pasnownut

and i dare say a necessary evil unless you are into suppression depression. Scary i know, but we might need forcing to bring things up this way as battle zone might be too far south. Guess we'll know in a few days.

Ops are still just not buying into the Ens runs, but I look forward to them correcting in the coming days.....we'll we hope anyway.

Just remember that a while back, LR guidance suggested this big cutter would reshuffle the deck to a good look, and that seems to be on track. And yes, if this is the January thaw....I'd be giddy if this is as bad as it gets before we go deep winter..... Seeing the effects of the SSW coupled w/ the NAO/AO, it is rather exciting to see the players coming back to the field after a long hiatus.

Yeah, you've been sniffin out the upcoming period and it is great to see a ridge bridge straight from the hinterlands of the north. Been a while since we've seen that on the maps and it was nice to see yesterday. -pna isnt scary w/ a stout -nao as progged so bowling balls across the conus is fine w/ me. A little help w/ WAR is also fine as it feeds the machine to the north, but its a scary ask as it's cooked us oh so many times and seems to rule the weather roost here in the east. Gonna need that a bit as the STJ is pretty far south IMO. It's just really refreshing to not be in a shut out winter, and yeah, seeing chances starting to pop up is pretty cool. I also saw the coastal pop for this weekend, and said something in the MA forum about it yesterday. Looks a tad late for most, but maybe a little in the E/NE regions as it gets cranking. Pocono ski resorts will approve. Yeah Blizz....you better clean out your cache....cause you may be filling it up w/ snow maps in the coming weeks. IMO its a frequent small/med kinda period, but maybe we can score a notable even as well. Any snow is welcome to me....so its all good.

Looking at 12z GFS for Friday and seeing trough going negative is letting the trailing energy pop a coastal just east of us. Looking just beyond, i'd dare say it looks acceptable so far. I'd not toss it, cause its the best look we've had in a couple days and its only 5 days out. Small step in right direction.

seeing how its soon to be "state run" it needs approved by the bosses.... I'm just KIDDING.......I hope. LMAO

the fast flow on most guidance seems to really be the problem, we can get anything to lock in and work in conjunction w/ each other (like normal long wave stable patterns that snow lovers dream of). That said, its likely a timing thing and something may sneak up in short/med term guidance. While Im bummed, it still feels like winter, so I'm ok w/ it. Was in Phillipsburg this past weekend and they had a rather solid/dense snowpack that is going NOWHERE. Lots of walking through the woods and quite a few times had snow up to my knee. Just wish we had some down here, but it's all good. My son was up north and said he saw more snowmobile activity than he's ever seen. I'm happy for the businesses that typically struggle, and hope this helps a bit, as this year, I'm sure they are far below in cash reserves due to the mess of the last year. I don't envy them.

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2. Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it. Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down. NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up. I hate that.

nah...next week still has time, and 12z's keep it close enough. just like for this weekends non event, pay attention to the NE. IF we can get a little more relaxing, that will help to get us the lattitude we need for this thing to come up and visit. My gut says it can happen. at 500, you can see it lifting out a bit. CMC show how it stays south. Looknig at the CMC, it looks simialr to ULL issue we have for this weekend. Hope that goes poof in upcoming runs. Bear in mind, that as NAO relaxes, you may lose thermal boundaries. Soo many ways to fail it seems.

Morning and TGIF! Takeaway from overnights and early morning runs suggest we have a shot at next weeks event. GEPS more bullish on getting southern/eastern crew into some action. GEFS also improved, but still not as excited. That said, they both came north, so thats a small victory, and we need the north trend to continue, because this one has some work to do, but I still feel better about our chances....not great...but better.

was on the road today....glad i was, as I'da spent waayyy too much time tracking NOTHING. poop is right. Happy hour at least shows that there is a storm once again, so there's that.

Yeah I also have an affinity for dark winter days, but they are far better when the landscape is white.

Please ........NO. There can be enough debby'in when we are gettin pooped on by the snow gods. And from what I can tell....you prob couldn't be like that if you tried...but please don't try to prove me wrong....lol I'm just happy for it to be looking and feeling like winter (even if its only snowpiles down here - normalish for piedmont areas)

Well...for those that were looking for a little sumthin for the weekend....head to southern VA. Just a blah weekend in store. We are out of time for for any surprises that would be substantial enough to get much more than cirrus up here...and that's looking like a stretch. Good news is that 1/12 system looks to still have a shot for us but 500s still have a progressive (southern) look to them (on op and ens guidance), thanks to Mr. NAO, so we've got some work to do to gin one up for that timeframe. Still beats the hell outta last year....especially for those that have snow on the ground, as it looks to be going nowhere for weeks to come. Good for you. I'm still trackin, but the scent is weak right now....but listen for the bark, cause you may hear one in the coming days.

and if the GFS only went out to 408 hours.......we'd be prepppin for snomagedon. fwiw in real news GEFS ticked NW again for weekend non event. Not sure how much weight one puts in ens run at 78hrs but as a true weenie, one puts ones faith in the model that gives best snows right? May just be noise...dunno?

Ice skating anyone. Posted just for fun as its been a while since colors like this have shown up in our region.

@showmethesnow all i've been doing is paying attention to the 500 panels (NS and heights). That NS energy did lift out a bit yesterday, and that coupled w/ slightly higher heights was what I was looking for to give this thing a chance. IF thats got any merit, today into overnights needs to show it. Also to Mags point, the block seems to be a bigger player than I thought it would be, so gut says any shifts would be subtle, but man I'm pulling for your post to verify. Like you said, its really more of a MA deal, but as us SE Pa guys are back to normal w/ snow....we'll take what we can get. I'm staring at my pile of chips.....but knuckles hit the table for this round. Lets see what the dealers say in a bit.

Yeah I was hoping getting that NS retro look out of the way might help for this weekend, but your right, blocking looks to keep this one well under us (a bit to my surprise, but hey, that's the fun in this). Still wouldn't surprise me to see DC and pts south get a little something this weekend. It has ticked back NW a bit, but were pretty far left of the goalposts for that one. Onto the next. The d7 and d12 panels you posted are rather droolworthy and what snow weenies dream of. If they verify, it will be fun times for sure, as its been a while since we've seen some clean A's come at us from the south. That would surely open the door for them. Lets just find something to jam into the door to keep it open as long as we can. Glad you got into the goods this weekend. Weather World said Sus. county got 14" this weekend. Still waiting down here.

congrats. Daughter is at cabin in Tioga and suggests 2-4 up there. She's not into the weather like i am, so be kind on the measurement

Parsing over the overnight runs, I see showme's write up and agress that the the NS is the problem, but i also have a problem w/ the evolution at 500 (GFS and Para), as you see NS energy retrograde/back in from south of northern quebec to NY/PA border. loop 500's from 90-150 and you'll see my point. I think that is the main fly in the snow ointment for this system, and I'd suggest watching that bundle of energy. As the NAO is getting established (big red blob), the energy would likely round the edges of it, and not back into it. Hope that makes sense. If we clean that up, our storm has the chance to gain latitude and offer some of us a chance at snow. I just dont see how we go from progressive to blocked up in a week. Just my spitballing for the day.

I wouldnt write friday off yet. Pattern is just getting established, and I cant envision how we go from cutters, straight to suppression. That would be more of a concern in the following waves as the NAO starts to show its teeth. Just my hunch. fixed. I can't envision

I think we have a decent shot at Fri/Sat system as most guidance has it below us, honestly 500 panels at 12z look much cleaner on grampy GFS where Para is 2 pieces that don't really phase. I still think we have a shot at something measurable, and as we all know mid month seems to be shaping up for more chances...we should have more in the pipeline. Only concern is that we still seem to have LR guidance on ops showing the cutter risk, and I'm not really sure why as ens guidance has a rather decent look for systems to continue come at/under us. Just an observation and trying to wrap my head around why. In summary yeah we should have some stuff to chat about and that's loads better than most thought only a few weeks back. I think this upcoming period of fun is brought to you by the all to elusive acronyms SSW and -NAO. Enjoy your snow today. Just rain here, but we might get a little if rates help the column like some are seeing. Not expecting it, but we are close enough here in the LSV to hope for a bit of fun. Ground was white this am and hope it will be later today. Thats my win bar. Chat more this week as I've enjoyed my christmas break "away from the world". Happy New Year to all. Nut

on and off flakeage here in Lanco, but nothing of substance Hoping for some action later. Love snow on Christmas, especially this year. Merry Christmas gang!

56 in Lanco. Couple spots of white left I the yard. They will be gone by morning. hoping the best for all low landers. wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and may your ground be white. Mine won’t.

Potential = Something you can’t shovel.