pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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He's a great met and I miss his posting. You follow him on twit? Boy if he's right, I've no complaints about what we get in Lanco. Seeing the NWS 12'' probs and Carlisle at 71% is pretty stout and something rare to a weather weenies eyeball around here. Just think about that. Hell, I'm at 54% and giddy about it.
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I thought the same when i read his obs. slush bombs starting to mix in 30 minutes ago on way into ETown. 37 in Akron to 38 in Lanc, to 36 in Etown said car thermo.
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Yeah thats for sure. It like Christmas is coming early to CTP.
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last blizzard of 16 we were from a week out. Like this one...its a very unsettling and unusual feeling as were all too used to the jog NW inside 24, but reading ctp's disco....as well as NWS, its really a boost for ones confidence. On thing that has been stable is the thermal profiles, and for that reason, i'd wager the uptick in confidence.
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I'm like trainerboy, and dont have a problem w/ mixing as it does help for pack retention, but sleet/zr/r after an inch or 2 when 25-50 miles NW is in double digit totals is something were all too familiar w/ down here. It really is a kick in the gonads, BUT, if we can get to warning levels then mix....I wont complain as much. Ya'll dont know how many times i've looked to the NW knowing that was snow falling, while getting pissed on by mo nature at my house.
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6z gfs a bit better for true central as well. Still keeps me scarily close but I’d sign right now. Early morning trend is your friend for them. I’m getting nervous (like I always do after seeing too many big snowfall maps being posted 3 days out.)
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Not panicking yet but 6z NAM made the first notable tick NW and really throws the goods into true central (as I’ve been expecting) but quietly hoping wouldn’t happen (for mby).
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Sweet Jesus!! That 36” is 5 miles SOUTH of my house. I have wiggle room.
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As soon as they show up with consistency, you know NEPA is well placed.
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CMC also has LP tucked a bit more and you can see the qpf response well west into central Pa.
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Agreed. For my back yard I like what the nooners show but don’t expect them to verify.
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12k and 3k starts the nooners off nicely and looks more robust in qpf distribution. 3k really amped up. Verbatim entire subforum gets an appetizer tomorrow. Adams to Allentown stripe of best snow. Today’s a big day. Hope this is the start of a good one.
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6z gfs less robust with qpf distribution but it did bring better amounts into NC mtns. It’s one run and is slightly colder so I’m taking that as a +. I think ctp is staring down the barrel of a snow cannon. Just need to figure out where it’s going to be aimed.
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That what just a fantastic read. All weenies need to read this 2x and save it.
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Qpf doesn’t match surface map imo but It’s better for Central pa so in true weenie fashion we take...not toss.
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Verbatim SC Pa to C NJ is raked by deformation bands and would have best chance at the B word.
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Wow. That’s pretty. This is the one canderson needs to keep.
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Gfs ticks SE and gives eastern pa a beat down.
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0z gfs MSLP a tick SE for #1. Surface still really close but I’ll take that and hope boundaries follow in next few runs. That thermal boundary request is me wishcasting tho so buyer beware.
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And even if we see values drop it doesn’t mean we flip on a dime and go full on winter. Imo best we can hope for it low magnitude 4/5/6 or COD so that any AO/NAO opps down the line can do their thingy and let us play.
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That’s last nights run pal. Para comes out after GFS
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Go parse over 3k and you’ll see 540 line NW of18z and best accums lift NW a bit. If that trend continues the gfs could be correct wrt r/s. Still really close down here. Will know soon. Nice to b tracking again.
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Call me snakebit. Yeah it does historically do better w skill scores but GFS has been eeking NW and has me a bit “on edge”. Seeing NAM CMC and euro SE of GFS is nice for sure. Hoping next few runs to see the GFS come SE a bit.
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I scrolled thru the panels and thought the same. Need to make sure #1 doesn’t blow up much more as it could hurt # 2s potential.
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I really think you sit in the catbird seat. I’m concerned about LSV and taint or changeover for number 2 down here. I need boundary a tick SE for me wrt #2. also as long as spacing between 1 and 2 stays the same it shouldn’t change much w/ # 2 s potential. Any less spacing and dynamics get robbed a bit.
