pasnownut

today was the day that it should. I've got nothing to lose at home (well a 10' patch in backyard), so NBD for me

I'm telling ya....its out to score a coupe, or it has an affinity for eatin crow. I really like that its eekin south again (so did NAM) as well as shows a quicker changeover here. Hoping the Euro comes in a bit better as well and we might actually have more than consolation snows.

Nah....just a great place to visit/vacation. I never expect anything close to what they get, but make it a priority to go up often enough to get my snow fix (when I dont have it down here). While this pattern sure is tricky, knowing your climo and how things role in ones hood should make it easier for one to set expectations when looking at maps. That keeps me in check and rarely out of house money when placing bets.

One benefit, is that for those who have been on the snowy side of what has fallen, it has been retained (and hopefully enjoyed). You and I have lost basically 4 weeks of cold to brown ground....that is a kick square in the kahunas.

Absolutely. It's why when I post, i often give my "why" statement....to validate my reasoning right or wrong. Hell, that DT post that tango just put up at least has DT suggesting WHY he thinks the cold will be a challenge. Right or wrong, at least he gives reasoning. Some people need to be reminded that you don't have to "like" what someone says, to respect what they put out, as long as they explain the WHY. Wow...I don't care for DT, but still defended him.....see?? This is one tricky ass deal coming up, and some will have smiles and others heartbreak... I know that Lanco typically sits on the heartbreak side, and doesn't do well wrt these type of deals, but think many in here have quite an event possible w/ a plethora of frozen to contend with. Today/tonight we start to draw the lines (and hope they dont look like some of last nights .

Your always hot pal....

37 was my high for Tuesday. Thought it was to be around 40-42?? Ground truth, it really doesn't matter much. It's been plenty cold, and the diff for those who have the concrete base is not much. Even thought its early Feb, you're ALWAYS gonna have a bit of melt off. It's normal and should be expected and not "part of a new normal" IMO. Unless someone has data to the contrary....the reality is that for those that have a concrete base, many areas are 1-3" thick which is highly susceptible to some meltoff. Go up north where the concrete/snowpack is legit. ONLY meltoff is places that have been plowed.

you know I want the GFS/Euro to be right wrt SLP and precip being advertised, but once again, just north and west of HBG will likely be a notably different event than down here south of the mtns (thinking frozen vs non frozen). As I've stated for the last 2 days, we need the cold press to get here quicker and SLP to slow a bit (MBY does anyway). 4" of snow has not really been showing on anything other than GFS down here (and as we all know, TT maps dont break it down well, so likely much of that frozen is IP/ZR). Just watching boundary layers/thermals tick back NW is a kiss of death for LSV. Just cant polish that turd pal. For us down here, it is what it is and has been all too often. If I lived in Magville to Voyagerville, I'd be watchin like a hawk....and I'm rootin for all peeps N and W of there to get the goods.

wow...that sure is quite the "mix". Hope you guys get hammered. I'd love me a good sleetfest w/ a little snow on top before it shuts down. Not likely, but not impossible at 2.5 days out.

Great (well not really) post bud. Well done.

LSV was never really in this one. We were teased early on w/ SE ticks, but nothing near enough. No surprise at all. I'da been happy for a bit of consolation frozen stuff, and still think it happens a bit. I said it a yesterday, this is and always one to watch from pit to poconos and pts NW. Norther and westers rejoice once again. We'll get one sometime...this year next year...who knows. Time for some who are longing for it, to get in car n roadtrip a bit. Northern Pa likely to have 15-18" snowpack after this event. They'd be happy for your business....go enjoy the winter wonderland up there.

It's been a challenging year for tracking vs Mag's season to date totals... I like what mag posted, and as I suggested earlier, the key is to get that boundary as far south prior to go time. I'm largely in trouble here in the LSV w/ some back end taint to snow, but were I in true CTP to NW'sers, I'd be watching this like a hawk. With the qpf and trajectory that is shown, whomever sits on the cold side, is going to be in for a nice event.

i agree w/ canderson that timing rarely works for cold press wrt events like this. That said, the way to the promise land is for the boundary keep pressing (like 18z NAM is ticking away at), and get boundary far enough south that we dont need to wait. Also would like to see the SLP slow a bit, which give us time for boundary to eek south.

0z 12z

But it did come south a bit, and joins camp w/ GFS and NAM. Snow maps show a tick SE and now has KPIT and Wspt now getting some frozen. 0z was extreme northern tier and NW PA event. Based on last few events, GFS seemed to lead the way, so I'm gonna hug it, till something better (not hotter) comes along.

Add CMC to the steppin backwards camp.... GFS and NAM both stepped forward, and hoping for the win.

Verbatim its a far cry better than it was a short time ago. It's a step in the right direction.

I'll take me some GFS...please and thanks. ICON stepped back a bit. A tad more ridging out front or less press from frontal boundary. Too busy to deep dive, but thats likely what happened. GFS is getting really good...IF IF IF it continues to press the boundary.

for MBY I dont like this one bit..... But thanks for sharing. I live underneath that blue dot in lanco, but closer to the 2 and this represents what i've been seeing.

and as I perused the overnights....through the end of the runs, I'm not seeing any big sustained changes... Looping throuh Ens guidance, outside of a couple brief warmups, the 2m temp anomalies show much more blue in the east. Here is the end of the run, and yes, I know it can change, but everyone was chatting up a pattern change and the window closing. if it does, it's a brief one.

It's winter, and If I don't have anything to track, I've got no chance at snow.... I'll keep trackin thank you..... Most in this forum have had snow on the ground for a few weeks now, and for some well over a month - to 2 months in northern tier. While I realize much of the fun is the thrill of the chase, If i had what some of you have, I'd be just fine w/ where things are. Thats just me though. I like the look of winter. As I "get around" between my job and my travels north, I've seen what others have, and I'm jealous. Hasnt been great but this beats the hell out of a shutout, close the blinds pattern...if you truly are a snow lover. JMO's

But to that I say show me ANY model that has not been lost at some point this season. Ask a red tagger how frustrating it's been . I bet they'd agree that nothing has come easy wrt forecasting here in the east this year. No wonder us amateurs are frustrated. Down here in Lanco, decent snows w/ staying power have been all around us....and we get car toppers. It's still mostly brown down here. I'll just hope n pray the 6zGFS snow map is 1/3 - 1/2 right and I'll be giddier than all hell. 15" OTG this weekend at the cabin. It's DEEP DEEP winter up there. Snow has been on the ground since last weekend of November up there.

Go pull the snow map up for this weekend as well as beyond. Dont have coffee in your mouth. You'll be cleaning up your screen. Fun to look at.

Bringing the boundary closer to PA (in this large scale regime) might be the way to getting the goods. Just need that 540 to stay below (as currently depicted) and we might be fighting over who gets the most.

verbatim the gfs after brief warmup would arguably be the most tracking we'd be doing this winter. LIne em up....... and lol