigs (potter county site) thunder. Obviously we're trying to promote the area for more than just sledding. We also sponsor the trout tourney in May. Thats a big big draw (sometimes I think more than sledding) to the site. Enjoy

lol. Until about 2 months ago, I was webmaster for, (and with the help of a tech gal) built the Pa Grand Canyon website that you peruse. Too much on my plate, so i gave it up to folks w/ more time on their hands. if you look at old trail condition reports...you'll see some signed by Nut...yep....its me. I know all of the crew that run the club and am friends w/ many of them as I'm still a member...just not webguy.

been gazing at the potter county snowcam site off an on this morning. Yeah they are at 6" and still thumping. Likely a good bet for another thumpin this weekend. bottom of mountain below my place in Gaines. I'm sure I could add 1-2" to this (as often the case in normal events as I'm at 2275'. http://swedenhillsnocam.com/PAGSC2.jpg

Yep. Timing and the look from 10,000ft (literally and figuratively) in areas like ours is extra critical, while our normal N and W crew have a little more wiggle room in their favor to get frozen. While I'm bummed, this year is more typical of what i remember growing up and even in more recent years as we rain/slop while HBG N and W cash in. With that said, it's a little more normal, which makes it a bit less painful for me. Like you said, maybe next year.

It would be great to score down here. We need one. While I'm doin the debby, I hope for enough changes for something down here. I'd need some convincing though. And as i type, we now are back to snow in etown. Decent size flakes, and a tinge of white starting to show. Nice.

SLP going south of us is great, but antecedent cold and column was very marginal here. Temp went from 33 last evening to 37 this am, and while that may be part of the culprit, look at the 511 cams. Its basically a blue mtn and NW special (think I suggested that yesterday...or was going to anyway). Heck even Voyagers cams are basically brown. Another in a long series of nothing burgers, and moving on to the snowtrain caboose...my worry for the weekend is that we once again wait for cold and here in the LSV, that likely doesn't bode well for us....and post frontal round here....meh. Yes, I'm sure norther westers may get snow on snow this week, as they've been on the right side of where we all want to be boundary wise. Us SE'rs notsomuch. Is what it is. Sorry to be a debbie, but indicies/timing of stuff has been off just enough this year to consistently screw up our chances...and nothing in our upper air pattern has shown enough difference to suggest otherwise wrt this weeks picture IMO. Will be interesting to see what the red taggers attribute it to. I don't visit other forums (excpt the NE when I'm bored and in need of snow chatter), but I'm sure someone will tell us. Things never seemed to sync up. PNA was workable, but we still needed help from NAO/AO and didnt get it., Enjoy the snow for all that are getting it. Thx for the pics.

9:30 obs steady light snow ( of the non stick variety). Still nice to see.

I play hockey right (last night btw) off furnace hills (refreshing mtn). Middle Creek Wildlife preserve adjoins this area. Nice hiking/mtn biking...and hunting.

I grew up one town next (Ephrata) and this was my stomping grounds. My bro's inlaws live on peartown rd (next road) SE of this location. When I was a competative cyclist, I trained on those roads/hills. Some real gut wrenching climbs to be had. Small compared to big woods, but steep as heck.