pasnownut

NAO/AO are not looking very good, which is my worry. EPO going - should help ridge axis out west, but PNA going - offsets and suggests zonal at best (which doesnt do it in Morch), w/ likelyhood of SER being close enough to play spoiler IMO. If Im missing something, tell me where you think I'm off base. I/we be glad to hear your thoughts. I'm no kid, but I'm still learning. Thx boss.

I picked the 2 that look best to me. I, like many down here in LSV often are left waiting for the cold, and while we usually get it, its a few hours late (and when best qpf has already scooted by. That said, the GFS has 2m temps that have frozen in our forecast, but 850's are right on the cusp of IP vs Zr here. 700's look ok I'm pulling for the sleetfest, but am wary for sure. by 48, you can see we are cooked. Still enough time to convince me/others that it may happen though.

Well said man. Well said. FWIW I want you to be wrong as well....but think you end up close to really right. I 80 and N is best area for troubles with best likelyhood a decent winter weather being rt6 from Tioga/Bradford counties and east (assuming the cold gets deep enough in those areas). If it doesnt, then they would likely deal w/ more ice IMO

It's definitely trying to suck me back in.... HP doin its thingy up in da land of da Quebecians Just not sure how much further south we can get thermals for us Southern folks. I'd take a sleetfest as a big win down here.

Hey, I hope it can put a jewel back in it's broken crown....

Y'all know that I'm not afraid of being "that guy"..... Just callin it as I see it (right or wrong), but the timing of the whole shebangy has just been off....and the result is typically a close miss at best. My hopes from a couple weeks ago, was that the next reshuffle coming up would lock in better in the east, and w/ wavelengths shortening as spring approaches, that we'd get some chances, but IF MJO heads into 4/5/6 coupled w/ the other indicies previously mentioned, it just doesnt scream potential IMO. Mind you, I'm no expert whatsoever, but just using my know/edge (and wee bit of skill that I may posess) from past years. That said, yes, we can still score as the wavelengths start to change, but on a weather map, that in my mind is nothing more than what we've been seeing most of the winter IMO, as we really need the NAO/AO to help us as we get into March but that's not looking likely as of now, so I'd think SER/WAR will likely be a more stable and unwelcomed feature IF the tellies verify as I'm seeing them. Lets hope for changes...and quickly. Feel free to disagree or pick apart my thoughts. (I'm headed to client so I'll be back on after HH).

Thanks bud. We've been told that very statement from those we've discussed w/. As of today, masks are now optional....one step closer to normal.... I was wondering how we'd look with the mask tan lines...

We were informed that its best to get the drink passes, so I'll never know until a manager approaches me about my "consumption problem" Hope you find that chica you are looking for as well...otherwise....i'll send pics.

really needed to look at the girl in the middle to see what she was doing. Not sure many/any women ever did "that" while stalking me....

CMC went from an I80 N special to a rt6 special.... and for most here.....that's nothing special.

Really need that 1041hp to anchor for us to get your wish to come true. if it scoots....were toast.

Dont mind at all bud. Royal Caribbean out and back from FL. I'm not a beach/deep water/ton a sun...and especially sand guy....short of that I'm really looking forward to it . Joking aside, we are long overdue for a trip of substance, and YOLO, so....what da heck. I booked it for my wife for Christmas present. Going w/ her cousin/spouse. We always have a great time no matter what we are doing, so I'll roll w/ it.

and fwiw, I'm hoping to be wrong in the worst way.... I'm headed on my first cruise late next week, so if y'all are looking for a shellackin....3/3-7 is the time for it to happen. i missed our last snow at home, so it would be fitting to continue that theme as well....

I'm pretty much convinced, that with the flow we're in it just wasn't meant to be this year. Yeah, we've had a few events, so most should not be totally bitter, but we've basically had 2 snow events here in the LSV, and I'm just not seeing enough appreciable change to get cranked up. Yes, EPO going - helps the ridging out west, but the transient nature of how things are moving across the conus, just doesn't let things set up. Obviously we can eek something out here and there, but we really missed our chance back in Jan when the cold held. Over they years, some have used the phrase "atmospheric memory" and IMO that has been a consistent theme this year. MJO in 3 is not a kiss of death temp wise (as Mag suggested in one of his great disco's), but seemingly keeps SE ridge close enough to play spoiler on any attempt at a decent longwave pattern from getting established (unless I'm misinterpreting the correlation-let me know if so Mag). AO staying + and NAO + but trending - beyond first week of march is really getting late in the game (assuming those looks hold). PNA also looking - as we get into March. That could be a byproduct of EPO, but with little help in here in eastern NA, I'm cautiously pessimistic that we south of 80'rs may be shot in the arse for something other than backends and bootlegs for our winter crumbs...

Yeah it looks like the the Friday event looked several days ago..... rinse...repeat.... Only + is that there are multiple chances, so maybe we hit 1 or 2 before some of us check out more than we already have.

Looks like its still hammering in much of CTP land. Cameras north and west look nice. Hoping to see some flakes today while outside playing w/ wood (go ahead...have fun w/ that ) Need boundary to continue seeping south for next week. Could be a nice event if we get that to happen. Looks like some tracking ahead. Cool.

Yeah it looks like NW'ers do better w/ qpf for Thursday. Headed to Philly Thurs night to see Darius Rucker, so I'm hoping the rain is light. Also looks like later next week is starting to be the time where chances are popping up, as the boundary seems to sag far enough south for us to get a few more chances as we head into March. Blizz was chirpin about this and it looks legit ens guidance shows March looking like March....not Morch. I'd be down w/ a couple weeks of winter before I go on weather sabbatical.

I still have decent snow cover over here. Didnt go poof, but it did disapear in lower coverage areas. I'm enjoying every minute of it.

Here you go.

we actually have enough to take sleds out if I wanted to. Still about 3" otg at my house. Will get a pic cause some probably think I hit a tree and hurt my head on snowmobile this weekend. Yeah this pattern has sucked, but all of the fishies that love snow must be happier than a clam. Looks like a boring couple weeks comin up to kill the snow pack, even up north. still a stout 12" on the ground at the cabin. It is so dense that we saw the deer walking on TOP and not sinkking through. That'll be there for a while. Glad for those who got some white stuff today.

You know its ugly when you come to a weather board.....and scroll through the last couple pages to learn about basketball (which I personally have about 1% interest in on a good day). Have a great weekend talking "pumpkin ball" talk...lol. I like that analogy. I'm checkin out. I hope we can talk weather next week - and if not, well that's just how this craptastic winter rolls....carry on...

Thing about March that makes it so unpredictable, is that you've got plenty of cold in the NH and plenty of warmth in the SH, and when we are stuck in less than favorable patterns, it becomes a "guaranteed" reshuffling of the deck atmospherically as wavelengths shorten and they start running into each other. It can be fun for sure....or more craptastic. How it plays out....??

I'd rather we do what we can winter wise for rest of feb, then just close the winter curtains. That snow angle gets tough in Morch

that big cutter for late next week will be a lock.... frig this crap. I'm headed to the cabin for what may be my last hurrah at winter. They've had solid snow cover for almost 2.5 months so northers are probably ok w/ the end coming, while some of us southers wait for it to start.

If youre looking to me for magic, I'll apologize in advance.... No matter what shows at 12z, cash is right.....plenty of changes left and w/ progressive theme, wont likely know till Friday IMO. To that end, I'm just casually looking until Friday, and if its there, abracadabra....if not POOF