pasnownut

Not very thick IMO....

Morning gang. Closing in on 6” here in houtzdale. Enjoy the storm. Headed for pheasants.

what you dont get in qpf....you make up for in ratios...and your's will be easier to clean up.

Now we should feel better about this thing coming. My concerns of it headed back NW are shot in the arse...and I'm happy for it. I'm out for the weekend. Enjoy whatever we get. Looks like a good thump here.

thats not a great look for us down here. I'm sure we'd take, but SE looks dryish. Dont shoot me, but its an underlying fear for tonights runs (I wont be here, so thats why i said it as I'm about to check out for the weekend) .

In a progressive base state this is a good event IMO. Need more things to happen to get a stall and those cards just arent on the table here as NAO is heading further + and events like this can happen on bookends of such episodes. Signs of it headed twds neutral around April fools day, so maybe Mo nature could make fools of us winters largely over after this weekend folks.

No HP anchored....so NO brakes..... Sorry, but what we are seeing now is really best case IMO. Trough axis is decent, but lack of HP, progressive theme all keep this one from being much more than it currently is being depicted. That aside, its a potentially nice widespread event that I'd take all day and every day.

this may help, but as Mag just suggested, its scootin right along, so deformation bands would likely be short lived, and IMO best in the Poconos where elevation and dynamics could squeeze a bit more white gold out.

was mentioned on morning disco. Yeah, this would be a nice way to close the books for some. Not likely for us as its pretty paltry w/ qpf and would favor norther/westers. By the time it gets here its drier than a popcorn fart.

If HH runs continue the theme, I'd think so, even with any shift back NW, it looks like we are soundly in the game. Low end warning criteria is welcome when we've had what we've had to date. Even if goonie numbers start popping back on NAM and we get all giddy at HH, were all seasoned enough to not buy into any 12+ totals as one knows to take that times .6 for a more realistic number.

I wouldn't be too worried yet. There is the inevitable north shift that will likely come at Happy Hour or overnight runs. At the minimum a widespread event for many/most to get something is still in play.

Blizz, while we all may enjoy the event, this storm is for you. You did a great job of keeping hope alive. Now that this one is getting close and can see the runway lights...I'm hoping it doesnt crash while landing.

LOL. Nice to see us getting one while the last legit window is still open.

that was my worry from the night before. I think I suggested Slushballs... 18z NAM?? from evening prior went NW w/ best precip and that sent up my caution flag. Seems like as soon as 1 does that, the NW thingy ends up verifying.. It seems to be the LSV's Kryptonite.

Mind you, with the GFS, you needed to zoom in to call it an improvement, but when on the weather fence, one has to do such things to get their precious snow.... That's me being a full blown starved snow hound tho. No fogged glasses, just searchin for scraps.

If you zoom into the NE you'll note it came SE down around the M/D line and points south. Likely a byproduct of the slp being a tad SE of 6z and precip panels adjusted accordingly. This is why I look at the snow panels as they show a rough blend of thermal profiles, precip and even forcing in frozen and non frozen varieties. Not for the perty colors. Really wouldnt take much to get us in the game down here. Gonna be close either way.

i was looking at TT panels and saw a slight adjustment SE. 3k is money (if one believes it at this juncture.) A compromise of the 2 is a CTP beatdown for sure.

GFS ticked a bit better for LSV. Holds serve for CTP shellackin...

Yeah I saw it. It would really be ironic to likely end the snow season with a well timed and nicely placed event that is being shown. It's what we waited for all winter, and Mo Nature throws us a bone for the last hurrah.

Yeah it's got many troll lines out, and I'm sure many wanna bite. Still on sidelines down here, but it was a step in the right direction with time left for another bump or 2. Hmmmmm...

Yeah no doubt the "river hills" would hold the cold a bit better. As you know, my wife went to PM and elementary in Conestoga. When i road raced bicycles for Rich Ruoff (the Chameleon club), we hosted a race there. "the Tour of Mt. Nebo". What a gut wrenching road race let me tell ya. Arguably one of the hardest road race coursed I've ever seen (locally mind you). I derailed a chain on one one of the early climbs and was off the back, so I dropped out. 50 miles of climbs...lets just say I was pissed, but only mildly so. I was a sprinter, not a climber. Sorry to "derail" the thread. Small world.

yeah, sadly cold will be arriving after a good slug of precip has already fallen for many of us SE of the mtns. Looks like a blue mtn and points N and W dealeo again. State College is sittin pretty as per most maps. Good to CTP in the crosshairs of a nice bookend winter event.

yeppers..late friday night through saturday.

I’d say we got 1/2 of a car topper here. Sounds like elevation also played the role that many thought as chickies did better than lower spots. Yes it did flip to snow with better rates but better rates went largely north and some models showed that late yesterday. Once I saw that last night that was my worry that we were cooked. Oh well.

It’s all good man. Glad you are getting some opps this year. Yeah the southern/eastern edge is what I was chatting about earlier. Things have adjusted north inside of 36 more than a few times of late. With no HP to help, my worry was that we didn’t have sufficient cold at lower levels. Couple that with the last minute adjustment north and here we are again. Good luck this weekend.