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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    Yeah i wasnt focusing on MBY, but thought CTP and west might be liking the potential. I'd rather not lose any snow as well, so yeah just a frontal boundary and setting up something to follow would be great. It really did ramp up the qpf, which would kill our precious pack, but I was just not seeing enough spacing for something to hang back/stay separate. Plenty of model runs left and if that could happen, then all the better.
  2. pasnownut
    Don't look now, but there's a chance for some mood snow late weekend and early next week. Couple models trying to link up some energy.
  3. pasnownut
    12/25/02 was just a Christmas miracle. 12" when they were calling for like 2-4, and then kept upping totals as the dreaded changeover went from delayed to denied. Was just a thing of beauty and a rarity when short term/nowcasting went in our favor. I spent that morning watching kids n gifts w/ one eye, and 56k modem slooowly downloading radar and NWS updates w/ the other. The good ol' days.
  4. pasnownut
    12/29 looks to have some potential as well. Nice to see as well, but I'm getting ahead of myself as were waayyyyy out there. Stronger signal for fun times ahead is good enough for now.
  5. pasnownut
    12Z GFS is a perfect depiction of what i was mentioning earlier and having the LP ride the boundary. Go look at 144-160. It's almost like they let me draw the maps how I wanted it to happen. That'd be a crowd pleaser for sure. Here's the money panel but go look at the hours above. Happy weekend all.
  6. pasnownut
    ain't that the truth.
  7. pasnownut
    If the trough axis were more SW/NE oriented, then I'd absolutely be rootin for Pa's scenario, but as depicted, the N/S orientation will really deepen the trough, favoring areas S of us.
  8. pasnownut
    While that's a way to get the goods, I'd say it needs to ride the boundary. If it hangs back too far.....suppressed can also be the outcome as the frontal boundary is stout and can overwhelm the pattern pressing the boundary too far below us. Failing is much easier than winning isnt it? Always seems like 12 ways to fail, and 2 ways to win.
  9. pasnownut
    staying power....we hope. Decent shot at a white christmas down here. If you look at 6z, verbatim we'd be eatin rd 2 or 3, or finishing off the last few dozen cookies Christmas night while watching the snow fall. I'm down w/ that.
  10. pasnownut
    i took the day "off" and snowblowed 6 properties....yeah I feel my age. i couldnt imagine doing it all w/ a shovel. Muscle relaxer knocked my arse out and i slept like a kitten.
  11. pasnownut
    @showmethesnow great writeup. Just parsing over overnights, and while not perfect, there surely is s steady stream of opportunities thru year end (and beyond) Will gladly take my chances w/ what the pattern is showing. 6z gins up a coastal that pops on the frontal boundary. Not buying the evolution....but would take the result.
  12. pasnownut
    Just spent the day snowblowing. Great event. Glad this looks to stay around for a while and hope we can be tracking in the next few days. That Arctic front for Christmas looks to mean business. Hope we can use that for our next chance at padding totals.
  13. pasnownut
    Thx psu. Hoping this pans out.
  14. pasnownut
    You putting much weight into 0z NAMs?. They look decent for part 2. I’m always Leary of wraparound down here but it’s been modeled for multiple cycles even down here. I’m spitballing 2” addl before it pulls NE of us.
  15. pasnownut
    NAMs all the way....
  16. pasnownut
    Checked the MA forum and many are flipping back to sleet and snow. Just a little longer....
  17. pasnownut
    You are seeing addl accums not total.
  18. pasnownut
    Since the NAMs had a decent go at this event...let’s let them wrap this up.
  19. pasnownut
    Yeah I didn’t see and ledge jumpers gettin ready here. We’re a bit better than that.
  20. pasnownut
    Radar building nicely to our sw. that was worry #2. It looks like she is also flipping back as well. nan it is sleeting unbelievably hard right now.
  21. pasnownut
    Snow mixing in again here as well. Not much but it is mixing in again. Seeing Md wins have shifted well south gives me hope that backend is legit.
  22. pasnownut
    Thanks bud. Wasn’t sure. I’d take .8” sleet with a couple inches on top. You think you’ll get to 18”? From mesos I think you’ll be right close.
  23. pasnownut
    Wonder how well it does with factoring sleet in?
  24. pasnownut
    You and I both. Sleetin sideways over here.
  25. pasnownut
    That’s my bar. 10” of some of this and that and I’m fine.
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