pasnownut

Glad you guys are getting the goods sleet wise. Thats what I was hoping for down here. Had a little bit at onset, then ZR took over. I'd say we verified the WWA w/ prob .10 ice accretion, but driving into office was just fine. Only ice spots were bridges (typical), and they were just slush. Also looks like northern tier only got a few inches of snnow at best (as per cams that i look at). Couple guys are headed up w/ sleds....and I don't think they'll be happy. Maybe the next one gets us.

when you see a primary driving into NW Pa, I dont care what the models show, we torch ..... Yes, HP is in a nice spot, but without transfer sooner or notably south of MD line, its just not gonna work for most of us. I saw very little CAD showing on the models, and yes temps are marginally ok for onset, but no pronounced wedge showed, and its just really hard to get long duration frozen w/ SLP track like that, unless antecedent cold is stout. We just dont have that here. Yes, we are gonna ice for a few hours, but surface is marginal at best, so without sleet, I'd think zr will even be less than modeled until you get to MSV and points NW. if one looks at the 0z NAM, you can see much less snow even for northern tier counties. Not trying to piss in anyone's cheerios but it is what it is.

surprised to see 29 on way into office. actually saw about a dozen lost and lonely snowflakes while stopping for coffee. Not sure ground will be frozen when the plethora of wintery precip gets here, but I down w/ whatever we get. Roads were being brined when i came in as well.

I've been a skeptic for sure, but gotta say this one may trend in our favor. 0z Nam's went notably south. HP is doing its thing and mesos starting to show it. I didnt see much of a CAD feature going into nooners, and looking over thermal profiles we are on the edge down here. IF NAM is even 1/2 right, we have some winter varieties headed our way. Gotta say I'm a bit surprised...and happy. Bring on the sleet aleet...

withough snowpack zr is only good when frigid temps and snow follow it....otherwise....no thanks.

NAO/AO are not looking very good, which is my worry. EPO going - should help ridge axis out west, but PNA going - offsets and suggests zonal at best (which doesnt do it in Morch), w/ likelyhood of SER being close enough to play spoiler IMO. If Im missing something, tell me where you think I'm off base. I/we be glad to hear your thoughts. I'm no kid, but I'm still learning. Thx boss.

I picked the 2 that look best to me. I, like many down here in LSV often are left waiting for the cold, and while we usually get it, its a few hours late (and when best qpf has already scooted by. That said, the GFS has 2m temps that have frozen in our forecast, but 850's are right on the cusp of IP vs Zr here. 700's look ok I'm pulling for the sleetfest, but am wary for sure. by 48, you can see we are cooked. Still enough time to convince me/others that it may happen though.

Well said man. Well said. FWIW I want you to be wrong as well....but think you end up close to really right. I 80 and N is best area for troubles with best likelyhood a decent winter weather being rt6 from Tioga/Bradford counties and east (assuming the cold gets deep enough in those areas). If it doesnt, then they would likely deal w/ more ice IMO

It's definitely trying to suck me back in.... HP doin its thingy up in da land of da Quebecians Just not sure how much further south we can get thermals for us Southern folks. I'd take a sleetfest as a big win down here.

Hey, I hope it can put a jewel back in it's broken crown....

Y'all know that I'm not afraid of being "that guy"..... Just callin it as I see it (right or wrong), but the timing of the whole shebangy has just been off....and the result is typically a close miss at best. My hopes from a couple weeks ago, was that the next reshuffle coming up would lock in better in the east, and w/ wavelengths shortening as spring approaches, that we'd get some chances, but IF MJO heads into 4/5/6 coupled w/ the other indicies previously mentioned, it just doesnt scream potential IMO. Mind you, I'm no expert whatsoever, but just using my know/edge (and wee bit of skill that I may posess) from past years. That said, yes, we can still score as the wavelengths start to change, but on a weather map, that in my mind is nothing more than what we've been seeing most of the winter IMO, as we really need the NAO/AO to help us as we get into March but that's not looking likely as of now, so I'd think SER/WAR will likely be a more stable and unwelcomed feature IF the tellies verify as I'm seeing them. Lets hope for changes...and quickly. Feel free to disagree or pick apart my thoughts. (I'm headed to client so I'll be back on after HH).

Thanks bud. We've been told that very statement from those we've discussed w/. As of today, masks are now optional....one step closer to normal.... I was wondering how we'd look with the mask tan lines...

We were informed that its best to get the drink passes, so I'll never know until a manager approaches me about my "consumption problem" Hope you find that chica you are looking for as well...otherwise....i'll send pics.

really needed to look at the girl in the middle to see what she was doing. Not sure many/any women ever did "that" while stalking me....

CMC went from an I80 N special to a rt6 special.... and for most here.....that's nothing special.

Really need that 1041hp to anchor for us to get your wish to come true. if it scoots....were toast.

Dont mind at all bud. Royal Caribbean out and back from FL. I'm not a beach/deep water/ton a sun...and especially sand guy....short of that I'm really looking forward to it . Joking aside, we are long overdue for a trip of substance, and YOLO, so....what da heck. I booked it for my wife for Christmas present. Going w/ her cousin/spouse. We always have a great time no matter what we are doing, so I'll roll w/ it.

and fwiw, I'm hoping to be wrong in the worst way.... I'm headed on my first cruise late next week, so if y'all are looking for a shellackin....3/3-7 is the time for it to happen. i missed our last snow at home, so it would be fitting to continue that theme as well....

I'm pretty much convinced, that with the flow we're in it just wasn't meant to be this year. Yeah, we've had a few events, so most should not be totally bitter, but we've basically had 2 snow events here in the LSV, and I'm just not seeing enough appreciable change to get cranked up. Yes, EPO going - helps the ridging out west, but the transient nature of how things are moving across the conus, just doesn't let things set up. Obviously we can eek something out here and there, but we really missed our chance back in Jan when the cold held. Over they years, some have used the phrase "atmospheric memory" and IMO that has been a consistent theme this year. MJO in 3 is not a kiss of death temp wise (as Mag suggested in one of his great disco's), but seemingly keeps SE ridge close enough to play spoiler on any attempt at a decent longwave pattern from getting established (unless I'm misinterpreting the correlation-let me know if so Mag). AO staying + and NAO + but trending - beyond first week of march is really getting late in the game (assuming those looks hold). PNA also looking - as we get into March. That could be a byproduct of EPO, but with little help in here in eastern NA, I'm cautiously pessimistic that we south of 80'rs may be shot in the arse for something other than backends and bootlegs for our winter crumbs...

Yeah it looks like the the Friday event looked several days ago..... rinse...repeat.... Only + is that there are multiple chances, so maybe we hit 1 or 2 before some of us check out more than we already have.

Looks like its still hammering in much of CTP land. Cameras north and west look nice. Hoping to see some flakes today while outside playing w/ wood (go ahead...have fun w/ that ) Need boundary to continue seeping south for next week. Could be a nice event if we get that to happen. Looks like some tracking ahead. Cool.

Yeah it looks like NW'ers do better w/ qpf for Thursday. Headed to Philly Thurs night to see Darius Rucker, so I'm hoping the rain is light. Also looks like later next week is starting to be the time where chances are popping up, as the boundary seems to sag far enough south for us to get a few more chances as we head into March. Blizz was chirpin about this and it looks legit ens guidance shows March looking like March....not Morch. I'd be down w/ a couple weeks of winter before I go on weather sabbatical.

I still have decent snow cover over here. Didnt go poof, but it did disapear in lower coverage areas. I'm enjoying every minute of it.

Here you go.

we actually have enough to take sleds out if I wanted to. Still about 3" otg at my house. Will get a pic cause some probably think I hit a tree and hurt my head on snowmobile this weekend. Yeah this pattern has sucked, but all of the fishies that love snow must be happier than a clam. Looks like a boring couple weeks comin up to kill the snow pack, even up north. still a stout 12" on the ground at the cabin. It is so dense that we saw the deer walking on TOP and not sinkking through. That'll be there for a while. Glad for those who got some white stuff today.