pasnownut

Yeah I saw them. Central NYS and up into NE, 40-50+through the run. Next weekend was an eastern Pa event and verbatim a NJ storm. Its a big one for sure tho.

Tell the Yargers I said hey.

and as soon as I saw the separation, that's the big problem as the SS has no reason to climb and will likely scoot of Carolina coast. Arggh

You are the Eveready Bunny of optimism. I'm getting a wee bit nervous about "my" storm. Looks like its following the lead of "trainers" storm....lol Early AM runs just pushed it way south. Flow at 500 has been flattening and losing the troughy look from a couple days ago and may be the kiss of death. Not giving up yet for sure, but its concerning.

I too am excited at "the look", but your point is a valid one.

for the models that have it, they sure do have a doozy. I'm not convinced its a "pattern changer" either. 850 temp anomalies show plenty of blue and while not as deep, still enough to get plenty done in Feb. Last look at tellies wasnt too terrible either. Only "bad" one was PNA heading -. Could be overcome by AO that still looks to be slightly - as well.

Yeah I'm not picky about what kind of snow....just want snow. My hunch from a couple days ago still has a shot at something. Hope so, and if not, well just another way to fail. Me thinks a nice little WAA event would ease the pain of us snow starved ones, while those that have concrete base just get a refresher.

What makes you think that??

Anything's better than nothing....right?

13 at my casa in brownville... That's still plenty cold for me. I'll leave the jostling for position on the cold board to you norther/westers. Have at it ya whackos.. Truth told cold isnt bothering me nearly as much as the last couple years, so I'll just enjoy it....especially if the Tuesday deal can work out for us. GFS still says keep an eye on it. ICON not far from something either..CMC came on board w/ the idea as well. I think via surface panels, they are understating the cold, as you look at 700/850's, we should be ok. Oh, and just for fun, go look at the 384 GFS. That's one hellava frontal boundary. Even though it likely changes a bunch ot time, thats impressive to see a 1055HP. TGIF.

I like the logic....really do. Now just go tweak the models a bit.... It would be nice to get an ol fashioned "surprise" snowfall.

lol. Step away from the ledge....its just weather.... Not every year is an easy one.

Place your bets..... GFS - close enough to throw down some house money.... Euro - taps table

We can lock that one in I'm sure.... Starting to look like a year where clean n simple aint gonna work...gonna need to get creative w/ shoehorns n curveballs to get it done. Ughh

LOL. Thanks for the read.

CMC wants none of what the GFS is tokin on. SE slider theme continues if correct.

Was just at a clients in Lawn (yes, that's the town...no typo) and its almost snowglobish out there. I'll drive slowly on way home, so I get my snow fix in. Nooner GFS looks decentish for Tues. A little diff in how it gets there, but it gets snow up here. Hoping the SS SLP can keep its act together. You can see it pop off VA coast, but still has a progressive NS and it scoots NE from there. ENS not really seeing what the Op sees, so keep that in back of your mind as we "track" this one. I'd say it presents more like an overrunning deal. We'll see, but some of us don't really care if maps look perfect....we just want snow, so I'll take it.

I'm older than you pal......I'm just good...(kiddin)

Icon is getting closer for next Tues. NS got way out in front, and its now riding the boundary..but its close enough to add to the "watch list". Would be great to see the GFS hold its look. We'll know in a bit.

NWS can say they verified.....lol Very nice.....very jealous. Enjoy

Yup. Might even go in the books at .something ....lol

Hey....it's your turn....Mo nature just leveling the distribution out a bit. Looks perty out the window. You'll like the look when you get home. I'm just hoping for white when I get home.....any white.

parking lot getting white here #caving...lol Snowing nicely here in downtown Etown. Yeah Tuesday sure isnt oozing potential, but NS/SS vorts seem to be close enough to watch (a la GFS). That could easily fade (like Icon/Euro already think). Just putting a little faith in the model that seems to have a decent nose to sniff em out this year and that look sorta fits the pattern.

Not the first time we've seen the transition be a little late...is it? lol It was a concern from early on, and set my expectations accordingly, but put my hopes in CTP seeing something I/we didn't w/ column being cooled sufficiently would work out. NBD....onto the next one...whenever that is. (still hoping Tuesday comes around).

Driving into office I saw mashed taters in Akron, to all snow in Lititz to starting to slush up in Manheim, to getting white and roads caving in Etown (slushy kinda caving). I share that because its basically a East to West drive in Lanco and shows the difference in what 25 miles can do w/ what one sees. I see it ALL THE TIME. I'd bet I barely get white as the transition likely started too late. Etown will be the winner again. 35 in Akron to 31 by the time I got to Etown.